Palm's business model is what doomed them. You cannot build a profitable hardware/software platform unless you sell millions of units annually. I can't even begin to imagine what Palm's break-even is. How in the heck is Palm going to do this in a market crowded with other vertically integrated competitors like Apple and RIM and horizontal players like Microsoft and Google? Google's mobile handset division is going to find itself in the same mess if they are not careful. The handset manufactures, that license Android, will ensure Google looses money on every handset they sell. In any case, the executives at Palm really need to go back to business school...
I still do that, on my Clie. Calendar, contacts, and some apps.
Too bad, and Sony suddenly discontinued their excellent Clie line. People can still write 68k code on Palms; it makes for a good hobby platform.
Totally. I had/have the NZ90, it's still edge. In fact when the iPhone launched i thought "nice, but except for the phone bit I had something just as good in 2002", a full five years before.
When Sony dropped the Clie range stating "convergence, focusing on Erricson phones" they never clued in what they had. And what they lost.
Did you ever get the accessory that ripped a video source direct to stick for playback on the Clie? Wish I had, gold.
For a smartphone manufacturer, there's only two strategies that will ever lead to success. Either you can be extremely popular in a small number of countries or be quite popular in a large number of countries. So far, Palm has been neither.
I can't comment on Palm's global strategy but they completely botched their UK release. Palm tried to follow Apple's (now dropped) model of carrier exclusivity. Stupidly, they chose to partner with O2 in the UK. At the time of launch, O2 was the exclusive carrier of the iPhone and so Palm had to directly compete against Apple. Palm had an uphill struggle to pull O2 marketing, floor space and subsidising away from the already successful iPhone and toward the unknown Pre.
It's impossible to tell whose decision it was but the Pre was priced to mirror the iPhone. The iPhone in the UK is both expensive upfront and has a high minimum tariff when compared the general market. O2 were able to pull this off with the iPhone because of Apple's brand strength. However, Palm has zero brand awareness in the UK and so obviously failed.
Too little, too late! 'Another one bites the dust!'
I think I saw one maybe two commercials. I mean really. Their marketing and promo stunk. Created no buzz what so ever. Thus the intial surge then the commercials stopped. Not saying that's the only reason but it is one reason.
Well, not that I know very much about how it works, but looking at Apple, RIM, MS, Verizon, many others and Palm, I'd say, going your own way and persistence are much better rewarded in the american business, than being a copy-paster.
Palm failed business plan 101. They shafted there existing Palm OS customers and their new product, the Pre, never had a clear benefit or audience and therefore no compelling reason to exist.
Palm probably thought they were taking the best hardware components from BlackBerry and iPhone and making the ultimate form factor to please everyone. Well guess what you can't please everyone, so what they ended up with was a hybrid compromise that pleased very few people.
The whacked-out ad campaigns are a function of a phone that had no targeted audience and no compelling reason to exist. Look at their competitors: RIM and iPhone have clear benefits and targeted audiences. Verizon have spent a lot of money on the Driod, and M$ are M$ so WinMo7 has a good chance.
The Rube will be heading back to the beach within 18 months and the dick-head at Elevation partners might need to take a calmative and explain to investors how they burned through hundreds of millions of their money..... Does anyone know how much cash do they burn a month? I doubt they are cash positive, so the slightly delayed Palm death watch continues .....
Palm's biggest problem with the Pre was simply that they were undercapitalized. They just didn't have the money necessary to launch the Pre on the scale necessary to really compete with Apple. (of course, the reason they were undercapitalized is all the other mistakes they made prior to the Pre).
But anyway... it looks like the Pre will be the first "iPhone killer" to bite the dust. My guess is that Symbian will be next (although that will take longer -- maybe 2 years). After that, Android. Then we'll be left with Microsoft, Apple, and RIM. My guess is those three will survive and duke it out for a long time to come.
Why do I think Android will fail and Microsoft won't? It has nothing to do with technology and everything to do with the companies involved. I think Google is fundamentally soft. They might have the money and the technology needed to compete, but they don't have the stomach for it. Microsoft has money, technology, and a killer instinct.
According to Dan Frommer the failure of Palm means Apple will soon follow down the drain.
Obviously just trying to generate traffic; the ugly side of "journalism" on the web, where the quality of what you write doesn't matter, just how many ad views you can get.
Palm was doomed years ago when they took the advice of the pundits and started licensing Palm OS to clone makers. Their fate was sealed when they allowed themselves to lose control of Palm OS, although, this was the probably inevitable outcome of their first mistake. But, after losing all credibility with developers, consumers and investors, the Pre & WebOS never had a chance. Now they are just a cautionary tale.
And a very sad tale it is. Palm OS and the devices based on it were really the spiritual ancestors of the iPhone with a simple but capable UI and navigation model focused on just getting things done as easily as possible.
My guess is that Symbian will be next (although that will take longer -- maybe 2 years). After that, Android. Then we'll be left with Microsoft, Apple, and RIM. My guess is those three will survive and duke it out for a long time to come.
That's never going to happen.
What you're effectively saying is that the only free/licensable OS will be Windows Mobile. Do you really expect Nokia and the rest of the traditional mobile industry to rally around Windows Mobile? Of course they won't. They don't want to see one company (and one competitor in many cases) with so much power.
There will always be at least two credible operating systems in that space.
I have to agree. I got a chance to play with a Pre once and was blown away by the UI. It looked like something Apple might develop 7 years from now. Very intuitive, the way it handled multi-taksing was quite remarkable.
I wouldn't be surprised if Apple makes a play for Palm.
I could see Apple buying palm for it's patents and talent.
I can't see them buying it just to get their hands on the Web OS interface.
I could see Apple buying palm for it's patents and talent.
I can't see them buying it just to get their hands on the Web OS interface.
Absolutely. Palm's patents are what would have any value for Apple. Instantly, Apple would own some critical patents to use against Nokia et al in their ongoing disputes.
Engadget had a good article last year on some of the various patents that Apple and Palm owned and could use against the other (prior to the Nokia lawsuits). Owning the Palm patents mentioned would give Apple a giant leg up against Nokia in their court cases.
The article states that Palm announced that they'd announce $300-400M instead of $1.6B. That sounds like a huge shortfall... except that the $1.6B number was for the year and the $300M was for the quarter. In other words, the two numbers aren't comparable and they didn't revise one to the other.
What you're effectively saying is that the only free/licensable OS will be Windows Mobile. Do you really expect Nokia and the rest of the traditional mobile industry to rally around Windows Mobile? Of course they won't. They don't want to see one company (and one competitor in many cases) with so much power.
There will always be at least two credible operating systems in that space.
Yes, that's basically what I'm saying. I don't see how it's so controversial -- that's what we have in the PC market. Whether the phone manufacturers like the fact that MS will be their only real option isn't really relevant. What matters is what customers (including business customers) want. In the end, I think MS will offer a product that is more appealing to customers (particularly corporate customers) than Android or Symbian.
iPhone will have the consumer market with a strong foothold in business, RIM will have their existing base that will very slowly defect over time (but it will take a long time), and Microsoft will have the corporate customers that RIM doesn't already have (and in the longer run will eventually replace RIM).
Yes, that's basically what I'm saying. I don't see how it's so controversial -- that's what we have in the PC market.
Correct. That's what we have in the PC market and that's exactly why Microsoft win this battle. The traditional phone manufacturers don't want to end up like Dell, surviving on razor thin margins. They'll do anything to avoid that situation.
Quote:
Whether the phone manufacturers like the fact that MS will be their only real option isn't really relevant. What matters is what customers (including business customers) want. In the end, I think MS will offer a product that is more appealing to customers (particularly corporate customers) than Android or Symbian.
Business and corporate customers make up a surprisingly small segment of the global market. The iPhone and Symbian have both succeeded without dominance of the business market.
And let's not forget that both Symbian and Android are open source. Even if Nokia and Google respectively decide to stop development, there's always the possibility that someone else will step in. There's no way that Microsoft will be on the only reasonable option.
Comments
I still do that, on my Clie. Calendar, contacts, and some apps.
Too bad, and Sony suddenly discontinued their excellent Clie line. People can still write 68k code on Palms; it makes for a good hobby platform.
Totally. I had/have the NZ90, it's still edge. In fact when the iPhone launched i thought "nice, but except for the phone bit I had something just as good in 2002", a full five years before.
When Sony dropped the Clie range stating "convergence, focusing on Erricson phones" they never clued in what they had. And what they lost.
Did you ever get the accessory that ripped a video source direct to stick for playback on the Clie? Wish I had, gold.
I can't comment on Palm's global strategy but they completely botched their UK release. Palm tried to follow Apple's (now dropped) model of carrier exclusivity. Stupidly, they chose to partner with O2 in the UK. At the time of launch, O2 was the exclusive carrier of the iPhone and so Palm had to directly compete against Apple. Palm had an uphill struggle to pull O2 marketing, floor space and subsidising away from the already successful iPhone and toward the unknown Pre.
It's impossible to tell whose decision it was but the Pre was priced to mirror the iPhone. The iPhone in the UK is both expensive upfront and has a high minimum tariff when compared the general market. O2 were able to pull this off with the iPhone because of Apple's brand strength. However, Palm has zero brand awareness in the UK and so obviously failed.
Too little, too late! 'Another one bites the dust!'
I think I saw one maybe two commercials. I mean really. Their marketing and promo stunk. Created no buzz what so ever. Thus the intial surge then the commercials stopped. Not saying that's the only reason but it is one reason.
Palm probably thought they were taking the best hardware components from BlackBerry and iPhone and making the ultimate form factor to please everyone. Well guess what you can't please everyone, so what they ended up with was a hybrid compromise that pleased very few people.
The whacked-out ad campaigns are a function of a phone that had no targeted audience and no compelling reason to exist. Look at their competitors: RIM and iPhone have clear benefits and targeted audiences. Verizon have spent a lot of money on the Driod, and M$ are M$ so WinMo7 has a good chance.
The Rube will be heading back to the beach within 18 months and the dick-head at Elevation partners might need to take a calmative and explain to investors how they burned through hundreds of millions of their money..... Does anyone know how much cash do they burn a month? I doubt they are cash positive, so the slightly delayed Palm death watch continues .....
But anyway... it looks like the Pre will be the first "iPhone killer" to bite the dust. My guess is that Symbian will be next (although that will take longer -- maybe 2 years). After that, Android. Then we'll be left with Microsoft, Apple, and RIM. My guess is those three will survive and duke it out for a long time to come.
Why do I think Android will fail and Microsoft won't? It has nothing to do with technology and everything to do with the companies involved. I think Google is fundamentally soft. They might have the money and the technology needed to compete, but they don't have the stomach for it. Microsoft has money, technology, and a killer instinct.
According to Dan Frommer the failure of Palm means Apple will soon follow down the drain.
Obviously just trying to generate traffic; the ugly side of "journalism" on the web, where the quality of what you write doesn't matter, just how many ad views you can get.
Palm was doomed years ago when they took the advice of the pundits and started licensing Palm OS to clone makers. Their fate was sealed when they allowed themselves to lose control of Palm OS, although, this was the probably inevitable outcome of their first mistake. But, after losing all credibility with developers, consumers and investors, the Pre & WebOS never had a chance. Now they are just a cautionary tale.
And a very sad tale it is. Palm OS and the devices based on it were really the spiritual ancestors of the iPhone with a simple but capable UI and navigation model focused on just getting things done as easily as possible.
My guess is that Symbian will be next (although that will take longer -- maybe 2 years). After that, Android. Then we'll be left with Microsoft, Apple, and RIM. My guess is those three will survive and duke it out for a long time to come.
That's never going to happen.
What you're effectively saying is that the only free/licensable OS will be Windows Mobile. Do you really expect Nokia and the rest of the traditional mobile industry to rally around Windows Mobile? Of course they won't. They don't want to see one company (and one competitor in many cases) with so much power.
There will always be at least two credible operating systems in that space.
I have to agree. I got a chance to play with a Pre once and was blown away by the UI. It looked like something Apple might develop 7 years from now. Very intuitive, the way it handled multi-taksing was quite remarkable.
I wouldn't be surprised if Apple makes a play for Palm.
I could see Apple buying palm for it's patents and talent.
I can't see them buying it just to get their hands on the Web OS interface.
I could see Apple buying palm for it's patents and talent.
I can't see them buying it just to get their hands on the Web OS interface.
Absolutely. Palm's patents are what would have any value for Apple. Instantly, Apple would own some critical patents to use against Nokia et al in their ongoing disputes.
Engadget had a good article last year on some of the various patents that Apple and Palm owned and could use against the other (prior to the Nokia lawsuits). Owning the Palm patents mentioned would give Apple a giant leg up against Nokia in their court cases.
someone should ask this guy about the killer phone:
http://www.pcworld.com/businesscente...ne_killer.html
Where Tekstud? Where Dahader?
When you mix cheap crap, bad marketing, and put in on a network that barely exists this is what you get.
That's never going to happen.
What you're effectively saying is that the only free/licensable OS will be Windows Mobile. Do you really expect Nokia and the rest of the traditional mobile industry to rally around Windows Mobile? Of course they won't. They don't want to see one company (and one competitor in many cases) with so much power.
There will always be at least two credible operating systems in that space.
Yes, that's basically what I'm saying. I don't see how it's so controversial -- that's what we have in the PC market. Whether the phone manufacturers like the fact that MS will be their only real option isn't really relevant. What matters is what customers (including business customers) want. In the end, I think MS will offer a product that is more appealing to customers (particularly corporate customers) than Android or Symbian.
iPhone will have the consumer market with a strong foothold in business, RIM will have their existing base that will very slowly defect over time (but it will take a long time), and Microsoft will have the corporate customers that RIM doesn't already have (and in the longer run will eventually replace RIM).
Yes, that's basically what I'm saying. I don't see how it's so controversial -- that's what we have in the PC market.
Correct. That's what we have in the PC market and that's exactly why Microsoft win this battle. The traditional phone manufacturers don't want to end up like Dell, surviving on razor thin margins. They'll do anything to avoid that situation.
Whether the phone manufacturers like the fact that MS will be their only real option isn't really relevant. What matters is what customers (including business customers) want. In the end, I think MS will offer a product that is more appealing to customers (particularly corporate customers) than Android or Symbian.
Business and corporate customers make up a surprisingly small segment of the global market. The iPhone and Symbian have both succeeded without dominance of the business market.
If Android or Symbian can't provide an alternative to Microsoft then someone else will step in. We've already got a situation where manufacturers are inventing their own new smartphone platforms despite the wealth of alternatives available today.
And let's not forget that both Symbian and Android are open source. Even if Nokia and Google respectively decide to stop development, there's always the possibility that someone else will step in. There's no way that Microsoft will be on the only reasonable option.