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Apple's iPad, iPhone face flagging growth as conventional markets reach saturation

post #1 of 147
Thread Starter 
Apple faces an uphill battle when it comes to growing sales for its flagship mobile devices as fewer and fewer consumers in traditionally strong markets like the U.S. and Western Europe are left without smartphones or tablets, according to two reports released on Wednesday.

Smartphone OS share


Sales of Apple's iPhone grew just 13 percent year-over-year while the iPad fared only slightly better at 13.5 percent despite record total shipments of both products. Those numbers trail growth in the overall market by 21 percent and 37.1 percent, respectively.

In comparison, sales of Android-based smartphones --?which are also said to be feeling the pinch of market saturation -- grew at a blistering 62 percent rate, besting the market by some 21 percent. Android's continued emergence may be attributed to the proliferation of low-cost Android handset vendors whose devices have been shown to be especially popular among less-affluent consumers in emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America.

Tablets, meanwhile, have followed a similar path.



"It's becoming increasingly clear that markets such as the U.S. are reaching high levels of consumer saturation and while emerging markets continue to show strong growth this has not been enough to sustain the dramatic worldwide growth rates of years past," said Tom Mainelli, tablet research director for market research firm IDC.

Apple remains the dominant tablet vendor with a slice of the market nearly twice as large as its nearest competitor, but the Cupertino, Calif.-based company has seen its growth in the sector outstripped by less costly alternatives.

Chinese manufacturer Lenovo, for instance, grew by 325 percent in the quarter. IDC attributes this growth almost entirely to Lenovo's low-end lineup, saying that the company's "access to the Chinese whitebox manufacturing infrastructure has helped it drive more low-priced tablet products into the market."
post #2 of 147

"Our belief was that if we kept putting great products in front of customers, they would continue to open their wallets."

There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life.

Frank Zappa

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There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life.

Frank Zappa

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post #3 of 147
""It's becoming increasingly clear that markets such as the U.S. are reaching high levels of consumer saturation and while emerging markets continue to show strong growth this has not been enough to sustain the dramatic worldwide growth rates of years past," said Tom Mainelli, tablet research director for market research firm IDC."


Ok. And?

We still need to upgrade our devices.

Is this another thinly-veiled demand for The Next Big Thing from Apple? I'm sure whatever it is, is on its way. Sheesh.
post #4 of 147
Um...China.
post #5 of 147

This is the new reality.

 

7% unit growth for iPhone in Christmas quarter is a slap in the face to reality.

Apple needs to sell a NEW mid range phone ASAP ($350-$400)

post #6 of 147

If stock is going higher, headlines are wonderful and if stock moves lower, headlines match that!

post #7 of 147
Damn this makes perfect sense...

UNLESS you realize people upgrade their phones every couple of years, and people are still being born in all these countries...
post #8 of 147
Apples sold 77 million iOS devices last quarter, the highest ever and we're supposed to believe the market is saturated?
post #9 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

""It's becoming increasingly clear that markets such as the U.S. are reaching high levels of consumer saturation and while emerging markets continue to show strong growth this has not been enough to sustain the dramatic worldwide growth rates of years past," said Tom Mainelli, tablet research director for market research firm IDC."


Ok. And?

We still need to upgrade our devices.

Is this another thinly-veiled demand for The Next Big Thing from Apple? I'm sure whatever it is, is on its way. Sheesh.

 

This article is talking about growth.

 

So... everybody has a phone. Then they upgrade.

 

Are they using both phones? Did the market grow? If you answered "No" to both of these questions then, answer this, "Did Apple grow?".

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post #10 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post
 

This is the new reality.

 

7% unit growth for iPhone in Christmas quarter is a slap in the face to reality.

Apple needs to sell a NEW mid range phone ASAP ($350-$400)

A mid range phone from Apple would be better priced in the $449 to $499 range. The question is would they then cannibalize more sales from the 5s or steal sales from Android. 

post #11 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Um...China.

^this^

post #12 of 147
meh... how much do those people buying the low end devices spend 1) on those devices and 2)on aftermarket expenditures such as apps, music and accessories. Yea, I'm guessing that all those numbers mean nothing when it comes to actually making money and last I checked Apple is a business... aka, they don't just do this 'cause it's fun. They didn't get to be the most valuable tech company in the world by chasing the bottom (and the sales figures for the IP5S vs C are another example of that).
post #13 of 147
It looks like the iPhone 5S has become THE aspirational phone to have. This alone accounts for the difference in sales between the 5s and 5c which seem to have taken Apple by surprise (I bet the 5c still sits in the top five sellers world wide) if this is right then there are potentially millions who as their income improves will, reach out to buy, by hook or crook, THE phone to be seen with..... As long as Apple can continue every few years to deliver the phone to be seen with, there will always be a market. For this to work the market needs to be flooded with cheep crap that the best from Apple can be compared to, and thankfully Samsung continue to deliver.
post #14 of 147
I have at least three upgrades and or new additions in the immediate future in my family. Two iPhone 4 upgrades - likely one to 5s and one to 5c with a possible net new iPad mini in the mix.
post #15 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by msalganik View Post

meh... how much do those people buying the low end devices spend 1) on those devices and 2)on aftermarket expenditures such as apps, music and accessories. Yea, I'm guessing that all those numbers mean nothing when it comes to actually making money and last I checked Apple is a business... aka, they don't just do this 'cause it's fun. They didn't get to be the most valuable tech company in the world by chasing the bottom (and the sales figures for the IP5S vs C are another example of that).

 

How do you figure the sales numbers for the 5c prove anything? They charged $549 which is only $100 less than the 5s for a phone that is plastic, lacks the latest technology like 64-bit, touchID and all the other improvements on the 5s. Of course it was not going to sell well. If they want to compete in the mid range then offer it at a price those people can afford or don't bother and go back to selling last years model for $100 cheaper. I think Apple is scared to death of losing sales for their premium model which is why they refuse to either lower the price to a more reasonable $449-$499 range at least. Another differentiator could have been  giving it an A7 but one that is clocked slower and offering the 5c as 16/32GB options while the 5s was 32/64/128GB. That along with TouchID, a better camera, and the metal finish would have been enough to differentiate them while still making the 5c far more appealing.  

post #16 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post

I have at least three upgrades and or new additions in the immediate future in my family. Two iPhone 4 upgrades - likely one to 5s and one to 5c with a possible net new iPad mini in the mix.

 

Please email Tim Cook -- that should really put his mind at ease!

post #17 of 147
Wall Street plays this twisted game where everything has to grow all the time. And that's the problem with publicly traded companies. They are pimped to always grow and grow.
Apple needs to become a private company.
post #18 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post

""It's becoming increasingly clear that markets such as the U.S. are reaching high levels of consumer saturation and while emerging markets continue to show strong growth this has not been enough to sustain the dramatic worldwide growth rates of years past," said Tom Mainelli, tablet research director for market research firm IDC."


Ok. And?

We still need to upgrade our devices.

Is this another thinly-veiled demand for The Next Big Thing from Apple? I'm sure whatever it is, is on its way. Sheesh.

Mmm... I wonder what the long-term job prospects are for a "tablet research director".
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
- Michael Lille -
Reply
post #19 of 147

Apple is doomed!

post #20 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by marubeni View Post
 

 

Please email Tim Cook -- that should really put his mind at ease!

 

That is in addition to the 5c and 5s and MacBook Pro I bought late last year - the point is that any data collected on how many devices people already have or how many have recently been sold does not necessarily predict how many will be purchased in the future. Any trends that can be observed are based on what has happened and or speculation about what might happen and while the past is fixed the future is not. 

post #21 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by lilgto64 View Post
 

 

That is in addition to the 5c and 5s and MacBook Pro I bought late last year - the point is that any data collected on how many devices people already have or how many have recently been sold does not necessarily predict how many will be purchased in the future. Any trends that can be observed are based on what has happened and or speculation about what might happen and while the past is fixed the future is not. 

 

That is why Tim and his minions make the big bucks -- planning their production is quite a tricky business. Although some here claim, with some justification, that the job he is doing is only maybe worth $100MM, tops, not $400MM.

post #22 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

Wall Street plays this twisted game where everything has to grow all the time. And that's the problem with publicly traded companies. They are pimped to always grow and grow.
Apple needs to become a private company.

 

This is NOT true.  Wall Street expects companies with 12-15 PE to grow. 

 

Last year Apple SHRANK!  There profits were down 10%.

 

Wall street does expect 10-15% growth with a PE of 13-15

 

With ZERO growth then the PE will be about 11-12 which is $440-$480.

 

Add in dividends and Apple is fairly priced at about $500-$520 with ZERO growth

 

The problem is Apple could go BELOW zero growth as they did in 2013.  Thus the stock could rightfully be at $400-$450

post #23 of 147
Quote:
Chinese manufacturer Lenovo, for instance, grew by 325 percent in the quarter

 This is a perfect example of how Statistics lie, They trying to show that Lenovo is growing faster than anyone so they are better, they make this statement in a article which talks about a saturated market, which is probably a true statement since everyone who plans to buy have bough at the particular price point. But Lenovo could have sold 1 last year and 325 this year and had a growth of 325%, so which number are you more in pressed with, selling 325 and 325% growth or 26M and 10% growth, which company do you want to work for.

 

before anyone goes nuts, I know Lenovo sold more than 325 units, but when you numbers are small in a big world small increases can be shown as large % if you do not know the numbers behind the %, remember statistician use the % sign to hide the real numbers and they do not want you looking at the guy behind the curtain.

post #24 of 147

I just bought 2 new IPad air's 1 yesterday for my daughter who is in college and today one for me. I think there are still lots of people who don't have one will still purchase one.

post #25 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64 View Post

 This is a perfect example of how Statistics lie, They trying to show that Lenovo is growing faster than anyone so they are better, they make this statement in a article which talks about a saturated market, which is probably a true statement since everyone who plans to buy have bough at the particular price point. But Lenovo could have sold 1 last year and 325 this year and had a growth of 325%, so which number are you more in pressed with, selling 325 and 325% growth or 26M and 10% growth, which company do you want to work for.

before anyone goes nuts, I know Lenovo sold more than 325 units, but when you numbers are small in a big world small increases can be shown as large % if you do not know the numbers behind the %, remember statistician use the % sign to hide the real numbers and they do not want you looking at the guy behind the curtain.
Technically if you sell 325 after selling 1, it's 32,400% growth. But I agree with the words.
post #26 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

Wall street does expect 10-15% growth with a PE of 13-15

With ZERO growth then the PE will be about 11-12 which is $440-$480.

Add in dividends and Apple is fairly priced at about $500-$520 with ZERO growth

The problem is Apple could go BELOW zero growth as they did in 2013.  Thus the stock could rightfully be at $400-$450

Exactly. It blows my mind people on this site have such a hard time understanding this. Apple isn't Doomed, but AAPL isn't quite as clear.
post #27 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

Um...China.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc1138 View Post
 

^this^

 

 

Unfortunately, Apple's flat guidance for next quarter despite the new China deal have some people questioning how much growth Apple will actually see.

post #28 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

Wall Street plays this twisted game where everything has to grow all the time. And that's the problem with publicly traded companies. They are pimped to always grow and grow.
Apple needs to become a private company.

 

Inflation is the reason why everything has to grow all the time.

post #29 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eternal Emperor View Post
 

Apple is doomed!

 

Apple won't be doomed or go out of business for a long time.

 

But if Cook keeps messing up this stock will never see $700 or $600 or even $500 again.

 

Keep in mind that a ZERO growth company gets between a 9 and 10 PE ratio

With earnings flat that would mean $360-$400 share price.

 

If earnings go down 10% we are talking 8 PE or lower and sub $300 share price.

 

There are only two ways out of this with the highend smartphone/tablet market saturated:

 

1. Increase marketshare/ revenue by selling larger phones and cheaper phones.

2. Bring out a new product line

 

If you don't think Apple can do either it would be time to sell your shares. 

I will sell my shares very soon.  The company is hopeless with Cook at the helm. 

post #30 of 147
If someone is concerned about Apple's growth or Tim Cook as CEO then sell your stock and go buy Google or Amazon rather than coming here and throwing a temper tantrum because you've taken a bath on your Apple investment.
post #31 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by mistercow View Post
 

 

Inflation is the reason why everything has to grow all the time.

 

also opportunity cost.

Opportunities that other companies can return a higher ROI

post #32 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

If someone is concerned about Apple's growth or Tim Cook as CEO then sell your stock and go buy Google or Amazon rather than coming here and throwing a temper tantrum because you've taken a bath on your Apple investment.

 

I'm warning people because every one here thinks Wall Street is screwing Apple and sooner or later Apple will go back to $600.  BS.  The company is in great danger of being in the $400 price range with zero growth.

post #33 of 147
WOW, are these people just recycling last year's articles. This was the same junk I read last year around this time. These people need to invest in some new "crystal balls".
post #34 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by mistercow View Post

Unfortunately, Apple's flat guidance for next quarter despite the new China deal have some people questioning how much growth Apple will actually see.
Except Apple made it clear on the conference call that the China Mobile roll out would take time.
post #35 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by mistercow View Post
 

 

Unfortunately, Apple's flat guidance for next quarter despite the new China deal have some people questioning how much growth Apple will actually see.

That will be timed to China Mobile's new network at least in part, a network still being rolled out. Given the poisonous atmosphere I'd prefer a bit of caution as the new country unfolds rather than get more of the (unwarranted, IMHO) "flop" screeching as has surrounded the 5c. 

post #36 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Exactly. It blows my mind people on this site have such a hard time understanding this. Apple isn't Doomed, but AAPL isn't quite as clear.
Then get out of AAPL and put you money somewhere else. I'm invested in AAPL but in a lot of other equities too. And for anyone that has most or all of their eggs in the AAPL basket, well that's just stupid.
post #37 of 147
Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

But if Cook keeps messing up this stock will never see $700 or $600 or even $500 again.

 

The fourth best quarter of any company in human history and selling more devices than ever before is “messing up” now?

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #38 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

The fourth best quarter of any company in human history and selling more devices than ever before is “messing up” now?
Someone just lost a boatload on Tuesday and is throwing a temper tantrum. Rather than temper tantrums they should just cut their losses and move on to something else.
post #39 of 147
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post
Someone just lost a boatload on Tuesday and is throwing a temper tantrum. Rather than temper tantrums they should just cut their losses and move on to something else.

 

Or wait the two weeks until the stock goes back above where it was. :lol:

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #40 of 147
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Except Apple made it clear on the conference call that the China Mobile roll out would take time.

 

With the most ever activations in a Chinese iPhone introduction you'd think there would be a bit more of a bump to the 2nd fiscal qtr... it doesn't matter if they are in only 16 of the 300 cities.

 

... and aren't those initial 16 cities the largest by far? 

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