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Analyst recants claim that Apple will add Retina display to iPad mini before 2014

post #1 of 39
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NPD DisplaySearch analyst Richard Shim has reversed his earlier prediction that Apple would add a Retina resolution to its iPad mini at some point before 2014.

Mini site


Shim first said in May that he expected Apple to release an iPad mini with the same Retina Display resolution as its full sized iPad 4 model this fall, then spoke of the new model coming in the "second half" of 2013, followed by another new iPad mini model in calendar Q1 2014.

However, Shim has now changed his forecast again, stating in a new report that "Apple is expected to refresh its iPad mini in the second half of the year. The new iPad mini will continue to use a 7.9-inch display with a [non-Retina] 1024?768 resolution, but it will use the iOS 7 operating system and an A6 processor, in a slimmer design than the current generation."

Shim also thinks Apple will release a revamped, full size iPad powered by an as yet unannounced "A7" processor, and says "Apple?s mix of tablet PC shipments is projected to be 60% iPad mini and 40% iPad in 2013."

OEMs seek to copy iPad mini's success



Including competing tablets, Shim wrote that "tablet PCs with screen sizes smaller than 9 inches are currently forecasted to account for 66% of tablet PC shipments for the year," adding that he expects that figure to increase with a refreshed new iPad mini and other "new 8-inch tablets" in the third quarter from Acer, Asus, Dell and Lenovo.

Shim wrote that iPad-sized tablets "made up over 60% of total tablet PCs shipped in 2012," but he expects this figure to reverse in favor of smaller sized tablets. But rather than following the 7 inch trend established by early Android devices, Shim thinks other makers will follow Apple's lead with a new crop of 8 inch tablets.

"While tablet PCs with 7 inch displays appear to be heading for the low end of the market (less than $200)," he wrote, "Apple?s iPad mini with its 7.9-inch display has captured a significant share of the market, despite its starting price of $329. Brands are hoping to expand this 'middle class,' gaining some share and slightly better margins than 7-inch tablet PCs."

Tweener tablets taper off, twice



Nearly three years ago, Apple's Steve Jobs noted that there were only "a handful of credible entrants" among the "avalanche" of Android devices being launched in late 2010 and said that they were forced to used a "tweener" 7 inch form factor to hit low price points in order to compete with the iPad.

He predicted hardware makers would return with larger sizes, which they did the next year alongside the launch of Android 3.0 Honeycomb. After that wave of devices failed, Google launched its Nexus 7 with Asus amid much fanfare, and many pundits predicted Jobs was wrong and that small tablets would eviscerate iPad sales.

When Apple subsequently launched its own iPad mini with a larger 7.8 inch screen, many critics again jumped on Jobs' comments, but were again proven wrong as cheaper 7 inch devices failed to sell in quantities comparable to the iPad mini.

If Shim's outlook for a new wave of 8 inch tablets is correct, it will again fulfill Jobs' prediction that smaller "tweener" tablets, nearly always sold with smartphone-style, widescreen ratio screens, aren't the right size to run satisfying tablet apps.
post #2 of 39
Remember: Apple never promised ANYTHING. The rumor mill has been busy making things up. Now they're shuffling around their fictional stories about Apple's next iPad mini.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

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post #3 of 39
One word to say to this Analyst: "IDIOT".
post #4 of 39
Well, that kind of sucks actually. I was hoping to be able to trade my Retina iPad 3rd gen for a Retina Mini this fall. I love the size and weight of the Mini but can't go back to a regular display after having the Retina, especially with this one being smaller. Smaller type needs Retina resolutions even more than the regular sizes.
post #5 of 39

Honestly, after being made to love Retina by its introduction across every other major product, I'd be disappointed.

post #6 of 39
Rumors as a way of manipulating the stock market....
Besides: much more important would be MacBook Air with retina displays; the iPad minis are close to retina resolution anyway due to the smaller screen sizes, a quadrupling of the resolution on the iPad mini has marginal impact for usability, but big effect on battery life and cost; barely worth the effort for that class of device.
post #7 of 39
Looks like my Apple purchases will be on hold until iPad mini has retina, faster processor + 128g, iPhone comes as a phablet, update to Apple TV box.
post #8 of 39

Anybody talking about any retina iPad Mini is just making up fictional stories inside of their heads.

 

I hope that they don't come out with a retina iPad Mini this year, just to annoy the people who have supposedly been waiting on one. Let them wait longer.lol.gif

 

Meanwhile, I have a retina iPad 3, and I also have a non retina Mini which I like too. They are for different uses, with the Mini being far lighter and more portable. A retina iPad Mini is going to make it fatter, heavier and reduce battery time. And judging by how the iPad Mini is selling, I doubt that Apple is any rush to get rid of the non retina iPad Mini. Apple doesn't care about a tiny group of people on the internet who are going to wait for a retina iPad Mini before they supposedly buy one.

post #9 of 39
I am increasingly thinking iPad Mini wont come with Retina this year. ( Edit: Actually since it is near end of June now, unless things changes Rapidly in the next 2 - 3 months it is very unlikely we see it this year.) Most likely due to stock and supply chain issues. It will be Retina when

TSMC start producing SoC for Apple.
IGZO is Ready for iPhone

Two very important factor. And it is not like iPad Mini are in need of a Retina version. The Mini is selling just fine.
post #10 of 39

Two non-retina iPad Mini generations!!?? Ugghhhh. I was hoping for a retina mini this fall but looks like I'll be waiting longer (if this rumour is true). If I have to wait, I really hope they are delaying it because they want to use IGZO.

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post #11 of 39

It's a shame if true.

post #12 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by jameskatt2 View Post

One word to say to this Analyst: "IDIOT".

I've said it before & I'll say it again, "Anal-yst" guess what their sources are? 1tongue.gif

post #13 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by TitanTiger View Post

Well, that kind of sucks actually. I was hoping to be able to trade my Retina iPad 3rd gen for a Retina Mini this fall. I love the size and weight of the Mini but can't go back to a regular display after having the Retina, especially with this one being smaller. Smaller type needs Retina resolutions even more than the regular sizes.

I think you will really enjoy the iPad 5 which will adopt many of the weight and form factor characteristics of the mini, whilst retaining the screen size of the original. Even if they could make an iPad mini with retina display this year they would be mad to because it simply cannibalises their own profit in a market they already dominate.
post #14 of 39
This year Apple will probably give the iPad 5 center stage as the must-have Christmas gift with the Mini taking a back seat.

The mini may only be getting a processor bump and battery life improvements.
post #15 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by GadgetCanadaV2 View Post

Two non-retina iPad Mini generations!!??

There were two non-retina iPad generations. *shrug* Nearly everyone (myself included) thought initially the iPad 2 would be retina since the iPhone 4 was, but cooler heads (read: the guys who went ahead and said, 'hey, 2048x1536 displays just don't exist yet," and the engineers who knew it would be a travesty driving and powering them) prevailed.

Granted, there's the power to drive such a display now, but is there a battery capable of doing it in such a small package? I think that's the question.

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Originally Posted by helia

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post #16 of 39
Always amazes how so many buy this guys garbage.. As proved with the latest keynote... Apple finally seems to have "doubled down" on its plans....ie the Mac Pro... I think the only reason the mini won't get retina is because of cannibalizing the larger iPad...but ALL bets are off... I think Apples fall releases will surprise and knock some outta da park..

I'm running iOS 7 on my Iphone 5... Real real curious what it work like on iPad.... And btw people - iOS 7 is a BETA. Remember that..

I for one love it - huge improvement over iOS6.. Way way more functionality. Those beating on it are lame and haters -- par for Apple as almost all it's great ideas have been first panned one way or the other. iOS 7 is different. Way different -- don't believe the downplay going on.. I'm sure it will be further polished by release time with even more stuff to come.. Its dope 1smile.gif
post #17 of 39

If they make the next iPad Mini retina display, I'll make my next iPad purchase a mini despite swearing off the smaller screen when the mini was introduced. 

post #18 of 39
It's always been more likely year 3, when do we think we will see all current apple devices with screens retina (includes iPods) say at least a few years
post #19 of 39

Gotta love the analysts. I'm just waiting for one to bet both ways to cover the odds. He'd be as wrong as he'd be right but I'm sure one of them one day will figure that's better than being just wrong and quite stupid.

post #20 of 39

IGZO again. It's a fairy tale parents tell their hardware geeks.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #21 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


There were two non-retina iPad generations. *shrug* Nearly everyone (myself included) thought initially the iPad 2 would be retina since the iPhone 4 was, but cooler heads (read: the guys who went ahead and said, 'hey, 2048x1536 displays just don't exist yet," and the engineers who knew it would be a travesty driving and powering them) prevailed.

Granted, there's the power to drive such a display now, but is there a battery capable of doing it in such a small package? I think that's the question.

I am inclined to agree. Even the ipad3 is somewhat seen as a stopgap measure, since the A5X chip turned out to be insufficient to fully power that retina display. The ipad4 turned out to be everything the iPad3 should have been. 

 

The retina display technically already exists for the mini (at 326 PPI, isn't that essentially the current iphone displays?). I think the main issue is power consumption, and procuring those displays in sufficient quantities and price. 

post #22 of 39
Yes, a shame. I have a gen 1 iPad, was waiting for the mini to get the retina display. Oh well, guess I'll just keep waiting!
post #23 of 39

Is there a way to hide any "news" where an analyst predicts some bullshit?

post #24 of 39

There are a lot of sound technical reasons why it's unlikely, due to availability of the displays (in sufficient quantity), cost, and power consumption. But analysts tend to not know or research such facts, and rather come up with schoolboy-like dreams about what the next product will be. I also suspect we may see the new iPad appear well before any retina mini ... Apple likes to release the new high-end models before the new low end. So I foresee a mini-inspired iPad 5 (thinner, lighter, smaller bezel), and at best a spec-bumped version of the mini in the Fall. A new retina mini could then follow, after Xmas.

post #25 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by badkitteh View Post

Is there a way to hide any "news" where an analyst predicts some bullshit?
Yes... Go to a "news" site and not an Apple rumor site
post #26 of 39

My take on this is as follows:

The mini introduced a new form factor, apart from size, that will, according to all we have heard so far, will be rolled into the bigger iPad sometime this year.

The mini is also known to have cannibalized a lot (a LOT) of iPad sales, which was something Apple did not anticipate.

I therefore think it's unlikely, if also very regrettable, that Apple will introduce a drastically revamped iPad along with an even more attractive iPad mini within such a short amount of time (1 Quarter?).

 

A second argument is that a retina display would arguably increase the price of the mini beyond it currently interesting pricepoint (you can argue that it is a lot more expensive than the competition, but it is also a lot cheaper than the normal iPad).

 

I am hoping that we will see an iPad with retina display sooner rather than later, but right now, from what we know, it's probably not going to happen before Q2 2014.

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post #27 of 39
"...Apple subsequently launched its own iPad mini with a larger 7.8 inch screen..."

7.9, as in the prior references?
post #28 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

Remember: Apple never promised ANYTHING. The rumor mill has been busy making things up. Now they're shuffling around their fictional stories about Apple's next iPad mini.

Yep. These analysts and their 'sources' are starting to have doubts about what they previously pulled out of their butts so they are now into CYA mode with talk of issues, delays etc so that it won't be their fault when things are wrong.

I wouldn't be shocked if the iPad Mini never gets a Retina screen. I could see it becoming the 'cheap' iPad and that could be part of what keeps it in that price point. Could even become a bit cheaper as component prices come down. Many folks believe that while a $329 iPad mini isn't bad a $249 would be better. If it sticks with its almost Retina screen it might be able to get there.

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

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post #29 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by badkitteh View Post

Is there a way to hide any "news" where an analyst predicts some bullshit?

Remove AppleInsider from your bookmarks?

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #30 of 39
I'd be pretty disappointed as I'm holding out for the retina mini. I dont know this analyst's track record but other credible analysts have said we will see a retina display mini this year.

I want 2 of them. Otherwise I will just settle for one iPad 5 I guess. But I plan to have Aereo this fall (per Aereo, not rumor) and I am buying 3 more Apple TV boxes, and canceling my Direct TV. But I need 2 iPads to make it all perfect. ;-)
post #31 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleFanPro View Post

If they make the next iPad Mini retina display, I'll make my next iPad purchase a mini despite swearing off the smaller screen when the mini was introduced. 

 

Which is EXACTLY why the next iPad mini won't be Retina. Apple would prefer you buy a full-size iPad because they'll make more money off you!

The day after the mini was announced everyone started predicting the 2nd gen would be Retina. I said back then that it probably wouldn't be until the 3rd gen. There are too many technical, financial, and marketing arguements against a retina display iPad mini at this poing in time. Sure, there are people who want one. And surely Apple could make one. But there is no good argument why they should vs. all the reason they shouldn't: size, weight, battery life, manufacturing yields, cost, profit margins, cannibilized iPad sales, etc.
post #32 of 39
Some were expecting the MBA to go Retina too but entry model devices generally use lower cost parts in order that the margins are high enough and they also create an upsell to the more expensive models.

The iPad mini is one of those devices though where the form factor alone can make it more compelling than the larger model anyway so there's a reason to make Retina an option, even if it's not the base option.

One reason not to do it now is that it's currently selling like crazy. Apple owns the whole tablet market just now. Once the demand dies down a bit, they can use Retina to boost it - that's pretty much how any successful business model works. If they give out too much too soon, they just saturate their sales and they are left with nothing to convince people to upgrade to.
post #33 of 39
Quote:
Shim also thinks Apple will release a revamped, full size iPad

 

Will journalists please stop using this tired old shoe metaphor that few people even understand?

post #34 of 39

So why did the stock tank yesterday? Because of this analyst horse-shit? I like how cutting $30 million deals with school districts, which will later grow to the hundreds of millions, has no effect on stuck but horse-shit rumors do. 

post #35 of 39
I think IGZO is a major factor here. Without it I don't think a retina Mini is viable due to extra bulk and power consumption issues...I'm also starting to wonder if IGZO displays will ever come to market in the first place! I've been reading about this tech for ages now it seems and still no bonafide products available.
post #36 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunks View Post


I think you will really enjoy the iPad 5 which will adopt many of the weight and form factor characteristics of the mini, whilst retaining the screen size of the original. Even if they could make an iPad mini with retina display this year they would be mad to because it simply cannibalises their own profit in a market they already dominate.

Totally agree on the iPad 5.  If some of the rumors are to be believed, it may weigh as little as 16 ounces.  For a ~10" tablet that is freakin' amazing!  That's about my weight limit (including weight of a case so about 1 lb 12 oz) for extended reading at night whilst holding a tablet up in bed, so I'd go for the iPad 5 over a Mini if they hit that weight.

 

Your second point I must disagree with.  That idea is to crush the competition, and currently the iPad Mini is a pathetic joke when it comes to PPI.  My two year old Nook Color has the same PPI and it cost about $100 less than the current Mini!  Apple are obviously milking their base all they can with the low PPI Mini, but that's no way to create customer loyality.  To me it looks like they're scared that once the iPad Mini goes retina they'll be fresh out of ideas for improving it.

post #37 of 39
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

[Shim]: "The new iPad mini will continue to use a 7.9-inch display with a [non-Retina] 1024?768 resolution, but it will use the iOS 7 operating system and an A6 processor, in a slimmer design than the current generation."

 

Apple may be planning to continue differentiating the full-sized iPad by keeping it as the only Retina-class iPad.  Kind of like the consumer / Pro division in the MacBook Air / MacBook Pro lines and the iMac / Mac Pro lines.  Keeping the iPad mini non-Retina will keep its cost down and reduce its power requirements, so it can stay slim and have long battery life.  (And maybe iOS 7's non-photorealistic design will help to make the non-Retina screen look crisp.)

 

But how can Apple make the next iPad mini slimmer with the same battery life, if Shim's claims are correct?  Well, iOS 7 may or may not be using the "timer coalescing" trick that OS X Mavericks uses.  (Also used by Microsoft since Windows 7, by the way.)  Instead of frequent and random bursts of CPU activity, you see grouped activity "spikes" with increased idle time between them.  That increased idle time helps to reduce overall Mac power use, and if iOS 7 doesn't already have that feature, Apple might be able to add it before release.

 

Also, just like with the new Haswell-equipped MacBook Air, the actual hardware can make a huge difference in power efficiency too.  Maybe Apple's next-gen Ax chip will help with power efficiency in iOS devices.

 

All of which helps to keep power use down, which helps reduce battery size.  If Apple wants to put a Retina display in the iPad mini, they'll need to wait until their next-gen display technology is ready (maybe OLED with IGZO conductors.)

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post #38 of 39
It was Horace Dediu who thought that Apple might have invested $2 billion in Sharp to get IGZO displays into production.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/12/11/07/apple-may-have-invested-2-billion-to-aid-struggling-display-maker-sharp

Sharp is still in trouble, so much that Samsung is being allowed to invest in them too. I can't imagine Apple would jeopardize their investment, or do anything to weaken Sharp or the future of this technology, or further threaten their pixel-density reputation, or their commitment to making the best devices they can at any time that the tech is ready—any of these, over minor business considerations like profit margins on the iPad line or a desire to squeeze the last drop out of a low-res form-factor.

The simple answer is that IGZO production isn't ready yet.
post #39 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Granted, there's the power to drive such a display now, but is there a battery capable of doing it in such a small package? I think that's the question.

Yes.

 

If they can make the touch as ridiculously small as it is and cram all that in there with Retina- the iPad mini will be a walk in the park.

 

I know we go goo-goo about Apple's engineering- and rightfully so.  But that iPod Touch is something to marvel.

2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
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2012 27" iMac i7, 2010 27" iMac i7, 2011 Mac Mini i5
iPad Air, iPad Mini Retina, (2) iPhone 5S, iPod Touch 5
Time Capsule 5, (3) AirPort Express 2, (2) Apple TV 3

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