brucemc

I certainly hope there is an update to the HR sensor - just because Apple has put some much effort and investment into their health initiatives, it would be a shame to see Gen 4 come and still have the original sensors.  Surely there is some reasonable improvement to include there.

For myself, what I am most interested in is:
- Enough battery life to allow some type of always on watch face (or rather - configurable so you could have it always on from 9am-9pm, as example).  Can be dimmer when not active, but something to showcase the great watch faces rather than a black screen.
- Introduction of smart bands.  Expanding the functionality of watch would be greatly enhanced here, and usher in a whole new market.  This is where one might get sensors that can monitor blood pressure, blood sucrose levels.  I think this is inevitable, so my next upgrade (I just when from original to non-LTE Series 3) I want to be a platform with legs

BT5 would be a solid update to support wireless connectivity for the next decade - better b/w and lower power.

1983 said:

Good stuff! Health monitoring seems to be a great growth area for Apple. And I reckon it was Tim Cook that decided this to be a priority for development. Even if he left Apple tomorrow, I believe this would be his legacy, as well as captaining Apple’s huge growth over the last 7 years or so. 

I agree.  I already feel safer with the Apple Watch just due to the 911 emergency calling feature.  It has saved a few lives already (those trapped in accident or injured and not able reach phone), and when I am working outside with chainsaws and the like it gives just a bit more peace of mind.  The HR monitor is already helping uncover a few issues for people.  Just wait until the heart arrhythmia studies are done and a future AW could detect more cardiac conditions.

Considering only revenue and estimates of prices:
- Vast majority of Echo devices sold are Dots, often discounted to $20-30.  If you consider a mix of the others and some not on sale, you might get to an ASP of $50-$60
- Apple's list is $350, and outside of a few employee discounts, it is likely sold at the list price.  Perhaps an ASP of $330.

Using these figures (guesstimates as they are):
- Amazon Echo sales = $240M
- Apple HomePod sales = $230M

Even if you use a slightly higher Echo and lower HomePod ASP, the point is still the same.  Apple is likely to be the revenue leader in a year.  Remember the number of countries where HomePod is available is still quite limited.  Give some time feature improvements, better knowledge of product, and I expect sales to grow (though likely still relatively modest).

One market that Apple could pursue with smart sound would be the TV sound bar.  Majority of households still don't have anything, relying on crappy TV internal speakers.  An Apple solution (doesn't have to be a bar per say - it could be a pair of mini HomePods in stereo) that is well integrated with AppleTV along with Apple Music would do quite well.  I think it would add considerable value to the AppleTV.

Congratulations to Tim Cook and everyone working at Apple. No company deserves this milestone more!  A great and continuing legacy for Steve Jobs. 

Let et me know when any other company comes close to $1T at a forward PE of about 15...

entropys said:

avon b7 said:

60% of Mac sales to new users. This is the second time in recent memory this has happened. The last one was an Xmas quarter I believe.

I find that somewhat intriguing.

Must be some corporate buyers.  At least I hope so, it would be quite detrimental to long term Mac sales if private purchasers discover their brand new machine isn’t really.

i would hope the bulk of the Mac range is updated this quarter with decent specs, functionality and flexibility. That will fix the Mac sales slump pretty quick.

The vast majority buy new computers when they need them. I and my family are solidly in the Apple ecosystem, but I just upgraded my 2011 MBP for a 2017 13” MBP (refurb) which I use for work.  The family iMac is from 2009 and will get upgraded this year after 9 years.  I purchase Apple products due to usefulness, quality, and support.  Apple gets ever more of my spend every year due to better services and new products (Apple Watch, AirPods, Apple Music, etc). But I don’t buy every version. 

I think Apple has this business figured out...