Is it time to mention my widely disparaged prediction of 60M total iPhone sales by end 2009?
Many found the idea laughable 18 months ago...
Don't be too hard on them. Lack of vision is common. Just ask Michael Dell, Steve Ballmer, Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Ed Zander, Jim Balsillie, Ed Colligan, Roger McNamee . . .
That's where the Dell comparisons come in, though.
Nokia can continue to prop up its global share numbers by pouring an endless stream of inexpensive handsets into every market it can get a toe-hold in, but when another manufacturer works the price end better than you can (oh hi Bejing!) then things suddenly get hard. Like Dell, you have to start working the actually profitable end of the stick, but you may have dug yourself a hole in terms of brand perception.
The cell phone market is not the PC market.
For a phone to reach (most) markets, it still needs to pass conformance testing and the manufacturer needs to license the right technologies. Carriers trust Nokia to produce phones that aren't going to screw their network up and Nokia are the ones who own a lot of the parents around cell phones. Owning the patents means that they can make phones cheaper than new entrants to the market. Of course, if a market doesn't have strong IP laws then Nokia will have less of a competitive edge but so far China is the only notable exception.
And it's not like Nokia doesn't have it's own factories in China anyway.
For a phone to reach (most) markets, it still needs to pass conformance testing and the manufacturer needs to license the right technologies. Carriers trust Nokia to produce phones that aren't going to screw their network up and Nokia are the ones who own a lot of the parents around cell phones. Owning the patents means that they can make phones cheaper than new entrants to the market. Of course, if a market doesn't have strong IP laws then Nokia will have less of a competitive edge but so far China is the only notable exception.
And it's not like Nokia doesn't have it's own factories in China anyway.
Not sure how this relates to what I was saying. It's not a matter of the hardware meeting minimal standards, its a matter of selling a great deal of hardware at razor thin margins, at the expense of more profitable items.
Nokia may be able to undercut all comers when it comes to cheap phones, but tha is perhaps not a great business to be in, going forward, even less so with "notable exception" China perfectly happy to crank out functional equivalents for less.
Looking forward to getting an OLED 4th Gen iPhone.
I'm in for a penny...in for a pound for 4th Gen iPhone as well. I think OLED is a given as well but other than that I haven't a clue what Apple's going to deliver.
I'm in for a penny...in for a pound for 4th Gen iPhone as well. I think OLED is a given as well but other than that I haven't a clue what Apple's going to deliver.
Has OLED been shown to be overall better than an LCD of the same resolution? I?ve seen some pros and cons for it, but the one I?d be most interested in is the power usage reduction, which seems to not to be a factor on such small displays.
Has OLED been shown to be overall better than an LCD of the same resolution? I?ve seen some pros and cons for it, but the one I?d be most interested in is the power usage reduction, which seems to not to be a factor on such small displays.
In contrast, certainly. I think though it's foolish to assume that OLED automagically means a better picture though Apple won't put in a substandard OLED screen. They'll choose a screen that delivers great picture along with low power consumption. I can't wait.
In contrast, certainly. I think though it's foolish to assume that OLED automagically means a better picture though Apple won't put in a substandard OLED screen. They'll choose a screen that delivers great picture along with low power consumption. I can't wait.
Has longevity of use for OLED sufficient for a high-use iPhone compared to LCD? What about images that are not black-heavy, where I recall OLED really being superior, especially in power usage over LCD?
Do you ave your original prediction? If you said iPhones would reach 60M then you'll be short. If you said devices running iPhone OS then it'll be exceeded by millions.
Do you ave your original prediction? If you said iPhones would reach 60M then you'll be short. If you said devices running iPhone OS then it'll be exceeded by millions.
He was talking 60 million iphones IN 2009 --- not cumulative --- just 2009 sales.
So far in 3 quarters of 2009, Apple sold 16 million iphones --- plus another 10 million iphones in the christmas quarter, you will have 26 million iphones for the year (which is 43% of vinney57's estimate).
Comments
Is it time to mention my widely disparaged prediction of 60M total iPhone sales by end 2009?
Many found the idea laughable 18 months ago...
Don't be too hard on them. Lack of vision is common. Just ask Michael Dell, Steve Ballmer, Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Ed Zander, Jim Balsillie, Ed Colligan, Roger McNamee . . .
That's where the Dell comparisons come in, though.
Nokia can continue to prop up its global share numbers by pouring an endless stream of inexpensive handsets into every market it can get a toe-hold in, but when another manufacturer works the price end better than you can (oh hi Bejing!) then things suddenly get hard. Like Dell, you have to start working the actually profitable end of the stick, but you may have dug yourself a hole in terms of brand perception.
The cell phone market is not the PC market.
For a phone to reach (most) markets, it still needs to pass conformance testing and the manufacturer needs to license the right technologies. Carriers trust Nokia to produce phones that aren't going to screw their network up and Nokia are the ones who own a lot of the parents around cell phones. Owning the patents means that they can make phones cheaper than new entrants to the market. Of course, if a market doesn't have strong IP laws then Nokia will have less of a competitive edge but so far China is the only notable exception.
And it's not like Nokia doesn't have it's own factories in China anyway.
The cell phone market is not the PC market.
For a phone to reach (most) markets, it still needs to pass conformance testing and the manufacturer needs to license the right technologies. Carriers trust Nokia to produce phones that aren't going to screw their network up and Nokia are the ones who own a lot of the parents around cell phones. Owning the patents means that they can make phones cheaper than new entrants to the market. Of course, if a market doesn't have strong IP laws then Nokia will have less of a competitive edge but so far China is the only notable exception.
And it's not like Nokia doesn't have it's own factories in China anyway.
Not sure how this relates to what I was saying. It's not a matter of the hardware meeting minimal standards, its a matter of selling a great deal of hardware at razor thin margins, at the expense of more profitable items.
Nokia may be able to undercut all comers when it comes to cheap phones, but tha is perhaps not a great business to be in, going forward, even less so with "notable exception" China perfectly happy to crank out functional equivalents for less.
Is it time to mention my widely disparaged prediction of 60M total iPhone sales by end 2009?
Many found the idea laughable 18 months ago...
Total sales of iphone is 33.75 million so far.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IP...er_quarter.svg
They've made their money by being very good at localizing their products and by undercutting the competition through economy of scale.
Not selling flip phones --- show how BAD Nokia has been in localizing their phones in the US, Japan and Korea where flip phone is the norm.
Not selling flip phones --- show how BAD Nokia has been in localizing their phones in the US, Japan and Korea where flip phone is the norm.
Nokia currently has 11 flip models on its American store.
And South Korea is all about slide phones, not flip phones.
Total sales of iphone is 33.75 million so far.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IP...er_quarter.svg
Add another quarter (Apple's year ends in Sept - mine doesn't) and we'll see.
Add in iPod Touch, Apple's secret weapon, and it's well beyond 60 million. Unfortunately Apple don't separate out iPod Touch sales.
I'm a visionary, not clairvoyant
Looking forward to getting an OLED 4th Gen iPhone.
I'm in for a penny...in for a pound for 4th Gen iPhone as well. I think OLED is a given as well but other than that I haven't a clue what Apple's going to deliver.
I'm in for a penny...in for a pound for 4th Gen iPhone as well. I think OLED is a given as well but other than that I haven't a clue what Apple's going to deliver.
Has OLED been shown to be overall better than an LCD of the same resolution? I?ve seen some pros and cons for it, but the one I?d be most interested in is the power usage reduction, which seems to not to be a factor on such small displays.
Has OLED been shown to be overall better than an LCD of the same resolution? I?ve seen some pros and cons for it, but the one I?d be most interested in is the power usage reduction, which seems to not to be a factor on such small displays.
In contrast, certainly. I think though it's foolish to assume that OLED automagically means a better picture though Apple won't put in a substandard OLED screen. They'll choose a screen that delivers great picture along with low power consumption. I can't wait.
Here's a link showing the difference in Nokia models, one with OLED
And more OLED from Nokia
I can't wait.
In contrast, certainly. I think though it's foolish to assume that OLED automagically means a better picture though Apple won't put in a substandard OLED screen. They'll choose a screen that delivers great picture along with low power consumption. I can't wait.
Here's a link showing the difference in Nokia models, one with OLED
image: http://media.share.ovi.com/m1/large/...1086cfd2e5.jpg
And more OLED from Nokia
I can't wait.
Has longevity of use for OLED sufficient for a high-use iPhone compared to LCD? What about images that are not black-heavy, where I recall OLED really being superior, especially in power usage over LCD?
Nokia currently has 11 flip models on its American store.
And South Korea is all about slide phones, not flip phones.
It's about 4-5 years too late for Nokia to start selling flip phones at this point.
Koreans still use flip phones --- I watch plenty of korean tv dramas and they all have flip phones.
Add another quarter (Apple's year ends in Sept - mine doesn't) and we'll see.
Add in iPod Touch, Apple's secret weapon, and it's well beyond 60 million. Unfortunately Apple don't separate out iPod Touch sales.
I'm a visionary, not clairvoyant
We'll see what? Apple selling 26.25 million iphones in the christmas quarter?
Apple already annoiunced that they sold 50 million iphones/ipod touches in September.
http://moconews.net/article/419-appl...touch-devices/
We'll see what? Apple selling 26.25 million iphones in the christmas quarter?
Apple already annoiunced that they sold 50 million iphones/ipod touches in September.
http://moconews.net/article/419-appl...touch-devices/
Looks like I'm on track then.
Looks like I'm on track then.
Do you ave your original prediction? If you said iPhones would reach 60M then you'll be short. If you said devices running iPhone OS then it'll be exceeded by millions.
Do you ave your original prediction? If you said iPhones would reach 60M then you'll be short. If you said devices running iPhone OS then it'll be exceeded by millions.
He was talking 60 million iphones IN 2009 --- not cumulative --- just 2009 sales.
http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...2&postcount=39
So far in 3 quarters of 2009, Apple sold 16 million iphones --- plus another 10 million iphones in the christmas quarter, you will have 26 million iphones for the year (which is 43% of vinney57's estimate).