brucemc

Apple isn't planning to have no cash on hand - just bring "free cash" (defined as that left over after running all aspects of the business, including money for new investments, M&A, etc), down to 0.  Using all of the excess - where as due to tax laws they preferred to keep the overseas cash there and the cash built up.  Apple effectively was using debt issued in the US as a proxy for bringing foreign cash back.

fallenjt said:

And this is how they reported Amazon:

.........................

Amazon blew past street estimates for its fourth quarter earnings, reflecting strong holiday sales and growth in its cloud business.

Here are the most important numbers:

• Revenue: $60.5 billion vs. $59.83 billion, as estimated, according to Thomson Reuters
• EPS: $3.75 per share*
• AWS revenue: $5.11 billion vs. $4.97 billion, as estimated, according to FactSet

Indeed - "blew past" - revenue 1.1% higher than estimates!  Hard to imagine...

Amazon reported a "somewhat real" profit??!!!  Bezos won't be happy about that - gotta spend that shit!  If Amazon reports consistent (small) profits, then eventually people will pay attention to a ludicrous P/E ratio.  When there aren't any profits and P/E is "N/A", no one cares.

SpamSandwich said:

tundraboy said:

It's not an Apple sales miss, it's an analysts' forecast miss.  Don't feed the analysts' pretension that if their forecast is wrong, it's the subject company's fault.

Correct. The real question is, did Apple hit their own guidance numbers?

They did in the just reported fiscal Q1 2018. $88.3B vs upper guidance of $87B. 

Hard to say say if they hit numbers already for a future quarter...

rogifan_new said:

StrangeDays said:

rogifan_new said:

Of course. And if March was predicted to be a record quarter then all eyes (read: pessimism) would be on June. Every time Apple has a good quarter and the stock does nothing people say it’s not about the past but the future. Because with Apple the future can never be as good or better than the past. Wall Street is constantly assuming doom is around the quarter. And Apple leadership have done squat to change that narrative. All the stock buybacks in the world and Apple’s PE is still pathetic and the stock way more volatile compared to its tech peers. One sketchy supply chain rumor from Asia and the stock drops 2%. Disgusting. And a perfect example is Facebook. They admitted engagement is down because of the changes they made to the newsfeed yet the stock is up 4% today. If that was Apple the stock would be tanking today.

Everything fine except blaming Cook and friends. How do you rationalize this? Contrary to your claim, Cook has tried to teach Wall Street, has already told people they don't manage to the stock price, and not to listen to supply chain guessers or parts-pricing guessers. He has said this specifically. Meanwhile, they continue batting hits out of the park, raking in the money people are throwing at them, quarter after quarter. What more do you expect them to do?

This isn’t about Apple managing to a stock price. Why aren’t Amazon, Google, Facebook and even Microsoft perpetually doomed the way Apple is? Why is Apple always one quarter or product launch away from disaster but none of their peers are? To suggest there’s nothing Cook and Apple leadership can do about this is nonsense.

Microsoft aside, the other 3 companies are associated with the rise of the Internet / online advertising / cloud computing / AI (and more buzzwords to come), with unlimited upside potential (despite that not thought surviving careful analysis).  Apple is thought as a product maker that is only as good as the next product, or updated version of a product - and barely more than random chance that a current Apple product user will buy again.

I haven't heard amazing strategy out of Amazon, Facebook or Google - not of the kind you are claiming Apple is lacking (a detailed but visionary 10-year roadmap of what the company is going to do).

Missing in all the discussion:
- Falling USD provides a tailwind for non-US revenue (a large majority), which is reversal of past several years
- Repatriation of cash, which will accelerate share buybacks, which puts upward pressure (or at least stabilizing) on prices on its own, and increases future earnings-per-share
- Regardless of iPhone discussion (which I think will show good numbers), all Apple's other businesses are doing well.  AW & AirPods will show strong growth in other (starting to provide some meaningful billions), iPad has bottomed and is going through an upgrade cycle, and Mac's stabilized with potential for some small growth.  Services chugging along with double-digit growth and is now Apple's second largest "product line".

It is true that iPhone is near the peak of units-sold-per-year.  Some years will be up, some down.  Expanding the line at the top and bottom will net some new adds, and overall increase ASPs.  If measuring over a rolling 2-3 year period, I would expect iPhone revenue to grow in the single digits for awhile.

Perhaps most importantly, the Apple Watch is looking strong, with AirPods as a highly desired accessory.  AW has the field of smart wrist wearables (not dedicated fitness trackers) entirely to its own right now.  It is kind of iPod like in dominance.  This is key as it shows that, more than anyone else, Apple has a path to a post-smartphone future.  Apple will pass a cumulative 50M Apple Watch units sold this fiscal year, with I suspect 25M units to be sold this calendar year.  That is just with the current functions.

Apple is investing in health more than any other consumer electronics company.  AW is miles ahead of competition.  If (when) Apple gets a must have health benefit (not magic, but something like identifying heart conditions of arrhythmia, blood pressure), you will see AW sales skyrocket (I could see 100M+ annually in 5 years in that scenario).

Apple's investment in augmented reality will eventually (I think it will take a min 2-3 more years) bring an Apple "glasses" product.  Apple will have the premium full wearables line (wrist as hub + ears + eyes).  Together these items likely have the ASP of a premium iPhone.  And Apple will still be selling over 200+M iPhones per year then.

So no, I am not too worried about Apple...