Realistic view of iPhone's future

bungamunjibungamunji
Posted:
in iPhone edited April 2014

I've been a long time lingerer, and I have posted here a few times before, but this has been bugging me so I felt the need to login and post.

 

Before we look at what I expect for the future lineup, let's take a look at the current lineup. Prices are off contract (aka, actual) prices.

 

5C 8gb ~500

5C 16gb-550

5C 32gb-650

5S 16gb- 650

5S 32gb- 750

5S 64gb- 850

 

This is all just my opinion/educated guess, but I have a feeling they will only bring out one or two new models.

 

If they bring out one, it will be a 4.7" or 5" display. In order to hold margins in check, it will have 1gb of ram (I hope not!) and still start at 16gb. And that will fill the 650/750/850 slot in their lineup. I don't see them coming out with a 5.5" phablet style phone, because thats's getting close to the iPad Mini and I just don't see a phablet fitting with Apple's style. I could be wrong. But 4.7"-5" is about the max to still be reasonably used in one hand, etc. If they only bring out this one model, the 5s will be bumped down to the 550-650 range, and the 5C will be possibly bumped down to the 400ish range off contract, finally giving off contract customers a reasonable option. It will help grow the ecosystem while still maintaining margins and excelling in their home turf, the top end.

 

They could bring out two models. I see them still bringing out the 4.7" to 5" size, but doing the same thing they did last year and replacing the current model with a plastic, cheaper version with the same internals. So basically, a 5C with the internals of a 5S. This 6C (or whatever you want to call it...) would be the 550-650 option, and the 5C would be discontinued or used as the 400ish option. 

 

Either way, I see Apple adding value to their existing price points, rather than changing them or bringing out a phablet, which would increase their prices. I have a feeling Apple is beginning to realize 50% margins on high end phones won't last forever. In order to stay at the top, they need to have a reasonable mid range option (a price reduced 5C most likely) and a bigger size screen in their flagship.

 

I don't see them radically changing their business model, since it's worked so well for them so far.

 

Thanks for reading,

I'd love to here what y'all think.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 3
    bungamunjibungamunji Posts: 19member

    No one? Really?

  • Reply 2 of 3
    ingsocingsoc Posts: 212member

    Without drilling into the detail too much, I think that you make some good points. In particular I agree with the notion that Apple are unlikely to release a phablet, mostly because I think these devices are fairly unintuitive and I doubt their long term value. I suspect that a slightly larger iPhone and the iPad Mini should cover the size range pretty adequately.

     

    I do think that Apple are likely to release an iPhone with a bigger screen, but certainly I would expect them to maintain emphasis on one-handed operation.

     

    Also, there's some sense of iPhone 5c not setting the world on fire in terms of sales, but I agree with you that we are unlikely to see the end of this type of approach from Apple; they may fine-tune their response to the entry-level crowd with iPhone 6c (or whatever they call it). I can see some strong reasons to incorporate an entry-level model, but it's about getting the positioning right for that (and possibly it may be about having a device with a slightly lower cost at this level, but maintaining the cost structure for the flagship model).

     

    I'm not sure where this leaves the iPhone 5 range, though. Possibly they could cut off iPhone 5c and only offer iPhone 5s but at a more attractive price point. It's difficult to say.

  • Reply 3 of 3
    bungamunjibungamunji Posts: 19member

    Thanks, I'm glad someone agrees with me. Haha.

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