twolf2919

As another commenter eluded, it strikes me as odd that Apple would license a core technology - they've stated numerous times that they want to control all the core components of the user's experience.  So this is either a false rumor or an admission by Apple that they're hopelessly behind on AI and need outside help to be perceived as being on the AI bandwagon.

Great review - thanks!

I do disagree with one of your statements - it regards the battery: "Given the already weighty headset, it was the best solution, and the old Apple would likely not have made that necessary call."  Why is it the best solution?  You admit that the headset is already weighty - so couldn't they have moved most of the functionality that is in the headset that makes it so heavy into the battery pack?  I mean, if they already admitted defeat on the portability front and requiring a cable, why not just put everything into a box at the other end of the cable?  Hey, eventually, that box could actually be an iPhone!  And that wire could be replaced with a wireless connection and a tiny battery in the headset to power the remaining onboard logic.

Small correction: 'There are clear frontrunners for the biggest job in tech" - isn't that the Microsoft CEO position?  Apple's market cap is $2.6T and Microsoft's is $2.9T.  Apple lost the crown a few weeks back.

With respect to "pent-up demand for iPhone 16", Wedbush made the same claim when justifying their price target before iPhone 15 came out.  I guess a broken clock is going to be right  at least twice a day?  I have no idea why analysts expect AI to be a big growth generator for Apple..  Apple has been using AI for  years (e.g. object  and people recognition in Photos).  All Apple can really do with the latest AI craze, generative AI with large language models, is to improve Siri.  While Siri needs a lot of improvement, I don't see people flocking to iPhone, even if she gets a lot better  as an assistant.

Analysts are just grasping at straws when it comes to Apple.  The fact is that it's been 8 years since Apple has produced a great new mass market product that  helped its bottom line - AiirPods (2016) and Apple Watch (2015).  The recently announced Vision Pro won't contribute meaningfully to growth for years.  So AAPL investors have nothing to look forward to.  Although services are growing well,  the gains there won't be more than the stagnation and outright reduction in iPhone sales that are  seen now.

20% of Apple's sales come from China alone.  The economic situation there as well as the geopolitical rivalry with the US won't be resolved anytime soon, so I doubt sales there will improve in the near future.  Another poster mentioned India growth offsetting China sales losses.  I don't believe that.  First of all, sales in India are tiny in comparison.  Yes, they are growing nicely, but it'll be years before they approach the sales volume in China.

omasou said:

IMHO Apple never wanted to make a car. They wanted to develop the systems that run the car and/or use it as an AI development platform, e.g. computer vision, edge ai, etc.

Precisely what I've been saying for years.  There has never been any statement by Apple regarding ambitions to make a whole car and there have never been any glimpses of prototypes (the only thing anyone ever observed is Lexus RX SUVs with LiDAR equipment on the roof).  It was always my opinion that Apple was going to extend their reach into cars via a, sort of, CarPlay 3.0.  The upcoming new CarPlay already gives manufacturers the option to let CarPlay control/visualize more of a vehicle's core functions.  It's easy to extrapolate a direction from that - e.g. give manufacturers an option for letting CarPlay provide self-driving capabilities.