vvswarup

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  • Berenberg fires analyst infamous for doom-and-gloom Apple forecasts

    sog35 said:

    One of my concerns with Apple is like all technology: soon you will reach a point when for the price people around the world will say their phone is fast enough with sufficient features that upgrades will mean less and less. Might be interesting to see the age of who owns iPhones and how frequently they upgrade. Eventually you reach a point of good enough. 

    People have been saying this for decades.

    From PC, laptop, tablet, smartphone.

    The computing device will NEVER be good enough. There will always be advancements that will move a large chunk of the market to upgrade.  Specific form factors of computing devices do get commoditized, but not computing devices in general.  And that's why it was so important for Apple to get into the wearables game.

    The real vision of Apple should not be to keep growing unit sales per year. The real vision is to grow the user base and then keep increasing services revenue.  Every year Apple should add more services to the ecosystem to grow revenue.  Chasing higher and higher unit sales is a fools game. The real goal for Apple is too have 1 billion users by 2017, and 1.5 billion users by 2020.

    Then each year they would just need to add services to the ecosystem. Either by internal development or acquisition.  These are the services I'd like too see Apple add to the ecosystem by 2020:

    1. Netflix - buy them 
    2. Bank / Creditcard - buy a bank if necessary
    3. Security Monitoring
    4. Expand Cloud services
    5. Search and online ads
    6. Cars
    7. Auto insurance
    8. Medical equipment
    9. Real Estate transaction services
    10. Live TV content
    11. Video sharing - buy Vimeo

    With 2 billion users the company will get growth simply from services revenue. At that point hardware sales is just the icing on the cake.  This is the VISION that Tim Cook should be preaching to Wall Street.
    I see where you're going with this now. You want Apple to build up a massive user base and then monetize that user base with services revenue. You want Apple to become like Google and Facebook. I will give you credit for going all-in on the idea that Apple should just throw in the towel and show Wall Street exactly what it wants to see because Wall Street sure does love the word "user base."

    But the problem with buying growth in the user base is that after a certain point, the cost of each additional percentage point in user base growth will exceed the revenue growth that that additional percentage point in user base generates. It's the law of diminishing returns. This drop-off is even more pronounced when it comes to services that have low barriers to entry. For example, cloud storage is turning into a price war. 5GB of storage space from Google is the same as 5GB of storage space from Dropbox or Amazon. 

    In summary, I'm glad you're not the CEO of Apple. 
    xamaxMacProsingularity
  • Berenberg fires analyst infamous for doom-and-gloom Apple forecasts

    sog35 said:

    Maybe Apple should go private /s
    Tim Cooks passion for civil rights is a shining example to all CEO's and frankly Jobs chose correctly on who to succeed him. IMHO he's been fantastic for Apple.
    I have ZERO problem with Cook's passion for civil rights.

    I do have a problem that Cook takes time to push civil rights but does NOTHING to counter the flatout lies that the media spews about the company.

    I do have a problem that Cook takes time to push civil rights but does NOTHING to change the message that Apple is more than just the iPhone Company.

    IMO, Tim Cook is the worst CEO on Wall Street when you take into consideration all the advantages Apple has as a company.  The last 3 years they have been growing revenue by 30% and EPS by 40%. They have the most powerful and respected brand in the world. They have the most important product in the history of man (iPhone).  Cook has $250 billion at his disposal. Yet even with all of this Cook has not been able to stabilize the stock price. The stock is up a pitiful 2% the last 3 years while breaking every profit metric know to man.  The sole reason is because Tim Cook has been an utter FAILURE at controlling the message of the company.  Wall Street looks at Apple as a pure hardware company that is selling hardware that is near peak saturation. That is a FUCKING FAILURE of Tim Cook. 

    Instead of using his time championing Civil rights Cook needs to get his ass in gear and start changing the message on the street that Apple is much more than just iPhone Inc.  He needs to show that the install base for Mac users, iPhone users, iPad users, Watch users, AppleTV users are all growing.  He needs to show that the econsystem is stronger than ever and that users are paying more for services on the ecosystem.  He needs to show that the install base will grow in the next year, 5 years, and 10 years.  And that they will continue to add services that will grow exponentially as the install base grows.  But Cook has not done this. He has allowed Wall Street to focus soley on quarterly iPhone units.  Cook needs to be fired immediatly and replaced by a CEO who understands how to articulate the vision of the company and not be stuck on unit sales or other short-term metrics that Wall Street can manipulate.

    Tim Cook is like that clown used car salesman who says hes successful because he sold more cars this year than last year.
    Any jackass on the street can say that.  We need a CEO who can see the company VISION a decade from now and preach the message that Apple is on tract to reach that vision even if their are small bumps in the road.  Look at what the Tesla CEO preaches.  We need someone like that.  We don't need a damn bean counter like Cook who gives us information that a spreadsheet can.

    Its a FUCKING JOKE that lesser companies like Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Netflix are killing it this year and are all near all time highs and have valuations that put Apple to shame. And the only reason is because they have CEO's that are controlling the message on the street while the Apple CEO is NOTHING and sits on his ASS all day.  Its also a joke that if Apple shows a slight dip in iPhone sales next quarter the stock will drop to $90 and lose over $200 billion in value, just because the CEO has allowed Wall Street to be Apple's PR department.
    You say that Tim Cook needs to point out that the install base for Mac users, iPhone users, iPad users, and so on is growing. Tim Cook has certainly pointed these things out during every quarterly earnings call. He has said time and time again that he believes in the viability of those platforms. What more do you want him to say? 

    I agree that in spite of Apple making twice as much money as Google or Amazon and yet still posting better revenue/profit growth than either company, Apple's stock is so undervalued. The only way Tim Cook can do anything to change the perception about Apple is if he reduces secrecy and I don't think he should do that.
    xamax
  • Berenberg fires analyst infamous for doom-and-gloom Apple forecasts

    tjwolf said:
    The guy should have been fired a long time ago.  It's one thing to predict doom, but to continue to do so for several years - when reality doesn't bear you out - is simply irresponsible.  Think of how much the investors at Berenberg who listened to this guy have lost in terms of opportunity!  If they listened to him when he first warned of Apple's impending doom, they would have missed an almost doubling of the stock as well as dividends.
    Berenberg is not responsible for investors who lose money because they made their decisions on the basis of the a report from a Berenberg analyst. The only way Berenberg can be held remotely responsible is if there was evidence of bias or intent to deceive investors. There was none of that. The analyst simply arrived at a conclusion on the basis of the data he had, which I will assume was clearly outlined in the report until I see evidence to the contrary. Investors shouldn't blindly follow an analyst report. 
    gregoriusmchia
  • FBR is latest firm to cut iPhone 6s estimates, but expects 'mega product cycle' for 'iPhone 7'

    Tim Cook has shown that he's not going to let some analyst who's probably never run a business in their life dictate to him how he should run a company. Apple should let the numbers speak for themselves.
    IanMC2
  • The search for Apple's next big thing

    sog35 said:

    sog35 said:
    Wall Street will never stop manipulating Apple. Why?  Because they make BILLIONS on shorting the stock, computer algo trading, selling covered calls, and day trades.  Long term investors and Apple employees lose out on HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS IN WEALTH.

    The only way to stop this is for Apple to go private.

    People say its impossible for Apple to go private since no investment group has $700-$900 billion required to buyout the shareholders.  The fact is no buyout is necessary. If the shareholders agree to take the company private they don't need to sell their shares.  Their shares will simply be converted to private equity shares. What that means is the shares would not be sold on the public market. It would no longer be open to manipulation by Wall Street.  Instead it would be sold on a private exchange that would put limits on purchases. For example they could put a limit that any shares bought would have to be held for a minimum of 60 days.  That would get rid of all day traders, option manipulators, and most importantly computer algo's.

    So what are the steps for Apple going private?

    1. Board of Directors approval to take company off of public exchanges (NYSE)
    2. Vote by shareholders to convert public shares to private shares
    3. A private exchange is set up with buy/sell limitations that will limit manipulation
    4. Apple will need to continue to report quarterly financials to the SEC is because they have over 2000 shareholders
    This is NEVER going to happen so I don't know why you keep banging on about it.

    Go suck a lemon dude.
    Don't blame me that you don't have vision like I do.
    Don't blame me that you think things can never happen just because they never happened.

    Personally I'm sick and tired of Apple stock.  I sold a significant amount of my shares this morning (at a decent profit mind you).

    I'm done following this pathetic stock (not a pathetic company).  Fuc you Wall Street. I'm done with this shiit.  I still hold about 800 shares but those will be in deep freeze for decades.  I'm done following this company of a daily basis or even monthly basis.  Once the stock hits $140-$150 I'm selling it all.  Apple board of directors and CEO don't give a crap about stockholders.  

    This will be my last post here for 12 months.  
    I lost my bet that Apple see's $150.
    So long.  See you on 12/14/16.  Or maybe never.
    Apple's BoD and CEO don't give a crap about stockholders? Give me an example of any of Apple's peers who do give a crap about stockholders. 
    jackansi