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Apple on pace to sell 4.8M Macs in holiday quarter, down 7% year over year

post #1 of 118
Thread Starter 
Domestic sales figures from the first month of Apple's holiday quarter have signaled the company is on track to sell 4.8 million Macs in the three-month period, representing a decrease from last year.

U.S. Mac sales in October were down 16 percent year over year, according to the latest data from NPD Group. But Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray noted that Mac sales have exceeded NPD figures by an average of 12 percentage points in the last three quarters, which suggests, overall Mac sales were down just 4 percent year over year.

Munster's estimates call for Mac sales to be down 7 percent year over year in the December quarter, which would be 4.8 million total units.

The NPD figures suggest Mac sales were down 40 percent when compared to September. That's a normal seasonal trend as back-to-school sales end, Munster said.

"The focus of the December quarter will likely be on iPhone 5 sales, and we note our supply checks indicate that iPhone 5 supply has improved significantly in the last three weeks," he said.

Macs


This quarter will include sales of the new 13-inch MacBook Pro with Retina display, as well as new Mac minis with Ivy Bridge processors, and a redesigned iMac that is scheduled to arrive later this month. But Apple's Mac sales are dominated by portable machines, and the bulk of the company's MacBook lineup was refreshed earlier this year, while the latest updates feature more desktop machines.

A year ago, Apple set a new record by selling 5.2 million Macs in the December 2011 quarter. That represented a 26 percent increase from the same period in 2010.

Last year, Munster's interpretation of NPD's October sales data proved accurate in projecting Mac sales for the quarter. Munster said the sales figures showed Apple on pace to sell between 5.1 million and 5.3 million Macs in the quarter, and actual holiday Mac sales fell squarely in the middle of that range.
post #2 of 118

Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!

 

I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?

post #3 of 118
Is this just a timing issue, with the macs getting a late release? The sales may be down, but I bet profit is up with the more expensive retina display. WINNING!
post #4 of 118

They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points so that their market share can be increased.

post #5 of 118

To what degree are preferred purchases of an iPad (rather than a PC or Mac) a factor here?

 

And to what degree will this be influenced by actual product availability?

post #6 of 118
I would have given apple 2000 euros weeks ago had the iMac been available for preorder...

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iMac 21.5" Late 2012, iPad 3 (Works fine for films), iPhone 5 (6 on order)

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William
iMac 21.5" Late 2012, iPad 3 (Works fine for films), iPhone 5 (6 on order)

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post #7 of 118
Not too long ago, it took Apple a whole year to sell as many!

iMac mid 2011 • 27 in • 3,4 GHz Core i7 • 32 GB RAM • AMD Radeon HD 6970M 2GB VRAM

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iMac mid 2011 • 27 in • 3,4 GHz Core i7 • 32 GB RAM • AMD Radeon HD 6970M 2GB VRAM

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post #8 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points 

 

 

Can't. If Apple wants to maintain quality, margins, and continue to dominate in PC consumer satisfaction (for many years now), they need to forego market share in favour of simply being the best, but with barriers to consumer entry that are naturally occurring with the necessary increase in price. 

 

I really don't think Apple minds that situation.

 

Where the Mac can't go in retail, however, the iPad will. 

 

It's a win-win for Apple. 

post #9 of 118
It's all tablets this year - macs (and PCs) are just not gonna be the big sellers they once were.
post #10 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!

 

I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?

 

 

As somebody else said, the issue is timing. September is the big back to school season. Further, people are likely spending money on gifts for others because of the holidays. These purchases will be things like iPods, iPhones, and iPads. 

post #11 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points so that their market share can be increased.

People associate Apple with quality, not cheap crap.
post #12 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points so that their market share can be increased.

No they don't. They've been increasing market share for a few years now. I believe they are the only PC company to increase sales.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!

 

I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?

because stock manipulation is good for business (when you can lower the price to something you want to pay).

post #13 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!

I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell View Post


As somebody else said, the issue is timing. September is the big back to school season. Further, people are likely spending money on gifts for others because of the holidays. These purchases will be things like iPods, iPhones, and iPads. 

Neither the 13" rMBP nor the new iMac will have been available for a full quarter by Dec 31. That can explain a lot.
post #14 of 118
It mostly to do with the timing of the iMac refresh. Desktops are still 20% of Apple's computer sales. The refresh has put a pause on sales. The 21" model is basically unavailable for a month and the 27" model is unavailable for two months.
post #15 of 118
many desktop Mac buyers simply are waiting for the new models. the new Mini went on sale some weeks ago, but the iMac not yet - almost a two month wait so far. that alone would account for the entire difference - laptops keep selling as usual, and 7% isn't much. duh. takes an "analyst" to figure that out?

more interesting will be the next quarter, when Windows 8 refugees will start looking at Macs instead.
post #16 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alfiejr View Post

more interesting will be the next quarter, when Windows 8 refugees will start looking at Macs instead.

Good point. It could be an absolute blowout of a quarter.

post #17 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by shuntsu View Post

It's all tablets this year - macs (and PCs) are just not gonna be the big sellers they once were.

What are you talking about? Apple never sold as many macs. in 2007 they sold 5 million (the whole year). Ignorant.

post #18 of 118
Well the clusterf*ck screw up that was the late iMac refresh will certainly account for any drop.
Edited by saarek - 11/20/12 at 1:44pm
iPad, Macbook Pro, iPhone, heck I even have iLife! :-)
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iPad, Macbook Pro, iPhone, heck I even have iLife! :-)
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post #19 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points so that their market share can be increased.

We have been hearing this for years. Every mac user and his uncle has been advising Apple on how to break into the enterprise and increase their sales by doing what you suggest in spite of Apple repeatedly stating that they are not concerned with the numbers as long as they are building the best devices with the best user experiences they possibly can. Apple is not just saying that because they are selling less computers than Dell or HP. They say it because that is what they do. Steve Jobs once said words to the effect that Apple could easily make a low end machine in order to sell more units. He finished by saying that if that's what they had to do in order to survive he'd rather pack it in. What would be the point? 

post #20 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell View Post

 

 

As somebody else said, the issue is timing. September is the big back to school season. Further, people are likely spending money on gifts for others because of the holidays. These purchases will be things like iPods, iPhones, and iPads. 

But this is a year over year statistic. Was school not starting in September last year as well? Were people not buying gifts for the holidays last year either?

 

These type of changes might make a difference between quarterly reports, but a year over year statistic should not be impacted by seasonal variances.

post #21 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by e_veritas View Post

But this is a year over year statistic. Was school not starting in September last year as well? Were people not buying gifts for the holidays last year either?

 

These type of changes might make a difference between quarterly reports, but a year over year statistic should not be impacted by seasonal variances.

 

The only change being the iPad mini.

 

I want to see the PC numbers. They should be down 16-20% if Apple is down 7%. If not then Tim has some 'splainin' to do.

 

Maybe he's just trying to get his legs.

Hmmmmmm...
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Hmmmmmm...
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post #22 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBell View Post


As somebody else said, the issue is timing. September is the big back to school season. Further, people are likely spending money on gifts for others because of the holidays. These purchases will be things like iPods, iPhones, and iPads. 

Can't be timing because the comparison is based on the same quarter as last year. This estimate is a real decline. The reasons will have to be analyzed. The drop in Apples stock may have made their products seem less attractive.
post #23 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!

 

I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?

Because you can't actually buy half the stuff they refreshed.

post #24 of 118

No need to make any excuse, let's face it iPad and iPad mini are going to make fewer people buy Macs and PCs in general, plus there's also this low end segments filled by tablets by Google and Amazon. Expensive computers are hard sell these days especially when consumers are mostly just using them to browse the web or watch movies. It's not a AAPL issue, although since AAPL sells the highest end computers they'd actually be the most impacted because the price diff is so big people would think twice before buying a $2.5k retina macbook pro instead of a $329 iPad mini that can do 80% of the things and is lighter and thinner.

post #25 of 118
If this report predicting slowing Mac sales proves to be accurate, it is only a reflection of the broader displacement of desk and laptop computers. AAPL is the big winner in the transition to the tablet and smartphone. It stands to reason that with the increasing capabilities of the iPad and iPhone, its legacy (albeit beautifully refreshed) products will also see moderating sales.
post #26 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points so that their market share can be increased.


Bingo. I've been saying that for 27 years.

post #27 of 118
I just would like to remind people that last quarter, IDC estimated that Apple's Mac sales would be down by 6%, and Gartner estimated 9%. But sales were actually up 1%.

So keep this in mind for now.
post #28 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!

 

I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?

Maybe because some of the refresh has still yet to show up!  21.5" iMacs in November...  November 30th?!

 

27" iMacs in December...  After Christmas?  

 

Sure you got the new 13" Retina Macbook Pro and the other Macbooks but not all of us are waiting for that...  So I can see why sales are expected to be lower regarding Mac numbers.

/

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post #29 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post


Can't be timing because the comparison is based on the same quarter as last year. This estimate is a real decline. The reasons will have to be analyzed. The drop in Apples stock may have made their products seem less attractive.

the comparison is made on a guess of this year and last year's whole numbers.  and it's an Estimate based on an Estimate (It's not even Gene's numbers, but his interpretations of NPD's numbers).

 

It's not a real decline until apple posts numbers.

 

What sort of bizarre logic is apple stock price have to do with consumer purchase?   I've heard that in the past by the corporate sales Microsoft/IBM FUDdie duddies  ('Don't buy that, they'll be out of business next year'), but really?

 

The reasons for not a buying a mac now are pretty obvious.

 

We are still in a consumer recession.   if there are 12Million people out of work... they sure as sh*t aren't buying a new $1000 device.  They may buy a phone, but a $1000 mac?  hardly.  Remember, we're 4 years into it now... Mac sales have grown in real numbers through out this mess, and just now are starting to taper off, probably because most people are 'making do' (My last Mac purchase was 2.5 years ago, and I'm in Tech... See next).

 

The negative impact of Quality:  Mac Products last longer than 3 years.  My Macbooks are 3 and 4 years old.  My Son in grad school is running on a 2003 G4 Titanium Powerbook (granted we cobbled it together with another when one motherboard died and the other's screen died in 2008).  My other son in med school replaced a 2005 MacBookPro. with a new MBA in August.  

 

Osborne Effect:  Why buy a Mac in October when Apple announced new products on Oct 23rd, and didn't ship until November (or december)  

 

Win8 and Surface Release:  I think a lot of potential MBA buyers held off until the new crop of Microsoft stuff came to market.  Give them 6 months;-), and 25% will be craigslist fodder and they'll buy a MBA or an iPad.

 

Self Competition: I wouldn't be surprised if the new iPad and Mini cannibalizes the MBA/iMac. How many people NEED a brand new desktop mac?  your old mac works just fine when you are wandering through the house with absolutely beautiful iPad 4 or light as a feather iPadMini connected via icloud.

 

(my iPad does a better job with mp4s than my mac, and it's brutally easy to AirPlay them to my TVs... I've got one long HDMI cable for sale because of this).

 

So in short, let's wait till Jan 2xth for the real numbers, and understand we are post desktop... and a lot of jobs done by a Mac are now being done by a computer 1/2 the price in the iPad.

post #30 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post
The drop in Apples stock may have made their products seem less attractive.

Hmmm..... I think there's a causality problem in your statement.

post #31 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Hmmm..... I think there's a causality problem in your statement.


C'mon, Anan... you know damn well that at least 95% of buyers of computers watch the price of AAPL!  1tongue.gif

Hmmmmmm...
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Hmmmmmm...
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post #32 of 118

The recent releases havent been good exactly.

ive returned two macbook pro retinas due serious issues. the screens are faulty as hell. both had ghosting /IR issues.

Now ive left the mac after 17 years of being a macuser. will order my samsung laptop soon.
 

post #33 of 118

all wrong answers.

 

iMacs are used for playing World of Warcraft (Mist of Pandaria). Period.

 

Sarah.

post #34 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post


Can't. If Apple wants to maintain quality, margins, and continue to dominate in PC consumer satisfaction (for many years now), they need to forego market share in favour of simply being the best, but with barriers to consumer entry that are naturally occurring with the necessary increase in price. 

I really don't think Apple minds that situation.

Where the Mac can't go in retail, however, the iPad will. 

It's a win-win for Apple. 

You should try bigger font. This one still doesn't look convincing enough.
post #35 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by nikon133 View Post


You should try bigger font. This one still doesn't look convincing enough.

 

Trolls lack vision. 

post #36 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

They need to reduce prices and produce models for the general public at all price points so that their market share can be increased.

 

No.

post #37 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!

I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?

It was, and I'm sure it has something to do with it but the bigger reason is that we are in a Post PC world. If Apple loses a Mac sale to another PC OEM or other tablet OEM then it truly is a loss for Apple but we need to prepare ourselves that modern tablets are more than adequate for most people for most of their tasks.

One thing I've seen from Mac users isn't so much that they are giving up their Macs but that they aren't replacing them as often as they use to. It's affects the sales numbers. I used to buy a new 13" MBP with each revision but stopped doing that in 2010. I assume the I Pad had something to do with that. I will be buying a 27" iMac (moving away from notebooks, again because of the iPad) ASAP. I figure this will be my last Mac purchase for many years.

I do wonder what those not want Win8 will do moving forward. I will be a slow burn but Apple could easily reap the rewards. To me, the only important metric isn't the growth of the PC market but the growth of the PC sans Macs that will tell us the health of Macs in the market. Fir example, if we look at the PMP market the iPod is still king despite the drop in sales

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post #38 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!

 

I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?

 

IMacs are not available.  When they do next quarter, they will sell like hotcakes.

 

13" rMBPs are too expensive. $1,699 for 128GB SSD?  Not many buyers at these prices, I'm guessing.

 

Mac Pro's will be refreshed next quarter/year.  Who would buy now?

 

Mac mini's are probably selling at the same rate as before.  The Fusion Drive is a major attractive feature.

 

That leaves Macbook Airs (very attractive price/feature combinations), 15" rMBP (somewhat well-priced - at least better than 13" rMBP) and regular Macbook Pro's.

 

I am guessing there will be a significant drop in sales this quarter.

post #39 of 118

As a few other apparently overly perceptive people have posted...

 

There is a lull in sales-so-far, because people were and still are waiting for newer models to be released. How an analyst can project current sales for the rest of the quarter is remarkably naive. New iMacs were released before the 1st fiscal quarter (fourth, calendar) began last year so it was easier to predict then.

Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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post #40 of 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Given a major refresh of the Mac product line-up, why are sales expected to be down?!g

I thought that was the excuse for last quarter?

You need to take into account the imacs have not started to sell yet. Everyone that wants one is waiting, so if they only sell 1 millions of those they will bust last year number.

The retina MBP are high end machines and are very expensive, they wont sell in big numbers. The bulk of the sales are going to be MBA and the 21.5 imac when it comes out.

I must agree that Apple will never have large pc sales until they can produce something below 1000. Maybe with ssd prices going down they will be able to it with air in a few years.

And if the Airs come out with a decent special on black friday, they may clear out inventory and boost those numbers a bit.
Edited by herbapou - 11/20/12 at 3:56pm
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