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Second analyst suspects iPod nano delays

post #1 of 13
Thread Starter 
Shares of Apple Computer continued to trade near 6-month lows on Friday after a second Wall Street analyst said the company's redesigned iPod nano digital music player may face delays of up to two months.

In a note to clients, Baird equity research analyst Tristan Gerra noted that spot pricing for 8Gb NAND flash fell 31 percent since last week, a drop he associates purely to delays in the launch of Apple's next-generation iPod nano player.

"Our checks indicate this pricing decline was induced by a 2-month pushout in iPod nano-related orders, from June to August," Gerra said. "This suggests Apple's upcoming 6GB - 8GB nano will be on the shelves in November rather than September."

The analyst also said it's his belief that second quarter sales for a leading NAND flash supplier came in below target, suggesting an inventory dump and continued pricing pressures will take place over the next month.

Gerra's comments come on the heels of a similar report, released late last week by Shaw Wu, an analyst with American Technology Research. In his report, Wu also said the new nano could be facing a multi-month setback.

The analyst attributed the delay to Apple's change of SoC (system-on-a-chip) suppliers, in which it elected to use chips from Samsung rather than long-time iPod component supplier PortalPlayer.

However, Wu believes the new nano will arrive in 4GB and 8GB models, rather than 6GB and 8GB configurations.

"We believe the price points will remain the same at $199 and $249, but that storage capacities will be doubled to 4GB and 8GB, up from 2GB and 4GB," he told his clients.

For its part, AppleInsider has been unable to positively confirm that the new nano will miss its target introduction of September, despite reported challenges faced by Samsung in adapting its SoC to meet Apple's iPod nano needs.
post #2 of 13
... but if Wu is wrong, you'll never hear that admission, will you?

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

Reply
post #3 of 13
These analysts seem to think Apple wont bring out its Christmas iPod's until December.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #4 of 13
I understand worries about the delays in the iPod but I would be very surprised if we don't see not only a Mac Pro, but also some totally new product that no one was thinking about. Also the video iPod might get an upgrade. We'll have to wait and see but I don't think this is reason to sell a stock, rumors about a product that wasn't announced to be released, being delayed. I don't see how it can be bad if a product that wasn't announced for a release date or anything like that, is rumored to be delayed. Good time to buy stock now, before the next products are released. That's just my worthless opinion.
post #5 of 13
I agree. Great time to pickup AAPL. I just used all my free cash to pick it up. Hopefully I will be able to flip it in 6 months for a nice profit (I can easily see AAPL at 80 by then).
Never underestimate the stupidity of the general public.
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Never underestimate the stupidity of the general public.
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post #6 of 13
Quote:
Originally posted by wealjays
I agree. Great time to pickup AAPL. I just used all my free cash to pick it up. Hopefully I will be able to flip it in 6 months for a nice profit (I can easily see AAPL at 80 by then).

Personally I would hold it for more than 6 months, if you sell it say November 2007 you might get treble what you just paid for it now. Honestly it seems a no brainer, if you have extra money, buy apple stock. You have been advised.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #7 of 13
Who said that the nano's target release was September anyway?
post #8 of 13
The article doesn't seem to mention the smallest capacity nano (1 GB), as if it doesn't exist. I think it would be silly to imply or assume that model is going away, with competitors continually going down in price. I wonder if this means that Shaw Wu doesn't even know what Apple's current line is. Digital audio players are a pretty price sensitive market, in my opinion it would be pretty foolish to abandon the $149 model.

Apple generally seems to put the major updates on an annual cycle, apple-history says nano was introduced in September 2005, so an update around then would be generally expected. IMO, the iPod should be updated for the holiday buying season, so early November would still hit it, though earlier would be better.
post #9 of 13
Quote:
Originally posted by Ireland
Personally I would hold it for more than 6 months, if you sell it say November 2007 you might get treble what you just paid for it now. Honestly it seems a no brainer, if you have extra money, buy apple stock. You have been advised.

"An analyst is born every minute"
I think it was W.C. Fields or P.T. Barnum who said that
post #10 of 13
I think that the lack of nano updates is puzzling. There is a broad consensus that flash prices have fallen significantly since the nano was introduced in October. It is likely that Apple could update the nano to, say, 2, 4, and 8 GB while maintaining Apple-level margins. Since they haven't, I think that either i) updates are imminent, or ii) existing nanos still sell well and have really high margins so that Apple has calculated that their profits are maximized by not updating.
post #11 of 13
Maybe these delays are the result of "wait and see" strategy Apple is deploying against the upcoming Microsoft "iPod Killer".
post #12 of 13
These analysts are just jealous they didn't purchase at a lower price. So now they need to influence the market a bit so they can buy in

 

 

Quote:
The reason why they are analysts is because they failed at running businesses.

 

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Quote:
The reason why they are analysts is because they failed at running businesses.

 

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post #13 of 13
Quote:
Originally posted by emig647
These analysts are just jealous they didn't purchase at a lower price. So now they need to influence the market a bit so they can buy in

for sure
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