sirozha

hmlongco said:

sirozha said:

So, I don't think there's quite as much interest in the iPhone this time around as it was in 2017...

The thing is that these days you're encouraged to reserve a specific pickup time to get your new phone and/or watch. 

As such, you arrive at your 9-to-9:30 appointment time to get your phone. Doesn't do much good to arrive early and it makes sales judgements by checking the length of the line pretty much irrelevant. It's not like the old days where you stood in lines a couple of hundred of people long to try to get the model you wanted...

It was the same thing in 2017. People could reserve time slots for the pickup of pre-ordered phones. Yet, many people do not pre-order because they don't want to be up in the middle of the night. So, they just show up at the door, and many of them get the phones even though those who pre-ordered them may be getting them days later. 

This feature is much more needed in the Apple TV than it is in the iPhone. 

randominternetperson said:

First, I wouldn't put much weight in this type of analysis.

However, isn't their conclusion exactly backwards using their own logic?

However, while the iPhone 11's lead time is relatively lower than the iPhone 11 Pro range, it reported six days for the first week and 12 days in the second week. The doubling of the lead time "implies to us increased interest in the 'lower end' model that initially anticipated by Apple and the supply chain," writes JP Morgan.

Think that through.  There is a longer lead time for the Pro and Pro Max than the non-Pro model.  In other words, demand is outstripping supply more for the high end models than the "low end" non-Pro model.  Doesn't that imply that there is increased interest in the "higher end" models?

Yet AI says:

The increase in lead times for the iPhone 11 suggests demand for the new iPhone models is higher than the supply chain anticipated, according to JP Morgan, with the lead time growth for the value-based model seemingly indicating consumers are not focusing their purchases on the higher-end models as was previously predicted.

Apple got burned last year on the overproduction of the iPhone Xs and Xs Max. They most likely cut the production this time. In the past, lead times were 4-6 weeks, so the lead time of a couple weeks is much shorter than the lead times of the yesteryear. You can't extrapolate demand from the lead time. Most likely, Apple has manufactured iPhone 11 in much larger quantities than iPhone 11 Pro. Apple doesn't consider a two-week lead time to be too dramatic for them to take a risk and overproduce iPhone 11 Pro again. 

Professional photographers are not going to use the iPhone as their primary camera anyway. So, the name of the new iPhone 11 Pro is a misnomer. It should have been called iPhone 11 Instagram Pro. 

How does a service with just a few shows compare to Netflix or Hulu, which have thousands of titles? 

Apple TV should have become a streaming delivery platform for content providers to use. Kind of like a cable TV provider is a delivery platform for multiple content providers. This way, content providers could concentrate on the content and let Apple handle the technical issues related to streaming. 

Instead, Apple decided to become a content provider with their own streaming service. It’s clearly a dead end approach, as people will only be willing to have a limited number of streaming services.