Does anyone really think that AT&T will pay Apple the same subsidy per phone if they no longer have their exclusive?
As far as one can tell by the steady ASP of iPhones and by the words of Cook and Oppenheimer, carriers in other countries (where there are multiple carriers) still are.
Apple iPhone commands a higher ASP than other smartphones in the US because Apple, not the carrier, provides marketing, retail distribution, customer and warranty service and repair for iPhone. This is not the same for other vendors. For example, in the area of distribution, Palm sells to Sprint who sells and distributes to other retailers. Apple handles this directly.
Plus Apple Stores are a retailer for the AT&T, thus, collecting fees for new activations, in the same way that Radio Shack or Best Buy or Amazon.com does. These fees may be taken account in the ASP (or they could be an offset in SGA?).
That would be a QUADRUPLING of resolution, not a doubling, wouldn't it? At least a quadrupling of pixels, though I guess resolution is named like 480, 720, 1080, not based on overall pixel count.
I don't think there will be a CDMA iPhone. I think Apple will wait until LTE is out to release it on other companies. I hope that they do release it in T-Mobile. That make more sense at this point. Why invest in CDMA when LTE is around the corner?
Even if there is an LTE phone that let's say spottily covers half the US by the end of 2010, it will need a network to fall back on when not in LTE coverage. For Verizon, that will be CDMA. And it will need the ability to fall back for a long time after 2010.
3G began implementation over 6 years ago. And today, none of the US carriers can claim 100% coverage. Do you really think LTE coverage will happen faster than that? Or that Apple would wait that long to introduce an LTE phone for Verizon (with no fall back)?
Finally, would Apple want to take the risk of introducing a phone that has both a brand new first-time ever (for Apple) LTE implementation and a brand new first-time ever (for Apple) CDMA implementation? Or would they rather take it in steps?
That would be a QUADRUPLING of resolution, not a doubling, wouldn't it? At least a quadrupling of pixels, though I guess resolution is named like 480, 720, 1080, not based on overall pixel count.
It's stated in an ambiguous way, but their statement is referring to a single axis.
There has been tons of rumors forever where people and pundits speculate about the possibility of an iPhone coming to Verizon, and other carriers in the US. And this leads me to ask a possibly stupid question.
I recall watching the SteveNote in January 2007 announcing the upcoming iPhone, and that it would be an exclusive 5 year agreement with AT&T. Perhaps I am naive or uneducated in legal matters, but if this is in fact true, then wouldn't it be impossible for Apple to release an iPhone to any other carriers until June 2012 when this 5 year period would be ending?
I don't think there will be a CDMA iPhone. I think Apple will wait until LTE is out to release it on other companies. I hope that they do release it in T-Mobile. That make more sense at this point. Why invest in CDMA when LTE is around the corner?
There is no LTE Voice standard, only data. And Verizon's LTE network won't be nationwide until 2013. Actually, even my first point doesn't matter, since a Verizon iPhone will need a fallback if their LTE network is available. And that's going to have to be CDMA.
Plus, let's keep in mind that this shouldn't be new information to Apple. Any comments about how "CDMA is a dead technology" is simply gesturing with Verizon for a better deal. Those comments are just like how Jobs once said "who wants to watch video on an iPod" only months before revealing the iPod 5G with video. CEOs are NOT going to reveal their plans to the public, and certainly not Steve Jobs. You should rarely take what he says at face value and look at the facts instead.
Any talk of a LTE-only phone without CDMA supporting Verizon is fallacy. If you believe that, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
Trust me. iPhone on Verizon is happening. In fact, sooner than expected. The tail has wagged the dog, and there's no turning back. Given the market reaction on both stocks today, the CEOs have no choice.
Apple is losing customers DAILY by not having the iPhone on Verizon. WTF is the barricade to doing this? If customers are silly enough to take a technological step backwards, buying a slower non-international version of the iPhone, then let them. Shake your head all the way to the bank, Steve.
Agreed. People don't realize how many consumers won't realize or care that their phone won't work most places outside the US anyway. Most people know nothing - or at best next to nothing - about the underlying technology of their phone. All they want to know is if it works on Verizon or not.
Um said checks with industry sources indicate the next-generation model could feature a touch panel on the back of the phone
Easiest way to detect when an "Analyst" is talking out their backside - the usability for such a "feature" would be a nightmare. Are they sure they weren't talking to an Android or Windows phone mobile system 7 (whatever!) hardware developer instead of about the iPhone?
Apple is losing customers DAILY by not having the iPhone on Verizon. WTF is the barricade to doing this? If customers are silly enough to take a technological step backwards, buying a slower non-international version of the iPhone, then let them. Shake your head all the way to the bank, Steve.
They're doing just fine without Verizon. iPhone envy is building to a head for many, many Verizon customers, and they'll probably have to wait til summer 2011, LTE iPhone 4G. They've waited this long, they can switch to AT&T, or wait a little longer.
Verizon is loosing more. AT&T (2.7 million) once again bested Verizon (2.2 million) in new subscriber adds in the 4Q - what is that, three quarters in a row? Four - a whole year? Not even the Droid could help them overtake the soon-to-be refreshed iPhone.
Who needs who more badly now? There's no AllTell hail-mary for Verizon to prop themselves up with this time (unless they go after Sprint - which would probably draw anti-trust ire).
is it possible that a Verizon iPhone for LTE could be coming sooner than we think? Just last week Verizon announced they will have 4G LTE coverage to 1/3rd of Americans this year and double that next year.
I can't wait for the "there's a map for that" ads for this!
There has been tons of rumors forever where people and pundits speculate about the possibility of an iPhone coming to Verizon, and other carriers in the US. And this leads me to ask a possibly stupid question.
I recall watching the SteveNote in January 2007 announcing the upcoming iPhone, and that it would be an exclusive 5 year agreement with AT&T. Perhaps I am naive or uneducated in legal matters, but if this is in fact true, then wouldn't it be impossible for Apple to release an iPhone to any other carriers until June 2012 when this 5 year period would be ending?
What am I missing here?
Steve never said it was five years. Both he and Randall Stephenson said it was a multi-year exclusive.
USAToday reported that it was for five years with no official source, but a year later in 2008, said that it had been renegotiated into a 3-year deal ending in 2010. It claimed the renegotiation was precipitated by Apple changing from an unsubsidized phone but data plan revenue sharing arrangement to a subsidized phone with no revenue sharing arrangement.
Yeah, it's pretty much all rumor until Steve makes it official.
That being said, I think there are a number of reasons this time it might be true, which have been articulated by other folks in the forums.
First, Apple never broadcasts what it intends to do, but does on occasion, leak news to select outlets, like the Wall Street Journal. There have been rumors since the iPhone's inception, but those have come from mostly fan sites, blogs and Wall Street analysts (who know less than the fans or the blogs). The WSJ is the first credible mainstream media outlet to announce the news and it would not have run the story without some solid sourcing.
Second, it makes sense from a business standpoint to prevent Android from establishing a beachhead on Verizon, the nation's second-largest carrier. Since Apple's push is into mobile computing, they need to eliminate or mitigate any potential threats to the iPhone OS.
Third, LTE will take a few years to be established and I don't think Apple wants to give Android another two or three years to become dominant with Verizon's customer base. There will eventually be a single model iPhone that works on both AT&T and Verizon, but that's just not possible yet. It's not a huge technical challenge to build a CDMA iPhone or next yea, a CDMA-LTE iPhone. And I think U.S. customers are used to the idea that a phone on AT&T simply doesn't work on Verizon and vice versa.
Fourth, nothing has been mentioned on what Verizon might be getting or when they might be getting it. AT&T will certainly get the next generation iPhone, but that doesn't mean that Verizon will get the same thing at the same time. AT&T's contract with Apple might for example include a clause that says Apple can make the phone available to other provides, but AT&T gets exclusive rights to it for 90 days prior and pay the existing subsidy. And maybe Verizon gets an iPhone, but maybe it's the 3GS and not the fourth generation one, or it's the fourth generation one, but without as much storage.
Maybe I'm seeing the glass as half full or my outlook is rosier than most. I would certainly love to see a Verizon iPhone this fall, but if nothing's announced by September, I'm jumping ship to AT&T for the new iPhone.
Comments
Does anyone really think that AT&T will pay Apple the same subsidy per phone if they no longer have their exclusive?
As far as one can tell by the steady ASP of iPhones and by the words of Cook and Oppenheimer, carriers in other countries (where there are multiple carriers) still are.
Apple iPhone commands a higher ASP than other smartphones in the US because Apple, not the carrier, provides marketing, retail distribution, customer and warranty service and repair for iPhone. This is not the same for other vendors. For example, in the area of distribution, Palm sells to Sprint who sells and distributes to other retailers. Apple handles this directly.
Plus Apple Stores are a retailer for the AT&T, thus, collecting fees for new activations, in the same way that Radio Shack or Best Buy or Amazon.com does. These fees may be taken account in the ASP (or they could be an offset in SGA?).
Never forget! Verizon laughed off the iPhone and then attacked it in a series of ads.
I will NEVER forget that.
Verizon is dead to me.
I don't think there will be a CDMA iPhone. I think Apple will wait until LTE is out to release it on other companies. I hope that they do release it in T-Mobile. That make more sense at this point. Why invest in CDMA when LTE is around the corner?
Even if there is an LTE phone that let's say spottily covers half the US by the end of 2010, it will need a network to fall back on when not in LTE coverage. For Verizon, that will be CDMA. And it will need the ability to fall back for a long time after 2010.
3G began implementation over 6 years ago. And today, none of the US carriers can claim 100% coverage. Do you really think LTE coverage will happen faster than that? Or that Apple would wait that long to introduce an LTE phone for Verizon (with no fall back)?
Finally, would Apple want to take the risk of introducing a phone that has both a brand new first-time ever (for Apple) LTE implementation and a brand new first-time ever (for Apple) CDMA implementation? Or would they rather take it in steps?
Does anyone really think that AT&T will pay Apple the same subsidy per phone if they no longer have their exclusive?
I do. They may subsidize the purchase of the phone but they make it back plus more on the data plans.
Have you noticed that BB phones are subsidized on all the carriers?
The Wall Street Journal isn't just some rumor site.
But if they are wrong it could seriously damage their credibility.
Too late I'd say..
WSJ also reported that the iPad would have a "facial recognition front-facing camera" and that it would be $1000
That would be a QUADRUPLING of resolution, not a doubling, wouldn't it? At least a quadrupling of pixels, though I guess resolution is named like 480, 720, 1080, not based on overall pixel count.
It's stated in an ambiguous way, but their statement is referring to a single axis.
I recall watching the SteveNote in January 2007 announcing the upcoming iPhone, and that it would be an exclusive 5 year agreement with AT&T. Perhaps I am naive or uneducated in legal matters, but if this is in fact true, then wouldn't it be impossible for Apple to release an iPhone to any other carriers until June 2012 when this 5 year period would be ending?
What am I missing here?
I don't think there will be a CDMA iPhone. I think Apple will wait until LTE is out to release it on other companies. I hope that they do release it in T-Mobile. That make more sense at this point. Why invest in CDMA when LTE is around the corner?
There is no LTE Voice standard, only data. And Verizon's LTE network won't be nationwide until 2013. Actually, even my first point doesn't matter, since a Verizon iPhone will need a fallback if their LTE network is available. And that's going to have to be CDMA.
Plus, let's keep in mind that this shouldn't be new information to Apple. Any comments about how "CDMA is a dead technology" is simply gesturing with Verizon for a better deal. Those comments are just like how Jobs once said "who wants to watch video on an iPod" only months before revealing the iPod 5G with video. CEOs are NOT going to reveal their plans to the public, and certainly not Steve Jobs. You should rarely take what he says at face value and look at the facts instead.
Any talk of a LTE-only phone without CDMA supporting Verizon is fallacy. If you believe that, I have a bridge I'd like to sell you.
I will NEVER forget that.
Verizon is dead to me.
In business, there are no friends or enemies. Only alliances made and broken.
Apple is losing customers DAILY by not having the iPhone on Verizon. WTF is the barricade to doing this? If customers are silly enough to take a technological step backwards, buying a slower non-international version of the iPhone, then let them. Shake your head all the way to the bank, Steve.
Agreed. People don't realize how many consumers won't realize or care that their phone won't work most places outside the US anyway. Most people know nothing - or at best next to nothing - about the underlying technology of their phone. All they want to know is if it works on Verizon or not.
Um said checks with industry sources indicate the next-generation model could feature a touch panel on the back of the phone
Easiest way to detect when an "Analyst" is talking out their backside - the usability for such a "feature" would be a nightmare. Are they sure they weren't talking to an Android or Windows phone mobile system 7 (whatever!) hardware developer instead of about the iPhone?
Apple is losing customers DAILY by not having the iPhone on Verizon. WTF is the barricade to doing this? If customers are silly enough to take a technological step backwards, buying a slower non-international version of the iPhone, then let them. Shake your head all the way to the bank, Steve.
They're doing just fine without Verizon. iPhone envy is building to a head for many, many Verizon customers, and they'll probably have to wait til summer 2011, LTE iPhone 4G. They've waited this long, they can switch to AT&T, or wait a little longer.
Apple is losing customers DAILY
Verizon is loosing more. AT&T (2.7 million) once again bested Verizon (2.2 million) in new subscriber adds in the 4Q - what is that, three quarters in a row? Four - a whole year? Not even the Droid could help them overtake the soon-to-be refreshed iPhone.
http://www.phonearena.com/htmls/Moto...e-a_10039.html
Who needs who more badly now? There's no AllTell hail-mary for Verizon to prop themselves up with this time (unless they go after Sprint - which would probably draw anti-trust ire).
is it possible that a Verizon iPhone for LTE could be coming sooner than we think? Just last week Verizon announced they will have 4G LTE coverage to 1/3rd of Americans this year and double that next year.
I can't wait for the "there's a map for that" ads for this!
There has been tons of rumors forever where people and pundits speculate about the possibility of an iPhone coming to Verizon, and other carriers in the US. And this leads me to ask a possibly stupid question.
I recall watching the SteveNote in January 2007 announcing the upcoming iPhone, and that it would be an exclusive 5 year agreement with AT&T. Perhaps I am naive or uneducated in legal matters, but if this is in fact true, then wouldn't it be impossible for Apple to release an iPhone to any other carriers until June 2012 when this 5 year period would be ending?
What am I missing here?
Steve never said it was five years. Both he and Randall Stephenson said it was a multi-year exclusive.
USAToday reported that it was for five years with no official source, but a year later in 2008, said that it had been renegotiated into a 3-year deal ending in 2010. It claimed the renegotiation was precipitated by Apple changing from an unsubsidized phone but data plan revenue sharing arrangement to a subsidized phone with no revenue sharing arrangement.
wouldn't it be impossible for Apple to release an iPhone to any other carriers until June 2012 when this 5 year period would be ending?
What am I missing here?
Nothing.
You are on a rumors site after all and Apple is Doomed? unless they capitulate to Verizon
That being said, I think there are a number of reasons this time it might be true, which have been articulated by other folks in the forums.
First, Apple never broadcasts what it intends to do, but does on occasion, leak news to select outlets, like the Wall Street Journal. There have been rumors since the iPhone's inception, but those have come from mostly fan sites, blogs and Wall Street analysts (who know less than the fans or the blogs). The WSJ is the first credible mainstream media outlet to announce the news and it would not have run the story without some solid sourcing.
Second, it makes sense from a business standpoint to prevent Android from establishing a beachhead on Verizon, the nation's second-largest carrier. Since Apple's push is into mobile computing, they need to eliminate or mitigate any potential threats to the iPhone OS.
Third, LTE will take a few years to be established and I don't think Apple wants to give Android another two or three years to become dominant with Verizon's customer base. There will eventually be a single model iPhone that works on both AT&T and Verizon, but that's just not possible yet. It's not a huge technical challenge to build a CDMA iPhone or next yea, a CDMA-LTE iPhone. And I think U.S. customers are used to the idea that a phone on AT&T simply doesn't work on Verizon and vice versa.
Fourth, nothing has been mentioned on what Verizon might be getting or when they might be getting it. AT&T will certainly get the next generation iPhone, but that doesn't mean that Verizon will get the same thing at the same time. AT&T's contract with Apple might for example include a clause that says Apple can make the phone available to other provides, but AT&T gets exclusive rights to it for 90 days prior and pay the existing subsidy. And maybe Verizon gets an iPhone, but maybe it's the 3GS and not the fourth generation one, or it's the fourth generation one, but without as much storage.
Maybe I'm seeing the glass as half full or my outlook is rosier than most. I would certainly love to see a Verizon iPhone this fall, but if nothing's announced by September, I'm jumping ship to AT&T for the new iPhone.