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Fiscal 2013 predicted to become 'a year to forget' for Apple, higher hopes seen for 2014

post #1 of 60
Thread Starter 
Investors will likely look back on Apple's fiscal year 2013 as "a year to forget," though it will set the stage for a strong 2014, one analyst believes.

Fiscal
The performance of Apple's stock so far in fiscal year 2013.


Ahead of Apple's earnings report for its second quarter of fiscal 2013, Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets issued a note to investors on Tuesday in which he lowered some of his estimates. He now expects Apple to see revenue of $36.5 billion in its third quarter, down from a previous forecast of $43.3 billion, while earnings per share was also cut from $10.42 to $7.83.

White believes Apple's profit cycle likely bottomed out in its recently-concluded March quarter. But he sees the company setting the stage for a strong turnaround, the benefits of which he expects to be seen in the company's fiscal year 2014.

Apple's so-called "year to forget" will be driven by slowdown in the high-end smartphone market, which has negatively affected Apple's growth, White said. His projections call for the company to see a 1 percent decrease in earnings per share during fiscal 2013, which would be the first annual decline since fiscal 2003.

Looking forward to Apple's fiscal 2014, which will begin in October, White expects that Apple will see new growth by expanding the iPhone lineup with a new low-end model. Rumors have suggested the company is working on a low-cost model with a plastic body that could be sold without the need for a carrier contract subsidy.

White also hopes that Apple will introduce products in entirely new categories in fiscal 2014, namely a full-fledged television set and a so-called "iWatch" wrist accessory. Finally, he also expects that Apple will reach an agreement with China Mobile, the largest carrier in the world, to begin offering the iPhone.

Beyond those new growth opportunities, White believes Apple should leverage its $137.1 billion cash balance to attract investors and built a "safety net" around the stock. The analyst has been an outspoken proponent of Apple paying out a higher dividend to investors.

Despite the downward revisions in its estimates, Topeka Capital Markets has maintained a "buy" rating and 12-month price target for AAPL stock of $888 ? more than twice its current trading levels.
post #2 of 60

By a year to forget they mean 50 billion in net profit?

Oh boy.

 

So google's 10 billion profit will be better?

 

What about the others?

post #3 of 60
A year to forget? What are we forgetting? that the analysts had their heads too far up their arses to make accurate predictions?

I don't recall anyone from Apple ever claiming that their stock would climb to $1000 a share.
post #4 of 60
Apple could use all the cash it has and borrow some more to buy Google, Licence Android in the future, make use of all the cool Google technology. The Stock at that point would climb back to 700 easily, regaining the lost market cap. Now this is pure speculation, but my comments are not a whole lot different than the Analysts reports.
post #5 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by firhill07 View Post

Apple could use all the cash it has and borrow some more to buy Google, Licence Android in the future, make use of all the cool Google technology. The Stock at that point would climb back to 700 easily, regaining the lost market cap. Now this is pure speculation, but my comments are not a whole lot different than the Analysts reports.

 

 

You lost me at cool new Google technology. 

post #6 of 60

Considering the popularity of the iPhone 5 and the iPad mini, I predict that Apple are going to surprise the analysts. Yes, Apple had supply problems with the 5 but that's only because they sold so many. There was a slight wait for the iMac and a wait for the new Mac Pro but these things aren't really their main business any more.

post #7 of 60
Originally Posted by TBell View Post
You lost me at cool new Google technology. 

 

Think about it. Apple buys Google and gets:

 

The framework for an Apple-based self-driving car.

A search algorithm to use for Spotlight (and then release publicly to slap in Google's face).

Proof of theft of IP in Android (which is obviously shut down completely).

Servers to wipe clean and run iCloud on.

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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post #8 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Think about it. Apple buys Google and gets:

 

The framework for an Apple-based self-driving car.

A search algorithm to use for Spotlight (and then release publicly to slap in Google's face).

Proof of theft of IP in Android (which is obviously shut down completely).

Servers to wipe clean and run iCloud on.

If Apple bought Google how would Spotlight be a slap in Google's face??1confused.gif

melior diabolus quem scies
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melior diabolus quem scies
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post #9 of 60
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post
f Apple bought Google how would Spotlight be a slap in Google's face??1confused.gif

 

Releasing Google's search publicly. Just freely allowing anyone else to use the algorithm.


But anyway, this is all fantasy in the first place. An Apple->Google purchase would be blocked by every government.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

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post #10 of 60

Apple can't win with Wall Street analysts in particular and the street overall.  The business model that Apple established goes so far against the typical MBA or McKinsey-style consultant-based business models that it doesn't matter if they over-perform to expectations - that simply means they'll do worse in the future, according to the analyst.  If they underperform, then it means they're quickly going to go out of business because their whole model is wrong.

 

I'm always perplexed - do financial analysts not know what good fundamentals are?  Judging any company based upon quarterly results does not make sense - unless the trend cycling downward.  RIM is a perfect example, but even there, analysts cut them WAY too much slack for far too long.  Their fundamental business was for crap, but for a long time they still got support from the street.  

post #11 of 60

The essential part of this article is neatly and so eloquently framed in the last three words of the first paragraph. It probably would have been better to have made that alone the headline. 

post #12 of 60

Really, AI, quit posting this analyst stuff already. We get it. Analysts are nothing more than Tarot card readers, chicken bone prognosticators, tea leaf seers, and aborted phrenologists. Analysts should have names like "The Amazing Karnac" or "Madam Kolache."

 

I'm tired of them.

post #13 of 60

Do whatever you want Tim Cook (aggressive share buybacks, acquisition, large iphones, china mobile deals new products etc) but do not raise the dividend for the speculative shareholders. You will drain your company's cash reserve and would achieve nothing!  I own Apple stocks from 450 level but I do not want that Pucking dividend!

post #14 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Think about it. Apple buys Google and gets:

 

The framework for an Apple-based self-driving car.

A search algorithm to use for Spotlight (and then release publicly to slap in Google's face).

Proof of theft of IP in Android (which is obviously shut down completely).

Servers to wipe clean and run iCloud on.

So last week you were suggesting Apple take the company private for $380B and now this. Yeah, buy GOOG. Great use of $269B...Not!  

 

None of the advantages you cite are worth a nickel in my opinion.

 

Self driving car! LOL that will be a high revenue generating product /s

 

Search algorithm for spotlight LOL another cash cow /s

 

Proof of IP theft LOL so if they own GOOG what are they going to do, sue themselves?

 

The storage and datacenter infrastructure might be worth something but Google is famous for using inexpensive commodity server boxes.

 

Never going to happen!

Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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post #15 of 60

These guys always seem to forget that Apple makes the iPad. iPhone growth might slow because they've saturated markets in the developed world, but the iPad still has a long way to go. Margins will shrink but revenues will keep growing.

post #16 of 60

Anal-ysts still see Apple as a hardware vendor instead of a platform vendor.

Apple has plenty of software services that increasingly make money in addition to hardware.  (iTunes, iAD, iCloud, iBooks, Siri, AppleMap) And more are coming... (iRadio, iTV?)

 

Analysts really need to start analyzing Apple's platforms.  They will learn within 3 to 6 months.

 

Time will tell.

post #17 of 60
Anyone remember what Apple's guidance for this quarter was.

That is the only thing I compare to, because Apple knows what Apple is about to do or not do, how many units they can produce etc. Even if they aren't telling us these facts they are using them.

Unlike these analysts with their sources. Frankly I think some of them are reading the squeeze marks in the dog poop steaming on the sidewalk, or worse

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #18 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Think about it. Apple buys Google and gets:

 

The framework for an Apple-based self-driving car.

A search algorithm to use for Spotlight (and then release publicly to slap in Google's face).

Proof of theft of IP in Android (which is obviously shut down completely).

Servers to wipe clean and run iCloud on.

 

Tim, I hope you're paying attention! :D

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #19 of 60

"...hopes that Apple will introduce products in entirely new categories in fiscal 2014"

 

Ah yes, the pipeline. Forget 2013. There is stuff. In the pipeline. Check back next year.

post #20 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmgregory1 View Post

 Judging any company based upon quarterly results does not make sense -

It's better than judging against last year.

But both are stupid when you don't consider the facts. Like last year there was a new product launch during the same time. R last quarter was holiday shopping. These kinds of things cause an expected drop in sales and should be accounted for.

And making estimates way over those of the company when they have a plethora of facts guiding them is just whacked

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #21 of 60

"White believes Apple should leverage its $137.1 billion cash balance to attract investors and built a "safety net" around the stock."

 

This is exactly what Apple should NOT do! Investors not being attracted by APPL is their own problem not Apple's...

post #22 of 60
"It's like the 1980s all over again" /s

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #23 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

By a year to forget they mean 50 billion in net profit?

Oh boy.

 

So google's 10 billion profit will be better?

 

What about the others?

 

The 50 billionish profit is already built into Apple's market cap.  It is why Apple is worth so much money.  Wall Street, and most investors, don't really focus on market cap, they focus on growth.

 

If I have $10,000 dollars to invest do I care if I put into Apple valued at @400 billion or a little known company worth a total of $1 million?  No.  What I care about is next year.  If Apple made 50 billion again and is valued somewhere around where I bought, and the little company made 'only' $9 million in profit which is the one I'm more enthused about?

 

I care about growth.  Even though Apple made a whopping 50 billion yet again my $10,000 is still only worth $10,000.  With the small fish that only made $9mil in profit my $10,000 is now worth $100,000.  My choice is pretty easy.

 

Apple is making a ton o dough and, more importantly- great products.  Love Apple for that, but invest with your logic, not your love.  Apple is spikey.  Every new major phone release gives them a spike.  The iPhone 5 was last years spike and finally moved Apple ahead of Android for a few months after several quarters of Android domination.  The iPhone 6, and the next spike, is another year and a half away.  The 5s will give another blip more that a spike.  Apple gets spikes like that because of its rabid fans =)  Only 1 in 5 iPhones was a new user, the rest were Apple fans rushing out to update their old phones.  Now that all the Apple fans have rushed out and have the iPhone 5 the downside is sales tend to drop off fairly quickly.

 

A big part of Apples prior valuation had been speculation.  They built a large amont of value into the price based on speculation of Apple hitting the 'next' home run.  Apple didn't.  They have not yet even really stepped up to the plate.  That part of the value built into the stock is largely what fizzled out as well.  It looks like Apple won't even really get back up to bat until next year, and there is no guarantee that what they are going to hit will be a home run.

post #24 of 60
Originally Posted by mstone View Post
So last week you were suggesting Apple take the company private for $380B and now this.

 

1) I never suggested that. 

2) You cannot possibly think that I was seriously considering a Google purchase, even if you DIDN'T read the post that came after that one.


Self driving car! LOL that will be a high revenue generating product /s

 

You're right¡ No one on the face of the Earth has a car¡ What good would that be¡


Search algorithm for spotlight LOL another cash cow /s

 

Are you just pretending to be stupid? It works for Google.


Proof of IP theft LOL so if they own GOOG what are they going to do, sue themselves?

 

I'm not even sure you're pretending to be stupid anymore. How's "have closure" sound?! That at the very least. At most, they'd be able to sue the individuals responsible for (or complicit in) the theft.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #25 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmgregory1 View Post

Apple can't win with Wall Street analysts in particular and the street overall.  The business model that Apple established goes so far against the typical MBA or McKinsey-style consultant-based business models that it doesn't matter if they over-perform to expectations - that simply means they'll do worse in the future, according to the analyst.  If they underperform, then it means they're quickly going to go out of business because their whole model is wrong.

 

I'm always perplexed - do financial analysts not know what good fundamentals are?  Judging any company based upon quarterly results does not make sense - unless the trend cycling downward.  RIM is a perfect example, but even there, analysts cut them WAY too much slack for far too long.  Their fundamental business was for crap, but for a long time they still got support from the street.  

I agree with your analysis. The way Wall Street is treating AAPL (because they don't know who Apple is) is the way the Oakland A's were treated as highlighted in the movie Moneyball. The archaic baseball scouts only knew one way to do things and using a computer wasn't ever in the discussion. Along came Oakland followed by the Red Sox showing that there were other ways to evaluate a player. Believe the movie or not, the telling comment was at the end when a scout (or baseball manager) ripped apart the A's way even though it worked. Apple does things the way they want to do and just because it doesn't match the stupidity of the right coast doesn't mean the left coast's way of doing things is wrong.

 

Wall Street needs to be shut down because it's gambling run amok. Nothing that is happening on Wall Street benefits the common person in this world, it only benefits stock traders and those who choose to act irresponsibly.

post #26 of 60
to be honest, all this negative press for them is probably the best thing that could happen for AAPL. wall street always had such high expectations for earnings. well above apple's guidance. and when apple made a killing in profits & revenue, all hell would break loose because they missed analyst predictions by a small margin.
perhaps now wall street will lower their expectations to something reasonable and apple can start meeting them.
post #27 of 60
I am so sick of everybody acting like stock price=health of company, because it doesn't. Go and look at the fundamentals of any dozen companies. Compare all the relevant ratios (e.g. profit as a percentage of sale) and then see if there is any rhyme or reason to the price of the stock. You'll find companies all over the place.

The stock market is a place where people use companies to gamble their money. But here people manipulate and act irrationally in order to make short-term gains. Apple is being run well and "Apple is Doomed" means that Apple doesn't continue to make gains that are many multiple times their competitors and for that matter any company over and over again.

It's like saying "OMG LeBron is only scoring 20 point a game instead of 25, they should trade him." All these analysts and hyperactive shareholders should go screw themselves. I want Apple to keep making great products not chasing the stock price. As Steve said, if you take care of the top line and have a great strategy everything will work out. In the mean time, quit using the stock price as a proxy for Apple's performance.
post #28 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frood View Post

The 50 billionish profit is already built into Apple's market cap.  It is why Apple is worth so much money.  Wall Street, and most investors, don't really focus on market cap, they focus on growth.

 

If I have $10,000 dollars to invest do I care if I put into Apple valued at @400 billion or a little known company worth a total of $1 million?  No.  What I care about is next year.  If Apple made 50 billion again and is valued somewhere around where I bought, and the little company made 'only' $9 million in profit which is the one I'm more enthused about?

 

I care about growth.  Even though Apple made a whopping 50 billion yet again my $10,000 is still only worth $10,000.  With the small fish that only made $9mil in profit my $10,000 is now worth $100,000.  My choice is pretty easy. ...

 

I think everyone should stop pretending that investors as a whole make decisions about stocks on any sort of rational basis. If they did, stock manipulation wouldn't be so easy.

post #29 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by JollyPaul View Post

"...hopes that Apple will introduce products in entirely new categories in fiscal 2014"

 

Ah yes, the pipeline. Forget 2013. There is stuff. In the pipeline. Check back next year.

'Entirely New' Categories.  iPod, iPhone, iPad.   That sort of stuff.   Not a Retina iPad Mini, or a iPhone 5s.

 

IOW, they are saying Apple's TV is delayed till next FY (begins Oct 1, just in time for your US holiday shopping season).

 

IOW, what we already suspected.

 

Apple is evolving to be a 'innovation cyclical' stock.  It's niche is selling the top 7% of global population (earners over 15K USD/year)  in the world, to about 0.5Billion people per 2 year cycle.   It needs an innovation for haloing it's product line to sell the entire suite (phone, pad, desktop, laptop, cloud, iTunes, AppleCare, and some Apps and infrastructure [TimeCapsule])... Because eventually, you run out of your market, and unless you motivate more to buy, you'll eventually run out of 'insanely great' reasons to spend 20-40% more for the synergy, and/or your competitors catch up, and all you do is sell to the converted.   No Growth.

 

 

So if you look at Apple's stock from 97 to present  you see 4 great ramps.  iMac (97-01 [DotBomb])  iPod 03-06, iPhone (07-08 with a global meltdown), iPad (10-12)

 

And % wise, the past 6 months aren't as bad 2008-09, or 2005-2006, or 2000-2001.   

 

This isn't a year to forget... it's a year to remember 'how bad _Bad_ used to be...' ;-)

 

all that said, the question is, will Apple create a new innovation, or just 'add chrome' to the current lineup (think Chevy circa 1958, not google).   If the latter, then they are basically in a 'land war in asia' (see http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0093779/trivia?tab=qt ) and at best it will be maintaining current market slice.  If the Former, something that is insanely great and something only Apple can do, then you will see another 2 year acceleratory bump in earnings, and therefore stock price.

 

Because as Asymco.com noted a long time ago, apple's stock price is pretty much tied to it's cash in the bank, and little else.


Edited by TheOtherGeoff - 4/23/13 at 11:09am
post #30 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Barrett Falter View Post

Android is actually getting cleaner.  Looking at the HTC One I can say I'm likely going to buy this handset if it comes to Verizon.  I think that this handset is what Apple should have done with the iPhone 5 and was too lazy or unable to do.  I'm tired of the dated iOS look and feel and all of the hardware limitations.  The habit of Apple doing a trickle effect in hardware releases has grown stale and change needs to be made.  Just as Apple's customer service seemingly having gotten worse too.  Everyone has their own conceptions of how Apple is.  Mine is that the golden days have passed and the future looks murky.  
Just curious what Apple's hardware limitations are? NFC?
post #31 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post


Just curious what Apple's hardware limitations are? NFC?

No mini-usb, no removable battery, no removable memory, no available blender attachment, the screen isn't 27" diagonal, when set to "stun" they hardly even slow down....

post #32 of 60
Could Apple Insider stop quoting "Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets" recurring garbage? Every of his biased predictions about Apple turned wrong lately, it is maybe time to notice...
post #33 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Originally Posted by mstone View Post
So last week you were suggesting Apple take the company private for $380B and now this.

 

1) I never suggested that. 

 

Sure you did.

 

http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/157037/shares-of-apple-sink-after-supplier-cirrus-warns-of-weak-results/40

 

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich 
Opportune time for Apple to buy back their stock though.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Yep. All of it.

 

I'm laughing at you because you suggested spending billions on stupid things like "closure" on IP theft.lol.gif Apple acquires other companies for profit, not closure.

Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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post #34 of 60
Originally Posted by mstone View Post
Sure you did.

 

Not at that price, nope. Never have I suggested that.


I'm laughing at you because you suggested spending billions on stupid things like "closure" on IP theft.lol.gif Apple acquires other companies for profit, not closure.

 

And your implication that purchasing Google, while a mildly outlandish and thoroughly illegal idea, would not be profitable, is causing me to laugh at you, in turn.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #35 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

And your implication that purchasing Google, while a mildly outlandish and thoroughly illegal idea, would not be profitable, is causing me to laugh at you, in turn.

Oh stop it. You said you want to give away the search business and no mention of Google's ad business whatsoever which are the only areas that they make any money and somehow you suggest it would be profitable for Apple to buy them. Emotional investing is a losing proposition. Your common sense is being clouded by your irrational hatred. There is absolutely no good reason to entertain the notion of Apple buying Google even if there were no anticompetitive obstacles.

Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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post #36 of 60
Originally Posted by mstone View Post
There is absolutely no good reason to entertain the notion of Apple buying Google even if there were no anticompetitive obstacles.

 

Except for the reasons I stated, of course.

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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post #37 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Originally Posted by mstone View Post
There is absolutely no good reason to entertain the notion of Apple buying Google even if there were no anticompetitive obstacles.

 

Except for the reasons I stated, of course.

You mean the same reasons like the Coyote thought it would be a good idea to buy the Acme company?

Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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Life is too short to drink bad coffee.

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post #38 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Really, AI, quit posting this analyst stuff already. We get it. Analysts are nothing more than Tarot card readers, chicken bone prognosticators, tea leaf seers, and aborted phrenologists. Analysts should have names like "The Amazing Karnac" or "Madam Kolache."

 

I'm tired of them.


The problem is that these are the articles that get the most hits.  It's bait.  I typically only read the stuff about...stuff...on this site.  Anything about numbers forecasting that isn't a direct quote of an Apple executive is pretty boring to me.  But it sure gets a lot of readers fired up.  Suggestion: do what I do and refuse to click 9 out of 10 times.  If not out of boredom, on principle.

post #39 of 60
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Releasing Google's search publicly. Just freely allowing anyone else to use the algorithm.


But anyway, this is all fantasy in the first place. An Apple->Google purchase would be blocked by every government.

Except it would then be Apples search algorithm freely used by everyone since they owned Google. lol.gif

melior diabolus quem scies
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post #40 of 60
Originally Posted by mstone View Post
You mean the same reasons like the Coyote thought it would be a good idea to buy the Acme company?

 

Acme had self-driving cars (that didn't explode on contact), a great search algorithm (that didn't redirect all searches to bulk purchasing of nitroglycerin), server infrastructure (that wasn't running Exploding@Home), and documentation that it had stolen its product ideas from Wile Co.?

 


Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post
Except it would then be Apples search algorithm freely used by everyone since they owned Google. lol.gif


You don't think the creators thereof (not employed by Apple) would be a little miffed, at any rate?

Originally posted by Relic

...those little naked weirdos are going to get me investigated.
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Originally posted by Relic

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