I think we should keep all of this discussion in one thread, somehow a lot of this topic has been discussed in the What Obama Really Believes
thread. Both threads were started on the same date, this one several hours later.
Or maybe we'll just keep posting in both threads, I have no control over who posts where, with respect to USofA energy policy. Heck, maybe we need a new thread devoted to USofA energy policy?
Anyway, in the other thread, I added up the USofA's proven oil reserves, ~21.5 BBL and the current USGS estimate of onshore "recoverable" oil reserves of 48.5 BBL, for a total of 70 BBL.
I now have been through another Department of the Interior website, the Mineral Management Service (or MMS), and have found their most recent assessments for offshore "recoverable" oil reserves, see Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Assessment 2006
or just see Assessment of Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Oil and Gas Resources of the Nations Outer Continental Shelf, 2006
Estimates of undiscovered technically recoverable resources (UTRR) for the entire OCS range from 66.6 BBO at the F95 fractile to 115.1 BBO at the F5 fractile with a mean of 85.9 BBO (figure 2 and table 1). Similarly, gas estimates range from 326.4 to 565.9 Tcf with a mean of 419.9 Tcf. On a barrel of oil-equivalence (BOE) basis 54 percent of the potential is located within the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The Alaska OCS ranks second with 31 percent.
Note that most of the GOM UTRR are in the central and western GOM where offshore drilling is not
So now adding ~86 BBO to the previous total of 70 BBO gives a total of 156 BBO, which at the current production rate of ~ 5 MBPD (1.825 BBPY) will last ~85 years.
Or if we ramp up domestic oil production by 1 MBPDPY (0.365 BBPYPY) then we will reach 100% of our oil energy needs, assuming our consumption remains at ~21 MBPD (7.665 BBPY), in 16 years. This will remove _~76 BBO from the 156 BBO leaving 80 BBO. The remaining 80 BBO will be used up in ~10 additional years if production remains at 21 MBPD, or ~20 years using a uniform ramp down to zero.
So to reach oil energy independence would take 16 years plus 10 additional years for a total of 26 years to total depletion, or 36 years to total depletion using a uniform ramp down to zero.
Of course if all the retiring baby boomers get RV's with an SUV in tow, than this 156 BBO will be gone in just, oh I don't know, 10 years?