josu

kraytinprime said:

singularity said:

If all the major stock markets are down, why do some people expect Apple to only go up?
That's not manipulation it's investors getting nervous. 
But I'm sure sog will still have a rant about it being all timmys fault.

Look at Apple's peers.

Netflix up 2.6%
Google up .32%
Amazon up .40%
Facebook up .40%

Apple DOWN 1.40% today
Apple DOWN almost 30% in the last few months
Apple UP only 1% since Sept 2012.

Tim Cook has allowed Apple to lose almost $200,000,000,000 in value because he refuses to address bullshit rumors. Thanks Tim Cook.  Thanks for making my portfolio go down $40,000 in a matter of months. 

Sorry but blaming Tim Cook for your loses is unfair. He didn't force you to buy/hold the stock, you are an adult that have your own opinions and decisions, live with them or get out of the stock and leave easier. My bet is that your rationale said Apple was the most profitable company ever so this have to be of some value to the market, and is the correct bet, only that in the last six months it hasn't prove true, so what, long term if Apple hold itself the valuation will get up, as it did in 2013. So calm down, and look other side, is what I do in this kind of moments. On the other hand don't forget that maybe the rumors are true and Apple has hit an speed bump. My bet is that is not happening maybe in the iPhone is, but other areas are booming, as this report shows. CEOs, CFOs and COOs know for sure and far in advance the future results of a company much better than any analyst so, calm down, those guys in their last 10-K to the SEC made a Capex forecast for FY2016 of 15 billion, 30% more than last year, that's the best lead indicator of what will happen, so sooner or later this must be either corrected downward in next SEC filings or reassured and will get baked in the stock. Till January 26, hold your breath, look other way and relax. Is better for you. I tell you because my Apple shares are a big part of my portfolio, and my "Paper loses" are far bigger that yours, at least double.

wizard69 said:

sog35 said:

Agree 100%

Either Tim Cook needs to hire some new people who can articulate Apples vision and counter Wall street FUD or he needs to resign.

2015 was the most profitable year for any company in the history of man. Yet the stock is down 5% for the year. The main reason is because Cook failed to control the message of the company. The entire investing community views Apple as a one trick pony with a trick that has peaked. This is so far from the truth.  Apple has so many current and future revenue streams to easily double revenue from this point.  But Cook has failed at convincing Wall Street that iPad, Watch, AppleTV, ApplePay, Apple Car, Beats, Apple Music, ect have a bright future and can add hundreds of billions in future revenue.

Amazon CEO was able to convince Wall Street that Cloud services would be huge. But Amazon cloud generates less than $1 billion in profit. Apple Watch profits dwarf Amazon cloud. But Cook refuses to release Watch figures so Wall street gives Watch zero credit.

Something is wrong with Apple's investor relations. I can't even speak to a live person.  I call the number and all you can do is leave a message.  I left 3 messages and no one called back. I mean what the fuck.  I have tens of thousands invested and they can't even return a fucking phone call?

Wall Street totally disrespects Tim Cook and pisses on his face. Various analysist have flatout called Tim Cook a liar and a cheat. Other said he was breaking SEC rules and manipulating numbers. WTF.  You never hear this kind of shit directed at Google/Amazon/Microsoft CEO.  Only Cook. Whatever he is doing, he is doing it wrong.

Cook is doing fine. The problem is people like you are ignoring the huge risk in investing in Apple which is effectively a one horse company at the moment. Until Apple can balance the income from things associated with iOS it is effectively a one trick pony. If iPhone crashes the so too will everything associated with it. IPad, Watch, ApplePay, Apple Car, even Beats all depend upon iPhone being a success into the future. This isn't rocket science by any means, you just need to wake up and smell the coffee. As for your ten of thousands invested, you really shouldn't blame Apple for your bad choices. Seriously think about what happened to Nokia, Rim and even Motorola all effectively one trick ponies.

I disagree with your "one trick pony" theory. Nokia and Motorola decided to get that way selling and dismantling all their legacy business something that Apple didn´t made. On the other hand RIM, Motorola and Nokia "ponies" where disrupted by other "ponies" with better thicks. Do you see anything disrupting the current smatphone status quo? because if you do, you are very very wise guy.

And let me go a little bit further, not only your examples showed a much more myopic approach in their business, but Apple ant least is trying to introduce and reinvigorate other business units like iPad (with the Pro), the AppleTV (with the fourth generation and the App Store, Apple Music, ApplePay. So is obvious that Apple don´t bet the bank to the iPhone fate, but to the ecosystem, even more, tries to reduce its weight in their revenue. A much broader act than a "One trick pony" as you can see. That it success or fail time will tell. Anyway I insist. Is Wall St. Incredulity that Apple performance is here to stay than a proven inhability of the company to do it again, that drags the stock, not the facts.

Maybe one day you will be right, but remember all your three examples where disrupted by another device that do the "trick" better. And right now there's no other device that can substitute the current smartphone.

entropys said:

It certainly is a mystery why apple doesn't get the sort of love Amazon gets from analysts. I think MBAs just don't want understand Apples business model. They also have think they understand Amazon.  If you don't try to own all the market, to them you are in trouble.
Also, tech analysts learned that their trade at the feet of tech analysts who wrote Apple off in the nineties.  

Also, that the stock declined ev n as buy backs occurred, doesn't that show the directors are just wasting money that could have been used for something useful?

Sorry but don´t you think is absurd that Wall St. values Amazon at more than 900 P/E and thinking it will continue to grow and at the same time thinks that the company with the biggest profits ever is something to be disdain? Profits and potential profits is what drives Wall St. long term, so if Wall St. can´t believe that Apple has beaten the profits till recently reserved to oil companies in boom times why are they so sure this kind of profits will be the "new normal" for AMZN of GOOG?

I give you the answer, because they are WRONG, in both cases.

About the buy back program it started when the stock was at half right now, so you can´t say it had been a waste of money. We don´t know for sure that the share would be at the same valuation if the program have not been there. Insist, calm down, time will put things in context, if Apple performs well this year, and the extension of the stock option to more employees and the growth in Capex are a good indication, the stock will rebound sharply. Or, Wall St. for the first time in history has a perfect timing predicting the start of the decline of a company. And is much more accurate predicting the future performance of a company then its management, who has much more information than any analyst can. Hay, everything is possible. Probable, not...

Calm down, c´mon. Look; here in Europe Spain has had one of the biggest GDP growth of the EU this year, but its stock market has been the worst performer.

Yes, sometimes markets get mad for stupid reasons. Apple is the biggest profit maker ever and the stock market has "rewarded" it with a drop. Perplexity is the most accurate term to define this behavior. Wall Street, and investors in general, can´t believe that this can happen because the last time a company outside the oil industry reached this level of profits was in the pre-depression era, if ever.

So clam down, Apple only have to perform slightly better this year for the stock to regain a fairer value, because IMHO, what really drives the stock down is that investors think that what happened this year was an accident, a singularity, something that can´t repeat. But look at the guidance for the first quarter, and the Capex/grow historical ratio and probably, not in the scale of last year, but again, Apple will be the company with the biggest profits ever, bitting itself for the second year, and ignore that performance two years in a row is too much, even for Wall St. Include that it never happened since the beginning of the great recession and dropped despite reaching the biggest profit in Corporate Global ever, and you got all the pieces for a sharp rebound.

On the other hand, some people argued that all companies fall down sooner or later, but seriously; it needed fifty years of continuous mistakes to hammer down GM, and Wall ST. give it the biggest value ever in 2000, forty years after the management pushed the self-destruction button. So thinking that Wall St. will time accurately the "Beginning of the end" of Apple as a company in naive.