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Holiday iPhone, Mac sales ahead of expectations, iPad 'a little light'

post #1 of 43
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Indications from Apple's supply chain suggest that iPhone and Mac sales are picking up strength ahead of Christmas, while the iPad remains on pace for a record setting quarter, albeit with softer sales than expected.

Analyst Shaw Wu with Sterne Agee issued an update to investors on Wednesday on Apple's current quarter, which concludes in about three and a half weeks. His checks within the company's global supply chain found that iPhone momentum has been strong across the board, with strong sales of the iPhone 4S, as well as the iPhone 4 and iPhone 3GS.

"This is helping drive greater smartphone adoption as well as enabling share gains against Android and BlackBerry (as evidenced with both HTC and RIMM missing numbers)," Wu wrote. "Our supplier checks indicate much improved production capacity but demand continues to outstrip supply."

Wu has accordingly raised his forecast for iPhone sales this quarter to 28 million, up from 26 million. He has also raised his projected Mac sales to 5.2 million, up from 5 million, based particularly on the strength of Apple's thin-and-light MacBook Air.

Last month, one report said that the MacBook Air now accounts for 28 percent of all of Apple's notebook shipments. The product line, revamped in late 2010, has proven to be so popular that Apple is rumored to expand it with a new 15-inch model in 2012.

While the iPhone and Mac are reportedly ahead of Wu's expectations, he said iPad shipments are "a little light" in the current quarter, prompting him to reduce projected sales from 15 million to 13.5 million. Wu said iPad sales are soft partially due to competition from the Amazon Kindle Fire, but also because some users are opting for a more full-featured MacBook Air.



Even if Wu's prediction were to prove accurate, 13.5 million iPad units sold in the holiday quarter would be a new record for Apple. The company's previous best of 11.2 million iPads came in its last fiscal quarter, along with a record 4.89 million Macs.

Wu's claims do align with what a separate analyst indicated on Tuesday, when T. Michael Walkley with Canaccord Genuity reduced projected iPad sales by a million units to 13 million. Walkley said iPad sales are allegedly slowing due to the expected debut of a new iPad in early 2012, as well as new competition from the $199 Kindle Fire. But Walkley also said any loss of iPad market share will be more than offset by fourth-quarter iPhone sales, which he expects to be 30.5 million units.
post #2 of 43
Sleep in peace, Steve ...
post #3 of 43
iPhone and Mac sales above expectations won't matter one bit if any other Apple product is even 1% less than the wildest forecast. The stock vampires will suck the blood out of AAPL with just the slightest hint of any product, no matter how small, not exceeding expectations.
post #4 of 43
That guy pulls everything out of his butt.

Of course the numbers are lower than he expects. Because he doesn't account for things like everyone is certain there is a new iPad in January so instead of buying iPads for gifts they buy gift cards so folks can buy the new big bad one that will come out a week too late for the return policy

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

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post #5 of 43
ThE "light" iPad sales are not surprising considering all thr competitors are clearing inventory at fire sale prices. Additionally, the Kindle should hurt a bit right now, but once customers realize it is no iPad, the kindle effect should subside also. Finally, most are expecting a big iPad 3 update, so that is the next step for Apple
post #6 of 43
Apple ought to start a program to let disappointed Kindle Fire buyers trade up to an iPad.

My sense is that almost all Kindle Fire buyers would prefer an iPad, all else being equal, but the $199 loss leader price is irresistible.
post #7 of 43
Of course the iPad sales rate is slower, Microsoft has completed buying one for all it's employees, developers and friends. (MS may buy more as a give-a-way(free) if you buy Office for the iPad when it comes out),
post #8 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

That guy pulls everything out of his butt.

Of course the numbers are lower than he expects. Because he doesn't account for things like everyone is certain there is a new iPad in January so instead of buying iPads for gifts they buy gift cards so folks can buy the new big bad one that will come out a week too late for the return policy

The only people that analysts like Shaw Wu of Sterne Agee has to answer to are his bosses and their clients. If you think that he doesn't realize the interest, or the lack there of, of the general public you are mistaken. Using such volatile information as you have accounted for, in his line of work would soon get him fired.

Perhaps you would appreciate his recent report on RIMM.

Research in Motion, Shaw Wu Only Regrets He Didnt Downgrade You Sooner
post #9 of 43
Some of us are waiting to spend our money on iPads with retina displays.
post #10 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by tikiman View Post

Some of us are waiting to spend our money on iPads with retina displays.

Yea like me
post #11 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onhka View Post

The only people that analysts like Shaw Wu of Sterne Agee has to answer to are his bosses and their clients. If you think that he doesn't realize the interest, or the lack there of, of the general public you are mistaken. Using such volatile information as you have accounted for, in his line of work would soon get him fired.

Perhaps you would appreciate his recent report on RIMM.

Research in Motion, Shaw Wu Only Regrets He Didnt Downgrade You Sooner

After reading that RIMM report I'd fire the bastard for sure. Had he gotten it right in October (about RIM) he could have saved his clients 33% of their money... and he still hasn't put a sell on that company because he believes it is a takeover target. Really??!! Takeover at $6 maybe but by that time Wu's clients might as well just write off their investment. Wu should have screamed sell RIMM and buy AAPL in June.
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post #12 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

That guy pulls everything out of his butt.

Of course the numbers are lower than he expects. Because he doesn't account for things like everyone is certain there is a new iPad in January so instead of buying iPads for gifts they buy gift cards so folks can buy the new big bad one that will come out a week too late for the return policy

'Everyone' is expecting a new iPad in January? I think you're greatly confused about how many people read rumors sites. Besides, even if you spend a lot of time on sites like this, I doubt if many people get the impression that there will be a new iPad in January. Probably April, but there's no reason to think it will be January. In any event, 99% of the population wouldn't be hearing those rumors at all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post

ThE "light" iPad sales are not surprising considering all thr competitors are clearing inventory at fire sale prices. Additionally, the Kindle should hurt a bit right now, but once customers realize it is no iPad, the kindle effect should subside also. Finally, most are expecting a big iPad 3 update, so that is the next step for Apple

Yes, it is not surprising that a few people who were on the fence about an iPad might choose a Fire instead. Or cases like the one where a mother decided to buy a Kindle Fire for each kid rather than a shared iPad. The Fire will undoubtedly affect Apple's iPad sales temporarily.

In the long run, though, I don't see it having too much impact. The Fire is mostly going to people who wouldn't have been iPad customers, anyway (or who will buy both). Plus, I doubt if Amazon's shareholders will be happy with them bleeding red ink indefinitely. I suspect that the next generation Fire will be significantly more expensive (or will be substantially less capable). Add in the fact that initial reports on the Fire are not overwhelmingly positive, so many Fire customers will end up buying their iPads, anyway.

So it will have a short term impact, but won't be a major issue for the long run.
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post #13 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by xavier83 View Post

Yea like me

And me.
post #14 of 43
only for apple would record setting profit numbers and sales/shipments would be disappointing.

let's see this in other fields: baseball, A-Rod is projected to hit 800 HR in his career. If he "only" breaks Barry's record with 760, it would be a disappointment.
post #15 of 43
Waiting for iPad 3. It took a while for the iPad specific apps to 'mature,' so I skipped 1 and 2. Now I can see a need for a device between my 17-inch MBP and my iPhone 4.

Next year, iPad 3 and iPhone 5.

Oh, and the 'Television' that Steve 'cracked.'

2012 will be hugh (huge).
post #16 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

only for apple would record setting profit numbers and sales/shipments would be disappointing.

let's see this in other fields: baseball, A-Rod is projected to hit 800 HR in his career. If he "only" breaks Barry's record with 760, it would be a disappointment.

Actually... if he hit 798 it would be a disappointment.

That would be a closer analogy to Apple and its relationship with the investment community.
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post #17 of 43
Wu said: iPad shipments are "a little light" in the current quarter, prompting [him] to reduce projected sales from 15 million to 13.5 million.

Translation: The new iPad estimate I pulled out of my ass is different from the previous estimate I pulled out of my ass.
post #18 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

After reading that RIMM report I'd fire the bastard for sure. Had he gotten it right in October (about RIM) he could have saved his clients 33% of their money... and he still hasn't put a sell on that company because he believes it is a takeover target. Really??!! Takeover at $6 maybe but by that time Wu's clients might as well just write off their investment. Wu should have screamed sell RIMM and buy AAPL in June.

And you could do better? Maybe there is correspondence course that you could take from your secluded island, real or otherwise.

But first, I think you need some education about the job and what intelligent investor are aware of before they commit themselves..

There are reasons why investors are successful and others fail. But relying on bloggers seldom wins out in the long run, as the dot com bust has proven.
post #19 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onhka View Post

And you could do better? Maybe there is correspondence course that you could take from your secluded island, real or otherwise.

But first, I think you need some education about the job and what intelligent investor are aware of before they commit themselves..

There are reasons why investors are successful and others fail. But relying on bloggers seldom wins out in the long run, as the dot com bust has proven.

... and, of course, you had to make this personal.

Yes... I can do better. I got out of RIMM a long time ago. What stock remained in my portfolio.... hmmmm... you really need to ask.

Now tell me, who do you think did better... those people who stayed in RIMM using Wu's advice, or me, who stayed with AAPL.

You asked.
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post #20 of 43
I (and quite a few people I know) are holding off on buying an iPad, on the assumption that iPad 3 will be along fairly soon in the new year.

I know it's a guess, but Apple seem to have hit a fairly consistent one year refresh on their mobile devices, and I would expect they do the same for the iPad. The same thing seemed to happen with the iPhone last quarter as people held off to see what the 4S would be, now that seems to be going gangbusters again.
post #21 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

... and, of course, you had to make this personal.

Yes... I can do better. I got out of RIMM a long time ago. What stock remained in my portfolio.... hmmmm... you really need to ask.

Now tell me, who do you think did better... those people who stayed in RIMM using Wu's advice, or me, who stayed with AAPL.

You asked.

I don't recall Wu recommending to get out of APPL and buying RIMM

Wu's job is to review portfolios, analyze, declare the protocol/criteria utilized and write a report for his 'only for their eyes' superiors.

And unless you are on their clients/prospectives' correspondence list, I doubt that you have ever seen anything worth making a judgement on.

As for me, I never owned anything of RIM's. And since January, 1984, virtually nearly every Apple product ever made, and lots of them.
post #22 of 43
The press will attribute the slightly less than stellar sales to the Amazon Kindle Tablet. Yes, they still call this POS a Tablet. It can do most of what people do all the time with the iPad but cost only 200 bucks. Sounds great until you really use the POS.
post #23 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onhka View Post

I don't recall Wu recommending to get out of APPL and buying RIMM

Wu's job is to review portfolios, analyze, declare the protocol/criteria utilized and write a report for his 'only for their eyes' superiors.

And unless you are on their clients/prospectives' correspondence list, I doubt that you have ever seen anything worth making a judgement on.

As for me, I never owned anything of RIM's. And since January, 1984, virtually nearly every Apple product ever made, and lots of them.

You asked me if I could do better... and, as mentioned, I did.

You can go on and on and on if you wish (... and still making it personal ) but it doesn't change that fact.

Enough said.

PS - back to the topic... I still believe that these guys are light on iPad sales. Wu should have stayed with 14-15 million. Without the Fire I would have stuck with 15 million flat but I'm still estimating 1 million over Wu's guess.
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post #24 of 43
Quote:
13.5 million iPad units sold in the holiday quarter would be a new record for Apple.

Toshiba sold 13.6 million blank DVDs last quarter, more than Apple sold iPads. It's over. Apple's run was awesome, but it can't go on forever.
post #25 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by macinthe408 View Post

Toshiba sold 13.6 million blank DVDs last quarter, more than Apple sold iPads. It's over. Apple's run was awesome, but it can't go on forever.

Sadly, it seems that this is close to the truth in the investment community's thinking. They're all waiting for the fall. Nobody wants to be caught with their pants down. Apple could have record quarters for the next 10 years... and they'd still be waiting for the fall in every year during that time.

The number of anything sold by Apple seems to be inconsequential.
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post #26 of 43

The comments section reads like AI!
post #27 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Sadly, it seems that this is close to the truth in the investment community's thinking. They're all waiting for the fall. Nobody wants to be caught with their pants down. Apple could have record quarters for the next 10 years... and they'd still be waiting for the fall in every year during that time.

The number of anything sold by Apple seems to be inconsequential.

Then it's a buying opportunity, no? All that it lacking is patience on your part?
post #28 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Then it's a buying opportunity, no? All that it lacking is patience on your part?

Not yet... imho

AAPL just bumped downwards off the 50... and then we get guys like Wu working on the downside with low iPad numbers. Tells me that there is still a chance to buy below 350... although the savings won't be substantial unless you're buying at least 1000 shares.

... and, really, the long range forecast in the January reveal had better be good or the bastards will short AAPL to $300.

Longer outlook, though... bouncing off of $500 by the summer of 2013... imo
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post #29 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post

ThE "light" iPad sales are not surprising considering all thr competitors are clearing inventory at fire sale prices. Additionally, the Kindle should hurt a bit right now, but once customers realize it is no iPad, the kindle effect should subside also. Finally, most are expecting a big iPad 3 update, so that is the next step for Apple

Agreed, given the wonderful gifts HP, RIM, Dell and others have given in the unique form of mega-million dollar inventory write downs... AKA, the selling products that cost upwards of $400+ to make for $99.95. I think someone should add up all of the magnificent failures in dollars lost should make for an interesting chart when compared with the profits the iPad has raked in over the same period.

The 'tablet' everyone seems to be looking at for a dent in iPad sales is of course the Amazon Fire.

I do agree... The price point is very compelling to ANYONE not savvy about the finer details and differences. Once people realize they have to sign their kid up for his own Amazon account or be crazy enough to let junior use the household account.

The problem of course being its SO easy to buy on the fire and the child controls might not be all that good... Apple lived and learned this lesson but 99% of the stuff that was purchased as $5 apps... The fire will let you buy just about anything Amazon sells...

Perhaps I'm making this more of an issue than it is but I don't think so.

I was right ... The news is already covering this nasty little issue:

http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/1...7B50J120111206
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post #30 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

In the long run, though, I don't see it having too much impact. The Fire is mostly going to people who wouldn't have been iPad customers, anyway (or who will buy both). Plus, I doubt if Amazon's shareholders will be happy with them bleeding red ink indefinitely. I suspect that the next generation Fire will be significantly more expensive (or will be substantially less capable). Add in the fact that initial reports on the Fire are not overwhelmingly positive, so many Fire customers will end up buying their iPads, anyway.

So you are saying that Fire customers would not have bought iPad anyway. But Cook believes that unhappy Fire customers will become iPad customers.

Apple fans, which is it? The statements are in conflict.

I predict the next gen Fire will have more features and maintain the price. Volume manufacturing will lower the cost of additional features.

If you read AI, you will get the (biased) impression that Fire is junk. Go to Youtube and looks at the videos. Go to Target and BB and try it out. I don't know what those reviewers were complaining about. I think they had a completely different device. My impression is as positive as my impression of the Touch. It is a good device that does many things well. For both devices, they have quirks and glitches. Just keep believing that the Fire is junk and underestimating the competition.

I suppose Apple fans still believe that "Android will never pass Apple in market share." Taste the medicine folks, its a little bitter.
post #31 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wings View Post

iPhone and Mac sales above expectations won't matter one bit if any other Apple product is even 1% less than the wildest forecast. The stock vampires will suck the blood out of AAPL with just the slightest hint of any product, no matter how small, not exceeding expectations.

You called it perfectly. It doesn't matter how much money Apple makes overall per quarter. It only matters that individual product unit sales expectations are reached. A miss on any one product will be a major disappointment to Wall Street and that will set up for a drop in Apple's share price. It doesn't even matter if high sales of one product offsets the lower sales of another product. Apple must meet and preferably beat every sales expectation of every product in order to boost share price. Those type of expectations make it almost impossible for Apple to beat because it's too specific and arbitrary at the same time. Case in point is if Apple introduced a new MacBook Air that may sap sales from the iPad, WS will just say that iPad sales were down and too bad as iPad sales expectations were missed.

I don't think any other company is under that type of manipulative scrutiny. Maybe Apple should stop disclosing individual product sales like Amazon does with the Kindle.
post #32 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by easy288 View Post

So you are saying that Fire customers would not have bought iPad anyway. But Cook believes that unhappy Fire customers will become iPad customers.

Apple fans, which is it? The statements are in conflict.

I predict the next gen Fire will have more features and maintain the price. Volume manufacturing will lower the cost of additional features.

If you read AI, you will get the (biased) impression that Fire is junk. Go to Youtube and looks at the videos. Go to Target and BB and try it out. I don't know what those reviewers were complaining about. I think they had a completely different device. My impression is as positive as my impression of the Touch. It is a good device that does many things well. For both devices, they have quirks and glitches. Just keep believing that the Fire is junk and underestimating the competition.

I suppose Apple fans still believe that "Android will never pass Apple in market share." Taste the medicine folks, its a little bitter.

Speaking of bitter...

Actually, if worded "correctly", the statements are not in conflict.

I said the other day that I believe that 2/3 of the Fire buyers wouldn't buy an iPad in the first place. So that leaves a full 1/3 who are either buying both or have a chance of buying the iPad in the future. The other 2/3 were never going to buy an iPad so are inconsequential to Apple at this time but in the future the Fire may prove to be a gateway drug to a more full featured tablet.
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post #33 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Actually... if he hit 798 it would be a disappointment.

That would be a closer analogy to Apple and its relationship with the investment community.

Disappointing seems to be the new catchphrase to describe all things Apple. Apple seems to be disappointing everyone lately. I'm surprised that anyone is buying or holding Apple shares at this point. Would anyone happen to know which company is not disappointing Wall Street, so I can pick up a few shares and not be disappointed?

Has ExxonMobil been disappointing any investors lately or have they managed to pump up more oil out of the ground at an accelerated rate?
post #34 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Disappointing seems to be the new catchphrase to describe all things Apple. Apple seems to be disappointing everyone lately. I'm surprised that anyone is buying or holding Apple shares at this point. Would anyone happen to know which company is not disappointing Wall Street, so I can pick up a few shares and not be disappointed?

Has ExxonMobil been disappointing any investors lately or have they managed to pump up more oil out of the ground at an accelerated rate?

The great thing about AAPL is that it's not only a good long term investment but it's also great for swing trading.
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post #35 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by easy288 View Post

So you are saying that Fire customers would not have bought iPad anyway. But Cook believes that unhappy Fire customers will become iPad customers.

Apple fans, which is it? The statements are in conflict.

No conflict at all. Both statements could be correct.

They would not have bought an iPad if they weren't introduced to tablet computing with something cheap. But once they are introduced to tablet computing, they might decide to spend more on a better tablet.

Think of it like golf clubs. Very few people would buy Ping clubs for their first set of clubs. It doesn't make sense to drop a grand on clubs, so Ping can safely assume that first-time buyers are not their customers.

However, someone who buys cheapie clubs and then likes the game, might well upgrade to Ping clubs at a later date.
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post #36 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

... everyone is certain there is a new iPad in January....

I'd be surprised to see an iPad in January...

I have an iPad 1 and will probably buy the next model.

But I am thinking March timeframe for an "iPad 3"...only because Fall '12 seems to be too long of a delay since the iPad 2.

And I figure a June timeframe for a new iPhone.

But I could be just pulling months outta my butt
post #37 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

everyone is certain there is a new iPad in January

I don't know a single person who expects an iPad in January. There has never been an iPad in January.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

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Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already fucked.

 

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post #38 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by tikiman View Post

Some of us are waiting to spend our money on iPads with retina displays.

A WHAT?! Why on earth would you think there will be such a thing? Apple had never said such a product exists. You might as well wait for the version that's powered by the miniature cold fusion reactor

All rumors do is hurt Apple.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #39 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onhka View Post

I don't recall Wu recommending to get out of APPL and buying RIMM

Actually, it would have been great advice to sell off APPL and short RIMM
post #40 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

A WHAT?! Why on earth would you think there will be such a thing? Apple had never said such a product exists. You might as well wait for the version that's powered by the miniature cold fusion reactor

All rumors do is hurt Apple.

Boy, are YOU on the wrong site, then.

Seriously though. I already have the first iPad and am happy with it. My only complaint is I'd prefer the sharpness of a retina display for long periods of reading. It's great on my iPhone 4 but the form factor is not what I want for reading books and technical manuals.
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