Also, a lot more shares to be traded, and a lot more traders to trade them. Anyway, what all of this automatic electronic trading really does (or so it seems to me) is exaggerate the tendency for the markets to move on momentum. Often stocks go up for no other reason than they are going up, and down because they are going down. It's the pile-on effect. In theory this all cancels out in the long run, but the run can be pretty long sometimes.
That would be fine if that was all that happened. It's that sudden ramp up or down over the space of seconds that's damaging. That's what is a concern. These matters, once they get out of hand, can never be properly rectified.
and then there is that matter of "peeking" for favored clients.
Everyone does not have an iPhone. Consider all the other carriers people refuse to switch from and you see additional potential for growth. Consider all of the potential growth through China Unicom, and you can imagine even more growth. There is still a lot of growing left for iPhone.
it seems like everyone has an iphone, touch or one of the smaller ipods. a lot of the hot women seem to like nanos as a fashion accessory. yes there is still growth left in apple and it will grow, but not at past growth rates.
go look at MS, Cisco, Dell and a long list of other dot com era darlings that are still around. they all grew this past decade but the stock went no where. MS grew 15% a year for a few years and the stock is still 1/3 of the 2000 price. company grows, expands, doubles or triples headcount and profit margins drop and growth drops. you need 20% to 50% growth to power a stock like apple went from 2002 to 2008.
intel's stock peaked about the time Gordon Moore said that the number of internet servers will grow into the millions by the latter half of this decade. and that was also back in 2000.
law of large numbers. as your earnings grow it's harder and harder to keep growing at the same growth rate. apple will grow, but a lot slower
The issues would be: (i) Has that growth (incl. China Unicom, CDMA etc) already been factored into the stock price; and (ii) Will comeptitors will stand still.
and everyone else is getting into the game. Sony hardware has made a lot of cool unreleased in the US devices. Reason is that their media people scream piracy and there is a huge boardroom fight and the media people win.
Sony is aiming for a 2011 release of the PSP/cell phone. Pre is maturing nicely.
Cell phone insides remind me of PC's back in the 1990's with cards everywhere. every year these get integrated on the same piece of silicon and there is less and less parts which also erodes apple's competative advantage in having only 2 models. This is what happened with Dell's direct vs HP's retail model. as everything became integrated HP's retail model saw costs plummet and Dell's direct model price advantage was eroded.
and the longer the iphone is out, the less competative it becomes. we already see this as almost every game is written for 1st gen devices due to the installed base. a good product from a big company with the resources to pay off the devs can release a new phone with games that support the new hardware and it will look better than the iphone because the Apple developers will still be writing code for 3 year old hardware. The Pre already has the exact same CPU/graphics as the iphone so it's not a big deal for Sony to release a phone in 2011 with hardware more powerful than Apple's that year.
and the biggest advantage is that the apps are cheap. if there is a better phone in 2011 when my iphone contract ends then it's no big deal for me to jump and "lose" $100 worth of apps. not like i have to buy all of them.
and everyone else is getting into the game. Sony hardware has made a lot of cool unreleased in the US devices. Reason is that their media people scream piracy and there is a huge boardroom fight and the media people win.
Sony is aiming for a 2011 release of the PSP/cell phone. Pre is maturing nicely.
Cell phone insides remind me of PC's back in the 1990's with cards everywhere. every year these get integrated on the same piece of silicon and there is less and less parts which also erodes apple's competative advantage in having only 2 models. This is what happened with Dell's direct vs HP's retail model. as everything became integrated HP's retail model saw costs plummet and Dell's direct model price advantage was eroded.
and the longer the iphone is out, the less competative it becomes. we already see this as almost every game is written for 1st gen devices due to the installed base. a good product from a big company with the resources to pay off the devs can release a new phone with games that support the new hardware and it will look better than the iphone because the Apple developers will still be writing code for 3 year old hardware. The Pre already has the exact same CPU/graphics as the iphone so it's not a big deal for Sony to release a phone in 2011 with hardware more powerful than Apple's that year.
and the biggest advantage is that the apps are cheap. if there is a better phone in 2011 when my iphone contract ends then it's no big deal for me to jump and "lose" $100 worth of apps. not like i have to buy all of them.
You're trying to prove a case with incorrect suppositions and a lack of facts. It won't work.
Can you point us to a link that has Sony making a statement about a PSP based cellphone for 2011, or is this just another guess or rumor? and even if it somehow were true, what makes you think it would be a success? The PSP hasn't been doing that well.
The Pre sales stink. They are well below what both Palm and Sprint obviously wanted and need. With estimates of sales between 23,000 and 25,000 a week, and possibly dropping from that level over time, the product hasn't been a bang up success. not close to what they had been hyping about before its release. Estimates are that in order to break even, Palm would have to sell about 3 million a year.
Another assumption your part is about the lack of competitiveness of the iPhone moving forward. Have you any proof of that either? You don't, do you? Just some wishful thinking.
Estimates are that Apple could sell 75 million of these a year in a few years as smartphone sales continue to rise quickly. That's even if they don't increase their marketshare by much.
Are you expecting Apple to cease coming out with new models? The 3GS sales confounded people as they thought the release would sell far less than the 3G a year ago. But, here we are, in the middle of the bad recession, and it did very well indeed.
I would imagine that you aren't a business person, or that you haven't actually looked at the software market.
Apple is selling more of the new models every day. As the new 3Gs replaces the older models over time for the larger part of the market, and it will happen very soon, developers will move to the newer machines. Also, just like games for the PC, there is no reason why users of advanced games can't use them on slower devices with some of the more cpu/gpu consuming cycles turned down, or off. This is a pretty well known and tested concept going back many years.
It's also interesting that the Pre is so much slower than the 3Gs in so many areas. And, by the way, the Pre GPU is slower than the one in the 3GS.
The issues would be: (i) Has that growth (incl. China Unicom, CDMA etc) already been factored into the stock price; and (ii) Will comeptitors will stand still.
Impossible to estimate China's numbers until it's actually in the market there for a year or so. It's a real wild card at this point.
However, China Mobile is not standing still... they are reportedly coming out with a whole line of Google phones to compete. Should get really, really interesting. I saw what level of phones were available there a few years ago, and even then it was impressive... built in GPS with turn-by-turn, for one thing.
The Pre sales stink. They are well below what both Palm and Sprint obviously wanted and need. With estimates of sales between 23,000 and 25,000 a week, and possibly dropping from that level over time, the product hasn't been a bang up success.
Hmm... those numbers just about cover all of the tech journalists who bought one to write their product reviews.
Hmm... those numbers just about cover all of the tech journalists who bought one to write their product reviews.
I think that the tech journalists who wrote about this really wanted Palm to do well, and so glossed over a lot of the flaws as though they didn't matter.
I was amazed at just how many who even did admit that the device has mechanical problems said that the OS was just so good that they could be ignored. Really? If Apple's devices were built as poorly, we would never finishing hearing the complaints from them.
But now, I'm seeing more and more mention of how disappointing the sales have been, and how they seem to be headed down. I'm also seeing more mention of the hardware flaws.
It's interesting that as with the hyped Kindle, neither company will tell us how many have actually sold, so it's left up to estimates.
everyone has an iphone. at least it seems like at least half the people on the NYC subway have an ipod or an iphone. the big growth is over. i remember back in 2003 i'd see one ipod a week.
and most of us iphone owners are going to stay with Windows until Apple comes down from it's ridiculous pricing or puts more horsepower into it's computers.
Don't forget that every two years those people with iPhones (at least in the US) will want another iPhone when they sign a new two year contract. At least that what's Apple counting on. So it's not just selling iPhones to new users. Old users are also back in the market after two years. And sometimes earlier if the new features are compelling enough.
Cells phones are like any other electronic tech gadget. Many people wants the lastest with the newest feature. Even if there's not really anything wrong with their old ones. If you count all the cell phones or computers sold since they first came out, you'll probably get a figure close to or greater than the World population. We know that not every man, woman and child in the World own a computer and cell phone. It's just that, so far, most have bought 3 or 4 or 5 cell phones or computers.
And another thing to remember is the accounting method Apple is using on their iPhones sold with a contract. It's spread over the life of the contract. Which means that all the "explosive" growth Apple is seeing in the iPhone sales now has not yet been fully accounted for in their earnings. Apple is still counting the iPhones sold a year ago in their recent earnings report. So if Apple sold 5 million iPhones last year. They only need to sell another 5 million this year to see a 100% growth in their iPhone earnings. Instead of 10 million iPhones otherwise. And right now it seems as though many 2G iPhone owners are buying a new iPhone after their contract expired. So the churn rate for iPhone users is low. But that can change anytime. And if it does, the affect of it will be spread out over many months. Even though many investers knows this, many more don't react until the numbers are reflected in their future earnings report. So the price of AAPL now, don't fully reflect a guarantee amount of future earning growth.
and the longer the iphone is out, the less competative it becomes. we already see this as almost every game is written for 1st gen devices
it isn't the gen of the device that is the issue. it is the OS version. Apple now requires all apps to be 3.0 compliant. some still work with the earlier versions but many have dropped this in favor of the newer OS. so even if you have a first gen iphone you have to load the latest OS
Comments
Also, a lot more shares to be traded, and a lot more traders to trade them. Anyway, what all of this automatic electronic trading really does (or so it seems to me) is exaggerate the tendency for the markets to move on momentum. Often stocks go up for no other reason than they are going up, and down because they are going down. It's the pile-on effect. In theory this all cancels out in the long run, but the run can be pretty long sometimes.
That would be fine if that was all that happened. It's that sudden ramp up or down over the space of seconds that's damaging. That's what is a concern. These matters, once they get out of hand, can never be properly rectified.
and then there is that matter of "peeking" for favored clients.
Everyone does not have an iPhone. Consider all the other carriers people refuse to switch from and you see additional potential for growth. Consider all of the potential growth through China Unicom, and you can imagine even more growth. There is still a lot of growing left for iPhone.
it seems like everyone has an iphone, touch or one of the smaller ipods. a lot of the hot women seem to like nanos as a fashion accessory. yes there is still growth left in apple and it will grow, but not at past growth rates.
go look at MS, Cisco, Dell and a long list of other dot com era darlings that are still around. they all grew this past decade but the stock went no where. MS grew 15% a year for a few years and the stock is still 1/3 of the 2000 price. company grows, expands, doubles or triples headcount and profit margins drop and growth drops. you need 20% to 50% growth to power a stock like apple went from 2002 to 2008.
intel's stock peaked about the time Gordon Moore said that the number of internet servers will grow into the millions by the latter half of this decade. and that was also back in 2000.
law of large numbers. as your earnings grow it's harder and harder to keep growing at the same growth rate. apple will grow, but a lot slower
There is still a lot of growing left for iPhone.
The issues would be: (i) Has that growth (incl. China Unicom, CDMA etc) already been factored into the stock price; and (ii) Will comeptitors will stand still.
Sony is aiming for a 2011 release of the PSP/cell phone. Pre is maturing nicely.
Cell phone insides remind me of PC's back in the 1990's with cards everywhere. every year these get integrated on the same piece of silicon and there is less and less parts which also erodes apple's competative advantage in having only 2 models. This is what happened with Dell's direct vs HP's retail model. as everything became integrated HP's retail model saw costs plummet and Dell's direct model price advantage was eroded.
and the longer the iphone is out, the less competative it becomes. we already see this as almost every game is written for 1st gen devices due to the installed base. a good product from a big company with the resources to pay off the devs can release a new phone with games that support the new hardware and it will look better than the iphone because the Apple developers will still be writing code for 3 year old hardware. The Pre already has the exact same CPU/graphics as the iphone so it's not a big deal for Sony to release a phone in 2011 with hardware more powerful than Apple's that year.
and the biggest advantage is that the apps are cheap. if there is a better phone in 2011 when my iphone contract ends then it's no big deal for me to jump and "lose" $100 worth of apps. not like i have to buy all of them.
and everyone else is getting into the game. Sony hardware has made a lot of cool unreleased in the US devices. Reason is that their media people scream piracy and there is a huge boardroom fight and the media people win.
Sony is aiming for a 2011 release of the PSP/cell phone. Pre is maturing nicely.
Cell phone insides remind me of PC's back in the 1990's with cards everywhere. every year these get integrated on the same piece of silicon and there is less and less parts which also erodes apple's competative advantage in having only 2 models. This is what happened with Dell's direct vs HP's retail model. as everything became integrated HP's retail model saw costs plummet and Dell's direct model price advantage was eroded.
and the longer the iphone is out, the less competative it becomes. we already see this as almost every game is written for 1st gen devices due to the installed base. a good product from a big company with the resources to pay off the devs can release a new phone with games that support the new hardware and it will look better than the iphone because the Apple developers will still be writing code for 3 year old hardware. The Pre already has the exact same CPU/graphics as the iphone so it's not a big deal for Sony to release a phone in 2011 with hardware more powerful than Apple's that year.
and the biggest advantage is that the apps are cheap. if there is a better phone in 2011 when my iphone contract ends then it's no big deal for me to jump and "lose" $100 worth of apps. not like i have to buy all of them.
You're trying to prove a case with incorrect suppositions and a lack of facts. It won't work.
Can you point us to a link that has Sony making a statement about a PSP based cellphone for 2011, or is this just another guess or rumor? and even if it somehow were true, what makes you think it would be a success? The PSP hasn't been doing that well.
The Pre sales stink. They are well below what both Palm and Sprint obviously wanted and need. With estimates of sales between 23,000 and 25,000 a week, and possibly dropping from that level over time, the product hasn't been a bang up success. not close to what they had been hyping about before its release. Estimates are that in order to break even, Palm would have to sell about 3 million a year.
Another assumption your part is about the lack of competitiveness of the iPhone moving forward. Have you any proof of that either? You don't, do you? Just some wishful thinking.
Estimates are that Apple could sell 75 million of these a year in a few years as smartphone sales continue to rise quickly. That's even if they don't increase their marketshare by much.
Are you expecting Apple to cease coming out with new models? The 3GS sales confounded people as they thought the release would sell far less than the 3G a year ago. But, here we are, in the middle of the bad recession, and it did very well indeed.
I would imagine that you aren't a business person, or that you haven't actually looked at the software market.
Apple is selling more of the new models every day. As the new 3Gs replaces the older models over time for the larger part of the market, and it will happen very soon, developers will move to the newer machines. Also, just like games for the PC, there is no reason why users of advanced games can't use them on slower devices with some of the more cpu/gpu consuming cycles turned down, or off. This is a pretty well known and tested concept going back many years.
It's also interesting that the Pre is so much slower than the 3Gs in so many areas. And, by the way, the Pre GPU is slower than the one in the 3GS.
Yeah, I'm sure "lots" of people will follow you.
The issues would be: (i) Has that growth (incl. China Unicom, CDMA etc) already been factored into the stock price; and (ii) Will comeptitors will stand still.
Impossible to estimate China's numbers until it's actually in the market there for a year or so. It's a real wild card at this point.
However, China Mobile is not standing still... they are reportedly coming out with a whole line of Google phones to compete. Should get really, really interesting. I saw what level of phones were available there a few years ago, and even then it was impressive... built in GPS with turn-by-turn, for one thing.
The Pre sales stink. They are well below what both Palm and Sprint obviously wanted and need. With estimates of sales between 23,000 and 25,000 a week, and possibly dropping from that level over time, the product hasn't been a bang up success.
Hmm... those numbers just about cover all of the tech journalists who bought one to write their product reviews.
Hmm... those numbers just about cover all of the tech journalists who bought one to write their product reviews.
I think that the tech journalists who wrote about this really wanted Palm to do well, and so glossed over a lot of the flaws as though they didn't matter.
I was amazed at just how many who even did admit that the device has mechanical problems said that the OS was just so good that they could be ignored. Really? If Apple's devices were built as poorly, we would never finishing hearing the complaints from them.
But now, I'm seeing more and more mention of how disappointing the sales have been, and how they seem to be headed down. I'm also seeing more mention of the hardware flaws.
It's interesting that as with the hyped Kindle, neither company will tell us how many have actually sold, so it's left up to estimates.
everyone has an iphone. at least it seems like at least half the people on the NYC subway have an ipod or an iphone. the big growth is over. i remember back in 2003 i'd see one ipod a week.
and most of us iphone owners are going to stay with Windows until Apple comes down from it's ridiculous pricing or puts more horsepower into it's computers.
Don't forget that every two years those people with iPhones (at least in the US) will want another iPhone when they sign a new two year contract. At least that what's Apple counting on. So it's not just selling iPhones to new users. Old users are also back in the market after two years. And sometimes earlier if the new features are compelling enough.
Cells phones are like any other electronic tech gadget. Many people wants the lastest with the newest feature. Even if there's not really anything wrong with their old ones. If you count all the cell phones or computers sold since they first came out, you'll probably get a figure close to or greater than the World population. We know that not every man, woman and child in the World own a computer and cell phone. It's just that, so far, most have bought 3 or 4 or 5 cell phones or computers.
And another thing to remember is the accounting method Apple is using on their iPhones sold with a contract. It's spread over the life of the contract. Which means that all the "explosive" growth Apple is seeing in the iPhone sales now has not yet been fully accounted for in their earnings. Apple is still counting the iPhones sold a year ago in their recent earnings report. So if Apple sold 5 million iPhones last year. They only need to sell another 5 million this year to see a 100% growth in their iPhone earnings. Instead of 10 million iPhones otherwise. And right now it seems as though many 2G iPhone owners are buying a new iPhone after their contract expired. So the churn rate for iPhone users is low. But that can change anytime. And if it does, the affect of it will be spread out over many months. Even though many investers knows this, many more don't react until the numbers are reflected in their future earnings report. So the price of AAPL now, don't fully reflect a guarantee amount of future earning growth.
and the longer the iphone is out, the less competative it becomes. we already see this as almost every game is written for 1st gen devices
it isn't the gen of the device that is the issue. it is the OS version. Apple now requires all apps to be 3.0 compliant. some still work with the earlier versions but many have dropped this in favor of the newer OS. so even if you have a first gen iphone you have to load the latest OS
'Me.' (Wording issues aside, care to provide a cite to the actual data)?
I think you mean 'citation', although a lot of new words from the New World seem to turn verbs into nouns.
Please stop already with your utterly inane, unsubstantiated, overblown, under-cited assertions.
Everybody! Stop posting unless you have cites!
For Pete's sake, this is a web forum. Things are meant to be informal. Sure, back up your claims if you have to but it's hardly Law School. Really.