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iPad disrupting global DRAM market, causing chipmakers to lose billions - Page 2

post #41 of 64
11/30/11 at 6:30pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by irnchriz View Post

What complete. PC sales are down due to a worldwide recession. Companies aren't spending money upgrading and replacing PC's. Nothing to do with the iPad. It's easy to point a finger at someone else when it's your own bad planning that landed you in the sh!t.

+1. The iPad isn't the reason for the problem. It is the global industry undergoing recession and the fact that corporations have woken up to the fact that they don't need to keep upgrading their machines every other year.
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post #42 of 64
11/30/11 at 6:35pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

All hogwash. In reality, PC sales are still growing (not counting the iPad or other tablets). They're growing at a slower rate than previously, but they're growing.

Add in the fact that PCs come with more RAM than in the past and it's clear that RAM demand is also increasing.

What happened is the same thing that happens every 3-5 years in the memory industry (same thing happens in the chemical and many other capital intensive markets, btw). When prices are good and business is growing, everyone suddenly decides to build massive amounts of new capacity all at once. When the new capacity comes on line, the prices drop and manufacturers complain about the market (even though the market is still growing, just not as fast as supply). So they stop building new plants until demand catches up with supply and prices go up. Then the entire cycle repeats.

It happens over and over - and has nothing to do with Apple.

Most of what you are saying is 'hogwash'. Demand for RAM is increasing? LOL...do you not read what you type. The price of DDR3 DRAM a year ago was $4.70, with prices looking to plummet to possibly $1.25 this year. A shortfall in PC demand is responsible for this price drop. PC manufacturers are actually using LESS RAM than they did before, as they try to increase profitability in the low margin PC market. This of course is not to say that RAM pricing won't go through the roof in its final throws. That always happens when the end is near, as demand from the "I don't' want to change" crowd, outstrips that of supply. Same principle as a cassette tape. A pack of 2 basic tapes will run you $6 at Radio Shack. Was a time when they were $.25 each when cassette players were the norm.

Furthermore, chip makers are shifting gears and going full speed into the mobile market for the superior growth potential. Enter the iPad and Smartphone here. Mobile RAM and NAND flash memory is where its at for the future.

The desktop PC we know today will be a dinosaur once today's mobile devices reach 5th and 6th gens, and when cloud computing becomes mainstream.
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post #43 of 64
11/30/11 at 7:47pm
It's not any one cause, it's the combination of several. iPad sales have indeed impacted PC sales, but not enough by itself to cause such losses in the DRAM market.

In addition to iPad sales, it could be argued that smartphone sales have also impacted PC sales, but to a lesser extent.

Another reason for DRAM sales losses is the world wide economic recession. I work at a large company, and we're not buying PCs or upgrading at the rate we were when times were good. Our 3-year refresh rate is being pushed out to 4 and 5 years.

Recent operating system upgrades for MacOS and Windows, and Linux as well, have not increased the RAM requirements for PCs like in years past. In some cases (not Windows) the RAM requirements have decreased slightly.

The market shifting toward more laptop sales instead of desktop sales has likely depressed DRAM sales as well, since laptops can't be upgraded with as much RAM as desktops. Netbook sales don't help either (even less RAM).

There could be other factors as well.
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post #44 of 64
11/30/11 at 7:50pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

I'll bet Samsung isn't the biggest chip maker in the world 5 years from now.


How much are you willing to bet?
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post #45 of 64
11/30/11 at 8:03pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I have two new MBPs one 4 one 8 gigs there is a hell of a difference to be honest. I am upping the other to 8 asap.

I have 2GB in my old MBP and frankly it hurts. However when not involved in taxing activities it isn't that bad. The problem of course is that Macs make it extremely easy to get involved in taxing activities.

My problem is not that More RAM wouldn't help a great deal, rather it is the wisdom in investing in a machine from early 2008. My next RAM upgrade might come with a new screen, processor and SSD. 😳😳😳
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post #46 of 64
11/30/11 at 8:18pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by djtrackiie View Post

i remember when people were calling the iPad and "oversized iphone" and look at it now.

Many of us took such comments as a compliment. These sorts of discussions really highlighted just how out of touch people where when it came to iPhone.

We can look at iPad now but honestly I honk Apple is just getting started with iOS and the associated hardware. I see so much potential that I'm sometimes frustrated by Apples slowness.
Quote:
Disrupting PCs, created a brand new market in which dozens of Android tablets are desperate to keep up with, selling 40 MILLION units - which is more than the entire population of Canada!

Really I thought there where more Canadians than that!

As to Android keeping up, as long as it is associated with Google it doesn't have a chance. I suspect that the powers to be realized this at Amazon thus the fork. I actually believe Amazon has more potential to compete than all of the Google followers out there.
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post #47 of 64
11/30/11 at 8:35pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

I have 2GB in my old MBP and frankly it hurts. However when not involved in taxing activities it isn't that bad. The problem of course is that Macs make it extremely easy to get involved in taxing activities.

My problem is not that More RAM wouldn't help a great deal, rather it is the wisdom in investing in a machine from early 2008. My next RAM upgrade might come with a new screen, processor and SSD.

Your early 2008 MBP takes 2x200-pin PC2-5300 (667MHz) DDR2 SO-DIMMs with a maximum allowed of 6GB. I think you're just hurting your user experience and resale value by not investing $40 into at least 2x2GB RAM.

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post #48 of 64
11/30/11 at 9:41pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by talksense101 View Post

+1. The iPad isn't the reason for the problem. It is the global industry undergoing recession and the fact that corporations have woken up to the fact that they don't need to keep upgrading their machines every other year.

To the contrary. Any fortune 500 company that I've worked for NEVER upgrades every year. My current company is the largest coatings manufacturer globally, and I'm still working on Windows XP and Office 2007. My company gets at least 5-7 years out of their PC's before the cost of fixing them begins to exceed the benefit of having them. Then maybe they upgrade. And when they do, the computers purchased are refurbs and again, have OS's on them that are a few gens old.

Sure, global recession has to do with everything, but when Apple is selling more iPads than Dell is selling computers, there is a direct correlation between what people need in a portable device. Most people simply surf the net, listen to music, and watch movies on their PC. This is exactly what the iPad is designed for. And when MS releasees Office for the iPad very shortly, combined with cloud computing to store work, there really will be no need any longer for a desktop, or laptop for that matter, for the casual PC user, which is the bulk of the marketshare.
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post #49 of 64
11/30/11 at 10:21pm
I wish them more misery. I love news like this. DRAM was price fixed for too long.

The best upgrade anyone can do is not more RAM but an SSD.

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iPod nano 5th Gen 8GB Orange, iPad 3rd Gen WiFi 32GB White
MacBook Pro 15" Core i7 2.66GHz 8GB RAM 120GB Intel 320M
Mac mini Core 2 Duo 2.4GHz 8GB RAM, iPhone 5 32GB Black

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post #50 of 64
11/30/11 at 10:36pm
DRAM chips will rebound when Motherboard manufacturers routinely release boards with 128/256GB of RAM to be used for consumption, along with future Mac Pros.

Right now I see only 16-32 GB boards outside of the workstation/server market.

Give us 4 x16 slots, 8 8/16 GB RAM slots and 2 CPU slots for the Mac Pro and other Clone vendors for Windows/Linux and not charge $700-$1000 for the Motherboard.
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post #51 of 64
12/1/11 at 12:56am
Quote:
Originally Posted by ConradJoe View Post

Yeah? Good to know. I haven't priced sticks of RAM for a while. Last time I did, upgrading to 8 was very tempting. Maybe by now it is a much easier decision.

I just kicked my new 13" MBP up to 8 gigs for 30 bucks with NewEgg. Ram is stupid-cheap right now, so might as well take advantage of the fact.
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post #52 of 64
12/1/11 at 2:22am
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Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

You haven't met my wife then

I have and it didn't cost me a dime... Zing!
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post #53 of 64
12/1/11 at 5:27am
Anyone involved in the DRAM business for more than a few years has experienced the boom & bust nature of the business.

The big problem is that eventually, you need to build new fabs to build future generations of chips, and a new fab is very expensive. I don't know about now but when I was last in the business (more than a decade ago), it was costing more than a billion dollars to build a new fab, so the market would go through periods of short supply, leading to much higher prices, which lead to high profits which lead to building new fabs, leading to surplus and lower prices, losses, and retrenchment until demand caught up to supply, and the cycle ran anew. The boom and bust nature had a certain positive reinforcement, as companies were reluctant to invest in a new fab while they were losing money, so there was a tendency for new fab construction to be somewhat synchronized across the industry, leading to larger booms and busts.
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post #54 of 64
12/1/11 at 6:46am
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmvsm View Post

Most of what you are saying is 'hogwash'.

Really? I note that you haven't backed up anything you've claimed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cmvsm View Post

Demand for RAM is increasing?

Let's see - as already shown, PC sales are still increasing. And PCs have more RAM than they did in the past (partly fueled by the low cost). That means more RAM.

I couldn't find RAM production by volume (everyone wants to use sales by dollar - which isn't useful when there are big price swings). However, if you look at the global picture, DRAM sales (in dollars) have declined by about 25% during the past year. However, price (per unit) has dropped by 70%. Mathematically, that means that DRAM VOLUME has continued to increase.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cmvsm View Post

LOL...do you not read what you type. The price of DDR3 DRAM a year ago was $4.70, with prices looking to plummet to possibly $1.25 this year.

OK. Use your figures. DRAM has dropped from $4.70 per unit to $1.25 per unit. Yet DRAM manufacturer's revenue has only dropped by about 25%. How in the world do you rationalize those facts unless there has been an increase in volume?

Quote:
Originally Posted by cmvsm View Post

A shortfall in PC demand is responsible for this price drop.

Absolutely wrong. As shown earlier (you love to just ignore the facts, don't you?), PC sales globally are expected to increase this year by a modest 4%. They also increased last year - and the year before. PC volumes are growing, albeit slowly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cmvsm View Post

PC manufacturers are actually using LESS RAM than they did before, as they try to increase profitability in the low margin PC market.

Really? When was the last time you bought a PC? Even a very cheap PC today includes 4 GB of RAM standard. A year ago, 2 GB was common.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kayle View Post

Anyone involved in the DRAM business for more than a few years has experienced the boom & bust nature of the business.

The big problem is that eventually, you need to build new fabs to build future generations of chips, and a new fab is very expensive. I don't know about now but when I was last in the business (more than a decade ago), it was costing more than a billion dollars to build a new fab, so the market would go through periods of short supply, leading to much higher prices, which lead to high profits which lead to building new fabs, leading to surplus and lower prices, losses, and retrenchment until demand caught up to supply, and the cycle ran anew. The boom and bust nature had a certain positive reinforcement, as companies were reluctant to invest in a new fab while they were losing money, so there was a tendency for new fab construction to be somewhat synchronized across the industry, leading to larger booms and busts.

Exactly. That's what I've been trying to say.
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post #55 of 64
12/1/11 at 7:39am
Quote:
Originally Posted by allblue View Post

And I paid 24 groats for my abacus back in 1423...

How many groats to a ducat?
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post #56 of 64
12/1/11 at 7:45am
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post

Meh - you can never have enough RAM IMNSHO.

Or, as they say in Naw'lins... "Too much is never enough"
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– Alan Kay –
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"So at the end of the presentation, Steve came up to me and said: Is the iPhone worth criticizing? And I said: Make the screen five inches by eight inches, and you’ll rule the world."
– Alan Kay –
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post #57 of 64
12/1/11 at 8:38am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

How many groats to a ducat?

And what the fruck is a groat?
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post #58 of 64
12/1/11 at 8:39am
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChristophB View Post

And what the fruck is a groat?

Any of various medieval European coins, in particular an English silver coin worth four old pence, issued between 1351 and 1662.
PhilBoogie
That's Google alright. For a stupid company they sure do dumb things.
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PhilBoogie
That's Google alright. For a stupid company they sure do dumb things.
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post #59 of 64
12/1/11 at 8:52am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Any of various medieval European coins, in particular an English silver coin worth four old pence, issued between 1351 and 1662.

Damn, I knew I shoulda puta at the end.
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post #60 of 64
12/1/11 at 10:44am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

I'll bet Samsung isn't the biggest chip maker in the world 5 years from now.


Your underestimation of Samsung is laughable.

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post #61 of 64
12/1/11 at 11:29am
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

I have 2GB in my old MBP and frankly it hurts. However when not involved in taxing activities it isn't that bad. The problem of course is that Macs make it extremely easy to get involved in taxing activities.

My problem is not that More RAM wouldn't help a great deal, rather it is the wisdom in investing in a machine from early 2008. My next RAM upgrade might come with a new screen, processor and SSD. 😳😳😳

I think you are being a little cheap

Best thing I ever did was put 4G in my white MacBook, and the second best was putting this MBP to 6G. At the end of the day, it costs peanuts to do. And apparently it'll cost less peanuts in the future.

And more ran does help a great deal! Trust me! A 4G chip is maybe $30?
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post #62 of 64
12/1/11 at 11:32am
Quote:
Originally Posted by talksense101 View Post

+1. The iPad isn't the reason for the problem. It is the global industry undergoing recession and the fact that corporations have woken up to the fact that they don't need to keep upgrading their machines every other year.

As someone else said - this recession is really hurting iPad sales....

I genuinely do think iPads are stopping people buying new pcs, it certainly stopped us buying a new laptop for instance, and even as my wife said a few days ago, the iPad has given her laptop at least another 2 years before it gets retired.

Ironically, the replacement for her laptop will be a Mac.
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post #63 of 64
12/1/11 at 7:15pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Your early 2008 MBP takes 2x200-pin PC2-5300 (667MHz) DDR2 SO-DIMMs with a maximum allowed of 6GB.

Actually, the last firmware update allows 8 GB now.

http://blog.macsales.com/9102-secret...cbooks-use-8gb

Reminds me - I should get my second 4 GB SO-DIMM...
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post #64 of 64
12/2/11 at 4:31am
looks like another *win* for Samsung
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