nothing I guess, its just that I bought a Mac Pro with Tiger and Final Cut Studio, 2 months before Leopard and Final Cut Studio 2 came out and I missed that boat. (Have now upgraded to Snow Leopard and Final Cut Studio 3) but I'm having problems with Final Cut Studio 3 on the Mac Pro... it keeps dropping frames and my firewire is slower (we tested it) than the usb 2. I guess these are the sorts of problems you'd expect running new software on an older machine. So this time, I want to make sure as I buy my first macbook pro that I get the latest.
But that's besides the point, I was actually just highlighting the annoyance of checking each morning on apple's website and appleinsider for that great and wonderful day that a new macbook pro appears, and all you're faced with is Ipad Ipad Ipad Ipad Ipad Ipad, and I'm really not interested in that product...
The iPad will be at the top for a while; it's new and nobody's actually seen it (except for a select really lucky few), so there is a mystique about it still. Give it a few months after it goes on sale for the hype to fade. It's a pretty new area and people are naturally excited about it.
Of course, we are all still interested in Macs, MacBooks, and all that.
Well, there's also the reason that most of these self described "tech-geeks" are simply idiots who have no idea what they are talking about.
Depends. Clearly some people know absolutely nothing, but they're too easy to criticize, so I vote we just ignore them. But then there are people who do know quite a bit about technology and have a very DIY orientation. They might be running a home-built computer with a heavily tweaked Linux distro. These are smart people who know a lot about computer technology. But they are often out of touch with the other 99.9% of the population that does not share their hobby. Those are the people I think of when I say "tech-geeks". And I realize that some of those tech-geeks do, in fact, "get" the iPad and might even buy one. But many of them don't get it, never will, but have enough familiarity with technology to mount a critique of the iPad filled with enough impressive techy-talk that they can make some people unsure of whether the iPad will be successful. These are basically the same kinds of people who scoffed at the GUI back in the 80s, saying that "real computers" have command line interfaces.
I think 5-6 million a quarter is definitely possible, but I'm kind of doubting it for the launch quarter. Producing that many iPads in the launch quarter would be monumental production mistake and risk as even Apple knows that their read on the market is imperfect. I think they are only producing about 300k to 500k iPads for the launch and will adjust from there.
After the first month, they'll have read on the production rate they'll need and be able to work out some of the initial kinks in production. If there is a huge demand, I think Apple can increase their production within a month.
We may see 5 million in Q4 during the holidays, but for the launch quarter I doubt it. I'm highly suspicious that Apple will have the iPad refresh cycle in September/October just like iPods, and will have a refreshed iPad, possibly price adjustments, in the October time frame.
For the year, I think 4-6 million is a good range if iPad is a good seller. 10m could be achievable, but I think no very probable. It all depends on how fast Apple and developers get content on board, on when iPhone OS X 4.0 comes out, and lots of other things.
Depends. Clearly some people know absolutely nothing, but they're too easy to criticize, so I vote we just ignore them. But then there are people who do know quite a bit about technology and have a very DIY orientation. They might be running a home-built computer with a heavily tweaked Linux distro. These are smart people who know a lot about computer technology. But they are often out of touch with the other 99.9% of the population that does not share their hobby. Those are the people I think of when I say "tech-geeks". And I realize that some of those tech-geeks do, in fact, "get" the iPad and might even buy one. But many of them don't get it, never will, but have enough familiarity with technology to mount a critique of the iPad filled with enough impressive techy-talk that they can make some people unsure of whether the iPad will be successful. These are basically the same kinds of people who scoffed at the GUI back in the 80s, saying that "real computers" have command line interfaces.
I mostly agree with you except for this bit: "These are smart people who know a lot about computer technology."
Most of them are at most of average intelligence. But people of average intelligence can learn the jargon of a field and often sound like they now what they are talking about, even when they don't have a real understanding of it. The iPad is an excellent test for identifying these people as poseurs.
I have a slightly different take on this-- that there are various sorts of "smart", and that being smart in the computer science sense may actually inhibit being smart in several other senses.
The centrality of computing in our culture has rendered this very particular kind of smart-- skilled in a specialized area of highly codified abstract reasoning-- as synecdoche for the general idea of intelligence. However, there's no particular reason to expect people with high levels of technological facility to be particularly insightful about matters of culture, language, history, art, broad trends in what people find desirable, or the actual status and mechanisms of technology as it reverberates through all of those.
In fact, and in my experience, being really really good at coding seems to impart a certain amount of tunnel vision and stunted imagination when it comes to, well, anything that isn't highly codified abstract reasoning, which is to say most of what makes life satisfying to most people.
So that this current elevation of a very specific species of smart is actually to the detriment of an older, broader idea of what it means to be intelligent.
All of which is to say that technophiles on the web may be, in fact, quite bright in their way, but the very last people you would want to consult when it comes to discerning an emotional response like "desirability", since it involves a messy and unquantifiable mix of simple human reactions that this type generally regards as "stupidity."
There is so much negativity coming from tech-geeks on the web,
it doesn't have Flash so it can't be true.
Although the geeks are right about one thing. Who cares how many have been built and shipped to stores if they don't sell.
So rather than get all giddy over production numbers, save it for the sales reports.
as for your markets comments. You are correct about the potential, but the catch is that it's all in content that Apple doesn't control. They don't publish the textbooks, the games, the health care software etc.
so those markets aren't really viable until the content is there.
I don't think 5 million will be enough. Will physical Apple stores be taking pre-orders? I imagine the site will crash or be painfully slow tomorrow with the high demand, or they will stop taking orders once they reach a certain number.
Comments
What's wrong with the 'old' Macbook Pro?
nothing I guess, its just that I bought a Mac Pro with Tiger and Final Cut Studio, 2 months before Leopard and Final Cut Studio 2 came out and I missed that boat. (Have now upgraded to Snow Leopard and Final Cut Studio 3) but I'm having problems with Final Cut Studio 3 on the Mac Pro... it keeps dropping frames and my firewire is slower (we tested it) than the usb 2. I guess these are the sorts of problems you'd expect running new software on an older machine. So this time, I want to make sure as I buy my first macbook pro that I get the latest.
But that's besides the point, I was actually just highlighting the annoyance of checking each morning on apple's website and appleinsider for that great and wonderful day that a new macbook pro appears, and all you're faced with is Ipad Ipad Ipad Ipad Ipad Ipad, and I'm really not interested in that product...
Of course, we are all still interested in Macs, MacBooks, and all that.
Well, there's also the reason that most of these self described "tech-geeks" are simply idiots who have no idea what they are talking about.
Depends. Clearly some people know absolutely nothing, but they're too easy to criticize, so I vote we just ignore them. But then there are people who do know quite a bit about technology and have a very DIY orientation. They might be running a home-built computer with a heavily tweaked Linux distro. These are smart people who know a lot about computer technology. But they are often out of touch with the other 99.9% of the population that does not share their hobby. Those are the people I think of when I say "tech-geeks". And I realize that some of those tech-geeks do, in fact, "get" the iPad and might even buy one. But many of them don't get it, never will, but have enough familiarity with technology to mount a critique of the iPad filled with enough impressive techy-talk that they can make some people unsure of whether the iPad will be successful. These are basically the same kinds of people who scoffed at the GUI back in the 80s, saying that "real computers" have command line interfaces.
They use years' old technology. Unfortunately, they also cost as much as computers did years ago. They ain't worth it.
Yeah, that's why they're such a bust.
Not.
After the first month, they'll have read on the production rate they'll need and be able to work out some of the initial kinks in production. If there is a huge demand, I think Apple can increase their production within a month.
We may see 5 million in Q4 during the holidays, but for the launch quarter I doubt it. I'm highly suspicious that Apple will have the iPad refresh cycle in September/October just like iPods, and will have a refreshed iPad, possibly price adjustments, in the October time frame.
For the year, I think 4-6 million is a good range if iPad is a good seller. 10m could be achievable, but I think no very probable. It all depends on how fast Apple and developers get content on board, on when iPhone OS X 4.0 comes out, and lots of other things.
Depends. Clearly some people know absolutely nothing, but they're too easy to criticize, so I vote we just ignore them. But then there are people who do know quite a bit about technology and have a very DIY orientation. They might be running a home-built computer with a heavily tweaked Linux distro. These are smart people who know a lot about computer technology. But they are often out of touch with the other 99.9% of the population that does not share their hobby. Those are the people I think of when I say "tech-geeks". And I realize that some of those tech-geeks do, in fact, "get" the iPad and might even buy one. But many of them don't get it, never will, but have enough familiarity with technology to mount a critique of the iPad filled with enough impressive techy-talk that they can make some people unsure of whether the iPad will be successful. These are basically the same kinds of people who scoffed at the GUI back in the 80s, saying that "real computers" have command line interfaces.
I mostly agree with you except for this bit: "These are smart people who know a lot about computer technology."
Most of them are at most of average intelligence. But people of average intelligence can learn the jargon of a field and often sound like they now what they are talking about, even when they don't have a real understanding of it. The iPad is an excellent test for identifying these people as poseurs.
The centrality of computing in our culture has rendered this very particular kind of smart-- skilled in a specialized area of highly codified abstract reasoning-- as synecdoche for the general idea of intelligence. However, there's no particular reason to expect people with high levels of technological facility to be particularly insightful about matters of culture, language, history, art, broad trends in what people find desirable, or the actual status and mechanisms of technology as it reverberates through all of those.
In fact, and in my experience, being really really good at coding seems to impart a certain amount of tunnel vision and stunted imagination when it comes to, well, anything that isn't highly codified abstract reasoning, which is to say most of what makes life satisfying to most people.
So that this current elevation of a very specific species of smart is actually to the detriment of an older, broader idea of what it means to be intelligent.
All of which is to say that technophiles on the web may be, in fact, quite bright in their way, but the very last people you would want to consult when it comes to discerning an emotional response like "desirability", since it involves a messy and unquantifiable mix of simple human reactions that this type generally regards as "stupidity."
There is so much negativity coming from tech-geeks on the web,
it doesn't have Flash so it can't be true.
Although the geeks are right about one thing. Who cares how many have been built and shipped to stores if they don't sell.
So rather than get all giddy over production numbers, save it for the sales reports.
as for your markets comments. You are correct about the potential, but the catch is that it's all in content that Apple doesn't control. They don't publish the textbooks, the games, the health care software etc.
so those markets aren't really viable until the content is there.