Multi-phone Android platform seen overtaking iPhone by 2012

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  • Reply 101 of 144
    This sounds a little Familiar. When the iPod was about the same age and the Zune and others were trying to grab some share. There were some articles - "right here - that said much the same thing. One I remember in particular stated "yes the the Zune is a bit clunky right now, But MS will learn, just wait a little and they will put out some editions that will outshine the iPod. Well we all see how accurate that commentator was. Not that Apple should not sit up and take notice and make some changes in certain areas. The big one in most markets is the choice of carrier. There were perhaps some good solid reasons for ATT in the US for example. However I question how many would not agree that ATT's performance has not been as helpful to Apple's iPhone sales as Apple was hoping for. I for one shall be pleased when that arrangement is adjusted somewhat.

    HT
  • Reply 102 of 144
    paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,729member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


    y

    I have had a cosmetically different phone 6 times in the last 2 years. It's called buying a different case.



    Good for you smartass, but why would I buy a case for my phone and a) double its size, b) make my very nice phone look like shit?
  • Reply 103 of 144
    roboduderobodude Posts: 273member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post


    I'm not sure what you mean by this.



    If people don't buy it in the first place (because it looks stale), then how are we going to know their customer satisfaction?
  • Reply 104 of 144
    paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,729member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by GQB View Post


    Right. I'm so tired of that stale old car look of 4 tires, gas pedal to the right of the brake and steering wheel instead of joystick. I want a new car every 6 months with everything shuffled simply to keep the 'short attention span theatre' folks entertained.



    Your analogy is a little topsy turvy there, because that is exactly what happens. The basic car remains the same but the 'look' changes. Same with the iphone, same basic functionality but a different look. You may wish we were still driving model T Fords (with souped up engines and independent suspension) but most people like change even if it is just superficial
  • Reply 105 of 144
    anonymouseanonymouse Posts: 6,857member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tulkas View Post


    I think you've gotten in over your head, again, by making thoughtless arguments, again. Persistence in admirable, but no so much when you are clearly shown to be wrong. Again.



    Well, if the 16GB 3GS (x) is the same as the 32GB 3GS (y), and y is $100 more than x, why are so many people buying y if it is the same as x?
  • Reply 106 of 144
    tulkastulkas Posts: 3,757member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post


    Well, if the 16GB 3GS (x) is the same as the 32GB 3GS (y), and y is $100 more than x, why are so many people buying y if it is the same as x?



    Same model. That option increases price. Same model. The paid option doesn't make it a different model.



    They could release a REDtm option of the 3GS and charge more for it. That would make it no more of a different model than black vs. white.



    You are really stretching now to desperately cling to a failed argument. Maybe you will bring the refurbed offerings as another model.
  • Reply 107 of 144
    jupiteronejupiterone Posts: 1,564member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tulkas View Post


    No. Adding a 3G antenna makes it a 3G model. The capability this adds is the ability to use the 3G network...i.e. a new functionality...new capability.



    Adding capacity gives you capacity.



    What is it then that you are expecting? That Apple would come out with a flip-iPhone? A slide-out iPhone? An iPhone with a physical keyboard? A mini iPhone nano? What would constitute a new model for you?
  • Reply 108 of 144
    anonymouseanonymouse Posts: 6,857member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tulkas View Post


    Same model. That option increases price. Same model. The paid option doesn't make it a different model.



    So explain to me how your argument is anything but a semantic distinction based on how you are defining 'model'?



    EDIT: And following up on the post above, exactly how many feature differences (or 'options' as you call them) does an iPhone have to have before it is considered a distinct 'model', by your definition of course?
  • Reply 109 of 144
    tulkastulkas Posts: 3,757member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JupiterOne View Post


    What is it then that you are expecting? That Apple would come out with a flip-iPhone? A slide-out iPhone? An iPhone with a physical keyboard? A mini iPhone nano? What would constitute a new model for you?



    I don't expect anything in this regard. One of the reasons for Apple's success since Jobs return has been in their simplified product line. They don't need dozens of different models of iPhones. One model per year with colour and capacity as options for each model are enough.



    What would constitute a new model? Anything significant change or addition of capability or functionality would do. Any of the changes you mention. Or a front facing camera or

    a new CPU or GPU. Removing functionality for a stripped down cheaper version would also be a new model. A very significant change to the form factor, not just colour, might also be enough to call it a new model. Adding some more storage or changing the colour do not.



    Can you imagine the boos at a WWDC if Jobs walked out and introduced a 'new' model that was just a larger flash capacity or came in a new colour? Clearly colour and capacity to not distinguish models. They are options.



    Some posters just get themselves in a hole by posting the first thing that enters their head to respond to a post they disagree with. At least they are persistent.
  • Reply 110 of 144
    anonymouseanonymouse Posts: 6,857member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tulkas View Post


    Anything significant change or addition of capability or functionality would do.



    Can you define what exactly constitutes a 'significant' change? Not by example -- that would leave us in the dark when trying to decide if some unmentioned feature counts as a new model or not -- but with a concise definition?
  • Reply 111 of 144
    tulkastulkas Posts: 3,757member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post


    Can you define what exactly constitutes a 'significant' change? Not by example -- that would leave us in the dark when trying to decide if some unmentioned feature counts as a new model or not -- but with a concise definition?



    Stupid question, but I am used to your distractions. Significant is clearly subjective.



    If capacity and colour (but otherwise identical) are significant enough for you to consider new or different models, great. You are a salesperson's wet dream. Most will be more decerning. More storage is not enough to create distinct models.
  • Reply 112 of 144
    gqbgqb Posts: 1,934member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by paxman View Post


    Your analogy is a little topsy turvy there, because that is exactly what happens. The basic car remains the same but the 'look' changes. Same with the iphone, same basic functionality but a different look. You may wish we were still driving model T Fords (with souped up engines and independent suspension) but most people like change even if it is just superficial



    I think I have to stand by my admittedly hastily drawn analogy.

    The iPhone has defined (at least for itself, and apparently for a lot of wannabes) a form factor of

    - minimal (i.e. one) button

    - no keyboard

    - large screen

    - touch/voice input



    with everything else visible on the outside being pretty much software. There are obviously going to be endless changes under the hood.



    The Android/WinMobile class of devices are differentiating themselves precisely by coming out with a large variety of phones that differ at that interface level. Specifically, keyboard, buttons, and therefore, screen size. If those elements aren't akin to the interface elements of a car (pedals, steering wheel), I don't know what is.



    In any event, exactly what is Apple supposed to do to appease people who only see improvement in terms of an ever changing box?



    Its a screen that you touch. You can waste time screwing around with that (and in the process, making your independent developers have to write for each), or call the box done and work on the software and internals.



    I think Apple's answer is clear.



    edit: ok, so the phone has 5 buttons... so shoot me. I don't see the edge of the device as the main battleground.
  • Reply 113 of 144
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jasenj1 View Post


    Exactly. Verizon is notorious for crippling their phones unless you pay them to unlock the features that are already on board. I expect the different carriers will lock down their phones with different DRM "features" to make sure only their apps run on their phones. Enabling this DRM checking will be a headache to developers who will have deal with different processes and levels of intrusiveness for all the carriers. In the end, devs - and users- will prefer Apple and its "one devil" model vs "lots of demons".



    I expect the Android platform will be reasonably successful, but Apple's seamless, total-package approach, will dominate the splintered Android ecosystem.



    - Jasen.



    We still have to see that Android Market fragmentation. The developer - unlike on iPhone - always have a chance to deliver the application directly to the end user so I guess it won't be ever that much of headache.. but I got your point and it is something Google needs to monitor to have a successful platform. So far they pushed all the right buttons.
  • Reply 114 of 144
    justflybobjustflybob Posts: 1,337member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tulkas View Post


    Stupid question, but I am used to your distractions. Significant is clearly subjective.



    If capacity and colour (but otherwise identical) are significant enough for you to consider new or different models, great. You are a salesperson's wet dream. Most will be more decerning. More storage is not enough to create distinct models.



    Ah, I was wondering where Dr. Millmoss went to.
  • Reply 115 of 144
    anonymouseanonymouse Posts: 6,857member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tulkas View Post


    Stupid question, but I am used to your distractions. Significant is clearly subjective.



    If capacity and colour (but otherwise identical) are significant enough for you to consider new or different models, great. You are a salesperson's wet dream. Most will be more decerning. More storage is not enough to create distinct models.



    Well, I didn't raise the color issue, someone else did, I only said I would be happy to include those if they insisted. So, significant can be whatever your whimsy dictates? Your distinctions are wholly arbitrary.



    Most people that I speak to seem to distinguish the 16GB and 32GB iPhones as different models, and the 3GS and 3G as different models from different generations. But, however you like to see this is fine.
  • Reply 116 of 144
    jupiteronejupiterone Posts: 1,564member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tulkas View Post


    I don't expect anything in this regard. One of the reasons for Apple's success since Jobs return has been in their simplified product line. They don't need dozens of different models of iPhones. One model per year with colour and capacity as options for each model are enough.



    OK, we agree here.



    Quote:

    What would constitute a new model? Anything significant change or addition of capability or functionality would do. Any of the changes you mention. Or a front facing camera or a new CPU or GPU. Removing functionality for a stripped down cheaper version would also be a new model. A very significant change to the form factor, not just colour, might also be enough to call it a new model. Adding some more storage or changing the colour do not.



    OK, and in your opinion, which of those things do you see as likely?
  • Reply 117 of 144
    paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,729member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by GQB;


    I think I have to stand by my admittedly hastily drawn analogy.

    The iPhone has defined (at least for itself, and apparently for a lot of wannabes) a form factor of

    - minimal (i.e. one) button

    - no keyboard

    - large screen

    - touch/voice input



    with everything else visible on the outside being pretty much software. There are obviously going to be endless changes under the hood.



    The Android/WinMobile class of devices are differentiating themselves precisely by coming out with a large variety of phones that differ at that interface level. Specifically, keyboard, buttons, and therefore, screen size. If those elements aren't akin to the interface elements of a car (pedals, steering wheel), I don't know what is.



    In any event, exactly what is Apple supposed to do to appease people who only see improvement in terms of an ever changing box?



    Its a screen that you touch. You can waste time screwing around with that (and in the process, making your independent developers have to write for each), or call the box done and work on the software and internals.



    I think Apple's answer is clear.



    edit: ok, so the phone has 5 buttons... so shoot me. I don't see the edge of the device as the main battleground.



    There are plenty scope for design variations to the iPhone without adding buttons and keyboards. I am certainthe present iteration of iPhones is going to look positively antiquated futher down the line. I love the way the iPhone slide unobtrusively into a pocket but I have never been sold on it's looks.
  • Reply 118 of 144
    jfanningjfanning Posts: 3,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mbarriault View Post


    Where, exactly does Symbian have this 50% smartphone market share? In all my travels I've never seen a Nokia smartphone on anything but a display shelf, but I see iPhones, WinMo phones, and Android phones everywhere, and even a few Pres. No Nokia.



    That's funny, I see Nokia phones everywhere I go, no Apple phones at all.
  • Reply 119 of 144
    jfanningjfanning Posts: 3,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Wings View Post


    Dan has an excellent piece about this fantasy story here:

    http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2009/1...r-in-2012-why/

    He makes a whole lot of sense, explaining why Gartner's shill income is about to evaporate from WinMo and has to look elsewhere for FUD dollars.



    Daniel and excellent in the same sentence is a stretch, he is writing an article about Android, yet in the second paragraph he starts (and continues) abusing Microsoft, he is a one trick pony...
  • Reply 120 of 144
    tulkastulkas Posts: 3,757member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JupiterOne View Post


    OK, and in your opinion, which of those things do you see as likely?



    No idea. No sense in making predictions this far out.



    I will guess they won't just up the capacity and call it a new model. No one is that dumb.
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