Don't need to know the specifics --- only need to know that Verizon has never announced a single profit margin warning in the time period when they have the buy one get one free sale.
Verizon Wireless's profit margin kept going up when AT&T Wireless profit margin kept going down during the last 2 years when the iphone was launched.
Not guessing at all --- it's a legal/accounting issue.
Do you think that Verizon is doing some funny math on their SEC filings? I have no reason to believe that they are doing some funny math on their SEC filings.
I don't want to break your post down to innumerable little parts, though I'm itching to.
So, I'll say that I agree with the general thrust of your argument.
To pinpoint a few specifics though, and explain in more detail.
I agree that it's far from likely that Apple would license their phone OS. I threw that out as a consideration in the Win Mobile paradox.
Going back to what I said about having to pay for Win Mobile, and paying every year in order to allow already bought phones to upgrade to the newest version, which is one of the biggest revolutionary advances Apple made in the cell phone universe, and one of the ways Apple is "wrecking" the industry (when that was written, he meant that Apple was wrecking the cell industries "traditional" way of doing business, not that they were wrecking the industry itself, which some people had thought).
What Apple had done was to essentially end the business of requiring people to buy a new phone in order to get the newest OS advances. That was a major part of the industries strategy. Now, people can keep their phones longer, perhaps a year or two longer.
Man! That just KILLS sales for them, doesn't it? But Apple isn't depending on it.
So Win Mobile depends on selling licenses every year, and would depend on also selling them to the same people every year. How do the phone companies react to Apple GIVING the OS away each year? Well, they go to free OS's.
Well, that KILLs MS's strategy as well. Why pay them for the OS? Esp. since its not doing too well. And, Win Mobile is not Windows at all. It has nothing to do with Windows. It's a totally different, and much simpler, and more primitive phone OS that was saddled with a Windows look-a-like GUI to make Windows users comfortable with it.
So maybe instead, for those who care, we can say that Apple is wreaking havoc on the industry.
Now, if Apple were to license the OS, it could be very different. Just like the cry for Apple to license OS X to other computer manufacturers, I'm willing to bet that other phone manufacturers would be willing to pay Apple for their phone OS.
Right now, I think that it's the only phone OS that anyone would be willing to pay for. If that came with access to the App Store, people would be willing to pay $10 a year for the upgrade.
Would it dominate smartphones? Well, it could, particularly if phones were designed to make something of it.
But I don't think it will happen. Apple has other ideas.
As for marketshare, even if Apple doesn't license either OS, well, there too I see Apple increasing.
Remember that every computer that Apple sells in advance of the PC industries growth increase, is one less Windows machine being sold.
So when we finally come out of this terrible recession, and the PC industry again grows at 9% a year, and Apple again grows at 20 to 35% a year, they will be taking from the PC industries growth. Over time, if that can continue, even at a lower multiple, the percentage shift will be noticeable.
We've now seen Apple move from a low of 1.2% worldwide sales to 3.8%, and from 2.8% US sales to 8.7%. That's a pretty big movement in just a few years.
At one point in time several years ago when Apple again began to grow, I thought that they could get to perhaps 4% worldwide, and 10% USA. Now I feel that as long as Apple continues to do the right thing, that will be conservative.
I can see 15% USA, and 7% worldwide. If Apple moves to increase their worldwide presence enough, possibly 10% worldwide.
While I have hopes, I won't even guess if they can do better until they reach close to those goals and they are still growing well.
I do have to admit though that Win 7 might prove to be more difficult than Vista.
The above is a good analysts-- I agree, with the caveat that it is based on the current offerings of computers and smart phones (the subject of this thread).
Quote:
I don't believe that the iPhone OS is a second class OS, but the small size of the devices did require a dropping of a lot of what we expect in our computers and software.
I can see some far out solutions, but they remain that - science fiction. Otherwise, the small screen and so far, weak processing, limits what they can do. That part will change over time, but will never be close to the processing that a stationary machine will have.
There are two limits to small devices now, and for the medium term. We all know what they are.
The now almost ancient concept of entering text with a "standard" keyboard is still by far the best method available. There is none as good. That's one major problem with a smartphone, text entry will never be as good for long documents.
The second is, of course, the small screen. We simply can't get much information on a small screen. Panning is a terrible way to look at large informational programs.
So while the iPhone OS isn't second rate when compared to the "computer" version, it has its limits, and will for at least, oh, five more years. Further than that is too far away to predict.
Again, I generally agree, when talking about the current offerings of computers and smart phones. But the elephant in the rumor [sp] is the 10" mobile tablet.
Apple could use that device to [begin to] break the shackles of a small screen and kb/mouse.
Sure panning on a small screen is a pain... but it is also a pain on a large screen or multiple large screens. So, being flexible, we humans adjust to the capabilities at hand. A 10" display provides more than 4 times the area of the iPhone's 3 1/2" display.
Also, text entry becomes less of an issue with a larger touch screen displaying a larger keyboard (QWERTY or alternatives), I won't cite them here, but there are lots of references that show that speed, accuracy, lessening of physical pain/limitations can be significantly improved with different kb layouts. The touch screen gives the ability to experiment with different layouts on a virtual keyboard. Or, something as simple as moving the keys [in the standard QWERTY] farther apart (I have fat fingers).
So, while I agree with:
"That's one major problem with a smartphone, text entry will never be as good for long documents".
I might challenge that with a larger screen virtual keyboard.
In any case, I don't see people using a smart phone or a tablet for power text entry,
The computational needs of a tablet could be handled, today, with multiple ARM CPUs, or in the very near future, with MultiCore ARMs and/or PASC custom chips.
The OS, and the basic apps: To me it makes sense to enhance the iPhone OS X to support the capabilities that come with a larger screen and port the additional features of Mac OS X Snow Leopard that "make sense". I could go either way on "multiple windows vs in-your-face" on a 10-inch screen. I don't think Photoshop, Final Cut Studio, or Logic make sense on a 10' tablet, but enhanced, touch-driven, iLife and iWorks apps would. I suspect Apple has already done most of the work on both the OS and the apps.
IMO, the limiting feature of a mobile tablet will be weight, or to be more specific the weight of the battery necessary to use the device for a reasonable period of time.
If Apple can hit the sweet spot and provide a mobile device that meets the needs of the masses, it will revolutionize both the smart phone and (mobile, for now) computer industries.
Not guessing at all --- it's a legal/accounting issue.
Do you think that Verizon is doing some funny math on their SEC filings? I have no reason to believe that they are doing some funny math on their SEC filings.
No. Just that their profits dropped as well, for the same reasons AT&T profit dropped.
i think that's going to be the biggest drawback for android. the average consumer will have to read the fineprint about the included features for specific models. that could lead to some buyer's remorse. overall i think android is going to be a viable alternative. it's just not going to be the no-brainer that (i think) the iphone is.
Well it sucks less than Symbian to develop for and works better than Symbian too. Sure Android will have large market share. The question will it have larger revenue share than OSX?
You can pretty much assume Android will kill off the other Linux variants except for Palm.
Android is currently nowhere. Google seems to be half-assing it. When it picks up momentum, if ever, then maybe we can have these comparisons.
Android isn't yet a revenue stream for Google. The iPhone is for Apple.
To be honest, I'm not sure how Android gets monetized in a big way for Google. I guess it doesn't and is there just to get folks more wrapped into the Google ecosystem. Of which I am a mostly happy denizen. Google is better at web apps than Apple...even if I do pay Apple to be on mobileme it's mostly so-so.
You could say that Apple is half-assing Mobileme as well.
Don't need to know the specifics --- only need to know that Verizon has never announced a single profit margin warning in the time period when they have the buy one get one free sale.
Verizon Wireless's profit margin kept going up when AT&T Wireless profit margin kept going down during the last 2 years when the iphone was launched.
"King said Verizon's territory, which includes New York and New Jersey, has helped it weather the economic downturn more easily than industry leader AT&T Inc (T.N), which serves areas such as Florida, hit hard by the housing crisis.
"You are clearly seeing some geographic differences in the areas they operate in with regards to economic pressures," King said, even as he noted that Verizon's FiOS growth was weaker than he had expected"
Odd how I might expect an analyst to remark on what a drag the iPhone is on AT&T in that paragraph as opposed to regional differences.
"AT&T Inc (T.N) posted a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly profit on improved margins for its wireless service, helped by the iPhone, and strong growth for its video and high-speed Internet service.
Subsidies for Apple Inc's (AAPL.O) iPhone had cost AT&T dearly in recent quarters, but analysts said the partnership is now starting to help rather than hurt profits as users of the touch-screen phone spend heavily on data services.
AT&T shares rose nearly 4 percent as analysts said the biggest U.S. phone company had reported impressive results given the weak economy.
"For this economy, it was an outstanding performance," said Commresearch analyst Gregory Lundberg, citing very strong broadband, video and wireless growth.
AT&T's first-quarter profit fell to $3.13 billion, or 53 cents per share, from $3.46 billion, or 57 cents a share, a year earlier. Analysts on average were expecting 48 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.
IPHONE BOOST/PREPAID DRAG
AT&T reported a wireless profit margin of 40.9 percent, above the 39.2 percent forecast by Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett, who saw iPhone as the key driver.
AT&T said 1.6 million Apple iPhone customers had activated services on the AT&T network during the quarter, more than 40 percent of whom were new to the telephone operator.
"The base of iPhone customers is now large enough to offset the subsidies for new iPhone users," said Moffett."
And then all the profit and profit margins plunged in Q2 when they launched the new iphone.
So basically Apple launches a new iphone every 12 months and AT&T gets one single quarter where they have a lower than expected margins (but still lower margins) and then promptly gets their profit margin fall down by 3-4% in the quarter when they have a new iphone.
Actually, Verizon Wireless' operating income went up and profit margins went up.
You can look at the first sentence in this Verizon report of earnings. As you can clearly see, when compared to last year's quarter, which is what we are, or at least should be talking about, both their EPS and their adjusted EPS went DOWN.
Their ARPU went down to $51.10.
And as a result of Allitel's purchase, their revenues went UP. I would hope so!
And then all the profit and profit margins plunged in Q2 when they launched the new iphone.
So basically Apple launches a new iphone every 12 months and AT&T gets one single quarter where they have a lower than expected margins (but still lower margins) and then promptly gets their profit margin fall down by 3-4% in the quarter when they have a new iphone.
You twist the numbers. Just give up. You're wrong.
You can look at the first sentence in this Verizon report of earnings. As you can clearly see, when compared to last year's quarter, which is what we are, or at least should be talking about, both their EPS and their adjusted EPS went DOWN.
Their ARPU went down to $51.10.
And as a result of Allitel's purchase, their revenues went UP. I would hope so!
Gentlemen, I am sure MS is happy that this thread has been diverted from the fact that the iPhone has outsold all WM phones in Q2 combined. As someone else put it in another thread, this is MS's Wile E. Coyote moment where there feet are still moving, but the ground has already been yanked out from under them.
Gentlemen, I am sure MS is happy that this thread has been diverted from the fact that the iPhone has outsold all WM phones in Q2 combined. As someone else put it in another thread, this is MS's Wile E. Coyote moment where there feet are still moving, but the ground has already been yanked out from under them.
Nice statement! WM really needs to get out of their sidebar clunky interface and simplify their silly settings manual in the phone that will take a day to personalise. However, WM is old and like Symbian, seriously needs a OS refresh to match the iPhone's OS sleekness IMO.
Comments
Don't need to know the specifics --- only need to know that Verizon has never announced a single profit margin warning in the time period when they have the buy one get one free sale.
Verizon Wireless's profit margin kept going up when AT&T Wireless profit margin kept going down during the last 2 years when the iphone was launched.
So without the numbers, you're just guessing.
So without the numbers, you're just guessing.
Not guessing at all --- it's a legal/accounting issue.
Do you think that Verizon is doing some funny math on their SEC filings? I have no reason to believe that they are doing some funny math on their SEC filings.
I don't want to break your post down to innumerable little parts, though I'm itching to.
So, I'll say that I agree with the general thrust of your argument.
To pinpoint a few specifics though, and explain in more detail.
I agree that it's far from likely that Apple would license their phone OS. I threw that out as a consideration in the Win Mobile paradox.
Going back to what I said about having to pay for Win Mobile, and paying every year in order to allow already bought phones to upgrade to the newest version, which is one of the biggest revolutionary advances Apple made in the cell phone universe, and one of the ways Apple is "wrecking" the industry (when that was written, he meant that Apple was wrecking the cell industries "traditional" way of doing business, not that they were wrecking the industry itself, which some people had thought).
What Apple had done was to essentially end the business of requiring people to buy a new phone in order to get the newest OS advances. That was a major part of the industries strategy. Now, people can keep their phones longer, perhaps a year or two longer.
Man! That just KILLS sales for them, doesn't it? But Apple isn't depending on it.
So Win Mobile depends on selling licenses every year, and would depend on also selling them to the same people every year. How do the phone companies react to Apple GIVING the OS away each year? Well, they go to free OS's.
Well, that KILLs MS's strategy as well. Why pay them for the OS? Esp. since its not doing too well. And, Win Mobile is not Windows at all. It has nothing to do with Windows. It's a totally different, and much simpler, and more primitive phone OS that was saddled with a Windows look-a-like GUI to make Windows users comfortable with it.
So maybe instead, for those who care, we can say that Apple is wreaking havoc on the industry.
Now, if Apple were to license the OS, it could be very different. Just like the cry for Apple to license OS X to other computer manufacturers, I'm willing to bet that other phone manufacturers would be willing to pay Apple for their phone OS.
Right now, I think that it's the only phone OS that anyone would be willing to pay for. If that came with access to the App Store, people would be willing to pay $10 a year for the upgrade.
Would it dominate smartphones? Well, it could, particularly if phones were designed to make something of it.
But I don't think it will happen. Apple has other ideas.
As for marketshare, even if Apple doesn't license either OS, well, there too I see Apple increasing.
Remember that every computer that Apple sells in advance of the PC industries growth increase, is one less Windows machine being sold.
So when we finally come out of this terrible recession, and the PC industry again grows at 9% a year, and Apple again grows at 20 to 35% a year, they will be taking from the PC industries growth. Over time, if that can continue, even at a lower multiple, the percentage shift will be noticeable.
We've now seen Apple move from a low of 1.2% worldwide sales to 3.8%, and from 2.8% US sales to 8.7%. That's a pretty big movement in just a few years.
At one point in time several years ago when Apple again began to grow, I thought that they could get to perhaps 4% worldwide, and 10% USA. Now I feel that as long as Apple continues to do the right thing, that will be conservative.
I can see 15% USA, and 7% worldwide. If Apple moves to increase their worldwide presence enough, possibly 10% worldwide.
While I have hopes, I won't even guess if they can do better until they reach close to those goals and they are still growing well.
I do have to admit though that Win 7 might prove to be more difficult than Vista.
The above is a good analysts-- I agree, with the caveat that it is based on the current offerings of computers and smart phones (the subject of this thread).
I don't believe that the iPhone OS is a second class OS, but the small size of the devices did require a dropping of a lot of what we expect in our computers and software.
I can see some far out solutions, but they remain that - science fiction. Otherwise, the small screen and so far, weak processing, limits what they can do. That part will change over time, but will never be close to the processing that a stationary machine will have.
There are two limits to small devices now, and for the medium term. We all know what they are.
The now almost ancient concept of entering text with a "standard" keyboard is still by far the best method available. There is none as good. That's one major problem with a smartphone, text entry will never be as good for long documents.
The second is, of course, the small screen. We simply can't get much information on a small screen. Panning is a terrible way to look at large informational programs.
So while the iPhone OS isn't second rate when compared to the "computer" version, it has its limits, and will for at least, oh, five more years. Further than that is too far away to predict.
Again, I generally agree, when talking about the current offerings of computers and smart phones. But the elephant in the rumor [sp] is the 10" mobile tablet.
Apple could use that device to [begin to] break the shackles of a small screen and kb/mouse.
Sure panning on a small screen is a pain... but it is also a pain on a large screen or multiple large screens. So, being flexible, we humans adjust to the capabilities at hand. A 10" display provides more than 4 times the area of the iPhone's 3 1/2" display.
Also, text entry becomes less of an issue with a larger touch screen displaying a larger keyboard (QWERTY or alternatives), I won't cite them here, but there are lots of references that show that speed, accuracy, lessening of physical pain/limitations can be significantly improved with different kb layouts. The touch screen gives the ability to experiment with different layouts on a virtual keyboard. Or, something as simple as moving the keys [in the standard QWERTY] farther apart (I have fat fingers).
So, while I agree with:
"That's one major problem with a smartphone, text entry will never be as good for long documents".
I might challenge that with a larger screen virtual keyboard.
In any case, I don't see people using a smart phone or a tablet for power text entry,
The computational needs of a tablet could be handled, today, with multiple ARM CPUs, or in the very near future, with MultiCore ARMs and/or PASC custom chips.
The OS, and the basic apps: To me it makes sense to enhance the iPhone OS X to support the capabilities that come with a larger screen and port the additional features of Mac OS X Snow Leopard that "make sense". I could go either way on "multiple windows vs in-your-face" on a 10-inch screen. I don't think Photoshop, Final Cut Studio, or Logic make sense on a 10' tablet, but enhanced, touch-driven, iLife and iWorks apps would. I suspect Apple has already done most of the work on both the OS and the apps.
IMO, the limiting feature of a mobile tablet will be weight, or to be more specific the weight of the battery necessary to use the device for a reasonable period of time.
If Apple can hit the sweet spot and provide a mobile device that meets the needs of the masses, it will revolutionize both the smart phone and (mobile, for now) computer industries.
A lot of my investment $ are betting they can!
*
Why stop there? Why not label anyone who doesn't think Android will beat Apple as clinically psychotic and probably suffers from microcephaly as well?
Why stating the obvious..?
Not guessing at all --- it's a legal/accounting issue.
Do you think that Verizon is doing some funny math on their SEC filings? I have no reason to believe that they are doing some funny math on their SEC filings.
No. Just that their profits dropped as well, for the same reasons AT&T profit dropped.
Android is currently nowhere. Google seems to be half-assing it. When it picks up momentum, if ever, then maybe we can have these comparisons.
The iPhone sets the bar. It's the standards to beat. So far the competiton is failing miserably, even after two years.
No. Just that their profits dropped as well, for the same reasons AT&T profit dropped.
Actually, Verizon Wireless' operating income went up and profit margins went up.
i think that's going to be the biggest drawback for android. the average consumer will have to read the fineprint about the included features for specific models. that could lead to some buyer's remorse. overall i think android is going to be a viable alternative. it's just not going to be the no-brainer that (i think) the iphone is.
Well it sucks less than Symbian to develop for and works better than Symbian too. Sure Android will have large market share. The question will it have larger revenue share than OSX?
You can pretty much assume Android will kill off the other Linux variants except for Palm.
What's all this Android vs. Apple talk?
Android is currently nowhere. Google seems to be half-assing it. When it picks up momentum, if ever, then maybe we can have these comparisons.
Android isn't yet a revenue stream for Google. The iPhone is for Apple.
To be honest, I'm not sure how Android gets monetized in a big way for Google. I guess it doesn't and is there just to get folks more wrapped into the Google ecosystem. Of which I am a mostly happy denizen. Google is better at web apps than Apple...even if I do pay Apple to be on mobileme it's mostly so-so.
You could say that Apple is half-assing Mobileme as well.
Don't need to know the specifics --- only need to know that Verizon has never announced a single profit margin warning in the time period when they have the buy one get one free sale.
Verizon Wireless's profit margin kept going up when AT&T Wireless profit margin kept going down during the last 2 years when the iphone was launched.
"King said Verizon's territory, which includes New York and New Jersey, has helped it weather the economic downturn more easily than industry leader AT&T Inc (T.N), which serves areas such as Florida, hit hard by the housing crisis.
"You are clearly seeing some geographic differences in the areas they operate in with regards to economic pressures," King said, even as he noted that Verizon's FiOS growth was weaker than he had expected"
http://www.reuters.com/article/techn...AB289020080728
Odd how I might expect an analyst to remark on what a drag the iPhone is on AT&T in that paragraph as opposed to regional differences.
"AT&T Inc (T.N) posted a smaller-than-expected drop in quarterly profit on improved margins for its wireless service, helped by the iPhone, and strong growth for its video and high-speed Internet service.
Subsidies for Apple Inc's (AAPL.O) iPhone had cost AT&T dearly in recent quarters, but analysts said the partnership is now starting to help rather than hurt profits as users of the touch-screen phone spend heavily on data services.
AT&T shares rose nearly 4 percent as analysts said the biggest U.S. phone company had reported impressive results given the weak economy.
"For this economy, it was an outstanding performance," said Commresearch analyst Gregory Lundberg, citing very strong broadband, video and wireless growth.
AT&T's first-quarter profit fell to $3.13 billion, or 53 cents per share, from $3.46 billion, or 57 cents a share, a year earlier. Analysts on average were expecting 48 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.
IPHONE BOOST/PREPAID DRAG
AT&T reported a wireless profit margin of 40.9 percent, above the 39.2 percent forecast by Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett, who saw iPhone as the key driver.
AT&T said 1.6 million Apple iPhone customers had activated services on the AT&T network during the quarter, more than 40 percent of whom were new to the telephone operator.
"The base of iPhone customers is now large enough to offset the subsidies for new iPhone users," said Moffett."
http://www.reuters.com/article/techn...53L29L20090422
Gee, analysts think you're wrong.
So basically Apple launches a new iphone every 12 months and AT&T gets one single quarter where they have a lower than expected margins (but still lower margins) and then promptly gets their profit margin fall down by 3-4% in the quarter when they have a new iphone.
Actually, Verizon Wireless' operating income went up and profit margins went up.
You can look at the first sentence in this Verizon report of earnings. As you can clearly see, when compared to last year's quarter, which is what we are, or at least should be talking about, both their EPS and their adjusted EPS went DOWN.
Their ARPU went down to $51.10.
And as a result of Allitel's purchase, their revenues went UP. I would hope so!
I don't know where you get your information from.
http://newscenter.verizon.com/press-...s-revenue.html
And then all the profit and profit margins plunged in Q2 when they launched the new iphone.
So basically Apple launches a new iphone every 12 months and AT&T gets one single quarter where they have a lower than expected margins (but still lower margins) and then promptly gets their profit margin fall down by 3-4% in the quarter when they have a new iphone.
You twist the numbers. Just give up. You're wrong.
You can look at the first sentence in this Verizon report of earnings. As you can clearly see, when compared to last year's quarter, which is what we are, or at least should be talking about, both their EPS and their adjusted EPS went DOWN.
Their ARPU went down to $51.10.
And as a result of Allitel's purchase, their revenues went UP. I would hope so!
I don't know where you get your information from.
http://newscenter.verizon.com/press-...s-revenue.html
I said Verizon Wireless. EPS and adjusted EPS are both for the whole Verizon parent company.
As a result of the Alltel purchase --- their ARPU went down.
I got the information from here --- the wireless section of their business, but their operating income and profit margins went up:
http://investor.verizon.com/financia...66680247494874
I said Verizon Wireless. EPS and adjusted EPS are both for the whole Verizon parent company.
As a result of the Alltel purchase --- their ARPU went down.
I got the information from here --- the wireless section of their business, but their operating income and profit margins went up:
http://investor.verizon.com/financia...66680247494874
As you constantly like to point out to us, Alltel is part of Verizon now, so their contribution is Verizon's performance.
As I said Verizon's ARPU went down.
Facts are facts.
As you constantly like to point out to us, Alltel is part of Verizon now, so their contribution is Verizon's performance.
As I said Verizon's ARPU went down.
Facts are facts.
It was an external one time event --- and on a pro-forma basis, Verizon Wireless went up.
Meanwhile, with 2 years of iphone selling --- AT&T Wireless is still behind on the ARPU with $50.70.
It was an external one time event --- and on a pro-forma basis, Verizon Wireless went up.
Meanwhile, with 2 years of iphone selling --- AT&T Wireless is still behind on the ARPU with $50.70.
But it's moved up because of it, and will continue to do so.
Gentlemen, I am sure MS is happy that this thread has been diverted from the fact that the iPhone has outsold all WM phones in Q2 combined. As someone else put it in another thread, this is MS's Wile E. Coyote moment where there feet are still moving, but the ground has already been yanked out from under them.
Nice statement! WM really needs to get out of their sidebar clunky interface and simplify their silly settings manual in the phone that will take a day to personalise. However, WM is old and like Symbian, seriously needs a OS refresh to match the iPhone's OS sleekness IMO.