Buy One, Get One Free, will only get you so far. It helps with # of units shipped, but Apple stil has yet to report the result of their holiday quarter. And RIM's Storm devices are hardly designed to serve the user. The writing is on the wall and RIM needs to start pulling rabbits out of hats. Nice numbers, but the story behind the story isn't too promising.
"MKM Partners LLC analyst Tero Kuittinen said the sales outlook is a strong signal that RIM is successfully cracking the consumer market.
"That's a major positive surprise because people have been very skeptical about the February quarter," he said. "People wrote off RIM too soon.""
""The fact that they beat by more than half a million units in shipments in Q3 would seem to imply that they either maintained market share or took market share, and that the consumer business was quite good. I mean, they beat by a lot.""
"Some analysts say competition concerns are overblown and reflected an underestimate of the ongoing growth of the smartphone market."
See, I can find an article to twist in RIM's favor just like you can find an article to twist against RIM.
While I don't disagree that RIM will continue to have a hard battle ahead as its competitors continue to gain (especially Apple and Google), I disagree in your "doom and gloom" assessment for RIM. And yes, those are nice numbers. A rise in profits and sales tends to mean that people are buying. They even posted profits as they fumbled through their first Storm launch. And continue to post these profits when the Storm2 was introduced with slightly less fanfare.
Hardly designed to serve the user? All depends on who you talk to. For a smartphone that you navigate with a trackball/trackpad and physical keyboard (besides the Storm line, which I'm assuming you are mainly referring to), it's one of the better, if not best, systems out there. There are a lot of people out there that will argue with you that having a physical keyboard is essential and BlackBerries have some of the best designs in the industry. I've seen plenty of high school and even junior high students walking around the mall with BlackBerries in-hand texting away. If they can figure the supposedly complex interface out, then well... And I know of plenty of coworkers and friends who wouldn't give up their BlackBerry. There's a reason why it's called a CrackBerry.
"MKM Partners LLC analyst Tero Kuittinen said the sales outlook is a strong signal that RIM is successfully cracking the consumer market.
"That's a major positive surprise because people have been very skeptical about the February quarter," he said. "People wrote off RIM too soon.""
""The fact that they beat by more than half a million units in shipments in Q3 would seem to imply that they either maintained market share or took market share, and that the consumer business was quite good. I mean, they beat by a lot.""
"Some analysts say competition concerns are overblown and reflected an underestimate of the ongoing growth of the smartphone market."
See, I can find an article to twist in RIM's favor just like you can find an article to twist against RIM.
They are probably POS Storms swapped under RiMS replacement warranty.
The Storm is easily the most problematic handset we sell, usually after 3 or 4 replacements we offer customers iPhones (as the pricing here is exactly the same) and then we don't see them again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisk
The article said they "gained 4.4 million," implying that the rest were probably older customers getting new Blackberries.
RIMM ASP are lower than iPhone's and so are margins. Meanwhile, YOY growth of the iPhone has exceeded RIMM. I would expect the sequential growth to do well. More like 40% and closer to 11M based on the stats published on AI.
If RIM sells that many [a lot of the lower priced models included] this is only good news for Apple who will even surpass that number and thus extremely bad news for Nokia--the biggest fish in the sea seeing itself become a throw away vendor.
RIM's days are numbered - at least in my organization. The majority of our executives already have personal iPhones. As soon as Apple gets FIPS 140-2 compliance, the gloves are off. Both Exchange and Lotus Domino support Active Sync. I'd wager a good dinner that the next iteration of the iPhone OS will be released with or near a new version of ActiveSync that supports over the air provisioning. And that will be the final nail. All the security, management without any requirement for a separate server, CAL, shipping all my data to Canada...
As you said above, their days are numbered. They?re riding the smartphone influx right now but with less profit per unit and with an ever increasing risk of BES sales and per unit yearly subscriptions plummeting. Even when they change their business model I think they?re going to suffer great financial lose while still being a major player.
Being bought by MS might be the best thing for their stockholders as the value will skyrocket when that rumour hits.
I sold my RiM stock in 2008 before the market crash. Even with their nice bump today I am glad i sold my stock. I do with i had bought more Amazon and bought into Palm when the Pre rumours hit, oh well, there will be more opportunities in the future for bull trading in a bear market.
They are probably POS Storms swapped under RiMS replacement warranty.
The Storm is easily the most problematic handset we sell, usually after 3 or 4 replacements we offer customers iPhones (as the pricing here is exactly the same) and then we don't see them again.
Sad when the only ammo you have is the storm, the 9550 is much more reliable than the 9530 (I know I had one believe me) and no horrible software out the box like .65 that was on the original.
Believe you and me I was happy as hell to switch from my Storm to my Bold.
Btw, how many of you are eating your words right now cause you thought RIM was dying? Lulz
EDIT: as you can see many users are loyal to RIM as they continuously buy updated products, there is a reason its called CRACKberry and why said website has almost 2 million registered users.
Sad when the only ammo you have is the storm, the 9550 is much more reliable than the 9530 (I know I had one believe me) and no horrible software out the box like .65 that was on the original.
Believe you and me I was happy as hell to switch from my Storm to my Bold.
Btw, how many of you are eating your words right now cause you thought RIM was dying? Lulz
EDIT: as you can see many users are loyal to RIM as they continuously buy updated products, there is a reason its called CRACKberry and why said website has almost 2 million registered users.
Times are changing. The great advantages that Blackberries have are gradually being eclipsed. Buy One Get One Free only works for so long. It's all about Apps, content, media, games, etc. Apple will eclipse RIM soon enough.
Wait for Apple to post its numbers for the quarter. THAT will be impressive.
Apple will still surpass RIM's share. It's going to happen.
I've been traveling in Europe this week, and the number of iPhones I've seen are simply stunning. Vastly different compared to less than a year ago. (I am also seeing a visibly higher number of Macs in airline lounges, again compared to a year ago; for instance, in a bay that I am seated in, there are 6 people -- 4 Macs, on HP, one with no computer but she's talking on an iPhone).
I think Apple's non-US numbers will come in particularly impressively in the last quarter of the calendar year.
Times are changing. The great advantages that Blackberries have are gradually being eclipsed. Buy One Get One Free only works for so long. It's all about Apps, content, media, games, etc. Apple will eclipse RIM soon enough.
Yah because RIM totally sells those phones BOGO and not Verizon right?
Yeah, and its not like my berry has Apps content media games etc at all right. The only thing the times are showing are that Blackberry and iPhone are the two main upcoming titans in the smartphone arena, and with RIM expanding into new regions expect numbers to continue to grow.
RIM has been slowly (i mean slowly) implementing new features because of competition, and Apple has done the same (and just as slow as well...) i for one welcome this with open arms, cause that means sales will force creativity and innovation and make each respective platforms better (id like to hear more on the next gen iphone than "Verizon"...)
What everyone's forgetting is that RIMM sells phones in more countries and has more carriers than the iPhone, RIMM is very successful is sucking up customers that Nokia could have had if they were building a smartphone that more people wanted/could afford.
The numbers released on sales etc are international numbers.
What is drawing my special attention to BlackBerries is they are useable in what we call "Unik" mode. Which means this is 3G phone outside of WiFi coverage being capable of becoming IP phone on the WiFi network of same carrier's box with carrier-assured connection quality and conditions. iPhone is light-years behind this business case. The problem is I can't take cheapo-crapo hardware keyboards anymore...
The iPhone is the best thing to have happened to RIM. Already dominant in the smartphone space, RIM had little room to grow. Apple comes along and makes the smartphone "for the rest of us," thus expanding the market overall. RIM begins to grow again as more non-business types start buying smartphones. Good for both.
Except this isn't even remotely true. The iPhone created smartphone users out of NON smartphone users. Something RIM's entire product line could not, with a massive headstart.
After 3 years of iPhone, RIM products look dated and antiquated, and they are. There certainly WAS room for RIM to grow during the last 3 years. They did not, because they did not introduce a relevant product. (their idea on how to combat the iPhone problem was the Storm, and Storm2. They failed, utterly.)
In the next 3 years, RIM is going to do very poorly.
Except this isn't even remotely true. The iPhone created smartphone users out of NON smartphone users. Something RIM's entire product line could not, with a massive headstart.
After 3 years of iPhone, RIM products look dated and antiquated, and they are. There certainly WAS room for RIM to grow during the last 3 years. They did not, because they did not introduce a relevant product. (their idea on how to combat the iPhone problem was the Storm, and Storm2. They failed, utterly.)
In the next 3 years, RIM is going to do very poorly.
How is his comment not true at all? Look back to the history of RIM's earnings and sales since the iPhone's introduction in 2007. It's been a steady rise upwards pretty much all the time. Enterprise only accounts for a portion of those sales and now more and more sales are being generated by non-enterprise users (something close to 70 or 80%, if I'm not mistaken). Just walking around, I've seen more BlackBerries in use by all ages than I've ever seen before the iPhone was introduced.
And how did RIM itself not grow? It was labeled the fastest growing company by Forbes. They've launched many new models, including the controversial touchscreen Storm line, started App World, brought in many new developers, and added OpenGL ES to BlackBerries. And aquired companies that specialize where they lack (read: browser). While they are late to add these things, they're still going forward and implementing them.
RIM has done plenty to open new doors for themselves. In the next 3 years, RIM will continue to do well for themselves. While they might not do as well as Apple, they won't keel over and die (like you're implying) either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhetoric.assassin
oh that would be the death shrill of the BBs...
Which is why RIM will definitely reject any offer MS will make.
How is his comment not true at all? Look back to the history of RIM's earnings and sales since the iPhone's introduction in 2007. It's been a steady rise upwards pretty much all the time. Enterprise only accounts for a portion of those sales and now more and more sales are being generated by non-enterprise users (something close to 70 or 80%, if I'm not mistaken). Just walking around, I've seen more BlackBerries in use by all ages than I've ever seen before the iPhone was introduced.
And how did RIM itself not grow? It was labeled the fastest growing company by Forbes. They've launched many new models, including the controversial touchscreen Storm line, started App World, brought in many new developers, and added OpenGL ES to BlackBerries. And aquired companies that specialize where they lack (read: browser). While they are late to add these things, they're still going forward and implementing them.
RIM has done plenty to open new doors for themselves. In the next 3 years, RIM will continue to do well for themselves. While they might not do as well as Apple, they won't keel over and die (like you're implying) either.
Which is why RIM will definitely reject any offer MS will make.
Jesus I have been saying this all along now, apple worshipers seem to think RIM is going to just fall.
Also to my knowledge I believe Apple is in more countries than RIM is currently
RIM has done plenty to open new doors for themselves. In the next 3 years, RIM will continue to do well for themselves. While they might not do as well as Apple, they won't keel over and die (like you're implying) either.
I don't think so. There is such a pent up demand for company approved iPhones in my organization it isn't even funny. Every time I pull my personal iPhone out, everyone asks "oh, do we have the iPhone now?!?" since they know I am involved in email. And they are always disappointed when I say "not yet" and point out it's my personal iPhone.
And without the costs of BES server fees, CALs and special data plans, I expect the number of mobile users to dramatically increase once the iPhone is approved for use in our organization. Those aren't just conversions, but new users entirely. Both Notes and Exchange now support ActivSync - that's 90% of corporate America.
Apple just needs two things - FIPS 140.2 certification (the security people are hung up on that) and wireless provisioning. I expect both of those to be offered by this June. Apple is keenly aware these are their last major stumbling blocks to the enterprise - I know because I talk with the Apple enterprise folks. For all those who assume Apple is clueless on the Enterprise they couldn't be more wrong. Just like Apple refuses to enter the bargain basement high volume low margin market, the aren't ready to push into the Enterprise just yet. They had way to many things to fix in the foundations of Mac OSX - but now with SL, I think you are going to see a shift in strategy over time. The foundations for Mac OSX are now pretty set - major API shifts should be the exception rather then the rule, they have much better integration with AD and Exchange, etc. so now it makes sense for them to firm up that part of their strategy.
Same with the iPhone. Apple is still having problems meeting current demand, and they know they still have a few holes (security, management) to plug. I expect these to be solved by June with the next iPhone and iPhone OS. I would imagine a 3GS or higher will be required because of the encryption built in to the hardware, and I find it interesting that there is a new manufacturer for the new iPhone rumored to be coming online. Sounds like they are gearing up to me (not that it's a hard prediction to make!).
RIM has a serious issue - Apple just has to plug the last couple of holes in their enterprise strategy to match them. To compete RIM not only needs some compelling hardware, but also a complete applications story. While nice and a quantum leap above previous BB hardware (not that it's hard), the Bold still isn't an iPhone - the screen is half the height and the OS still feels clunky compared to the iPhone. Simple operations in the BB mail app are still counter-intuative and frustrating. Apple's development tools are significantly better and more flexible, and there is great interest in corporate space. With wireless provisioning and management the last significant barrier to the iPhone in the enterprise goes out the window and the floodgates will open. Not only will people be using them for email, but in-house developed applications. Right now it is a fair criticism to say enterprise application management on the iPhone is clunky - I don't expect it to stay that way for long. Just like in the consumer space, applications are going to be the killer feature driving iPhone adoption.
[QUOTE=DocNo42;1538480]I don't think so. There is such a pent up demand for company approved iPhones in my organization it isn't even funny. Every time I pull my personal iPhone out, everyone asks "oh, do we have the iPhone now?!?" since they know I am involved in email. And they are always disappointed when I say "not yet" and point out it's my personal iPhone.
And without the costs of BES server fees, CALs and special data plans, I expect the number of mobile users to dramatically increase once the iPhone is approved for use in our organization. Those aren't just conversions, but new users entirely. Both Notes and Exchange now support ActivSync - that's 90% of corporate America.
Apple just needs two things - FIPS 140.2 certification (the security people are hung up on that) and wireless provisioning. I expect both of those to be offered by this June. Apple is keenly aware these are their last major stumbling blocks to the enterprise - I know because I talk with the Apple enterprise folks. For all those who assume Apple is clueless on the Enterprise they couldn't be more wrong. Just like Apple refuses to enter the bargain basement high volume low margin market, the aren't ready to push into the Enterprise just yet. They had way to many things to fix in the foundations of Mac OSX - but now with SL, I think you are going to see a shift in strategy over time. The foundations for Mac OSX are now pretty set - major API shifts should be the exception rather then the rule, they have much better integration with AD and Exchange, etc. so now it makes sense for them to firm up that part of their strategy.
Same with the iPhone. Apple is still having problems meeting current demand, and they know they still have a few holes (security, management) to plug. I expect these to be solved by June with the next iPhone and iPhone OS. I would imagine a 3GS or higher will be required because of the encryption built in to the hardware, and I find it interesting that there is a new manufacturer for the new iPhone rumored to be coming online. Sounds like they are gearing up to me (not that it's a hard prediction to make!).
RIM has a serious issue - Apple just has to plug the last couple of holes in their enterprise strategy to match them. To compete RIM not only needs some compelling hardware, but also a complete applications story. While nice and a quantum leap above previous BB hardware (not that it's hard), the Bold still isn't an iPhone - the screen is half the height and the OS still feels clunky compared to the iPhone. Simple operations in the BB mail app are still counter-intuative and frustrating. Apple's development tools are significantly better and more flexible, and there is great interest in corporate space. With wireless provisioning and management the last significant barrier to the iPhone in the enterprise goes out the window and the floodgates will open. Not only will people be using them for email, but in-house developed applications. Right now it is a fair criticism to say enterprise application management on the iPhone is clunky - I don't expect it to stay that way for long. Just like in the consumer space, applications are going to be the killer feature driving iPhone adoption.
---------------------------------------------
You talk a good game but the likelyhood of Apple gets FIPS is a joke. They can't keep the iPhone from being jailbroke 1 week after each OS update. Trust me it's a huge issue and provides a means to disable ActiveSync policy.
Your other phantom solution is how Apple will improve security / management. How their own platform? You better bet it will have the same server and CAL costs as RIM's solution. Apple is tied to Microsoft's hip - they need Exchange ActiveSync or it won't function. The issue is EAS alone doesn't provide half the policy BES does. Even with Exchange 2010 it's not close. Last I looked there is no less then 10 EAS based management solutions that support iPhone - none of them match Blackberry's solution and their cost is 2x the cost of our current BES CAL. So what will we gain? iPhones with entertainment and users downloading crap?
The other issue is Apple controls all Application deployment. We want to control that which we can do through BES. No need for Apple, approval etc. We also control how / when we deploy said applications.
In the post Madoff world there is a growing need to supervise SMS (or disable it) Apple doesn't provide that - hopefully the next OS / model will.
Which brings my last point - Apple just wants you to upgrade which is fine for consumers but we're not about to upgrade our mobile deployment yearly. Presently we get 3 years per device. They also have little to no enterprise support in place. They actually suggested to go to the nearest Apple store. Cute.
We don't support iPhone, don't allow personal liable devices and it's likely not going to change anytime soon.
Comments
Buy One, Get One Free, will only get you so far. It helps with # of units shipped, but Apple stil has yet to report the result of their holiday quarter. And RIM's Storm devices are hardly designed to serve the user. The writing is on the wall and RIM needs to start pulling rabbits out of hats. Nice numbers, but the story behind the story isn't too promising.
But yet the Reuters also released this article:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN...pe=marketsNews
"MKM Partners LLC analyst Tero Kuittinen said the sales outlook is a strong signal that RIM is successfully cracking the consumer market.
"That's a major positive surprise because people have been very skeptical about the February quarter," he said. "People wrote off RIM too soon.""
""The fact that they beat by more than half a million units in shipments in Q3 would seem to imply that they either maintained market share or took market share, and that the consumer business was quite good. I mean, they beat by a lot.""
"Some analysts say competition concerns are overblown and reflected an underestimate of the ongoing growth of the smartphone market."
See, I can find an article to twist in RIM's favor just like you can find an article to twist against RIM.
While I don't disagree that RIM will continue to have a hard battle ahead as its competitors continue to gain (especially Apple and Google), I disagree in your "doom and gloom" assessment for RIM. And yes, those are nice numbers. A rise in profits and sales tends to mean that people are buying. They even posted profits as they fumbled through their first Storm launch. And continue to post these profits when the Storm2 was introduced with slightly less fanfare.
Hardly designed to serve the user? All depends on who you talk to. For a smartphone that you navigate with a trackball/trackpad and physical keyboard (besides the Storm line, which I'm assuming you are mainly referring to), it's one of the better, if not best, systems out there. There are a lot of people out there that will argue with you that having a physical keyboard is essential and BlackBerries have some of the best designs in the industry. I've seen plenty of high school and even junior high students walking around the mall with BlackBerries in-hand texting away. If they can figure the supposedly complex interface out, then well... And I know of plenty of coworkers and friends who wouldn't give up their BlackBerry. There's a reason why it's called a CrackBerry.
But yet the Reuters also released this article:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN...pe=marketsNews
"MKM Partners LLC analyst Tero Kuittinen said the sales outlook is a strong signal that RIM is successfully cracking the consumer market.
"That's a major positive surprise because people have been very skeptical about the February quarter," he said. "People wrote off RIM too soon.""
""The fact that they beat by more than half a million units in shipments in Q3 would seem to imply that they either maintained market share or took market share, and that the consumer business was quite good. I mean, they beat by a lot.""
"Some analysts say competition concerns are overblown and reflected an underestimate of the ongoing growth of the smartphone market."
See, I can find an article to twist in RIM's favor just like you can find an article to twist against RIM.
.
Nice find.
The Storm is easily the most problematic handset we sell, usually after 3 or 4 replacements we offer customers iPhones (as the pricing here is exactly the same) and then we don't see them again.
The article said they "gained 4.4 million," implying that the rest were probably older customers getting new Blackberries.
RIMM ASP are lower than iPhone's and so are margins. Meanwhile, YOY growth of the iPhone has exceeded RIMM. I would expect the sequential growth to do well. More like 40% and closer to 11M based on the stats published on AI.
If RIM sells that many [a lot of the lower priced models included] this is only good news for Apple who will even surpass that number and thus extremely bad news for Nokia--the biggest fish in the sea seeing itself become a throw away vendor.
the thing that worries me about rim is that ms might buy them
Only if you are a RIM shareholder
Only if you are a RIM shareholder
As you said above, their days are numbered. They?re riding the smartphone influx right now but with less profit per unit and with an ever increasing risk of BES sales and per unit yearly subscriptions plummeting. Even when they change their business model I think they?re going to suffer great financial lose while still being a major player.
Being bought by MS might be the best thing for their stockholders as the value will skyrocket when that rumour hits.
I sold my RiM stock in 2008 before the market crash. Even with their nice bump today I am glad i sold my stock. I do with i had bought more Amazon and bought into Palm when the Pre rumours hit, oh well, there will be more opportunities in the future for bull trading in a bear market.
They are probably POS Storms swapped under RiMS replacement warranty.
The Storm is easily the most problematic handset we sell, usually after 3 or 4 replacements we offer customers iPhones (as the pricing here is exactly the same) and then we don't see them again.
Sad when the only ammo you have is the storm, the 9550 is much more reliable than the 9530 (I know I had one believe me) and no horrible software out the box like .65 that was on the original.
Believe you and me I was happy as hell to switch from my Storm to my Bold.
Btw, how many of you are eating your words right now cause you thought RIM was dying? Lulz
EDIT: as you can see many users are loyal to RIM as they continuously buy updated products, there is a reason its called CRACKberry and why said website has almost 2 million registered users.
Sad when the only ammo you have is the storm, the 9550 is much more reliable than the 9530 (I know I had one believe me) and no horrible software out the box like .65 that was on the original.
Believe you and me I was happy as hell to switch from my Storm to my Bold.
Btw, how many of you are eating your words right now cause you thought RIM was dying? Lulz
EDIT: as you can see many users are loyal to RIM as they continuously buy updated products, there is a reason its called CRACKberry and why said website has almost 2 million registered users.
Times are changing. The great advantages that Blackberries have are gradually being eclipsed. Buy One Get One Free only works for so long. It's all about Apps, content, media, games, etc. Apple will eclipse RIM soon enough.
Wait for Apple to post its numbers for the quarter. THAT will be impressive.
Apple will still surpass RIM's share. It's going to happen.
I've been traveling in Europe this week, and the number of iPhones I've seen are simply stunning. Vastly different compared to less than a year ago. (I am also seeing a visibly higher number of Macs in airline lounges, again compared to a year ago; for instance, in a bay that I am seated in, there are 6 people -- 4 Macs, on HP, one with no computer but she's talking on an iPhone).
I think Apple's non-US numbers will come in particularly impressively in the last quarter of the calendar year.
Times are changing. The great advantages that Blackberries have are gradually being eclipsed. Buy One Get One Free only works for so long. It's all about Apps, content, media, games, etc. Apple will eclipse RIM soon enough.
Yah because RIM totally sells those phones BOGO and not Verizon right?
Yeah, and its not like my berry has Apps content media games etc at all right. The only thing the times are showing are that Blackberry and iPhone are the two main upcoming titans in the smartphone arena, and with RIM expanding into new regions expect numbers to continue to grow.
RIM has been slowly (i mean slowly) implementing new features because of competition, and Apple has done the same (and just as slow as well...) i for one welcome this with open arms, cause that means sales will force creativity and innovation and make each respective platforms better (id like to hear more on the next gen iphone than "Verizon"...)
The numbers released on sales etc are international numbers.
The iPhone is the best thing to have happened to RIM. Already dominant in the smartphone space, RIM had little room to grow. Apple comes along and makes the smartphone "for the rest of us," thus expanding the market overall. RIM begins to grow again as more non-business types start buying smartphones. Good for both.
Except this isn't even remotely true. The iPhone created smartphone users out of NON smartphone users. Something RIM's entire product line could not, with a massive headstart.
After 3 years of iPhone, RIM products look dated and antiquated, and they are. There certainly WAS room for RIM to grow during the last 3 years. They did not, because they did not introduce a relevant product. (their idea on how to combat the iPhone problem was the Storm, and Storm2. They failed, utterly.)
In the next 3 years, RIM is going to do very poorly.
the thing that worries me about rim is that ms might buy them
oh that would be the death shrill of the BBs...
Except this isn't even remotely true. The iPhone created smartphone users out of NON smartphone users. Something RIM's entire product line could not, with a massive headstart.
After 3 years of iPhone, RIM products look dated and antiquated, and they are. There certainly WAS room for RIM to grow during the last 3 years. They did not, because they did not introduce a relevant product. (their idea on how to combat the iPhone problem was the Storm, and Storm2. They failed, utterly.)
In the next 3 years, RIM is going to do very poorly.
How is his comment not true at all? Look back to the history of RIM's earnings and sales since the iPhone's introduction in 2007. It's been a steady rise upwards pretty much all the time. Enterprise only accounts for a portion of those sales and now more and more sales are being generated by non-enterprise users (something close to 70 or 80%, if I'm not mistaken). Just walking around, I've seen more BlackBerries in use by all ages than I've ever seen before the iPhone was introduced.
And how did RIM itself not grow? It was labeled the fastest growing company by Forbes. They've launched many new models, including the controversial touchscreen Storm line, started App World, brought in many new developers, and added OpenGL ES to BlackBerries. And aquired companies that specialize where they lack (read: browser). While they are late to add these things, they're still going forward and implementing them.
RIM has done plenty to open new doors for themselves. In the next 3 years, RIM will continue to do well for themselves. While they might not do as well as Apple, they won't keel over and die (like you're implying) either.
oh that would be the death shrill of the BBs...
Which is why RIM will definitely reject any offer MS will make.
How is his comment not true at all? Look back to the history of RIM's earnings and sales since the iPhone's introduction in 2007. It's been a steady rise upwards pretty much all the time. Enterprise only accounts for a portion of those sales and now more and more sales are being generated by non-enterprise users (something close to 70 or 80%, if I'm not mistaken). Just walking around, I've seen more BlackBerries in use by all ages than I've ever seen before the iPhone was introduced.
And how did RIM itself not grow? It was labeled the fastest growing company by Forbes. They've launched many new models, including the controversial touchscreen Storm line, started App World, brought in many new developers, and added OpenGL ES to BlackBerries. And aquired companies that specialize where they lack (read: browser). While they are late to add these things, they're still going forward and implementing them.
RIM has done plenty to open new doors for themselves. In the next 3 years, RIM will continue to do well for themselves. While they might not do as well as Apple, they won't keel over and die (like you're implying) either.
Which is why RIM will definitely reject any offer MS will make.
Jesus I have been saying this all along now, apple worshipers seem to think RIM is going to just fall.
Also to my knowledge I believe Apple is in more countries than RIM is currently
RIM has done plenty to open new doors for themselves. In the next 3 years, RIM will continue to do well for themselves. While they might not do as well as Apple, they won't keel over and die (like you're implying) either.
I don't think so. There is such a pent up demand for company approved iPhones in my organization it isn't even funny. Every time I pull my personal iPhone out, everyone asks "oh, do we have the iPhone now?!?" since they know I am involved in email. And they are always disappointed when I say "not yet" and point out it's my personal iPhone.
And without the costs of BES server fees, CALs and special data plans, I expect the number of mobile users to dramatically increase once the iPhone is approved for use in our organization. Those aren't just conversions, but new users entirely. Both Notes and Exchange now support ActivSync - that's 90% of corporate America.
Apple just needs two things - FIPS 140.2 certification (the security people are hung up on that) and wireless provisioning. I expect both of those to be offered by this June. Apple is keenly aware these are their last major stumbling blocks to the enterprise - I know because I talk with the Apple enterprise folks. For all those who assume Apple is clueless on the Enterprise they couldn't be more wrong. Just like Apple refuses to enter the bargain basement high volume low margin market, the aren't ready to push into the Enterprise just yet. They had way to many things to fix in the foundations of Mac OSX - but now with SL, I think you are going to see a shift in strategy over time. The foundations for Mac OSX are now pretty set - major API shifts should be the exception rather then the rule, they have much better integration with AD and Exchange, etc. so now it makes sense for them to firm up that part of their strategy.
Same with the iPhone. Apple is still having problems meeting current demand, and they know they still have a few holes (security, management) to plug. I expect these to be solved by June with the next iPhone and iPhone OS. I would imagine a 3GS or higher will be required because of the encryption built in to the hardware, and I find it interesting that there is a new manufacturer for the new iPhone rumored to be coming online. Sounds like they are gearing up to me (not that it's a hard prediction to make!).
RIM has a serious issue - Apple just has to plug the last couple of holes in their enterprise strategy to match them. To compete RIM not only needs some compelling hardware, but also a complete applications story. While nice and a quantum leap above previous BB hardware (not that it's hard), the Bold still isn't an iPhone - the screen is half the height and the OS still feels clunky compared to the iPhone. Simple operations in the BB mail app are still counter-intuative and frustrating. Apple's development tools are significantly better and more flexible, and there is great interest in corporate space. With wireless provisioning and management the last significant barrier to the iPhone in the enterprise goes out the window and the floodgates will open. Not only will people be using them for email, but in-house developed applications. Right now it is a fair criticism to say enterprise application management on the iPhone is clunky - I don't expect it to stay that way for long. Just like in the consumer space, applications are going to be the killer feature driving iPhone adoption.
Having said all that, I'm still waiting for a fold out keyboard I can plug my iPhone into via the dock connector like I had for my Palm Pilot: http://www.anu.edu.au/disabilities/a.../index.php?p=1
Don't want bluetooth - it's a hassle and battery drain. Plus the keyboard doubles as a stand. Getting tired of waiting
And without the costs of BES server fees, CALs and special data plans, I expect the number of mobile users to dramatically increase once the iPhone is approved for use in our organization. Those aren't just conversions, but new users entirely. Both Notes and Exchange now support ActivSync - that's 90% of corporate America.
Apple just needs two things - FIPS 140.2 certification (the security people are hung up on that) and wireless provisioning. I expect both of those to be offered by this June. Apple is keenly aware these are their last major stumbling blocks to the enterprise - I know because I talk with the Apple enterprise folks. For all those who assume Apple is clueless on the Enterprise they couldn't be more wrong. Just like Apple refuses to enter the bargain basement high volume low margin market, the aren't ready to push into the Enterprise just yet. They had way to many things to fix in the foundations of Mac OSX - but now with SL, I think you are going to see a shift in strategy over time. The foundations for Mac OSX are now pretty set - major API shifts should be the exception rather then the rule, they have much better integration with AD and Exchange, etc. so now it makes sense for them to firm up that part of their strategy.
Same with the iPhone. Apple is still having problems meeting current demand, and they know they still have a few holes (security, management) to plug. I expect these to be solved by June with the next iPhone and iPhone OS. I would imagine a 3GS or higher will be required because of the encryption built in to the hardware, and I find it interesting that there is a new manufacturer for the new iPhone rumored to be coming online. Sounds like they are gearing up to me (not that it's a hard prediction to make!).
RIM has a serious issue - Apple just has to plug the last couple of holes in their enterprise strategy to match them. To compete RIM not only needs some compelling hardware, but also a complete applications story. While nice and a quantum leap above previous BB hardware (not that it's hard), the Bold still isn't an iPhone - the screen is half the height and the OS still feels clunky compared to the iPhone. Simple operations in the BB mail app are still counter-intuative and frustrating. Apple's development tools are significantly better and more flexible, and there is great interest in corporate space. With wireless provisioning and management the last significant barrier to the iPhone in the enterprise goes out the window and the floodgates will open. Not only will people be using them for email, but in-house developed applications. Right now it is a fair criticism to say enterprise application management on the iPhone is clunky - I don't expect it to stay that way for long. Just like in the consumer space, applications are going to be the killer feature driving iPhone adoption.
---------------------------------------------
You talk a good game but the likelyhood of Apple gets FIPS is a joke. They can't keep the iPhone from being jailbroke 1 week after each OS update. Trust me it's a huge issue and provides a means to disable ActiveSync policy.
Your other phantom solution is how Apple will improve security / management. How their own platform? You better bet it will have the same server and CAL costs as RIM's solution. Apple is tied to Microsoft's hip - they need Exchange ActiveSync or it won't function. The issue is EAS alone doesn't provide half the policy BES does. Even with Exchange 2010 it's not close. Last I looked there is no less then 10 EAS based management solutions that support iPhone - none of them match Blackberry's solution and their cost is 2x the cost of our current BES CAL. So what will we gain? iPhones with entertainment and users downloading crap?
The other issue is Apple controls all Application deployment. We want to control that which we can do through BES. No need for Apple, approval etc. We also control how / when we deploy said applications.
In the post Madoff world there is a growing need to supervise SMS (or disable it) Apple doesn't provide that - hopefully the next OS / model will.
Which brings my last point - Apple just wants you to upgrade which is fine for consumers but we're not about to upgrade our mobile deployment yearly. Presently we get 3 years per device. They also have little to no enterprise support in place. They actually suggested to go to the nearest Apple store. Cute.
We don't support iPhone, don't allow personal liable devices and it's likely not going to change anytime soon.