Nearly half of prospective smartphone buyers to choose iPhone

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Even amid turbulent times, smartphone adoption continues to rise, with a new study revealing that nearly half of those consumers who plan to make a new smartphone purchase in the next three months will buy an iPhone.



A survey of over 4,000 respondents conducted by ChangeWave in the days immediately following the announcement of the iPhone 3GS found that more than 14% plan to purchase an integrated mobile device in the next 90 days -- the highest percentage ever recorded by the firm.



Of those who said they plan to make a purchase, a resounding 44% indicated that they plan to buy an iPhone, compared to 23% who said they'll buy a BlackBerry and 8% who indicated they'll choose a device made by Palm.



That's a 14 point jump for Apple since ChangeWave's last survey in March, which appears to have come directly at the expense of Research in Motion, whose BlackBerry demand fell by the same number of points. Meanwhile, purchase intentions for a device made by Palm doubled following the introduction of the Pre.



For Apple and its exclusive U.S. iPhone service provider AT&T, the news gets even better. Of those consumers who say they'll be buying an iPhone, more than 66% also said they'll be new to the platform, having never owned one of Apple's handset.



The survey also suggests that the surge in demand for iPhones isn't being driven by Apple's decision to continue marketing the previous-generation 8G iPhone 3G for just $99. Instead, over 86% of respondents planning to buy an iPhone said they'll choose one of the new 3GS models.







In terms of current market share, Research In Motion (41%) remains the market share leader among consumers – unchanged since ChangeWave's previous survey in March – with Apple (25%; up 1 point) now firmly in second place. Palm (7%) remains far behind in third place, but their market slide finally appears to be slowing, according to the market research firm, down just two points in the past six months compared to 5-points in the six months before that.







"Clearly, the Palm Pre is breathing new life into the company. Future demand appears strong, although the Palm brand name no longer commands the same presence it did back in its pioneer days," the firm said. "The far bigger story, however, is that of the iPhone 3GS. The new model release has resulted in a huge spike in demand for Apple going forward. Moreover, consumer plans for smart phone buying in the next 90 days are more than a third higher than they were a year ago."



Still, one-in-four consumers say the most important reason they’re not considering buying an Apple iPhone is because they don’t like the requirement that they'll have to use AT&T. Similarly, 16% say they won’t buy a Palm Pre because they’d have to use Sprint.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 73
    docno42docno42 Posts: 3,662member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    The survey also suggests that the surge in demand for iPhones isn't being driven by Apple's decision to continue marketing the previous-generation 8G iPhone 3G for just $99. Instead, over 86% of respondents planning to buy an iPhone said they'll choose one of the new 3GS models.



    So much for "the iPhone is too expensive and that's why people aren't buying it". It's more an issue of acceptance of smarphones in general.



    The good news, for Apple (and AT&T!), is that when they do choose they overwhelmingly choose the iPhone.
  • Reply 2 of 73
    c4rlobc4rlob Posts: 277member
    I wonder how many of the 66%, that will be new to the iPhone platform, have owned any Apple product (laptop/desktop/iPod) before?
  • Reply 3 of 73
    mbaynhammbaynham Posts: 534member
    got my 3gs this morning. love it!
  • Reply 4 of 73
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    I can vouch for dat! 4 days and the love grows daily.
  • Reply 5 of 73
    trumptmantrumptman Posts: 16,464member
    I love Apple as much as the next guy the reasoning in this survey is crap. It basically measures if people are interested in purchasing right after the release and no on way ties that interest to sell through.



    Here is the graph since the automated slave cannot add them.







    Hey, what a surprise, a bunch of people were interested June a year ago as well and then interested dropped off as Apple did nothing all year.



    If anything this article shows a troubling trend for Apple. Last year at the peak of interest, 56% said they were interested in the then new iPhone 3G. This year at the peak of interest, that same number is only 44%. Both times of year all the Apple buzz manages to crater RIM interest but it is stuck at the same 23% number. The lowering of Apple peak interest correlates very strongly to the increase in Palm interest.



    I'd be worried.
  • Reply 6 of 73
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:

    Still, one-in-four consumers say the most important reason they?re not considering buying an Apple iPhone is because they don?t like the requirement that they'll have to use AT&T.



    You know, you reach a point where you give in (AT&T) because the device at this point is unparalleled. The OS was always fantastic but paired with the new battery/camera/video tipped it over the edge for me.
  • Reply 7 of 73
    freenyfreeny Posts: 128member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by trumptman View Post


    I love Apple as much as the next guy the reasoning in this survey is crap. It basically measures if people are interested in purchasing right after the release and no on way ties that interest to sell through.



    Here is the graph since the automated slave cannot add them.







    Hey, what a surprise, a bunch of people were interested June a year ago as well and then interested dropped off as Apple did nothing all year.



    If anything this article shows a troubling trend for Apple. Last year at the peak of interest, 56% said they were interested in the then new iPhone 3G. This year at the peak of interest, that same number is only 44%. Both times of year all the Apple buzz manages to crater RIM interest but it is stuck at the same 23% number. The lowering of Apple peak interest correlates very strongly to the increase in Palm interest.



    I'd be worried.



    Very true, but the Pre upswing is also the result of a phone release...
  • Reply 8 of 73
    trumptmantrumptman Posts: 16,464member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by freeny View Post


    Very true, but the Pre upswing is also the result of a phone release...



    Want to take bets as to whether Palm is only going to release one phone on one carrier this year?
  • Reply 9 of 73
    bigmc6000bigmc6000 Posts: 767member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by freeny View Post


    Very true, but the Pre upswing is also the result of a phone release...



    While the 3Gs is (as viewed by many) simply a "point" update before something more interesting next year. Considering all they did was beef the specs and didn't change a single physical thing about the phone (the camera is much, much better but still just a spec IMO) and it jumps back to 44% I think says quite a bit. Also, look at it this way - look at the relatively low %'s for the 2G and then a massive jump up to the 3G - that would indicate to me that a lot of people didn't buy the 2G and as such aren't even allowed to buy a new smart phone yet without paying the big bucks (don't feed me AT&T's junk, you have to average over $100 a person to get the 12 month upgrade plan). So, the fact that it's so high despite all the huge number of people that (seemingly) jumped at the 3G says a lot (compared to RIM where they are, seemingly, releasing a new version of something every other month).
  • Reply 10 of 73
    oc4theooc4theo Posts: 294member
    Apple has seen its share of this market go from zero to where it is now. It will continue to go up. Unlike the Mac vs Windows saga, this fight is tilted in favor of Apple.



    iPhone is not a phone. It is a computer platform disguised as a phone. It is catching up and will soon explode like a wild fire. And the truth is this; the best is yet to come!
  • Reply 11 of 73
    I wish they would include global stats as this is more a true measure of iPhone uptake. The US is just one market. I wonder how the iPhone will do in incumbent markets like Asia, or Europe where Samsung, and Nokia reign. Either way, consumers should come out on the better end of the stick. I am waiting for the iPhone to be released so I can use it alone my N97.
  • Reply 12 of 73
    brucepbrucep Posts: 2,823member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by trumptman View Post


    I love Apple as much as the next guy the reasoning in this survey is crap. It basically measures if people are interested in purchasing right after the release and no on way ties that interest to sell through.



    Here is the graph since the automated slave cannot add them.







    Hey, what a surprise, a bunch of people were interested June a year ago as well and then interested dropped off as Apple did nothing all year.



    If anything this article shows a troubling trend for Apple. Last year at the peak of interest, 56% said they were interested in the then new iPhone 3G. This year at the peak of interest, that same number is only 44%. Both times of year all the Apple buzz manages to crater RIM interest but it is stuck at the same 23% number. The lowering of Apple peak interest correlates very strongly to the increase in Palm interest.



    I'd be worried.



    Really??



    APPLE just sold over one million iphones in 3 days and maybe 5 million in 90 or even more. And considering there with AT&T i find the sales amazing.



    The $99 Model will be a world wide hit.



    I am reminded of the MAD magazine logo "what me worry "



    All the numbers mean nothing compared to monster sales and high profit.



    9
  • Reply 13 of 73
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,276member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    I can vouch for dat! 4 days and the love grows daily.



    I was away for a few days, and must have missed this mega-event altogether! You mean....... you really mean..... you bought an iPhone, you like the iPhone, and you're even OK with ATT?!



    So, what's the story in terms of how you reconcile this with your previous (thousands of) posts?



    (This is an honest question - not trying to be sarcastic or anything! Swear. )
  • Reply 14 of 73
    lantznlantzn Posts: 240member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OC4Theo View Post


    Apple has seen its share of this market go from zero to where it is now. It will continue to go up. Unlike the Mac vs Windows saga, this fight is tilted in favor of Apple.



    iPhone is not a phone. It is a computer platform disguised as a phone. It is catching up and will soon explode like a wild fire. And the truth is this; the best is yet to come!



    EXACTLY and lets not forget the $99 3G version that will draw 1000s into the fold, only to upgrade to a newer iPhone when the time comes.
  • Reply 15 of 73
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    I can vouch for dat! 4 days and the love grows daily.



    I guess I can take you off my ignore list now
  • Reply 16 of 73
    doroteadorotea Posts: 323member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Still, one-in-four consumers say the most important reason they’re not considering buying an Apple iPhone is because they don’t like the requirement that they'll have to use AT&T. Similarly, 16% say they won’t buy a Palm Pre because they’d have to use Sprint.



    I'd buy the iPhone 3GS if I could get a cheaper PHONE contract. The data portion of the contract is fine. I just don't use the phone much. (ATT is ok...not great but ok)
  • Reply 17 of 73
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by trumptman View Post


    I love Apple as much as the next guy the reasoning in this survey is crap. It basically measures if people are interested in purchasing right after the release and no on way ties that interest to sell through.



    The point of the article is looking at the initial demand. The initial demand at launch is higher than it is for other popular phones. Of course sales will decrease as demand is met, why do you feel this needs to be pointed out?





    Quote:

    Hey, what a surprise, a bunch of people were interested June a year ago as well and then interested dropped off as Apple did nothing all year.



    You are indeed the glass half empty type. Sales declined after people bought millions of iPhones and the demand for them was met.



    Quote:

    If anything this article shows a troubling trend for Apple. Last year at the peak of interest, 56% said they were interested in the then new iPhone 3G. This year at the peak of interest, that same number is only 44%. Both times of year all the Apple buzz manages to crater RIM interest but it is stuck at the same 23% number. The lowering of Apple peak interest correlates very strongly to the increase in Palm interest.



    I don't see this as a significant problem. The point is that their is a hightened excitement and demand for the iPhone. The exact number of people who say they will buy what phone doesn't matter as much. 55% or 45% doesn't matter. What ultimatley matters is the number of people who actually purchase the phone.







    Quote:

    I'd be worried.



    Yes Apple is doomed.
  • Reply 18 of 73
    cmf2cmf2 Posts: 1,427member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by trumptman View Post


    I love Apple as much as the next guy the reasoning in this survey is crap. It basically measures if people are interested in purchasing right after the release and no on way ties that interest to sell through.



    Here is the graph since the automated slave cannot add them.







    Hey, what a surprise, a bunch of people were interested June a year ago as well and then interested dropped off as Apple did nothing all year.



    If anything this article shows a troubling trend for Apple. Last year at the peak of interest, 56% said they were interested in the then new iPhone 3G. This year at the peak of interest, that same number is only 44%. Both times of year all the Apple buzz manages to crater RIM interest but it is stuck at the same 23% number. The lowering of Apple peak interest correlates very strongly to the increase in Palm interest.



    I'd be worried.



    But the pie also got bigger, there are more people buying smartphones than a year ago, and the 3GS sales numbers at release were just as large, if not larger than the 3G. I wouldn't be too worried...



    Furthermore, this past year was the year where everyone else finally got into the game. Major shakeups like that wont happen every year. Of course the number of people planning on buying an iPhone dropped when google released a smart phone OS and Palm announced that they were not dead. This next year will be far more telling as Android and Web OS fully establish themselves, and the initial hype dies down (of course Android is a lot further along in the process than Web OS).
  • Reply 19 of 73
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    I was away for a few days, and must have missed this mega-event altogether! You mean....... you really mean..... you bought an iPhone, you like the iPhone, and you're even OK with ATT?!



    So, what's the story in terms of how you reconcile this with your previous (thousands of) posts?



    (This is an honest question - not trying to be sarcastic or anything! Swear. )



    Well I haven't see the first bill yet.

    I've had a few issues with connections but nothing major. It took about 3 hours to be fully up and running. The 3G Safari is sometimes slow but as my friend who's had the iPhone 2years told me - Verizon owns NY.

    I love this phone- the camera and video paired with the OS is a dream. I had checked out other Verizon phones ( I was up for a new one) and while they had cameras and video - it was the simplicity in the use that Apple brings that tipped me. I knew I had to have this device eventually and coupled with my b'day I got it Friday. As it was July 3rd most people had fled NY and only 3 people were in the line- it maintainted a 10 deep level for the 45 mins I was there.

    I also am diggin the MMS texting on this phone more than any other phone I've ever had. The iChat like display for texting is great.

    I just discovered yesterday the button for the vibrate is really not a button (I kept pushing it ) but a slide latch.

    I also found an amazing case the next day at a new AT&T store in my hood. It's called a ifrogz and it too is amazing. It's both ergonomic and non slippery.

    So to summarize, I reconcile all my prior posts by the fact that the new device itself with that great OS ( I was primed on the Touch) and App store overrides the AT&T issues here in NY. So far, I love it!
  • Reply 20 of 73
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,756member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    You know, you reach a point where you give in (AT&T) because the device at this point is unparalleled. The OS was always fantastic but paired with the new battery/camera/video tipped it over the edge for me.



    I had to do a double-take on this. It's like I'm in a parallel dimension.



    In any case, I'm happy for ya. you're not just using it, but enjoying it. That's what counts.
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