ksec

rogifan_new said:

mubaili said:

Apple must not talk itself into believing that it cannot gain more market share. It must act aggressively, speed up the cycle, and push more variety of devices, i.e., do what they have done to the iPad line up to the iPhone line up. 

The problem is price, plain and simple. In 2016 the flagship iPhone started at $649. One year later the flagship model was $999. Even the Xr which is supposed to be the more affordable model starts at $749, $100 more than the flagship from 2 years prior. It doesn’t matter if the tech inside the phone or the materials it’s made with are more advanced/expensive to manufacture. At the end of the day the average selling price of the iPhone has steadily been going up. And consumers are starting to say no thanks, I’ll keep what I’ve got it’s good enough.

With the X I think Apple was testing how much of a price increase the market would bear (and the higher ASP would allow them to show revenue growth even when sales were flat to down). I think they got their answer. I’d be surprised if there are any price cuts this year and I’ll bet the XS gets removed from the lineup. But I don’t think we’ll see any price increases or storage configurations that push up the price. And I’ll bet we see Apple aggressively pushing trade-ins again.

1STnTENDERBITS said:

ksec said:

Worth doing some numbers.

Apple roughly ships 200M iPhone, 100M of those are not the latest, i.e iPhone 8 and below. Foxconn in India already has the ability to assemble those phones if and when needed. It is only a matter of scale.

US has roughly 30% of Apple's revenue, so assuming in perfect scale ( which won't be the case but for the sake of numbers ), Foxconn will need to assemble 15M older generation iPhone and 15M latest iPhone outside of China.

This doesn't make sense.  You can't use # of phones as a proxy for revenue.  There are too many things wrong here.  You've basically said Apple needs to make 30M phones -total- for the US.  Does that sound right to you?

Just find one of those estimates from Gartner, IDC, etc. and look at their yearly US sales estimates.  That's approximately how many phones Foxconn would need to assemble outside of China.  It's going to be more than 30M