Rumors of all iPhone 16 models having an A18 processor make no sense
A stock analyst has put forth the rumor that the entire iPhone 16 lineup will have an A18-branded chip, but between his track record and Apple's recent patterns, it seems unlikely at this point.
The iPhone 16 Pro, maybe
In a note to investors, Analyst Jeff Pu is claiming that the entire iPhone 16 lineup will get a processor branded with A18. He's since clarified that, saying that the will be the A18 in the lower-end iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus, with a Pro version in the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max.
Adding more color, in an email to our friends over at MacRumors, he says that all of the A18 processor line will be produced with TSMC's second-generation 3nm chip manufacturing process called "N3E," vice "N3B" which is what was used for the A17 Pro processor.
We don't think that's likely for two main reasons.
Apple has set the stage for two iPhone model-years
We don't think it's a coincidence that for two years, Apple has put its most modern iPhone processor in the Pro models, and the previous year's in the non-Pro form factor. It's a differentiator between the lines beyond the camera.
TSMC shipping N3E-based chips does not mean that it is lighting its N3B lines on fire. The company still produces 28nm chips for consumer goods and the automotive industry, and all the processes in between it and 3nm.
There's no reason to believe that this will stop. Other leakers with a more reliable record have yet to chime in on this, and Pu isn't what you'd call a "first-tier leaker."
Pu's track record doesn't help
Pu's record as it pertains to Apple's future plans is not good. Most recently, he predicted that the iPhone 15 Pro Max would have a higher price, which did not materialize. He also said that the iPhone 15 Pro Max wouldn't ship until October, which was also false.
This was stacked on top of rumors in May, which predicted iPhone 15 Pro production delays because of the 48 megapixel camera expected in the device. And a bit before that, he predicted "AirPods Lite" after other analysts with similar track records said the same -- and there is no sign of that either.
On top of that, his other predictions about Apple products are either obvious or reported elsewhere first. To date, nothing he's said seems to be related to any information he's gleaning independently from Apple's supply chain.
If this report was from Mark Gurman, or Ming-Chi Kuo, we'd give it a "possible" rating. Since it's from Pu, there's more than enough to be incredibly skeptical about it at this time.
Read on AppleInsider
Comments
The new A series in the Pro and Previous A series in the "Regular" has been a stop-gap to a Pro model and regular model of Apple Silicon.
They first did separation with the extra GPU core on the 13 Pro.
Then the put that with the extra GPU in the 14, giving it sill an improved chip, and the new A16 in the 14 Pro.
But now that A17 introduced "Pro", it makes sense to have an A18 and A18 Pro.
This evolution has already been underway.
That probably means an A18 and a A18 Pro. The A18 Pro may have more GPU cores enabled. Apple is setting the stage for this next year by calling this years processor the A17 Pro despite no "plain" A17. If Apple does use the A17 naming for the lower-end iPhone next year it will certainly be an A17 redone for the N3E process. I would not be surprised if we see Apple really go overboard on the A18 GPU to continue with the gaming focus (going head-to-head with the Switch 2 next year) and start working toward a lower cost Vision headset. I think Apple is just getting started with prioritizing AAA class gaming that could take on consoles now that most of the pieces are in place: DirectX compatibility, mesh shaders / next gen shading pipeline, raytracing, upscaling, Game Porting Toolkit, etc. It feels like Apple might want to really hit their stride in AAA gaming 1-2 years from now.
He might be right about there being both A18 Bionic (neural engine) and A18 Pro (hardware ray tracing), I guess, maybe.
First, let's start with the manufacturing process. Let's face it, N3B is a bust. There seems to be zero benefit over the previous N4P in terms performance or efficiency. Likewise, Apple is going to be pushing to move to N3E when it can. Further, assuming Apple isn't going to reuse the A17 Pro, any changes, even modest changes requires a redesign and they'd likely be looking at the next manufacturing process for that redesign. That said, it's very possible that Apple keeps the A17 Pro and uses is in other products such as the Apple TV or a lower end iPad.
Second, look at the marketing. Once Apple started using the "pro" naming convention, it's clear that they are telegraphing a future where we have pro and non-pro versions of chips. Why would Apple do this? It's not just a matter of having more or less CPU and GPU cores. Apple may wish to do this while keeping new phones on the latest ISP for cameras, etc. Even for years like this year, Apple made major design changes to the GPU. They could bring that same technology, but with fewer cores to a non-pro version of a chip.
Likewise, I think it makes perfect sense and will bring more consistency to new generation of product than simply reusing last year's chip as they have in the past.
1. This year's chip for the Pro models is the 18 PRO. There's no way they'd drop an 18 PRO in the base models next year. That would be too confusing.
2. Apple needs to combat perceptions that the base models are just "yesterday's tech." Instead, watch for a 19 BIONIC in the base models, and a 19 PRO in the pro models.
It makes sense.
The past two years using old chips in brand new phone models just doesn't sit well with me. They never did it before and just seemed like a money grab.
People would never buy a new flagship device with a year old chip. I understand that the vanilla iPhone is not the most premium product but it is still considered a flagship level phone.
On top of all that when Apple uses the newest chip in all of the models newly released it gives them a serious competitive edge that gets lost if using a year old chip.
While if Apple uses a new chip in all the phones but has a Pro chip with maybe higher clock frequency, more CPU and GPU cores, and better cooling that would be a lot easier to swallow. People wouldn't feel like they are getting something recycled and old but still getting the latest and greatest. And if you want the max performance of the pro chip you pay for the pro model. Makes a lot more sense this way than the band aid they have been using lately.