Bart Y

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Bart Y
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  • Editorial: Apple's Q319 earnings destroy a mountain of fake data and false reporting

    bells said:
    avon b7 said:
    Stopped reading after this:

    "Cook didn't even mention the millions of Huawei Androids that were diverted from Western markets to the domestic Chinese market in a desperate rash of discounting promotions this year. That's pretty clearly because Huawei's phones are not being sold to iPhone users, despite the constant insistence that Huawei is somehow pushing Apple out of business in China, when clearly that's not the case. "

    Please provide supporting links to back this claim up.

    As for the supposed claim by certain watchers that Apple wouldn't be able to shift X series phones, why did Apple pay a 'penalty' clause to Samsung for not reaching the contracted orders for displays?

    Clearly someone got their estimates very, very wrong.
    Talk about hypocrisy. Please provide something other than rumor that Apple paid Samsung a penalty clause. Where is a Samsung or Apple statement or Apple financial record that support that rumor? Don't give me an android central link. 

    Even if true, the rumor concerns OLED displays not LCD displays. It is quite possible that Apple over estimated the more expensive iPhone XS sales that have OLED displays, but under estimated the less expensive iPhone XS sales which don't use OLED displays. So if accurate, Apple could sell less XSs than thought thereby owing Samsung a penalty, but selling way more XRs then thought resulting in a net gain for Apple. 

    Korean IT source discussing the Samsung Display division issue with Apple OLED orders:
    http://english.etnews.com/20190621200001

    BGR article discussing the payment demands between Samsung and Apple:
    https://bgr.com/2019/07/05/iphone-xs-sales-performance-force-apple-to-reimburse-samsung/

    Samsung Q2 earnings report discusses the Display division issue:
    https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-second-quarter-2019-results

    "The Display Panel Business reported improvement due to a one-off gain in mobile displays and stronger sales of rigid OLED panels, which offset losses from large displays."

    Apple does not call out this payment specifically in its current 10Q filing, but there are two areas of Manufacturing obligations / Contractual Obligations and Unconditional Purchase Obligations which specify $27B and $8B in current or future payments, so I suspect the modest $684M payment to Samsung is buried in there.
    watto_cobra
  • Editorial: Apple's Q319 earnings destroy a mountain of fake data and false reporting

    gatorguy said:

    That is not how product is typically sold, for so many obvious reasons that you shouldn't even have to be told. 

    Yes unpaid consignment with no assurance of payment is a thing, but not something generally done by companies and particularly not with higher priced goods. In general shipped=sold just as I said. 

    Don't confuse not being purchased yet by an end user as the product not being sold. It's only sold by a company once (don't be anal about some silly edge-case exception to that), most often to a distributor/reseller/retailer who must then make their own sale of the product. Apple doesn't get paid again by the customer after getting paid by Target for iPhone's shipped to them, nor does the sale count twice. It was counted when Target paid for them. 
    I never understood this other than some wanting to believe Samsung and others ship all these phones to retailers and they just sit on the shelves. But if there’s all these phones people aren’t buying someone is taking a write down for that inventory. I have a hard time believing any phone manufacturer has all this unsold inventory constantly being written down.
    Please review Samsung's current earning report and the language they use in describing their poor Mobile division results:(if you can get past some of the corporate-speak that indicates a, IMO, "wishing and hoping strategy".  I highlight some key issues:
    https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-second-quarter-2019-results

    "The IT & Mobile Communications Division posted KRW 25.86 trillion in consolidated revenue and KRW 1.56 trillion in operating profit for the quarter."

    (For comparison, KRW 25.86T = $21.75B USD revenue, KRW 1.56T = $1.31B USD profits for Samsung Mobile
    Apple reported, per the above article chart and 8K and 10Q filings,
    iPhone revenue of $25.986B USD and using the product margin (of all products) of 30.4%, it can be roughly inferred that iPhone profits were about $7.9B conservatively)

    http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/c706f1cd-fe0c-48bd-8a2e-65f15ecdf02f.pdf
    https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/81cb927c-8589-4aa7-a73a-3d5ed844cd17.rtf

    Considering that Apple only has 11% of market share, and Samsung roughly 22% per the report below, we can see that despite Samsung selling twice as many phones last quarter, they made $4.2B or 16% less revenue, and $6.6B or 83% less profit!!)


    "While the overall market saw demand for smartphones decline due to the negative macroeconomic environment and seasonal weakness, Samsung’s smartphone shipments increased QoQ led by strong sales of the new Galaxy A Series, including the Galaxy A50 and A70. However, sales of flagship models fell QoQ on weak sales momentum for the Galaxy S10 and stagnant demand for premium products. " 

    (sold a lot of less expensive but almost profitless mid-priced tier phones.  And the Flagship Galaxy S10 sales are weak, even weaker than the previous S9, which was weaker than the S8 and so on down to the S6.  And the high priced flagship phones are where the most profit is made)

     
    "Increased costs associated with growing competition in the mid- to low- end segment and inventory adjustments of older models resulted in a drop in profit for the Mobile Business. On the other hand, earnings for the Networks Business improved thanks to the expansion of commercial 5G service in South Korea and LTE networks in overseas markets."

    (Increased costs means marketing, promotions and discounts.  Inventory adjustments of older models means writedowns, writeoffs, or heavy discounts or BOGO's to move inventory - the answer to your statement of "
    I have a hard time believing any phone manufacturer has all this unsold inventory constantly being written down.")

    "In the second half, the overall mobile market demand is expected to remain weak due to growing uncertainties over the global economy and trade. Samsung will continue to strengthen its flagship lineup and increase sales of new mass market models. The Company will promptly respond to the changing business environment, and step up efforts to secure profitability by enhancing efficiency across development, manufacturing and marketing operations."

    (Right, Samsung will introduce the $2K fold which has virtually no profit after all the R&D and costs associated with it and IMO, a limited sales market.  If the S10 sold poorly so far, what's going to help it for the rest of the year until Feb.-Mar 2020 when the S11 is due?  Heavy promotional deals and "inventory adjustments" unless they just cut production way back to meet way decreased demand for their flagships.  And yes, the Note 9 didn't sell well (<10M units) either.  Increasing sales of mass market models means selling a lot but with razor thin profits (see above) a lot of a very little profit.  Therefore, guidance in this sector is poor for Samsung.)

    watto_cobra
  • Apple Watch's Emergency SOS credited with saving epileptic Australian woman

    I want to get one if these so badly -- I'm old and I live alone and I go for runs in the woods alone -- but my darned Series 1 won't stop ticking.   It still works great and my frugality won't let me discard it for something better...
    George, Gift or give the Series 1 to someone who would appreciate it.  Don't let the dollars that represent such improved and potentially life saving technology keep you separated from having and using it.  If you're gone, who's going to enjoy the money that you saved up?
    watto_cobra
  • Apple expects 'iPhone 11' sales to match 2018 iPhone XS sales figures

    rain22 said:
    Prices need to come down. Software augmentation isn’t going to be enough of a draw to justify $2000 phones going forward. In general, people mostly want a good camera, long battery, and good price for quality. Now that Apple can’t throttle people’s phones to persuade upgrades - expect them to cut lifespan of OS upgrades as a mechanism - like they are doing with the 6’s. This is going to grow old fast on the consumer and make people think twice about the cost. People don’t buy new computers every 2 years - and Apple is charging computer prices for phones now.
    I don't think this affects more than 25% of iPhone owners. They want device longevity rather than spend the money to buy a new phone - they will put up with having an older iOS mainly because they can still run most of their apps on older versions of the app. If they have a killer app that must run on the latest, then they have motivation to upgrade their device. The iPhone 6 runs the iOS 12 and will likely be the last update for it so considering the iPhone 6 being introduced in Sept. 2014, that's 5 full years of iOS upgrades, certainly over twice as long as any competing Android device. Considering if the 6 is still working well enough to be used and useful, a 5+ year lifespan speaks volumes about Apple build quality, longevity, and software support. iOS 12 apps should be around for a good 3-4 years easy since so many iPhones run it.
    watto_cobra
  • Apple buys Intel modem business in $1B deal

    I bet this is good.

    I just don't understand why YET.

    All will be known soon fellas!!
    Perhaps an interesting application will not be in smart-er-phones, but Fast moving large vehicles - cars, autonomous cars, buses, subway systems, maybe even aircraft? If 5G rollout really can achieve scale, bandwidth, and range, or somehow is satellite based, thinking beyond the smartphone could make a lot of sense. Of course, there's just the old mundane office deployment, meaning no more ethernet wires, or the connected home and myriad devices, and way improved HomePods, Apple TV, etc. without direct wiring. AR connected via 5G is the promised union that makes sense. Just some thoughts.
    watto_cobra