If Apple was going to bring out the MMMMT (mythical mid-range Mac mini-tower) they would have done so years ago when the market would have been bigger. I've watched the runes all that time and the reasoning is clear. Consider the article's figures:
On its current roll Apple has done nothing for years but target the fastest-growing, most fluid, largest segments of markets it covets (or in the case of Apple TV one which is still waiting to become one). The mid-range AC-tethered market - however appealing to so many of the hard corps here - hardly qualifies.
I and others have repeatedly noted that the only spur that would lead Apple to release such a machine at this stage - in a shrinking, commodity area with fierce margin pressures - would be if they decided to make a serious push in one or more of the business markets - markets which after decades have never been more than an afterthought in their strategic directions - and the studies indicated it could serve both enough administrative assistants/clerks/etc. and gearheads to justify the R&D, inventory, SKU proliferation, support, etc.
And I still don't see it, even though I still want one. So I suggest getting real on this continuing non-saga. Apple hears you, still appreciate your following and proselytizing, etc., they just can't count enough of you to justify such a nice present in your Christmas stocking, when they're so focused on mining richer ore.
The problem is that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy type scenario for Apple. Look at their notebooks, they are extremely similar to what other manufacturers offer. They have the same general shape, size, weight, screen - keyboard - trackpad placement, except that they use premium materials.
Take a look at their desktops, the only one that is even remotely similar to other manufacturers is the Mac Pro. The Mac Mini and iMac are like nothing else, are behind on specs, and are a much tougher sale than any of the Apple notebooks. Other manufacturers have a more equal mix of desktop to notebook sales because people want to buy what they offer.
Apple makes no effort in the desktop market and then points to the low numbers to justify their not making an effort there.
The problem is that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy type scenario for Apple. Look at their notebooks, they are extremely similar to what other manufacturers offer. They have the same general shape, size, weight, screen - keyboard - trackpad placement, except that they use premium materials.
Take a look at their desktops, the only one that is even remotely similar to other manufacturers is the Mac Pro. The Mac Mini and iMac are like nothing else, are behind on specs, and are a much tougher sale than any of the Apple notebooks. Other manufacturers have a more equal mix of desktop to notebook sales because people want to buy what they offer.
Apple makes no effort in the desktop market and then points to the low numbers to justify their not making an effort there.
I think Apple (or SJ) is just philosophically opposed to the normal desktops
- I agree with you that a normal Mid-range desktop would be a good seller, and not really need much R & D
- and if Apple applied their normal margins, it would be as profitable as any other Apple product
- but I can't see Apple doing it now
- they're having too much success, and fun, pursuing other market & product types....
The problem is that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy type scenario for Apple. Look at their notebooks, they are extremely similar to what other manufacturers offer. They have the same general shape, size, weight, screen - keyboard - trackpad placement, except that they use premium materials.
Take a look at their desktops, the only one that is even remotely similar to other manufacturers is the Mac Pro. The Mac Mini and iMac are like nothing else, are behind on specs, and are a much tougher sale than any of the Apple notebooks. Other manufacturers have a more equal mix of desktop to notebook sales because people want to buy what they offer.
Apple makes no effort in the desktop market and then points to the low numbers to justify their not making an effort there.
So what would be everybody else's excuse? PC desktop sales have been dropping steadily across the board, with laptops having outpaced them as of last year.
I haven't seen numbers for the most recent quarter, but I would have to assume the rise of the netbook has only accelerated that trend.
So what would be everybody else's excuse? PC desktop sales have been dropping steadily across the board, with laptops having outpaced them as of last year.
I haven't seen numbers for the most recent quarter, but I would have to assume the rise of the netbook has only accelerated that trend.
So Apple sold nearly 3x as many Laptops as Desktops
(74% Laptops)
- and I think the general market has only recently passed the 50:50 mark
- so there is still a potential for Apple to sell nearly 3x the Desktop numbers (700K -> 2000K approx)
- ok, there would be cannibalization, and the market would take time to adopt the desktops
- but that's the scale of the opportunity they are not addressing....
The Hackintoshes are really getting into Apple's desktop business. We just upgraded all six desktop computers in our house, we replaced the iMacs, with Hackintoshes. There is no way that I wanted to buy more notebooks on a stand (iMac) or notebooks in a lunchbox (Mac Mini), and the Mac Pros are overkill.
Snow Leopard forced us away from an Apple built Mac. The iMacs we had were not OpenCL ready and could not be upgraded. Apple has a hole in their desktop line you can drive a truck through and no matter how the apologists here try to spin it the numbers don't lie!
I doubt hackintoshes are having much of an effect. A few people who are willing to make do with the limitations will do that.
I think people are waiting for the rumored new models. This always happens when new models are about to come out, or are rumored to. This rumor has been out for about two months, half the quarter.
If they do come out soon, we'll see a surge in sales as we always do with new models. And if the rumors are correct, and they're somewhat cheaper, that will seal the deal.
The problem is that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy type scenario for Apple. Look at their notebooks, they are extremely similar to what other manufacturers offer. They have the same general shape, size, weight, screen - keyboard - trackpad placement, except that they use premium materials.
Take a look at their desktops, the only one that is even remotely similar to other manufacturers is the Mac Pro. The Mac Mini and iMac are like nothing else, are behind on specs, and are a much tougher sale than any of the Apple notebooks. Other manufacturers have a more equal mix of desktop to notebook sales because people want to buy what they offer.
Apple makes no effort in the desktop market and then points to the low numbers to justify their not making an effort there.
Every other company now has AIO's. Apple isn't the only one. And except for one or two junky models, they are all expensive when compared to towers.
It's interesting to note that it's business that wants a headless machine that costs $1,000 sans monitor. But consumer sales are now almost twice that of business and government sales.
That's quite a turnabout, as it used to be the other way around.
Of course, most of those consumer sales average about $600 for computer and monitor, sometimes with a throwaway printer added in.
When talking about laptop sales, they are nudging lower than $500, thanks to all the netbooks out there.
Does Apple want that space? I don't think so. If they got even close, I would get nervous. I don't want to see them become another Dell or Acer.
The Hackintoshes are really getting into Apple's desktop business.
Yeah, because the average consumer is using hackintoshes!
Wake up. Hackintoshes are an internet, Apple-fansite, tinker-toy geek phenomenom that has about as much representation in the larger market as the same minority that plays around with it and posts about it on AI: little to none.
Lack of demand for desktops are "really eating into Apple's desktop business."
Can we all think outside the AI bubble for just a little while?
I guess I should say it again. People are expecting updates to the iMac, Mini, and even the Macbook lines soon.
We all know what happens to sales when that occurs. The Macbook likely did pretty well because in the call, Apple said that sales to schools were up by 12%, and what do they buy?
So Apple sold nearly 3x as many Laptops as Desktops
(74% Laptops)
- and I think the general market has only recently passed the 50:50 mark
- so there is still a potential for Apple to sell nearly 3x the Desktop numbers (700K -> 2000K approx)
- ok, there would be cannibalization, and the market would take time to adopt the desktops
- but that's the scale of the opportunity they are not addressing....
The 50/50 marked was passed late last year. Given the accelerating trend, and the explosion of netbooks, I think it's conservative to figure 60/40 laptops at this point.
So if Apple were to mirror the PC market in general, they might be able to increase their desktop sales a bit. But, we have no way of knowing if those would be new sales or just a shift from the laptops they're already selling, which doesn't do them any good.
Again, I think it's reasonably conservative to imagine that not all additional desktop sales would add to Apple's bottom line, and a certain percentage would simply be Apple customers that opted for an iMac or Mini over a MacBook or MacBook Pro.
Given all that, it doesn't seem like a lot of attention on growing their desktop lineup is warranted. Their mix skews more towards laptops than the general PC industry, but not outlandishly so, and that's against a market with loads of bargain basement beige boxes to choose from. And that's within a market that's clearly trending away from desktops altogether.
A strange remark, which suggests that you don't understand after hours trading. AAPL will almost certainly open higher tomorrow, probably in the neighborhood of 200 if I had to guess, but where it closes nobody knows. AAPL has actually traded above 200 before, but it has never closed above 200. Considering how much I have riding on this, I certainly hope it does -- but after all the ups and downs I've experienced as an investor, I know better than to count on it or to predict anything. I've also learned that people who don't put their money where their mouth is, are usually all mouth.
I am sorry you feel the need to be less than pleasant. My original post was made in good humor as was the second. I spent many years working for Apple and my investment is considerable, including my entire IRA which I moved to Apple when it was at $37. I stand by my original point made a few weeks back that I believe AAPL would pass its highest value point soon, not in two years. I base this on absolutely nothing but faith .
I am sorry you feel the need to be less than pleasant. My original post was made in good humor as was the second. I spent many years working for Apple and my investment is considerable, including my entire IRA which I moved to Apple when it was at $37. I stand by my original point made a few weeks back that I believe AAPL would pass its highest value point soon, not in two years. I base this on absolutely nothing but faith .
I took your post, and the followup, as unpleasant. Sorry, but the "humor" didn't read at all. Your original point also doesn't stand, since it was December 2007 when AAPL last closed just short of 200. By my calendar, that's only two months shy of two years ago. I never said more than that about AAPL taking two years to get back to where it was, which is a fact, not a prediction. Also, your remark about my not "accepting after hours trading" does suggest that you don't understand what it is. Or was that a joke too? Ha. Ha.
I get the faith part, but I can't afford faith in my investing. You might also notice that I never predict the direction of the market and don't pretend to give anyone advice on what to buy and when. Maybe more people should adopt that policy, unless they're willing to offer a money-back guarantee.
Quite a few other companies aren't close to their previous highs.
but this time, it's more sustainable. Previously, the P/E was much higher. Sales and profits have caught up with the stock price.
If it goes to "traditional" P/E's again, we'll see $400 soon.
I hope that doesn't happen, as I'd like to see a saner ratio..
True, I haven't got anything in my portfolio that has recovered nearly as well as AAPL. But I'm going to stick by my policy and not try to predict future price. So much can happen between now and a year from now. I never heard anyone predict that AAPL would fall by 60% in just a few months (even as profits grew), but it sure as hell happened. The current ratio may be more backed up by dollars than it was before, but this is not necessarily a sign of sanity. In so many ways, the stock market is not a rational place. That's one thing I've learned the hard way.
Take a look at their desktops, the only one that is even remotely similar to other manufacturers is the Mac Pro. The Mac Mini and iMac are like nothing else, are behind on specs, and are a much tougher sale than any of the Apple notebooks. Other manufacturers have a more equal mix of desktop to notebook sales because people want to buy what they offer.
Apple makes no effort in the desktop market and then points to the low numbers to justify their not making an effort there.
Have to disagree. This phenomenon is hardly limited to Apple. Desktops have been shrinking as a %age of sales of PC's for years and will pass unit leadership to portables next year. The domestic server market growth is anemic. Laptop/notebook and world server are the only real growth areas. Desktops aren't going away, but they're not where a focused growth company that recently removed "computer" from its name is going.....
Worldwide Mobile PC Sales (#M) \t 2.4 \t10.0 \t27.9 \t80.0 \t96.1 \t204.8
The desktop PC segment will remain the largest PC segment through 2010. Both PC servers and mobile PCs are taking market share from the desktop PC segment. Mobile PCs include all laptop, notebook and other mobile PCs. The emerging tablet PCs and wearable PCs are also included in the mobile PC segment. PDAs and Smartphones are excluded. Worldwide mobile PC unit sales will top desktop PC sales in 2011 or possibly earlier.
True, I haven't got anything in my portfolio that has recovered nearly as well as AAPL. But I'm going to stick by my policy and not try to predict future price. So much can happen between now and a year from now. I never heard anyone predict that AAPL would fall by 60% in just a few months (even as profits grew), but it sure as hell happened. The current ratio may be more backed up by dollars than it was before, but this is not necessarily a sign of sanity. In so many ways, the stock market is not a rational place. That's one thing I've learned the hard way.
The market isn't totally irrational either, or what happens would be totally random,
I've done pretty well over the years in spotting trends in the one industry I know really well, and I don't stray too far from it.
Personally, the most impressive part of the earnings was the Mac side of the story, where growth is outpacing the rest of the market handily 17% to 2%.
Plus, when you understand how much of that growth is coming from Portables, you understand why the Tablet is inevitable, something that I blogged about in:
The Right Stuff: Analysis of Apple?s Q4 Earnings Call
Comments
If Apple was going to bring out the MMMMT (mythical mid-range Mac mini-tower) they would have done so years ago when the market would have been bigger. I've watched the runes all that time and the reasoning is clear. Consider the article's figures:
On its current roll Apple has done nothing for years but target the fastest-growing, most fluid, largest segments of markets it covets (or in the case of Apple TV one which is still waiting to become one). The mid-range AC-tethered market - however appealing to so many of the hard corps here - hardly qualifies.
I and others have repeatedly noted that the only spur that would lead Apple to release such a machine at this stage - in a shrinking, commodity area with fierce margin pressures - would be if they decided to make a serious push in one or more of the business markets - markets which after decades have never been more than an afterthought in their strategic directions - and the studies indicated it could serve both enough administrative assistants/clerks/etc. and gearheads to justify the R&D, inventory, SKU proliferation, support, etc.
And I still don't see it, even though I still want one. So I suggest getting real on this continuing non-saga. Apple hears you, still appreciate your following and proselytizing, etc., they just can't count enough of you to justify such a nice present in your Christmas stocking, when they're so focused on mining richer ore.
The problem is that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy type scenario for Apple. Look at their notebooks, they are extremely similar to what other manufacturers offer. They have the same general shape, size, weight, screen - keyboard - trackpad placement, except that they use premium materials.
Take a look at their desktops, the only one that is even remotely similar to other manufacturers is the Mac Pro. The Mac Mini and iMac are like nothing else, are behind on specs, and are a much tougher sale than any of the Apple notebooks. Other manufacturers have a more equal mix of desktop to notebook sales because people want to buy what they offer.
Apple makes no effort in the desktop market and then points to the low numbers to justify their not making an effort there.
The problem is that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy type scenario for Apple. Look at their notebooks, they are extremely similar to what other manufacturers offer. They have the same general shape, size, weight, screen - keyboard - trackpad placement, except that they use premium materials.
Take a look at their desktops, the only one that is even remotely similar to other manufacturers is the Mac Pro. The Mac Mini and iMac are like nothing else, are behind on specs, and are a much tougher sale than any of the Apple notebooks. Other manufacturers have a more equal mix of desktop to notebook sales because people want to buy what they offer.
Apple makes no effort in the desktop market and then points to the low numbers to justify their not making an effort there.
I think Apple (or SJ) is just philosophically opposed to the normal desktops
- I agree with you that a normal Mid-range desktop would be a good seller, and not really need much R & D
- and if Apple applied their normal margins, it would be as profitable as any other Apple product
- but I can't see Apple doing it now
- they're having too much success, and fun, pursuing other market & product types....
The problem is that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy type scenario for Apple. Look at their notebooks, they are extremely similar to what other manufacturers offer. They have the same general shape, size, weight, screen - keyboard - trackpad placement, except that they use premium materials.
Take a look at their desktops, the only one that is even remotely similar to other manufacturers is the Mac Pro. The Mac Mini and iMac are like nothing else, are behind on specs, and are a much tougher sale than any of the Apple notebooks. Other manufacturers have a more equal mix of desktop to notebook sales because people want to buy what they offer.
Apple makes no effort in the desktop market and then points to the low numbers to justify their not making an effort there.
So what would be everybody else's excuse? PC desktop sales have been dropping steadily across the board, with laptops having outpaced them as of last year.
I haven't seen numbers for the most recent quarter, but I would have to assume the rise of the netbook has only accelerated that trend.
http://www.cultofmac.com/morgan-stan...-estimate/5788
So what would be everybody else's excuse? PC desktop sales have been dropping steadily across the board, with laptops having outpaced them as of last year.
I haven't seen numbers for the most recent quarter, but I would have to assume the rise of the netbook has only accelerated that trend.
So Apple sold nearly 3x as many Laptops as Desktops
(74% Laptops)
- and I think the general market has only recently passed the 50:50 mark
- so there is still a potential for Apple to sell nearly 3x the Desktop numbers (700K -> 2000K approx)
- ok, there would be cannibalization, and the market would take time to adopt the desktops
- but that's the scale of the opportunity they are not addressing....
The Hackintoshes are really getting into Apple's desktop business. We just upgraded all six desktop computers in our house, we replaced the iMacs, with Hackintoshes. There is no way that I wanted to buy more notebooks on a stand (iMac) or notebooks in a lunchbox (Mac Mini), and the Mac Pros are overkill.
Snow Leopard forced us away from an Apple built Mac. The iMacs we had were not OpenCL ready and could not be upgraded. Apple has a hole in their desktop line you can drive a truck through and no matter how the apologists here try to spin it the numbers don't lie!
I doubt hackintoshes are having much of an effect. A few people who are willing to make do with the limitations will do that.
I think people are waiting for the rumored new models. This always happens when new models are about to come out, or are rumored to. This rumor has been out for about two months, half the quarter.
If they do come out soon, we'll see a surge in sales as we always do with new models. And if the rumors are correct, and they're somewhat cheaper, that will seal the deal.
What's to "gloat" about if it's true? The previous high for AAPL was 199.83 on December 28, 2007.
Quite a few other companies aren't close to their previous highs.
but this time, it's more sustainable. Previously, the P/E was much higher. Sales and profits have caught up with the stock price.
If it goes to "traditional" P/E's again, we'll see $400 soon.
I hope that doesn't happen, as I'd like to see a saner ratio..
The problem is that it is a self-fulfilling prophecy type scenario for Apple. Look at their notebooks, they are extremely similar to what other manufacturers offer. They have the same general shape, size, weight, screen - keyboard - trackpad placement, except that they use premium materials.
Take a look at their desktops, the only one that is even remotely similar to other manufacturers is the Mac Pro. The Mac Mini and iMac are like nothing else, are behind on specs, and are a much tougher sale than any of the Apple notebooks. Other manufacturers have a more equal mix of desktop to notebook sales because people want to buy what they offer.
Apple makes no effort in the desktop market and then points to the low numbers to justify their not making an effort there.
Every other company now has AIO's. Apple isn't the only one. And except for one or two junky models, they are all expensive when compared to towers.
It's interesting to note that it's business that wants a headless machine that costs $1,000 sans monitor. But consumer sales are now almost twice that of business and government sales.
That's quite a turnabout, as it used to be the other way around.
Of course, most of those consumer sales average about $600 for computer and monitor, sometimes with a throwaway printer added in.
When talking about laptop sales, they are nudging lower than $500, thanks to all the netbooks out there.
Does Apple want that space? I don't think so. If they got even close, I would get nervous. I don't want to see them become another Dell or Acer.
Unfortunately, the overall market is starting to go loco again which might pose longer term risks.
Apple makes no effort in the desktop market and then points to the low numbers to justify their not making an effort there.
Those lower numbers are there because no one is really able to sell desktops in this market. The future is in noebooks and portables.
The old "desktop" paradigm is fading. At least Apple's AIOs are a good take on them.
The Hackintoshes are really getting into Apple's desktop business.
Yeah, because the average consumer is using hackintoshes!
Wake up. Hackintoshes are an internet, Apple-fansite, tinker-toy geek phenomenom that has about as much representation in the larger market as the same minority that plays around with it and posts about it on AI: little to none.
Lack of demand for desktops are "really eating into Apple's desktop business."
Can we all think outside the AI bubble for just a little while?
We all know what happens to sales when that occurs. The Macbook likely did pretty well because in the call, Apple said that sales to schools were up by 12%, and what do they buy?
Otherwise...
So Apple sold nearly 3x as many Laptops as Desktops
(74% Laptops)
- and I think the general market has only recently passed the 50:50 mark
- so there is still a potential for Apple to sell nearly 3x the Desktop numbers (700K -> 2000K approx)
- ok, there would be cannibalization, and the market would take time to adopt the desktops
- but that's the scale of the opportunity they are not addressing....
The 50/50 marked was passed late last year. Given the accelerating trend, and the explosion of netbooks, I think it's conservative to figure 60/40 laptops at this point.
So if Apple were to mirror the PC market in general, they might be able to increase their desktop sales a bit. But, we have no way of knowing if those would be new sales or just a shift from the laptops they're already selling, which doesn't do them any good.
Again, I think it's reasonably conservative to imagine that not all additional desktop sales would add to Apple's bottom line, and a certain percentage would simply be Apple customers that opted for an iMac or Mini over a MacBook or MacBook Pro.
Given all that, it doesn't seem like a lot of attention on growing their desktop lineup is warranted. Their mix skews more towards laptops than the general PC industry, but not outlandishly so, and that's against a market with loads of bargain basement beige boxes to choose from. And that's within a market that's clearly trending away from desktops altogether.
A strange remark, which suggests that you don't understand after hours trading. AAPL will almost certainly open higher tomorrow, probably in the neighborhood of 200 if I had to guess, but where it closes nobody knows. AAPL has actually traded above 200 before, but it has never closed above 200. Considering how much I have riding on this, I certainly hope it does -- but after all the ups and downs I've experienced as an investor, I know better than to count on it or to predict anything. I've also learned that people who don't put their money where their mouth is, are usually all mouth.
I am sorry you feel the need to be less than pleasant. My original post was made in good humor as was the second. I spent many years working for Apple and my investment is considerable, including my entire IRA which I moved to Apple when it was at $37. I stand by my original point made a few weeks back that I believe AAPL would pass its highest value point soon, not in two years. I base this on absolutely nothing but faith
I am sorry you feel the need to be less than pleasant. My original post was made in good humor as was the second. I spent many years working for Apple and my investment is considerable, including my entire IRA which I moved to Apple when it was at $37. I stand by my original point made a few weeks back that I believe AAPL would pass its highest value point soon, not in two years. I base this on absolutely nothing but faith
I took your post, and the followup, as unpleasant. Sorry, but the "humor" didn't read at all. Your original point also doesn't stand, since it was December 2007 when AAPL last closed just short of 200. By my calendar, that's only two months shy of two years ago. I never said more than that about AAPL taking two years to get back to where it was, which is a fact, not a prediction. Also, your remark about my not "accepting after hours trading" does suggest that you don't understand what it is. Or was that a joke too? Ha. Ha.
I get the faith part, but I can't afford faith in my investing. You might also notice that I never predict the direction of the market and don't pretend to give anyone advice on what to buy and when. Maybe more people should adopt that policy, unless they're willing to offer a money-back guarantee.
Quite a few other companies aren't close to their previous highs.
but this time, it's more sustainable. Previously, the P/E was much higher. Sales and profits have caught up with the stock price.
If it goes to "traditional" P/E's again, we'll see $400 soon.
I hope that doesn't happen, as I'd like to see a saner ratio..
True, I haven't got anything in my portfolio that has recovered nearly as well as AAPL. But I'm going to stick by my policy and not try to predict future price. So much can happen between now and a year from now. I never heard anyone predict that AAPL would fall by 60% in just a few months (even as profits grew), but it sure as hell happened. The current ratio may be more backed up by dollars than it was before, but this is not necessarily a sign of sanity. In so many ways, the stock market is not a rational place. That's one thing I've learned the hard way.
Take a look at their desktops, the only one that is even remotely similar to other manufacturers is the Mac Pro. The Mac Mini and iMac are like nothing else, are behind on specs, and are a much tougher sale than any of the Apple notebooks. Other manufacturers have a more equal mix of desktop to notebook sales because people want to buy what they offer.
Apple makes no effort in the desktop market and then points to the low numbers to justify their not making an effort there.
Have to disagree. This phenomenon is hardly limited to Apple. Desktops have been shrinking as a %age of sales of PC's for years and will pass unit leadership to portables next year. The domestic server market growth is anemic. Laptop/notebook and world server are the only real growth areas. Desktops aren't going away, but they're not where a focused growth company that recently removed "computer" from its name is going.....
From: eTForecasts - Worldwide PC Forecast
Note: I tried to get the figures to line up properly but the forum editor and what it displays seem to have different ideas about that. Sorry.
Table 1.2 U.S. and Worldwide PC Market Segments
Unit Sales \t 1990 \t1995 \t2000 \t2006 \t2007 \t2013
U.S. PC Server Sales (#M) \t 0.04 \t0.51 \t2.5 \t 4.0 \t 4.2 \t 5.3
U.S. Desktop PC Sales (#M) \t 8.4 \t16.8 \t33.1 \t36.6 \t35.7 \t26.4
U.S. Mobile PC Sales (#M) \t 1.1 4.1 \t10.4 \t26.5 \t30.1 \t52.5
Worldwide PC Server Sales (#M) \t0.06 \t0.94 \t5.5 \t 12.1 \t13.6 \t20.3
Worldwide Desktop PC Sales (#M) \t21.7 \t47.1 \t96.2 \t140.5 \t149.2 \t143.3
Worldwide Mobile PC Sales (#M) \t 2.4 \t10.0 \t27.9 \t80.0 \t96.1 \t204.8
The desktop PC segment will remain the largest PC segment through 2010. Both PC servers and mobile PCs are taking market share from the desktop PC segment. Mobile PCs include all laptop, notebook and other mobile PCs. The emerging tablet PCs and wearable PCs are also included in the mobile PC segment. PDAs and Smartphones are excluded. Worldwide mobile PC unit sales will top desktop PC sales in 2011 or possibly earlier.
True, I haven't got anything in my portfolio that has recovered nearly as well as AAPL. But I'm going to stick by my policy and not try to predict future price. So much can happen between now and a year from now. I never heard anyone predict that AAPL would fall by 60% in just a few months (even as profits grew), but it sure as hell happened. The current ratio may be more backed up by dollars than it was before, but this is not necessarily a sign of sanity. In so many ways, the stock market is not a rational place. That's one thing I've learned the hard way.
The market isn't totally irrational either, or what happens would be totally random,
I've done pretty well over the years in spotting trends in the one industry I know really well, and I don't stray too far from it.
Plus, when you understand how much of that growth is coming from Portables, you understand why the Tablet is inevitable, something that I blogged about in:
The Right Stuff: Analysis of Apple?s Q4 Earnings Call
http://bit.ly/RJAPA
Check it out, if interested.
Mark