Strong interest in Apple iPad expected to produce 7M first-year sales
A new survey of 2,500 consumers found that a large number -- 21 percent -- are interested in purchasing an iPad, which has led one prominent analyst to project 7 million sales of Apple's new device in its first 12 months on the market.
The AlphaWise study released Wednesday by Morgan Stanley found that 4.6 percent of respondents indicated "extreme interest" in the iPad. Another 16.4 percent said they are "somewhat interested" in purchasing Apple's multi-touch device.
Based on these numbers, analyst Katy Huberty has forecast sales of 6 million units in 2010, and 7 million over the device's first 12 months of availability. She argued in a note to investors that the consensus forecast on Wall Street of 4 million to 5 million units is too conservative.
Still, most customers need to be sold on the concept of the iPad. The lion's share of respondents -- 65 percent -- said they are not interested at all in the iPad. In addition, 14 percent indicated they are "somewhat not interested."
The iPad also appeals to a wide range of customers, with the target market falling in the 25-34 age range. But users of all age groups are interested in the iPad, with people 35-44 taking 27 percent of interest, 45-54 garnering 22 percent, and 55-and-up with 17 percent. Almost half -- 47 percent -- of those interested in the iPad are high earners, making more than $90,000 a year.
Consumers who responded to the survey said the most common tasks they would use the iPad for are browsing and e-mail, a selection made by 90 percent of respondents. Another 67 percent said they would use it for multimedia consumption, 60 percent for print media consumption, and 57 percent for gaming.
Huberty also cautioned that cannibalization is a threat with the iPad, much like the iPhone has cut into sales of Apple's iPod. The survey found that the notebook market is most at risk, followed by the iPod touch and e-reader markets.
The survey also found that the average selling price for the iPad is $625, combined with more than $50 in accessories. The total $675 cost comes in higher than the previous $660 estimate Huberty had calculated.
Morgan Stanley has maintained its price target of $250 for AAPL stock, and continues to rate the company as "overweight."
RBC Capital Markets
Also Wednesday, analyst Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets issued a note to investors in which he said Tuesday's MacBook Pro refresh only further solidifies Apple's iPad as the company's entry-level portable PC. He noted that Apple left its MacBook Pro pricing largely unchanged, which means the iPad is the only counter the Mac maker has for the growing netbook market.
"Apple is betting iPad's form factor, engineering, design and rich interactive content experience, with Apple's brand, can create and lead a new portable computing metaphor where Apple has first mover advantage (product, install base, content/apps momentum)," Abramsky wrote.
The analyst said he expects future versions of the iPad to add features that will increase its "allure and competitive differentiation," such as iPad-desktop connectivity, a camera, and cloud integration.
Like Huberty, Abramsky cautioned that there is a risk of cannibalization of the MacBook line with Apple's iPad as the device makes inroads in the netbook market. But if the iPad begins to address the global home PC market, which sells more than 150 million units a year, it carries even greater potential for Apple.
The AlphaWise study released Wednesday by Morgan Stanley found that 4.6 percent of respondents indicated "extreme interest" in the iPad. Another 16.4 percent said they are "somewhat interested" in purchasing Apple's multi-touch device.
Based on these numbers, analyst Katy Huberty has forecast sales of 6 million units in 2010, and 7 million over the device's first 12 months of availability. She argued in a note to investors that the consensus forecast on Wall Street of 4 million to 5 million units is too conservative.
Still, most customers need to be sold on the concept of the iPad. The lion's share of respondents -- 65 percent -- said they are not interested at all in the iPad. In addition, 14 percent indicated they are "somewhat not interested."
The iPad also appeals to a wide range of customers, with the target market falling in the 25-34 age range. But users of all age groups are interested in the iPad, with people 35-44 taking 27 percent of interest, 45-54 garnering 22 percent, and 55-and-up with 17 percent. Almost half -- 47 percent -- of those interested in the iPad are high earners, making more than $90,000 a year.
Consumers who responded to the survey said the most common tasks they would use the iPad for are browsing and e-mail, a selection made by 90 percent of respondents. Another 67 percent said they would use it for multimedia consumption, 60 percent for print media consumption, and 57 percent for gaming.
Huberty also cautioned that cannibalization is a threat with the iPad, much like the iPhone has cut into sales of Apple's iPod. The survey found that the notebook market is most at risk, followed by the iPod touch and e-reader markets.
The survey also found that the average selling price for the iPad is $625, combined with more than $50 in accessories. The total $675 cost comes in higher than the previous $660 estimate Huberty had calculated.
Morgan Stanley has maintained its price target of $250 for AAPL stock, and continues to rate the company as "overweight."
RBC Capital Markets
Also Wednesday, analyst Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets issued a note to investors in which he said Tuesday's MacBook Pro refresh only further solidifies Apple's iPad as the company's entry-level portable PC. He noted that Apple left its MacBook Pro pricing largely unchanged, which means the iPad is the only counter the Mac maker has for the growing netbook market.
"Apple is betting iPad's form factor, engineering, design and rich interactive content experience, with Apple's brand, can create and lead a new portable computing metaphor where Apple has first mover advantage (product, install base, content/apps momentum)," Abramsky wrote.
The analyst said he expects future versions of the iPad to add features that will increase its "allure and competitive differentiation," such as iPad-desktop connectivity, a camera, and cloud integration.
Like Huberty, Abramsky cautioned that there is a risk of cannibalization of the MacBook line with Apple's iPad as the device makes inroads in the netbook market. But if the iPad begins to address the global home PC market, which sells more than 150 million units a year, it carries even greater potential for Apple.
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A new survey of 2,500 consumers found that a large number -- 21 percent -- are interested in purchasing an iPad...
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The mountain is (are) coming to Mohammed
The mountain is (are) coming to Mohammed
Let's all worship Steve. I up the ante, let's say Apple will sell 14M iPads this year. Just because I can!
The UK site is now showing late May availability for the iPad with pre-orders from 10th May, whereas until yesterday it was showing late April availability. The 3G model is still showing as late April on the US store, and WiFi models are of course available, suggesting there's no technical problem with the hardware to fix. Presumably the added month of waiting is due to there being more demand than expected in the US, supporting perhaps the higher end estimates of sales
Just wrote almost the same thing in another thread.
This beast is selling faster than the iPhone.
The UK site is now showing late May availability for the iPad with pre-orders from 10th May, whereas until yesterday it was showing late April availability. The 3G model is still showing as late April on the US store, and WiFi models are of course available, suggesting there's no technical problem with the hardware to fix. Presumably the added month of waiting is due to there being more demand than expected in the US, supporting perhaps the higher end estimates of sales
Of course there's no problem with the hardware. The firmware, and perhaps software, are desperately in need of an update to fix the WiFi issue.
There's no reason to think its a hardware problem, unless you were intentionally trying to spread more FUD.
This is a lot of sales for a product that some arrogant nutbags thought had no purpose or demographic.
This beast is selling faster than the iPhone.
And this is before the 3G version.
Dang, and I was sooooo enjoying all of the blogs and posts around the Net about the iFail.
This is a lot of sales for a product that some arrogant nutbags thought had no purpose or demographic.
This beast is selling faster than the iPhone.
We need to remind ourseleves that the geek squads, the ones who pant over processor speeds, USB ports, etc., are the extremely tiny minority. They are very loud on fourms like AppleInsider and very indignant, hateful, and dismissive. The rest of us get to thinking they might be on to something because of the shear numbers of negative posts. We need to start ignoring these posers. Their track record is dismal and they serve no useful purpose other than to annoy and pontificate their ignorance. Yesterday this poser crowd was very active on the various Mac sites viciously attacking the new MacBook updates.
And what is the geek squad response to the intitial success of the iPad? Do we even need to speculate? Nope. Their response is that the rest of us are just stupid sheep. That's all they can up with?
14% "Somewhat not interested"
Apple is (totally) doomed!?
The Mac pricing needs to come down a notch to keep this from becomming a dangerous trend for Apple long-term. For most consumers a beige box and an ipad will give the portability, but reduce Apple's $ share of the business. At least that is what I see.
On cannibalization, for me it is looking like $1345 for a new mini plus $830 for an ipad. Cheaper than either a 27" iMac (decked out) or a 15" MBP at around $2600. This will replace my 17" Core Duo MBP.
The Mac pricing needs to come down a notch to keep this from becomming a dangerous trend for Apple long-term. For most consumers a beige box and an ipad will give the portability, but reduce Apple's $ share of the business. At least that is what I see.
I think the iPad will spur interest in Mac. They slipped iWork (lite, but iWork) onto it to attract business people. Once they start enjoying an Apple product at work, well...
...They slipped iWork (lite, but iWork) onto it to attract business people...
Any major differences?
Abramsky's okay. You can continue mentioning him for the time being, but no one should be listening to Katy Huberty.
This is interesting, I wonder how the netbook market will be affected by this, I can just see folks showing off their iPads to netbook user's and possibly converting them on the spot
I think the hidden market for iPad technology is all the people with a clunky PC they use for nothing else but web and mail and have to replace every two or three years as the cost of a nerd to fix it excededs the cost of replacement. As they start seeing iPads in the wild the light bulb will go on. If Apple add the features of iPhone OS 4 and good printing over wifi from any application it is a slam dunk for these users. Perhaps there is already a larger iPad in the works for this market? This market segment hasn't even started yet.