Piper: Apple tablet no more than $700, launch timing irrelevant

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware edited January 2014
Whether Apple's tablet launches in early or late 2010 is irrelevant, but a sale price of more than $700 could significantly reduce its potential sales, a new report has predicted.



In a note issued to investors Thursday morning, analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said in a new report that Apple's long-rumored tablet was delayed until the second half of 2010 is "irrelevant" to the company's stock, as current Wall Street models do not reflect sales of the device.



"Expectations for actual units in 2010 are low," Munster wrote, "and investors' focus is more on whether the tablet is real and less on timing."



Piper Jaffray analysts met with component suppliers this summer, who suggested that the tablet would be launched in early 2010. That corresponds with AppleInsider's own sources, who said the hardware will arrive in the first quarter of 2010.



Munster, however, does not buy the claims also reported Thursday that a high-end tablet with an OLED screen would retail for $2,000. He believes that the strategy is to have the device fit between the $199 iPod touch and the $999 MacBook. Piper Jaffray has forecast that the tablet device will cost between $500 and $700.



"As a point of perspective, iSuppli has reported the bill of materials on the iPhone 3GS is $179," the report said. "Backing out the phone functionality, we believe the bill of materials is about $160. Assuming the tablet is 3x the size of the iPod touch implies a bill of materials for the tablet of around $480."



If the hardware were to launch on Sept. 1, 2010, the report projects about 650,000 sales in the calendar year. At an average price of $600, it would equate to about 1 percent of the company's total revenue.



Munster said that though Apple's expected margins for the device are unknown, he believes the hardware will be priced to compete with the growing netbook market, even if it means less revenue for the Mac maker.



The report reiterated the belief that the device will be akin to a larger iPod touch that will run a new version of the iPhone OS. Munster believes the hardware will run iPhone apps, as well as a "new category of larger apps."



Piper Jaffray has a price target of $277 for AAPL stock, with a model that does not include the potential introduction of the tablet. However, Munster has previously predicted that the device would debut in early 2010 and sell about 2 million units in its first year. At an estimated average price of $600, that would net the company an additional $1.2 billion in revenue.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 93
    These rumours are getting crazy.
  • Reply 2 of 93
    Please excuse mon indiscrétion, ladies & gentlemen...



    Why exactly is the launch time "irrelevant"???



    We, foreigners, do an effort remarquable to understand what actually articles say....
  • Reply 3 of 93
    The Taiwanese source that released the junk rumors about the delayed release and the pricing has a horrendous accuracy track record.
  • Reply 4 of 93
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ivan.rnn01 View Post


    Please excuse mon indiscrétion, ladies & gentlemen...



    Why exactly is the launch time "irrelevant"???



    We, foreigners, do an effort remarquable to understand what actually articles say....



    It means that the people who were going to buy it in the first year, would do so regardless of when it launched. This is as opposed to some devices, which are best launched in the latter 1/2 of the year (like consoles).
  • Reply 5 of 93
    hattighattig Posts: 830member
    "Assuming the tablet is 3x the size of the iPod touch implies a bill of materials for the tablet of around $480."



    An odd assumption to make.



    Miniaturisation adds cost. A tablet is "de-miniaturising" the iPod Touch.



    Sure, there will probably be a gig of RAM instead of 256MB (but might be cheaper per MB because it won't be on the SoC package), the CPU (probably still an ARM SoC) can run faster due to more room for cooling (and maybe using the PA Semi design), but shouldn't cost much more. The battery will get bigger, and probably scale in cost though. Storage could be flash memory, but might not have more capacity than the 32GB iPod Touch. The display probably scales in cost, especially if it is high resolution.



    If it is delayed, maybe that's because PA Semi is delayed, and maybe that's because they're trying to build their SoC on TSMC's awful 40nm process.
  • Reply 6 of 93
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dagamer34 View Post


    It means that the people who were going to buy it in the first year, would do so regardless of when it launched. This is as opposed to some devices, which are best launched in the latter 1/2 of the year (like consoles).



    Oh, thank you so much!!
  • Reply 7 of 93
    zoetmbzoetmb Posts: 2,469member
    Quote:

    At an estimated average price of $600, that would net the company an additional $1.2 billion in revenue.



    Not necessarily. People who bought the device might use that instead of a computer or instead of a Touch or iPhone. So there would be a certain amount of cannibalization.



    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ivan.rnn01

    Please excuse mon indiscrétion, ladies & gentlemen...



    Why exactly is the launch time "irrelevant"???



    We, foreigners, do an effort remarquable to understand what actually articles say....



    Quote:

    It means that the people who were going to buy it in the first year, would do so regardless of when it launched. This is as opposed to some devices, which are best launched in the latter 1/2 of the year (like consoles).



    I don't think that's what he meant. I think what he meant is that the Tablet is not yet factored into Apple's stock price. So if it launches later than expected, it won't negatively impact the stock.
  • Reply 8 of 93
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ivan.rnn01 View Post


    Please excuse mon indiscrétion, ladies & gentlemen...



    Why exactly is the launch time "irrelevant"???



    We, foreigners, do an effort remarquable to understand what actually articles say....



    I guess Piper didn't read the earlier thread abotu OLED screens...lol.
  • Reply 9 of 93
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    I don't believe it one bit. My 32 GB iPhone costs $700 for cying out loud! Is that a $700 subsidized price with a needed wireless contract? Then the price would be more like $1,100- It's not making sense.
  • Reply 10 of 93
    The box will probably miss a lot of things we usually connect with a portable, and we as buyers will also miss them, but not if the price is set low enough. But if it will have all a box like that need, well, then we can take may be more than 700.
  • Reply 11 of 93
    Ummm??

    I thank you all for your help anyway!
  • Reply 12 of 93
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post


    These rumours are getting crazy.



    actually this is the first rumor that doesn't sound totally insane. his math might be off a bit but at least he's making an effort to pay attention and think like Apple might (about it being something for the inbetween market)



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ivan.rnn01 View Post


    Please excuse mon indiscrétion, ladies & gentlemen...



    Why exactly is the launch time "irrelevant"???



    two reasons.



    1. as noted already, those that are going to buy will likely do so no matter what

    2. the launch time doesn't matter if the device isn't real. So we need a confirmation it is going to be released first. Piper deals with real devices. Even if they announce and it comes out 9 months later, that Apple is releasing such a device will send the stock value up. Especially as more and more official information comes out.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by zoetmb View Post


    Not necessarily. People who bought the device might use that instead of a computer or instead of a Touch or iPhone.



    this is true. but the signs are a 9-10 inch netbook, not a fully functioning computer. so consider the lack of sales on the laptops cause folks wanted a netbook. now they have their thing. and many of those folks could be switchers. so that factor could balance out against the lack of full computer sales. and getting more switchers is never a bad thing in Apple's eyes.
  • Reply 13 of 93
    gazoobeegazoobee Posts: 3,754member
    Typo alert!



    This:

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    ... but a sale price of more than $700 could significantly reduce its potential sales, a new report has predicted. ...



    Should be:

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    ... but a sale price of no more than $700 could significantly reduce its potential sales, a new report has predicted. ...



  • Reply 14 of 93
    It will probably have 3G, and will be carrier-subsidized, to get it to the $600-$700 price range.



    My guess is there will be a $1000 non-carrier version.
  • Reply 15 of 93
    gazoobeegazoobee Posts: 3,754member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ivan.rnn01 View Post


    Please excuse mon indiscrétion, ladies & gentlemen...



    Why exactly is the launch time "irrelevant"???



    We, foreigners, do an effort remarquable to understand what actually articles say....



    It's a poorly worded article like most of the articles on Apple Insider. Most are more like quickly written abbreviated notes. I'm not sure what (most of) the authors have against spending a few minutes on legibility, but it's always been this way.
  • Reply 16 of 93
    gqbgqb Posts: 1,934member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    It will probably have 3G, and will be carrier-subsidized, to get it to the $600-$700 price range.



    My guess is there will be a $1000 non-carrier version.



    Having an iPhone, there is no way in god's green earth that I would pop for another 3G contract with any carrier. In addition, I don't see this as a device that I use for my 24/7 connetivity. That's what my iPhone is for. Wifi on the device will be just fine, and I'll pocket the extra $1K in carrier profit, thank you. More than makes up for a few hundred dollars of unsubsidized price.
  • Reply 17 of 93
    Timing is irrelevant due to stock price alone, based on the buzz the market is obviously interested to a degree, especially if it works.



    But, why does everyone want to put this in the category of the iPhone? stating it will use the iPhone OS?



    Look back at the patents, and other activity, this may be a dockable device in the side of a iMac, which would push it to OSX, why did Apple pick this time to redo the underpinnings of the OS and make things more efficient and less resource intensive (read remove bloat)?



    If/when they release something, it will not be half-A**ed. They may have developed it already and have it running in the labs and be waiting for component prices to drop to the point that they can make the margin, or they could be looking at the 1st gen being LCD and 2nd gen is OLED. Or this is all vaporware and Apple loves the Media hype for a product they are not even making.



    I'm thinking that they have definitely developed something, and as usual the world is waiting for the shoe to drop.



    Love Apple or Hate Apple, the eyes of the tech world definitely are looking to see what new revolutionary thing they are going to do because the other tech companies aren't being revolutionary, they are being the dull non-newsworthy evolutionary.



    I wonder what the next device will be???
  • Reply 18 of 93
    OK, I thank everyone who helped me!



    It took me a lot of time to digest this:

    Quote:

    In a note issued to investors Thursday morning, analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said that a new report that Apple's long-rumored tablet was delayed until the second half of 2010 is "irrelevant" to the company's stock, as current Wall Street models do not reflect sales of the device.



    My question on launch time was in fact misleading. It's about timing, not time.



    So, the fellow actually says he's deduced the existence of that imaginary delay of the launch from sources being different from stock price observation...
  • Reply 19 of 93
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    It will probably have 3G, and will be carrier-subsidized, to get it to the $600-$700 price range.



    My guess is there will be a $1000 non-carrier version.



    So you agree and mimic with my prior post?
  • Reply 20 of 93
    We don't want no stinking tablet!





    Well there isn't enough people who have a need for such a device at this time.





    What Apple is trying to find, is a need for the tablet and trying to get cooperation of others that will make a the iTablet a success.



    A tablet is just a tablet without content or purpose.





    Apple tends to complicate things as well. Any device they seem to make always require attention, a learning curve, backups or updates or something else to focus your attention. It's like a low grade version of Windows.



    People just want a device that solves their problem and requires little or no attention.



    Also people are looking for things to do that makes them or saves them money, not much into things that cost them money.



    Although the recent jobs number is flat, this just means employers are keeping their staff for the holiday buying season where almost 50% of a years sales occurs, after that, come the new year, expect the unemployment rate to skyrocket.



    It's going to be bad, real bad.



    And it's going to stay that way until we vote out the liberal socialist sub-prime causing mess members of Congress who forced Freddie and Fannie in 2005 to get into the sub-prime market.



    I'm sorry, you just can't give a house to people who can't afford it on the backs of everyone else.



    The sub-prime mess started with California liberal companies and banks and reached into the Congress when it switched parties.



    Sorry about the rant, but if people are paying too much or underwater on their mortgages, they certainly don't have as much to spend on luxuries or new computer toys like a iTablet.



    When the government starts raising the property taxes, expect the rents to go up and tent cities to pop up like it is already happening in California.
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