'Complicated' Verizon iPhone deal said to be unlikely in 2010

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  • Reply 61 of 83
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    This is the same company that sells rainbow color ipods. Having a bunch of color ipods, all with a different SKU and inventory --- ain't going to be much of a problem.



    I addressed this already. Besides the differences being easily discernable by those with vision, even many who are colour blind, this is marketing technique for a relatively inexpensive product for a saturated market. The iPhone is not saturated, it's not relatively inexpensive and having different internal HW with pros and cons is not the same as having a colour to choose from. Please don't suggest that Apple offer a different colour for each carrier.



    Quote:

    The vast majority of the apps are games --- yet the biggest difference between the current 2 models (3G and 3GS) is the hardware accel 3D graphics. That is a lot of consumer confusion already as well.



    You say that even an expected year-over-year increase in basic HW like the CPU, RAM, and GPU has created consumer confusion yet your grande plan is to offer a parallel device that has considerably more confusing technological aspects to it than the obvious "each year the HW gets better and faster." That doesn't strike you as illogical?



    Quote:

    The biggest CDMA carriers are still in US, Canada, Japan and S Korea --- and these are not poor countries.



    Let' see we have ~30M on au/KDDI in Japan while all the other major players accounting for ~80M are on 3GSM. On tip of that au/KDDI is planning LTE right along with NTT DoCoMo. This will be complete long before Verizon. I know this because Tyler knows this.



    Then there is Kore. With CDMA as 2G across the board but only LG is supporting CDMA2000 for 3G while the others have 3GSM. LG only has ~8M subs. Not exactly a lot market.



    Finally, we have Canada. Oh, Canada! The iPhone is already on the largest network and the next two largest accounting for a mere 13M subs has HSPA and LTE in the works. that leaves ~1M subs left on a couple very small carriers. Again, not a problem. The only really market for a CDMA iPhone is the US and ee both know that seems unlikely, yet we both wish it would happen (though for very different reasons).



    Quote:

    The past phenomenal growth rate creates expectations that the growth will continue --- and that creates pressures on the Apple stock price. Just rumors about t-mobile USA getting the next iphone instead of Verizon --- caused a $5 drop in Apple share price.



    No, it didn't. If there has ever been an accuate use of the adage "not seeimg the forest for te trees" it would be people associating a drop in a stock price from a single piece of news thr few care about without looking at the entire market as a whole.
  • Reply 62 of 83
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I addressed this already. Besides the differences being easily discernable by those with vision, even many who are colour blind, this is marketing technique for a relatively inexpensive product for a saturated market. The iPhone is not saturated, it's not relatively inexpensive and having different internal HW with pros and cons is not the same as having a colour to choose from. Please don't suggest that Apple offer a different colour for each carrier.



    You say that even an expected year-over-year increase in basic HW like the CPU, RAM, and GPU has created consumer confusion yet your grande plan is to offer a parallel device that has considerably more confusing technological aspects to it than the obvious "each year the HW gets better and faster." That doesn't strike you as illogical?



    Let' see we have ~30M on au/KDDI in Japan while all the other major players accounting for ~80M are on 3GSM. On tip of that au/KDDI is planning LTE right along with NTT DoCoMo. This will be complete long before Verizon. I know this because Tyler knows this.



    Then there is Kore. With CDMA as 2G across the board but only LG is supporting CDMA2000 for 3G while the others have 3GSM. LG only has ~8M subs. Not exactly a lot market.



    Finally, we have Canada. Oh, Canada! The iPhone is already on the largest network and the next two largest accounting for a mere 13M subs has HSPA and LTE in the works. that leaves ~1M subs left on a couple very small carriers. Again, not a problem. The only really market for a CDMA iPhone is the US and ee both know that seems unlikely, yet we both wish it would happen (though for very different reasons).



    No, it didn't. If there has ever been an accuate use of the adage "not seeimg the forest for te trees" it would be people associating a drop in a stock price from a single piece of news thr few care about without looking at the entire market as a whole.



    I never claim that each carrier gets to sell a different colour iphone. I am saying that for Apple to enjoy a 50% gross profit margin on the iphone --- selling a different model would only drop that profit margin very slightly.



    I am saying that if I accept your theory ---- then consumers are already facing massive confusion about the different capabilities of the 2 iphone models that are being sold. Then Apple should have stop the selling of 3G iphone immediately and sell only the 3GS model.



    As I stated repeatedly in other threads, the majority of SK Telecom and KTF subscribers are still using ev-do phones. So if you look at Korea as a whole, more than 2/3 of their population is still on the ev-do network.



    This is how the market works --- you can a professional sports team with god awful financials, guess what? A bigger idiot will buy it from you at an even insane price in 5 years.
  • Reply 63 of 83
    junkiejunkie Posts: 122member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    There is no doubt that it would be profitable for Apple.



    Uh, ok. So let's just admit then that all that follows is not really a business justification....



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    There are some logistical issues with going with a CDMA phone. Besides needing to stock a separate device for Sprint, Verizon, and AT&T/T-Mobile in their stores for each capacity, they also would likely have to have some sort of rep from those companies to help activate the phones.



    Yawn. Really? A few more SKU's. Walk into a BestBuy sometime and look at the phones they stock. I kinda think Apple is up to the complexity of a few more devices. They can just have the logo of the carrier on the box. They can just carry the most popular version for the other carriers - 16 gb black? So 3 more SKU to triple the US addressable market.



    And not sure why they'd need any extra reps in the stores. You just tell them your carrier and they pull the right unit and its just a slightly different workflow, if that.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    On top of that, we have customer confusion to deal with when it comes different iPhones having different capabilities despite being mostly the same. Does Apple make them look different to make it obvious there are differences or go with the same case design. If you go with a different case design you have an issue with 3rd-party cases.



    Seriously, what are you talking about? Confusion over what? The only difference is that the CDMA phone would not be able to make calls and access data at the same time. This is not an issue for 99% of people and anyone who cares knows the issue. CDMA can't work overseas as well but everyone on Verizon knows their phones don't work abroad. Big deal.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Again, it would be profitable but that doesn?t seem like something Apple would do. If it?s not a simple streamlined process then it?s not something Apple seems to want to do. So the other option is the hybrid world-mode chip from Qualcomm, but even if Apple gets the excessive 5.7% per-unit of all revenue dropped from Qualcomm we have to consider the chip size and power consumption.



    Honestly, I think Apple just needs to grow up. So its not so simple and neat - it makes the product available to a ton more people. That matters. So don't have Jobs announce it. Just do it and get it in Verizon stores and the other carriers too, and we can move on from this issue.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Perhaps most importantly and oft overlooked is that the iPhone is growing at a phenomenal rate already. Supply has been constrained leaving some countries hurting well after the launch. The only problem at this time is that the iPhone on AT&T is so successful and so useful for data that it?s taxing their network excessively. Adding the 1700MHz Band and going with their Deutsche Telekom partner?s US company, T-Mobile, would help with that saturation issue while also avoiding all the logistical issues previous mentioned. It?s the only move that makes sense to me.



    T-Mobile seems like a pretty dinky network too. I don't think they could handle the iPhone that well either. Even Verizon will have trouble but at least then we'd have a fair playing field.
  • Reply 64 of 83
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    I never claim that each carrier gets to sell a different colour iphone. I am saying that for Apple to enjoy a 50% gross profit margin on the iphone --- selling a different model would only drop that profit margin very slightly.



    I am saying that if I accept your theory ---- then consumers are already facing massive confusion about the different capabilities of the 2 iphone models that are being sold. Then Apple should have stop the selling of 3G iphone immediately and sell only the 3GS model.



    As I stated repeatedly in other threads, the majority of SK Telecom and KTF subscribers are still using ev-do phones. So if you look at Korea as a whole, more than 2/3 of their population is still on the ev-do network.



    This is how the market works --- you can a professional sports team with god awful financials, guess what? A bigger idiot will buy it from you at an even insane price in 5 years.



    Verizon will never agree to the pricing model of AT&T so get that idea out of your head.
  • Reply 65 of 83
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post


    Verizon will never agree to the pricing model of AT&T so get that idea out of your head.



    Yes, that's the major issue between the two companies.



    All the othr issues --- like a CDMA variant, like an extra SKU,... --- very minor issues.
  • Reply 66 of 83
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    All the othr issues --- like a CDMA variant, like an extra SKU,... --- very minor issues.



    You are still reading logistical issues between carrying phones for disparate networks with pros and cons as simply a minor SKU issue? This is Apple weren?t talking about, not Best Buy. It?s not their MO to create a confusing situation for the customer. In fact, they go out of their way to may the choice as simple as possible, only adding more choices once market saturation dictates it for sustained growth. How many more examples do you need?
  • Reply 67 of 83
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    You are still reading logistical issues between carrying phones for disparate networks with pros and cons as simply a minor SKU issue? This is Apple weren?t talking about, not Best Buy. It?s not their MO to create a confusing situation for the customer. In fact, they go out of their way to may the choice as simple as possible, only adding more choices once market saturation dictates it for sustained growth. How many more examples do you need?



    They are minor issues when compared with the really big issue of how Apple and Verizon would divide the iphone revenue.



    It is not their MO --- means it's style over substance issue. If I take your view, then it is already a confusing situation where buying a 3G iphone would eliminate most of the cool iphone games with hardware 3D accel graphics requirements.
  • Reply 68 of 83
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    It is not their MO --- means it's style over substance issue.



    A business model done purely for style? That is a new one on me.
  • Reply 69 of 83
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    A business model done purely for style? That is a new one on me.



    Apple has been saying that Apple TV is a "hobby" for the last few years now. That's the ultimate style over substance business model, isn't it?
  • Reply 70 of 83
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    Apple has been saying that Apple TV is a "hobby" for the last few years now. That's the ultimate style over substance business model, isn't it?



    Huh? The AppleTV nor the word ?hobby? constitute business models. Besides that, the AppleTV is an unusual device for Apple. They previewed a prototype despite not having it ready for another 6 months and they clearly called it a hobby. For a company that is device to test the waters and likely presented not so much for the consumer but for big studios to see how consumer felt about it and to see that there was a secure method in which their content could be streamed.



    PS: Try to keep the topic on track otherwise we won?t be able to these fun debates anymore, and that would make a sad panda.
  • Reply 71 of 83
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    PS: Try to keep the topic on track otherwise we won?t be able to these fun debates anymore, and that would make a sad panda.



    Yes, let's get this topic on track.



    If you read the original analyst's report --- it said really nothing about the technical difficulty or the added SKU being really a problem with the Verizon iphone. If Apple sells a T-Mobile iphone, it's going to be an extra SKU because it needs a special 1700 MHz version. If Apple sells a Sprint iphone, it's going to be an extra SKU because it needs a CDMA version.
  • Reply 72 of 83
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    If Apple sells a T-Mobile iphone, it's going to be an extra SKU because it needs a special 1700 MHz version. If Apple sells a Sprint iphone, it's going to be an extra SKU because it needs a CDMA version.



    1) The reasons why Apple won’t sell a Sprint iPhone right away are mostly the same reasons why they won’t sell a Verizon iPhone, with Sprint having an extra measure of desperation to give Apple everything they want.



    2) WTF are you smoking! It’s a simple operating band that needs to be added and connected to the transciever. A frakin radio for the wireless chipset to access! Adding Operating IV (1700MHz) is a relatively simple task that requires nothing more than getting with T-Mobile USA on board (to make it’s worth their time) and adding it to the R&D of the 2010 iPhone. Not the complete overhaul that adding a CDMA iPhone would require or the completely different chipsets that a hybrid world-mode chip would require.



    The the next chips from Infineon allow for up to 5 bands. The iPhone currently uses only 3 bands: Operating Band I (2100 MHz); Operating Band II (1900MHz); Operating Band V (850MHz).
    PS: This was the last time I’m going out of my way to supply the same data over again on this topic. On top of that, thinking that an iPhone to work on T-Mobile USA means a completely new device means you are either spreading FUD or simply don’t much about 3GSM networks. Either way, i’m done.
  • Reply 73 of 83
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    2) WTF are you smoking! It?s a simple operating band that needs to be added and connected to the transciever. A frakin radio for the wireless chipset to access! Adding Operating IV (1700MHz) is a relatively simple task that requires nothing more than getting with T-Mobile USA on board (to make it?s worth their time) and adding it to the R&D of the 2010 iPhone. Not the complete overhaul that adding a CDMA iPhone would require or the completely different chipsets that a hybrid world-mode chip would require.



    EVERYTHING is RELATIVE, isn't it?



    Making a CDMA variant iphone is not as hard as going to the moon. It is not as hard as negotiation between Apple and Verizon on how to split the money --- which is the really hard issue.



    Hell, when Motorola changes the color of a cell phone --- they have to change the location of the cell phone antennas because different paint colors can affect RF receptions.



    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/29/te...1&pagewanted=2



    As I stated repeatedly, making a CDMA variant is a minor technical issue, a minor issue in cost increase, a minor issue in inventory management... --- the major issue is the revenue side. How are Verizon and Apple splitting the money?
  • Reply 74 of 83
    timontimon Posts: 152member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    1) The reasons why Apple won?t sell a Sprint iPhone right away are mostly the same reasons why they won?t sell a Verizon iPhone, with Sprint having an extra measure of desperation to give Apple everything they want.



    Not really. Verizon would be much more likely since there are multi-protocol chips that do GMS, CDMA and LTE, i.e., Qualcomm, but no one make a multi-protocol chip that does GMS, CDMA, LTE and WiMax.



    The WiMax is what will leave Sprint out in the cold because no one is going to build that chip. Why the hell Sprint decided to use WiMax is beyond me except that they tend to make stupid decisions. I can't see Apple doing a phone just for Sprint's WiMax network.
  • Reply 75 of 83
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Timon View Post


    Not really. Verizon would be much more likely since there are multi-protocol chips that do GMS, CDMA and LTE, i.e., Qualcomm, but no one make a multi-protocol chip that does GMS, CDMA, LTE and WiMax.



    The WiMax is what will leave Sprint out in the cold because no one is going to build that chip. Why the hell Sprint decided to use WiMax is beyond me except that they tend to make stupid decisions. I can't see Apple doing a phone just for Sprint's WiMax network.



    Neither WiMAX nor LTE are even worth considering for the next iPhone release.
  • Reply 76 of 83
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    You have to understand when Verizon is involved the seas will part and all obstacles can be over come to get them whatever they want. Within this logic adding CDMA hybrid chip is as easy as adding another UTMS band. But only because its for Verizon.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    WTF are you smoking! It?s a simple operating band that needs to be added and connected to the transciever. A frakin radio for the wireless chipset to access! Adding Operating IV (1700MHz) is a relatively simple task that requires nothing more than getting with T-Mobile USA on board (to make it?s worth their time) and adding it to the R&D of the 2010 iPhone. Not the complete overhaul that adding a CDMA iPhone would require or the completely different chipsets that a hybrid world-mode chip would require.



  • Reply 77 of 83
    tenobelltenobell Posts: 7,014member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    EVERYTHING is RELATIVE, isn't it?

    Hell, when Motorola changes the color of a cell phone --- they have to change the location of the cell phone antennas because different paint colors can affect RF receptions.



    You declare that everything is relative and then ignore the finer details of the reality of this situation.



    Motorola and Apple's approach to making phones is so different, its pretty much a useless exercise to make any comparison.



    Quote:

    As I stated repeatedly, making a CDMA variant is a minor technical issue, a minor issue in cost increase, a minor issue in inventory management... --- the major issue is the revenue side. How are Verizon and Apple splitting the money?



    Its true it would be a minor technical issue for companies who make many different types of phones. But Apple is not that company. Their mobile business is built around using the same phone for everyone, it would be a major change for Apple to divide their manufacturing lines.
  • Reply 78 of 83
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post


    You declare that everything is relative and then ignore the finer details of the reality of this situation.



    Motorola and Apple's approach to making phones is so different, its pretty much a useless exercise to make any comparison.



    Its true it would be a minor technical issue for companies who make many different types of phones. But Apple is not that company. Their mobile business is built around using the same phone for everyone, it would be a major change for Apple to divide their manufacturing lines.



    I don't ignore anything.



    Everything you point out --- means that Apple doesn't like to do certain things. It doesn't mean that Apple can't do those things because of major technical and financial issues.
  • Reply 79 of 83
    It would give them an immediate company-owned presence in the USA and they would be the largest operator in Germany. Their market cap is only $68 billion, so easily do-able. The could then move their iPhone and upcoming iTablet offerings to their own carrier. iPhone Nano for the less expensive offering. In other areas of the world they could become a Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) using the other carriers infrastructure.



    If Apple was able to pull this off and in the US create a first class 3G/4G network, imagine the clout the company would have in IPTv, wireless internet access, cell phone access. It would probably also scare the "you know what" out of Comcast behind the NBC deal as they would go overnight from having created a strong bargaining position for TV shows via iTunes to a situation where Apple/T-Mobile could broadcast directly to millions of devices, bypassing cable modems entirely.



    Just a thought.
  • Reply 80 of 83
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    The parent company of T-Mobile is DT, and DT's largest shareholder is the German government --- and it is not for sale.
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