gregg thurman

seanismorris said:

There’s some pent-up demand for the Apple SE2.

When the SE2 is released Apple’s ave. iPhone price will decline.

Analysts: Apple’s going out of business 🤒
Apple:  Reports record earnings 🤗

If there is a decline in ASP after the release of the iPhoneSE2 it won't be much.  iPhone SE only accounts for about 5% of total unit sales.  Not enough to offset iPhone 8/Plus/X unit sales of 65% of unit sales, and 30% iPhone 6S/6S Plus/7/7 Plus sales (especially if the consumer is migrating to the larger, more expensive models as ASP clearly indicates).

Dracarys said:

What nonsense. ASP went up because the iPhone X costs more. Apple still sold LESS iPhone Xs than they did previous flagships, but the price being higher brings up the ASP. No need for sensationalism.

Either a paid naysayer or a paid hack.  Take your pick.

badmonk said:

Great informative article DED.  Thank you for this information that rebuts the premise that people are unwilling to pay $1000+ for a premium phone.

It fascinates me that people don’t understand this idea.

I'm starting to believe that the naysayers on Apple-centric blogs are Android users masquerading as iPhone users, especially the most vocal of them (likeApplecynic).  Some do it for the perverse joy they get in roiling a crowd, others that do it I'm convinced are paid agitators.

We’ve known for some time that handset sales were slowing, what with numerous reports of lengthening upgrade cycles and all. Why is it then, that visible evidence of this slowdown is being met with so much surprise?

forecasting Apple’s revenue and earnings used to be a function of calculating growth rates. I stopped doing that more than a year ago, ignoring unit sales estimates and instead focusing on managements guidance. 

Management cares about each of its revenue streams but manages the company as a whole, and plans future growth opportunities where they believe the market is heading. For more than a year Apple has been touting Services growth. To that end Apple’s recent focus has been on Apple Music and video creation (I think HomePod is going to be an important part of that focus). You can see it in it’s hires, conference call comments and advertising.  The iPhone X is a defensive move to protect handset revenue in a saturated market where units sales growth have stalled and may go into decline.  Those that equate unit sales as success (manufacturers and investor alike) are going to lose their shirt/s. Only those producing sustainable profits will survive. In the handset industry there are only 4, maybe 5, that will survive the next 4 years (Apple chief among them). Diversifying revenue streams is key to survival, and none have diversified as well as Apple.  

That WS is surprised by TSMC’s guidance illustrates just how weak it’s analysis is (at least the analysis provided the public through media outlets). Today’s trading in AAPL reflects just how badly WS fails to recognize the importance of the whole.  It’s a forest out there.  Focusing on the trees is a fools game. 

Apple was criticized because AirPods, at $179, was too expensive.  Today they are the best selling wireless earbud.
Apple was criticized because Apple Pencils, at $99, was too expensive.  Today they are the best selling tablet stylus.
Apple was criticized because the Apple Watch, at $329, was too expensive.  Today it outsells the entire Swiss watch industry.
Apple was criticized because the iPhone X, at $999, was too expensive. Available for only 2 of 3 months in the December quarter it generated more profit than 600 Android handset manufacturers combined.
Apple is being criticized because the HomePod, at $349, is too expensive.  We don't even have full launch quarter results, yet Kuo is saying that WS's first year 10 million units sold estimate is too high by 8 million units.

The iPhone 7 4.7" (base unit) was $649 at launch.  A year later Apple reduced the price to $549.
The iPhone 8 4.7" (base unit) was $699 at launch.

Now, Kuo is telling us that the next LCD iPhone, with DSDS technology, a much larger (6.1") screen and FaceID will start at $550 (just over half the price of iPhone X base unit).

Does anybody see how so out of character this would make Apple?    There isn't enough margin in a $550 iPhone, that will cost more to build than did the iPhone 7, possible.

I've said it before, Kuo is an idiot, but gets massive recognition because some (about 40%) of his many predictions come true.  If I threw 20 lbs of spaghetti against the wall I'm sure some of it will stick.  That doesn't make me an expert spaghetti thrower.  It does give the media something to drive clicks and enhance my reputation.

Kuo's reputation as an expert predictor of Apple's product plans is the result of selective reporting his prognostications by this and other Apple-centric blogs.