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Apple reportedly boosts iPhone 5s production by 75%, decreases iPhone 5c by 35%

post #1 of 53
Thread Starter 
Adding its voice to the cacophony of guesses regarding Apple's iPhone production, an NPD report on Friday claims iPhone 5s fabrication will soon be boosted by some 75 percent, while the 5c will see a drawback of 35 percent.

iphone-5c-still1-20130910.jpg


Citing channel checks, NPD Display Search "can confirm" a slowdown in iPhone 5c production, which supposedly comes along with a hefty increase in 5s orders.

The purported data was revealed in a post to NPD's Analyst Blog, a space containing articles written in a more casual tone than the company's usual research reports. A such, the piece is somewhat skewed toward the opinions of its authors, senior analysts Tina Teng and Shawn Lee, who said the sales performance of Apple's iPhone 5c has been thus far disappointing.

The analysts note two factors are accountable for the poor showing: a miscalculated China launch and consumer expectation that the phone would be "cheap."

According to the post, Apple raised the iPhone 5c's price to reach an acceptable profit margin when Chinese carriers offered competitive subsidies during the country's Golden Week holiday. This suggests Apple may have miscalculated the 5c's launch timing, Teng and Lee write, as the company was supposedly targeting the Chinese market with the device.

Further, the analysts said industry watchers and consumers were unpleasantly surprised by the 5c's base price tag, which was anticipated to be substantially lower than Apple's previous offerings. This assumption was based on early rumors claiming that the handset would be Apple's first low-cost offering.

This is contrary to reports published in the weeks leading up to the phone's debut, including a statement from the CEP of Apple's partner manufacturer Pegatron, who said the 5c would be sold as a higher end mid-tier device.

While the blog post may not be the most carefully reasoned, the data it was based on could be accurate. If so, the production cut for iPhone 5c and jump for 5s is substantial, even though Apple's original forecast is unknown.

NPD's analysis comes on the heels of a separate report from The Wall Street Journal, which cited sources as saying Apple is cutting iPhone 5c production. In a breakdown, the publication said Pegatron would see a 20-percent decrease in orders, while Foxconn is planning to cut production by roughly one third. Reuters echoed the WSJ report later that day.
post #2 of 53
"The analysts note two factors are accountable for the poor showing: a miscalculated China launch and consumer expectation that the phone would be "cheap.""

They have data on China already? What consumer expectation? Basically they are guessing. Consumers had no expectation of a 5C.
post #3 of 53
They will increase during the holiday season.
post #4 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Consumers had no expectation of a 5C.

Of course they did. Plastic phone rumours were out for months. Plastic equates to cheap in most people's minds.

Shut up and go away, you useless, pathetic FUDmonger - Tallest Skil
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Shut up and go away, you useless, pathetic FUDmonger - Tallest Skil
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post #5 of 53
That is interesting, as all I have seen in the wild so far is the iPhone 5C, though in all fairness that could be because of the color. I think it will be interesting to see how many are sold over Christmas, as carriers are no doubt going to drop the entry point to $99 with a regular contract or $0 with the newer upgrade sooner (T-Next, VZ-Edge, S-One up, TMUS-Jump) plans.

I am torn, I was thinking of getting a iPhone to swap out with my Android device occasionally and I know the iPhone 5S has the 64-bit chip, finger scanner, slightly better camera W/slow motion, but I am not sure how much that matters to MOST people.

Also just a observation, but it seems even though the iPhone 5 and iPhone 5C have the same guts the [5C] seems to spank the iPhone 5 in smoothness. Maybe clock speeds are higher, since it no doubt has better yields? My dad's iPhone 5 seems slightly off since iOS 7 [and the subsequent 7.0.2 update], I may factory restore it to see if that fixes it.
post #6 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by pkabir View Post

That is interesting, as all I have seen in the wild so far is the iPhone 5C, though in all fairness that could be because of the color. I think it will be interesting to see how many are sold over Christmas, as carriers are no doubt going to drop the entry point to $99 with a regular contract or $0 with the newer upgrade sooner (T-Next, VZ-Edge, S-One up, TMUS-Jump) plans.

I am torn, I was thinking of getting a iPhone to swap out with my Android device occasionally and I know the iPhone 5S has the 64-bit chip, finger scanner, slightly better camera W/slow motion, but I am not sure how much that matters to MOST people.

Also just a observation, but it seems even though the iPhone 5 and iPhone 5C have the same guts the [5C] seems to spank the iPhone 5 in smoothness. Maybe clock speeds are higher, since it no doubt has better yields? My dad's iPhone 5 seems slightly off since iOS 7 [and the subsequent 7.0.2 update], I may factory restore it to see if that fixes it.

The central issue of difference and it may impact smoothness, is the 5c has a different radio chip than the 5: the same one as the 5s. That's due to their wanting to have both of the "current" devices be China Mobile LTE compatible and the chip in the 5 and before wasn't. So even in other areas there might be performance differences...

 

Yeah if I'd gone with looks I'd have gotten a 5c, but I'm a tech freak so I "put-up" with the more formal styling of the 5s (which is a bit prettier than the 5 IMHO) to get the higher speed etc. The scanner is one of those "future tech" things, meh in and of itself at the moment (but wait 'til it replaces all those #*&$%%^ passwords!) but it did get me to password protect the thing..... and it's worked rapidly and reliably so far so I've left it on. Which no doubt makes the SFPD and NYPD all warm and fuzzy. :)


Edited by jfc1138 - 10/18/13 at 5:35pm
post #7 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by hentaiboy View Post

Of course they did. Plastic phone rumours were out for months. Plastic equates to cheap in most people's minds.

Normal consumers don't read tech sites.
post #8 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc1138 View Post


Yeah if I'd gone with looks I'd have gotten a 5c, but I'm a tech freak so I "put-up" with the more formal styling of the 5s (which is a bit prettier than the 5 IMHO) to get the higher speed etc. The scanner is one of those "future tech" things, meh in and of itself at the moment (but wait 'til it replaces all those #*&$%%^ passwords!) but it did get me to password protect the thing..... and it's worked rapidly and reliably so far so I've left it on. Which no doubt makes the SFPD and NYPD all warm and fuzzy. 1smile.gif

The scanner is a present tech. Lots of folks don't password protect and that's dangerous. This gives a simple way to protect your data and won't be annoying. I password protect and I hate typing in my code 20 times a day.
post #9 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by hentaiboy View Post
 

Of course they did. Plastic phone rumours were out for months. Plastic equates to cheap in most people's minds.

 

"Most people" don't follow rumor sites and therefor wouldn't even know of the supposed plastic iPhone before it was released. Furthermore, why would anyone think a plastic phone from Apple would be cheap? Both the iPhone 3G and 3Gs were plastic, but not cheap and the 5c is by far a much higher build quality than either of those.

Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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post #10 of 53

If the WSJ says it, you can be sure it's wrong.

 

That's  a pity, because a 75% increase in 5S production would be huge for Apple.  

 

Huge.

post #11 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


The scanner is a present tech. Lots of folks don't password protect and that's dangerous. This gives a simple way to protect your data and won't be annoying. I password protect and I hate typing in my code 20 times a day.

Oh I agree there's present uses for the scanner but I expect the more significant benefits have yet to be realized.

post #12 of 53

No one knows if Apple had this planned or not... "Make as many 5c's as we can until we can ramp up production of the 5s. Then stop producing so many 5c's." Makes perfect business sense.

Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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post #13 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post
 

No one knows if Apple had this planned or not... "Make as many 5c's as we can until we can ramp up production of the 5s. Then stop producing so many 5c's." Makes perfect business sense.

I could see assembly being a zero sum game at some point: then they need to choose....

post #14 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by pkabir View Post

That is interesting, as all I have seen in the wild so far is the iPhone 5C, though in all fairness that could be because of the color. I think it will be interesting to see how many are sold over Christmas, as carriers are no doubt going to drop the entry point to $99 with a regular contract or $0 with the newer upgrade sooner (T-Next, VZ-Edge, S-One up, TMUS-Jump) plans.

I am torn, I was thinking of getting a iPhone to swap out with my Android device occasionally and I know the iPhone 5S has the 64-bit chip, finger scanner, slightly better camera W/slow motion, but I am not sure how much that matters to MOST people.

Also just a observation, but it seems even though the iPhone 5 and iPhone 5C have the same guts the [5C] seems to spank the iPhone 5 in smoothness. Maybe clock speeds are higher, since it no doubt has better yields? My dad's iPhone 5 seems slightly off since iOS 7 [and the subsequent 7.0.2 update], I may factory restore it to see if that fixes it.

The 5s is noticeably lighter than the 5c....as a runner it's big deal! :)

post #15 of 53

AppleInsider: publishers of "channel checks" and articles criticizing "channel checks."

Somebody's not very consistent.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #16 of 53
Quote:
 Further, the analysts said industry watchers and consumers were unpleasantly surprised by the 5c's base price tag, which was anticipated to be substantially lower than Apple's previous offerings.

 

Fool on your for believing the hype! 

post #17 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post
 

No one knows if Apple had this planned or not... "Make as many 5c's as we can until we can ramp up production of the 5s. Then stop producing so many 5c's." Makes perfect business sense.

 

I don't think Tim Cook is the type of guy that likes to have too much excess stock sitting on the shelves.

 

... or maybe I read your statement wrong.

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post #18 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by hentaiboy View Post

Of course they did. Plastic phone rumours were out for months. Plastic equates to cheap in most people's minds.

I'll tell you what touch ID is worth it alone. The 64-bit architecture is very fast, some apps do crash, but overall I love this phone. It just feels solid. And the camera is actually quite good.
post #19 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by hentaiboy View Post

Of course they did. Plastic phone rumours were out for months. Plastic equates to cheap in most people's minds.

Most minds except Tim Cook - who sees plastic as an opportunity to increase margins rather than be more competitive on price.

If true this is obviously mixed news - neither of which I find surprising. The 5s is an amazing device and it's no surprise it's selling so well. I just wish they'd get mine delivered.

Reducing production of the 5c is a disappointing response. Knock $100 off the price and they would fly off the shelves.

= people hooked on iDevices = revenues to iTunes content and apps down the line.
post #20 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post
 

The 5s is noticeably lighter than the 5c....as a runner it's big deal! :)

The weight difference is that the 5c is 0.70 of an ounce or 20 grams heavier than the 5s. To a world class runner that might make a huge difference but for normal people not so much.

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"A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools." Douglas Adams

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post #21 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

If the WSJ says it, you can be sure it's wrong.

That's  a pity, because a 75% increase in 5S production would be huge for Apple.  

Huge.

Sadly this is now true. There was a time in life where the Wall Street Journal was well respected, now it isn't any better that a rumors site.
post #22 of 53

I wonder how many iPhones 5 are still on the market today, last week when I've got my 5s, many resellers was offering better deals on the remaining iPhones 5 than the new 5c.

post #23 of 53
So rumor has it that AAPL is cutting back on the phone that is cheaper w/ less profit margin and is instead dramatically increasing the production of the far more profitable 5S.

Isn't this actually pretty darn good news overall?
post #24 of 53
How many times did Tim Cook, the world class supply chain guy, warned all those bozos on Wall Street and media folks on not to read or analyze any rumors that you read about it because it takes a lot more then the pea brains of analyst and media to understand it. Wasn't it not long ago they misunderstood the lines in China ? There is no difference between the ability of our congress and the analysts on Wall Street - both are useless!
post #25 of 53
I'm not even sure Apple has made the latest iPhones available to all the countries it intends to, and beside rumors that Apple was cutting back production started before it had opened the 100 countries it intended to. So, these "cutbacks" don't make much sense to me — EXCEPT to garner site hits before Apple explodes all their prognostications in a few days.
"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #26 of 53

A sub 500$ 5C with 3,5" screen would sell like hot cakes.

 

A smaller screen is a big differentiator. It is cuter and more pocketable.

post #27 of 53
Was there ever a time when news was not silver spoon sped?
Inventing percentages without actual numbers can have many a meaning. It is just as bad as counting 5c's stuck on mall shelves as actual sales.
post #28 of 53

What channels does NPD Display search check? Screen orders?

As the 5c and 5s share the same screen how can they distinguish those two phones?

post #29 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

"The analysts note two factors are accountable for the poor showing: a miscalculated China launch and consumer expectation that the phone would be "cheap.""

They have data on China already? What consumer expectation? Basically they are guessing. Consumers had no expectation of a 5C.

 

They did, of course - everyone did. It's just Apple that flopped miserably when estimating demand for its cheapo yet expensive phone. Just more FACTS to prove how much of a failure the 5C is.

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post #30 of 53
Until we have actual unit build numbers we'll be bombed with speculation and outright guesses. I don't know why any of this is necessary. Apple will sell whatever number of iPhones it can and it will be reported on earnings call. There won't be any official breakdown of numbers for the latest iPhone models if Apple follows its usual procedure. Why don't these people spend more time trying to find out how many Kindle Fire HDXs are sold because Jeff Bezos never reveals those numbers and Amazon investors don't give a damn about them.
post #31 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post
 

No one knows if Apple had this planned or not... "Make as many 5c's as we can until we can ramp up production of the 5s. Then stop producing so many 5c's." Makes perfect business sense.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

 

I don't think Tim Cook is the type of guy that likes to have too much excess stock sitting on the shelves.

 

... or maybe I read your statement wrong.


There's a scenario where you can both be mostly right.  Leaving aside whether or not the 5c was the optimal solution for further penetration of developing markets, Apple knew with 95%+ probability they wouldn't be able to meet initial demand for the 5s in their existing largest markets (and the speed of the rollout schedule to many counties on exacerbates the backlog).

 

E.g., a big factor constraining supply may be that ramping up Touch ID production takes time - and therefore, also knowing that people were hungry for new iPhones, they might have hoped that as delivery dates for the 5s stretched out, more than have to date would opt for the old wine in a new bottle 5c, because they would still have, if not the gold 5s they were lusting for, "a new iPhone" to buy - if only new in being identifiably a "this year's model" by the new skin.

They also would have considered the possibility that the wait for a 5s  could cause some people to start thinking about the HTC One or Lumia 1020, i.e., a scenario where no "new" Apple phones were readily available, where they could either lose existing customers or leave new ones to be had with nothing to buy without a long wait.

Finally, unlike most companies, they don't have to go to the credit markets to temporarily be ready for any plausible level of demand with an inventory they have a full year to fine tune as it finds its level. 

So, however it played out, never a real risk nor a bad strategy also knowing they'd sell at least as well relatively as the 4s did a year ago as the next tier down to the 5. So no worries if they overshot the runway a bit, as still a guaranteed big seller compared to most other phones on the world market i.e., not the remotests chance of ending with an inventory disaster (a la, say, HP's foray into tablets).
 

And while not the whole story, at least to some degree, that makes perfect business sense to me....

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post #32 of 53
Just received email from apple. My order for 2 gold phones was shipped! 1smile.gif
post #33 of 53
If the 5S is selling better, then it makes sense to boost it's sales.
post #34 of 53

http://store.apple.com/uk/buy-iphone/iphone4s

Can Apple make a £350 phone out of quality materials?

YES!

In some ways I prefer the glass and steel design more.  It exudes quality and solidity.  I have the '5' design.  It's light and classy, sure.

The 5C was a chance to hit the £350 mark here in the UK and give students and children the next 'must have' Christmas present.

Nearly £500 for 'last year' phone?  No.  No.  And no again.

I guess when they bring out iPhone + we 'may'...

have...

- 5c at £350.
- 6 + £540.

Two models?

Maybe the 4S may be driven down to even cheaper?  Say, £250-295?

The 4S is still a very quality phone.

 

Lemon Bon Bon.

You know, for a company that specializes in the video-graphics market, you'd think that they would offer top-of-the-line GPUs...

 

WITH THE NEW MAC PRO THEY FINALLY DID!  (But you bend over for it.)

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You know, for a company that specializes in the video-graphics market, you'd think that they would offer top-of-the-line GPUs...

 

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post #35 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post


Normal consumers don't read tech sites.

 

But those sites were quoted enough in mainstream media sources such that many average consumers knew Apple was releasing a "plastic" iPhone and an iPhone with a fingerprint scanner before the official rollout.

 

I'm not surprised the 5c wasn't a $350 phone. I was somewhat surprised it wasn't a $450-$500 phone to start with, displacing both the 5 and the 4s in developed markets. Discounters here in the US have marked it down to $49 on contract (essentially $500). 

post #36 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Normal consumers don't read tech sites.

 

Sure they do.  After all, the most recent survey on brand value rated Cisco #13.  More valuable than Disney or Gillette.  And the only way to even know who Cisco is, is to read tech sites.  /s.

http://appleinsider.com/articles/13/09/30/apple-ends-coca-colas-13-year-reign-as-worlds-most-valuable-brand

post #37 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by Realistic View Post
 

The weight difference is that the 5c is 0.70 of an ounce or 20 grams heavier than the 5s. To a world class runner that might make a huge difference but for normal people not so much.

 

You're being generous. I doubt even a world class runner would be concerned about the weight of four teaspoons of water, except during a competitive event.

 

But what do I know? I'm not even a world class walker.

post #38 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post

"Most people" don't follow rumor sites and therefor wouldn't even know of the supposed plastic iPhone before it was released. Furthermore, why would anyone think a plastic phone from Apple would be cheap? Both the iPhone 3G and 3Gs were plastic, but not cheap and the 5c is by far a much higher build quality than either of those.
The 3G and 3Gs were plastic but they were also around at a time when every phone was plastic so there was no reason to think a plastic phone was cheap.

At the time the 3G may not have been cheap, but oddly enough I found the recipt for mine the other day and it was £350 for pay as you go. A 5c looks like its going to cost about £500 for pay as go, now there has been inflation since it came out but not 42%!
post #39 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by KPOM View Post
 

 

But those sites were quoted enough in mainstream media sources such that many average consumers knew Apple was releasing a "plastic" iPhone and an iPhone with a fingerprint scanner before the official rollout.

 

I'm sure that most people have read those tech articles in the local newspaper that are cringe worthy. Written by the same person, I'm sure, that wrote the baby notices last week.

 

Newsweek, Time, USA Today and bunches of other weekly magazines splash Apple stories onto their pages whenever they think it is important (and it usually is not).

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post #40 of 53
"Citing channel checks, NPD Display Search "can confirm" a slowdown in iPhone 5c production, which supposedly comes along with a hefty increase in 5s orders."

Once again this is presented as a fact rather than a wild guess by an analyst. This is presented decontextualized as it doesn't show that Cook clearly explained that the channel is incredibly complex and merely making a few checks will not give an accurate picture.

Your repetition of an analysts' guess (analyst=carnival fortune teller, just not as accurate or as entertaining) without such context makes you a part of spreading false rumors about Apple with a clear intent to depress the stock price. Was that your conscious intent? Probably not. But were I Apple I'd have both you and NPD in court for spreading lies in order to depress the stock price.

I'm not saying you shouldn't report the wild guesses of someone--assuming that you consider such to be "journalism"%u2014only that you contextualize it.

Say, if that's the kind of journalism you do, there are a bunch of people wandering Hollywood Blvd. wearing tin foil hats you can quote, too.
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