Canalys Q3 2009: iPhone, RIM taking over smartphone market

24

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 64
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    So what --- he was talking about $600 iphone with a 2 year contract that is simlocked with revenue sharing.



    Circumstances change.



    Apple bulls like Munster saying 45 million iphones in 2009 --- he is a genius. Apple bears saying 25 million in 2009 --- apple fanbois with pitchforks chanting death threats. You know what? Munster lowered his estimates back down to 25 million iphones a few months ago.



    I rather prefer these people be realistic.



    He later stated that Apple needs to licensed the OS if they want to get marketshare. I?m sure that in his mind that had more to do with it. The iPhone costs $100 more retail for the highest end, but I get your point on the short lived profit-sharing model. I wish they wouldn?t have dropped it; another great consumer-focused idea bites the dust.
  • Reply 22 of 64
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by -AG- View Post


    If you are THAT pissed over the AT&T service why not Jailbreak your phone and stick it on any carrier you damn well want?



    Or quite AT&T within the first 30 days per the agreement. I tested the crap out of my iPhone when I went to AT&T after vowing never to go back to Cingular. Made sure this was going to be a service provider I could live with. I guess if people did that, then they?d have one less thing to bitch about? and we can?t have that, now can we.
  • Reply 23 of 64
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mr Underhill View Post


    Well it should do well considering the amount of hardware support it will receive. The Symbian figures should be proof of that.



    We need another year on that. It's too early to tell. Some good phones are now coming out, but what the popularity will be is still not known.
  • Reply 24 of 64
    richlrichl Posts: 2,213member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Android has over 10k apps, a maturing SDK, OS and user-base. It?s also free, mostly open and modern. The Ovi store looks like a failure and Symbian is too legacy to compete well with the higher-end smartphones.



    What makes the Ovi Store look like a failure? Have Nokia released any numbers yet? Nokia don't tend to shout out about successes in the same way that American companies do. It's hard to say whether it's a success or failure, unless I've missed something.



    I also don't understand many people on the Internet describe Symbian as "too legacy". Let's not forget that the kernel in iPhone OS and Android are far older. The application and UI situation is pretty appalling at the moment but the replacement coming in Symbian^4, Qt, is thoroughly modern. The OS is also free and open.



    Nokia's S40 is still going strong despite years of people saying that it's dead. Symbian won't be going anywhere for a long time.
  • Reply 25 of 64
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    So what --- he was talking about $600 iphone with a 2 year contract that is simlocked with revenue sharing.



    Circumstances change.



    Apple bulls like Munster saying 45 million iphones in 2009 --- he is a genius. Apple bears saying 25 million in 2009 --- apple fanbois with pitchforks chanting death threats. You know what? Munster lowered his estimates back down to 25 million iphones a few months ago.



    I rather prefer these people be realistic.



    The iPhone at $600 sold very well. At lower prices, it sold even better. either way, it was a clear success.
  • Reply 26 of 64
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    So what --- he was talking about $600 iphone with a 2 year contract that is simlocked with revenue sharing.



    Circumstances change.



    Apple bulls like Munster saying 45 million iphones in 2009 --- he is a genius. Apple bears saying 25 million in 2009 --- apple fanbois with pitchforks chanting death threats. You know what? Munster lowered his estimates back down to 25 million iphones a few months ago.



    I rather prefer these people be realistic.



    If we didn't have a major recession, a lot of things would have sold much better. Apple would have sold 25% more computers this year. Who knows how many phones might have been sold, though I had thought 35 million for 2009 would have been possible.
  • Reply 27 of 64
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Android has over 10k apps, a maturing SDK, OS and user-base. It?s also free, mostly open and modern. The Ovi store looks like a failure and Symbian is too legacy to compete well with the higher-end smartphones.



    I think Android-based devices will gain in popularity with v2.0 as it picks up the lower-end and mid-range of that market for all vendors and higher-end for non-AT&T customers in the US, while Apple cleans up the upper end of the consumer devices.



    I wonder if Nokia?s best chance to save itself from falling marketshare and, more importantly, profit is to buy Palm or license WebOS. It?s a solid OS with room to grow, but Palm is fraking it up in many way. One is their very poor idea of an SDK.



    RiM will still dominate as they have a very solid product, but they keep going cheaper and cheaper with the handsets while the need for BES and services, which is the bulk of their revenue, keeps falling with so many mobile OSes licensing ActiveSync. They need a new plan if they want to maintain their corporate dominance in the foreseeable. If the iPhone and Android fix some glaring corporate-related usage problems it?ll be a fast fall for BBs.



    I'm convinced that the market is too difficult to predict right now.



    There will be a shakeout to be sure, but exactly who will be left at the top three or four positions is difficult to see. We can see three, but the forth is a question.
  • Reply 28 of 64
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RichL View Post


    What makes the Ovi Store look like a failure? Have Nokia released any numbers yet? Nokia don't tend to shout out about successes in the same way that American companies do. It's hard to say whether it's a success or failure, unless I've missed something.



    I also don't understand many people on the Internet describe Symbian as "too legacy". Let's not forget that the kernel in iPhone OS and Android are far older. The application and UI situation is pretty appalling at the moment but the replacement coming in Symbian^4, Qt, is thoroughly modern. The OS is also free and open.



    Nokia's S40 is still going strong despite years of people saying that it's dead. Symbian won't be going anywhere for a long time.



    It isn't that it's legacy. It's that the OS wasn't designed for a smartphone. It's a realtime OS, as most phone OS's are. But it's a simple OS that has had feature after feature piled on. It wasn't written for touch, It wasn't written for capacitive screens. It wasn't written for multitouch. It wasn't written for 3D graphics etc.



    The OS is weighted down by all this bolted on stuff, and is creaky and slow because of it. It also isn't reliable anymore. That's why Nokia is backing Meamo. I said, two years ago, that Nokia would leave Symbian for something else. They had no choice.
  • Reply 29 of 64
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RichL View Post


    What makes the Ovi Store look like a failure? Have Nokia released any numbers yet? Nokia don't tend to shout out about successes in the same way that American companies do. It's hard to say whether it's a success or failure, unless I've missed something.



    I also don't understand many people on the Internet describe Symbian as "too legacy". Let's not forget that the kernel in iPhone OS and Android are far older. The application and UI situation is pretty appalling at the moment but the replacement coming in Symbian^4, Qt, is thoroughly modern. The OS is also free and open.



    Nokia's S40 is still going strong despite years of people saying that it's dead. Symbian won't be going anywhere for a long time.



    I got my info from reading reviews and getting a first hand account of the store from a Nokia fan who I thought would have had plenty of nice things to say about it. I don’t recall his saying even one positive remark about it. Note, I’m not referring at all to the dead-in-the-water initial start of the store due to overwhelming network access.



    iPhone OS might be based off much older code, but it’s modern. Is WebOS old too because it’s based on HTML? Symbian and other mobile OSes were initially designed for much slower and weaker hardware. They have inherent limitations because of this which prevent them from evolving as quickly and effectively as others. Revamping it to take advantage of new technologies may prove to be a waste of time and money. It might be better for them to start with a new OS, like Palm did when they went with WebOS and like Apple did when they went with NeXTSTEP.



    Apple’s work shrinking Mac OS X to iPhone OS X makes it very future-forward. Android is versatile, but there are many aspect of Android that will take years to compete with Apple’s core APIs. Does Nokia even have a good browser for Symbian yet? I know they have ported Fennec (mobile Firefox) to Maemo, but what about Symbian? This is a key feature in today’s smartphone market.
  • Reply 30 of 64
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by -AG- View Post


    If you are THAT pissed over the AT&T service why not Jailbreak your phone and stick it on any carrier you damn well want?



    Why is it that all you ever hear about it how bad AT&T are but never "...and since i jail broke my phone and switched to Verizon i've realised that i was nothing more than an AT&T hating sheep and ALL cell companies will have issues, Just there are more people on AT&T and Apple web forums that like to bitch about it".



    Seriously if you "loved" your iphone so much to trade it in for a Hero why wouldn't you have looked at the alternatives first. Or was it easier to jump ship first and then bitch about it later?



    Jailbreaking my phone allows me to use T-Mobile, not Verizon or Sprint. Unlike the rest of the modern world, we have 2 different phone standards here. If you were here in America, perhaps you would understand. AT&T works great for some people and that's fine. For me, I couldn't justify paying a $50/month premium for sub-par cell coverage where I live and work and travel. Sprint is far from perfect but in my situation they are much better than AT&T.



    Oh, I also still have the iPhone and use it daily, just not as a phone.
  • Reply 31 of 64
    brucepbrucep Posts: 2,823member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post


    "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance." Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, April 30, 2007











    The latest:



    http://www.macdailynews.com/index.ph...rldwide_smart/



    one scary dude running a multi BN dollar rudderless ship ,
  • Reply 32 of 64
    brucepbrucep Posts: 2,823member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    So what --- he was talking about $600 iphone with a 2 year contract that is simlocked with revenue sharing.



    Circumstances change.



    Apple bulls like Munster saying 45 million iphones in 2009 --- he is a genius. Apple bears saying 25 million in 2009 --- apple fanbois with pitchforks chanting death threats. You know what? Munster lowered his estimates back down to 25 million iphones a few months ago.



    I rather prefer these people be realistic.



    simlocked ??



    realistic??



    8 mill a 1/4 with 1/2 the market still sleeping



    simlocked !!!
  • Reply 33 of 64
    hill60hill60 Posts: 6,992member
    Actually, the first Symbian phone ever released:-



    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ericsson_R380



    had a touchscreen.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    It wasn't written for touch.



    The S60 browser is based on WebKit.



    At least Apple won't sue Nokia for using it...



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Does Nokia even have a good browser for Symbian yet? I know they have ported Fennec (mobile Firefox) to Maemo, but what about Symbian? This is a key feature in today’s smartphone market.



  • Reply 34 of 64
    alfiejralfiejr Posts: 1,524member
    the global smartphone market is a balkanized mess. all the different telcos and local preferences. no one product, company, or OS can possibly dominate it. so Nokia has nowhere to go but down as all the new competition comes on line. and most of Nokia's "smartphones" aren't really very smart - including them all in these stats is debatable.



    with a premium product and integrated/independent global consumer ecosystem (which no one else has) Apple will be able to command high prices and hold a solid chunk of the market. if the chart measured market share by hardware sale revenue instead of units sold (it should show that too to be done right), Apple would probably be in second place already. if the pseudo Nokia smartphones were not included, it could be in first.



    the one thing that is for sure is that Android 2.0 is about to truly "kill" Win Mobile 6.5. as soon as the new Android phones are available from all telcos WinMo sales will collapse. by February they will be giving them away for $25 plus a contract. just watch.
  • Reply 35 of 64
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hill60 View Post


    Actually, the first Symbian phone ever released:-



    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ericsson_R380



    had a touchscreen.



    That doesn't matter. You may have noticed that it used ver 5 of the OS.
  • Reply 36 of 64
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Alfiejr View Post


    the global smartphone market is a balkanized mess. all the different telcos and local preferences. no one product, company, or OS can possibly dominate it. so Nokia has nowhere to go but down as all the new competition comes on line. and most of Nokia's "smartphones" aren't really very smart - including them all in these stats is debatable.



    with a premium product and integrated/independent global consumer ecosystem (which no one else has) Apple will be able to command high prices and hold a solid chunk of the market. if the chart measured market share by hardware sale revenue instead of units sold (it should show that too to be done right), Apple would probably be in second place already. if the pseudo Nokia smartphones were not included, it could be in first.



    the one thing that is for sure is that Android 2.0 is about to truly "kill" Win Mobile 6.5. as soon as the new Android phones are available from all telcos WinMo sales will collapse. by February they will be giving them away for $25 plus a contract. just watch.



    You make a well reasoned argument, but there are some points I would disagree with. First of all, I think Nokia smartphones deserve to be in the mix. While the smartphone market has changed since the arrival of the iPhone, I don?t think they should be counted out. Perhaps, as you suggest, a smartphone market segment demarkation that includes certain hardware and/or OS software. For example, Cortex-A8, more than 128MB RAM, more than 8GB on-board NAND, and/or a browser than that can pass Acid2 test? <==Question mark as they were coming off the top of my head.



    I think we?ll see with smartphones what he saw with the PC and OS market into the 1980s: a dying off of mobile OSes in favour for newer, better ones that offer a failing vendor or one hitting a wall a chance to survive. I agree that Android is a likely candidate for that low to mid-end smartphones.



    I think WebOS is widlcard as it depends if Palm can make some good choices with a potentially decent mobile OS. Like getting a good SDK or licensing or selling their OS to another vendor. WinMo has no shot. There is very little benefit it has over other mobile OSes. Is ActiveX something companies worry about on the mobile front?



    For the first part of 2009?before the 3GS had barely got onto shelves?Apple is reported to have commanded 32% of global phone profits. That isn?t just the US or just smartphone sales, but all sales worldwide. Now take this with a grain of salt because I don?t know if they aren?t able to count certain markets, but it looks like the iPhone in less under 2 years on the market and with their 2nd device already have the number one position in operating profits and number three position in revenue, behind Nokia and Samsung. If true, I wonder what happens after the 3GS sales are accounted for?



  • Reply 37 of 64
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hill60 View Post


    The S60 browser is based on WebKit.



    It?s too bad do WebKit proud. I don?t know how old the WebKit or JavaScript engine they used is, but it?s bloody awful from every aspect. I don?t think they are even going to port Fennec to Symbian. Are they going to let it rot in simple phone hell?
  • Reply 38 of 64
    aizmovaizmov Posts: 989member
    Android will be big, it wont necessarily cut into Apple or RIM, but it'll sure eat up Symbian's and WinMo's share and that's a good thing.
  • Reply 39 of 64
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    You make a well reasoned argument, but there are some points I would disagree with. First of all, I think Nokia smartphones deserve to be in the mix. While the smartphone market has changed since the arrival of the iPhone, I don?t think they should be counted out. Perhaps, as you suggest, a smartphone market segment demarkation that includes certain hardware and/or OS software. For example, Cortex-A8, more than 128MB RAM, more than 8GB on-board NAND, and/or a browser than that can pass Acid2 test? <==Question mark as they were coming off the top of my head.



    I think we?ll see with smartphones what he saw with the PC and OS market into the 1980s: a dying off of mobile OSes in favour for newer, better ones that offer a failing vendor or one hitting a wall a chance to survive. I agree that Android is a likely candidate for that low to mid-end smartphones.



    I think WebOS is widlcard as it depends if Palm can make some good choices with a potentially decent mobile OS. Like getting a good SDK or licensing or selling their OS to another vendor. WinMo has no shot. There is very little benefit it has over other mobile OSes. Is ActiveX something companies worry about on the mobile front?



    For the first part of 2009?before the 3GS had barely got onto shelves?Apple is reported to have commanded 32% of global phone profits. That isn?t just the US or just smartphone sales, but all sales worldwide. Now take this with a grain of salt because I don?t know if they aren?t able to count certain markets, but it looks like the iPhone in less under 2 years on the market and with their 2nd device already have the number one position in operating profits and number three position in revenue, behind Nokia and Samsung. If true, I wonder what happens after the 3GS sales are accounted for?






    One question is, who is deciding which phones will be called smartphones?



    You might remember that when the iPhone first came out, Steve Jobs emphatically stated that it WASN'T a smartphone, though many were calling it one. I agreed with his statement, because of the lack of third party software, which seems to be one of the minimum specs for one.



    But even some "feature phones can download some games and other limited programs. So where exactly is the dividing line?



    Does the manufacture decide? Do reviewers? Do the rating services?



    WebOs, despite its good points, is dependent on Palm phones. Will anyone ever license it? Why would they, when a free OS is available. Several, actually, all based on some Linux distro. Palm phones don't seem to be exciting many people.
  • Reply 40 of 64
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Aizmov View Post


    Android will be big, it wont necessarily cut into Apple or RIM, but it'll sure eat up Symbian's and WinMo's share and that's a good thing.



    It will cut into everything. The question is, by how much?
Sign In or Register to comment.