Estimate says Apple has sold more than a million iPads

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 102
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by masternav View Post


    Like this?



    WRONG!!!!!

    WHERE THE F*** HAVE YOU FANBOIS BEEN? HP is releasing the Slate this year, Dell is releasing the Looking F***ing Glass, the iPad is officially pwned as a lame-ass wannabe - no ports, no camera, dumbed-down OS - compared to freakin' awesome hardware designs running Windows F***in' 7 and AN F***in' DROID with more than 50,000 APPS!!!!!



    YEAH!!! Wake up and smell the coffee you Cupertino Tools! Stop kissing Jobsey's A** and get a life fer crissakes!



    Whoa! I see what you mean. I feel like Luke Skywalker being seduced by the Dark side. I can so see why they respond like that though - you just shut off your higher brain functions and let your primitive brain stem take over. I even had a strong desire to drag my knuckles on the floor and thump my chest! Wow!



    Seriously have to stop doing that now - sorry guys. Hopefully some of the genuine article will show up and take up the workload. *WHEW*







    right themes, but a tad over the top



    and you forgot the "they run Flash so they are automatically better" dig and the "no App Store prison" dig





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sheff View Post


    Keep in mind that a lot of these were sold outside the US



    Probably not as many as you think. The stores have been crazy militant and getting worse with each day. First it was like 2 online for pre-orders and 2 reserves for pick up. But you could come back each day for 2 more. Then it went to 1 reserve at a time. then it was like if you have one pre-ordered you can't do a reserve. And they stopped letting you use cash or gift cards in stores (I guess cause resellers were trying that to get around name checks). Then they started limiting the ipad cases and such.



    And then it seems there's some kind of lifetime limit of 5-10 at most, which might now be down to like 2. Or at least a limit at the moment. Cause anyone wanting more than 10 this fast is likely reselling (like that gamer guy that wrote to Gizmodo cause he was cut off). They are even counting reserves and auto-cancelling them if you max out.



    I called to find out about placing a business order and I was told I can't just ask for X units but have to fill out a form that says what my business is and why we want them. And then wait at least 24 hours for it to be verified and approved. And then I can place my order. Which is understandable but also annoying at the same time.
  • Reply 42 of 102
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post


    Now that was textbook Apple bashing.



    I reread it and then read the previous posts it was so good. Seeing masternav trolling threw me for a loop.
  • Reply 43 of 102
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sheff View Post


    Keep in mind that a lot of these were sold outside the US. The states say it all: Californians sold to Asia, NY sold to Europe, Florida and Texas Sold to Latin America and Illinois could be sales to Canada. All US figures should be seen in the light of reselling these things on ebay for a $1000 not counting shipping.



    I don't believe the estimates take into account units bought and sent overseas(or Canada). I think their analysis was based on usage in the U.S. so any ipads sent to other countries would be in addition to that estimate.
  • Reply 44 of 102
    kolchakkolchak Posts: 1,398member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TheShepherd View Post


    I'm not surprised since AT&T offers no service in Wyoming and there are no Apple stores and I don't think any Best Buys either.



    AT&T shouldn't matter in regards to the number sold so far because the 3G version hasn't been released yet. I'm pretty sure store.apple.com and UPS serve Wyoming.
  • Reply 45 of 102
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I reread it and then read the previous posts it was so good. Seeing masternav trolling threw me for a loop.



    Yeah that was definitely spooky. I know it gave ME the willies!
  • Reply 46 of 102
    zindakozindako Posts: 468member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by masternav View Post


    Like this?



    WRONG!!!!!

    WHERE THE F*** HAVE YOU FANBOIS BEEN? HP is releasing the Slate this year, Dell is releasing the Looking F***ing Glass, the iPad is officially pwned as a lame-ass wannabe - no ports, no camera, dumbed-down OS - compared to freakin' awesome hardware designs running Windows F***in' 7 and AN F***in' DROID with more than 50,000 APPS!!!!!



    YEAH!!! Wake up and smell the coffee you Cupertino Tools! Stop kissing Jobsey's A** and get a life fer crissakes!



    Whoa! I see what you mean. I feel like Luke Skywalker being seduced by the Dark side. I can so see why they respond like that though - you just shut off your higher brain functions and let your primitive brain stem take over. I even had a strong desire to drag my knuckles on the floor and thump my chest! Wow!



    Seriously have to stop doing that now - sorry guys. Hopefully some of the genuine article will show up and take up the workload. *WHEW*







    ROFL, that was awesome, much better, you really got into it that time
  • Reply 47 of 102
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by masternav View Post


    Whoa! I see what you mean. I feel like Luke Skywalker being seduced by the Dark side. I can so see why they respond like that though - you just shut off your higher brain functions and let your primitive brain stem take over. I even had a strong desire to drag my knuckles on the floor and thump my chest! Wow!



    Seriously have to stop doing that now - sorry guys. Hopefully some of the genuine article will show up and take up the workload. *WHEW*







    I really appreciate your making the effort. The real Apple haters seem to be in hiding waiting for something really juicy to bring them out of the woodwork again. It's very nice of you to fill in.
  • Reply 48 of 102
    zindakozindako Posts: 468member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by masternav View Post


    Yeah that was definitely spooky. I know it gave ME the willies!



    Awesome job filling in as our daily troll, I too am wondering where the usual culprits are today, especially in a thread such as this one. I am still holding out for when the iPad clones hit the streets, things are going to get really hilarious around here.
  • Reply 49 of 102
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post


    Do they have electricity in Wyoming?



    Yes the do, and it's green (ish) power too!

    http://www.popsci.com/gadgets/articl.../energizer-cow

  • Reply 50 of 102
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kolchak View Post


    AT&T shouldn't matter in regards to the number sold so far because the 3G version hasn't been released yet. I'm pretty sure store.apple.com and UPS serve Wyoming.



    There does seem to be a correlation between low iPad sales and the absence of AT&T coverage in a state. It could be that many iPad sales are to people who have experience with iPhones (or have at least seen iPhones in person).
  • Reply 51 of 102
    paulmjohnsonpaulmjohnson Posts: 1,380member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bigdaddyp View Post


    Yes the do, and it's green (ish) power too!

    http://www.popsci.com/gadgets/articl.../energizer-cow





    That's genius!



    I wonder if the CO2 reductions from the cows producing electricity will offset the problems their methane emissions cause?
  • Reply 52 of 102
    chronsterchronster Posts: 1,894member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post


    Don't forget to factor in the -- I think it was 19 the last I saw -- returns.



    Yeah because both companies have the same resources.



    Real good idea for everyone to have compared the joojoo to the ipad
  • Reply 53 of 102
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 15,264moderator
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rob55 View Post


    Actually, they've revised their methodology numerous times because they were overestimating the numbers.



    It's still not accurate though because they only have a single solid data point, which was Apple's announcement about how many were sold, which included sales to stores. Plus in-store models will be online too.



    What they will be doing is tracking new IP addresses with the iPad user-agent. The user-agent can be used by any browser and IP addresses aren't accurate as ISPs can renew them or even someone taking an iPad between home and work will show up as at least two new users because you can't track MAC addresses. A student at uni could register 5 or more times.



    There's also the issue about the correlation between people clicking the company's adverts and the total iPad owners, which is unlikely to be steady so they can't feasibly extrapolate the data they have.



    1 million sounds like a reasonable estimate but there's no way of knowing. If on average users are switching between two wifi stations with different base IPs then the number would be closer to 750k.



    The numbers don't really serve to prove anything though. If buyers are happy with what the iPad offers them and Apple make a profit on each one then it's a successful product for everyone it concerns. Avatar is currently the highest grossing movie of all time but it doesn't make it the best movie of all time - sales alone simply don't match up to the user experience.
  • Reply 54 of 102
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by solipsism

    ? Has anyone been charged yet for the 3G version they purchased?



    I ordered my about 8:30 am on the first day and have not yet been charged.



    I was charged right the time I made my post. It's still in a hold state, but Apple has initiated the charge. That is a very good sign.
  • Reply 55 of 102
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Marvin View Post


    It's still not accurate though because they only have a single solid data point, which was Apple's announcement about how many were sold, which included sales to stores. Plus in-store models will be online too.



    What they will be doing is tracking new IP addresses with the iPad user-agent. The user-agent can be used by any browser and IP addresses aren't accurate as ISPs can renew them or even someone taking an iPad between home and work will show up as at least two new users because you can't track MAC addresses. A student at uni could register 5 or more times.



    Good point but in offsetting that is the situation where more than one iPad in a family could be registered as the same IP because of DHCP on the same router.
  • Reply 56 of 102
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I was charged right the time I made my post. It's still in a hold state, but Apple has initiated the charge. That is a very good sign.



    That's odd. Apple doesn't typically charge until the item ships.



    But even if they held the money on your card (maybe it has to do with credit limit or experience buying on the Apple Store or something), I don't understand why it's a good sign. If they placed the charge hold as soon as you placed the order, that doesn't tell you ANYTHING about whether it's ready to ship (until to changes from 'hold' to 'charged).



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mstone View Post


    Good point but in offsetting that is the situation where more than one iPad in a family could be registered as the same IP because of DHCP on the same router.



    Or 200 different iPads in Starbucks.



    The point is that they're assuming that there is some relationship between # of iPads in circulation and number of hits on the web sites they track. At that fundamental level, that's not an unreasonable assumption.



    The problem is that they don't know if it's one iPad for every 3 distinct IP addresses or 3 ipads for every 1 distinct IP addresses, so they made a guess. When Apple released some sales information (they now have 3 data points to work from - 300 K on the first day, 450 K after 5 days, and 500 K the first week), they are able to adjust the number EMPIRICALLY to give a better estimate. It just happened that they overestimated the number with their initial guess, but their new numbers should be much better because they're based on actual sales.



    For those complaining that Apple's numbers are shipments rather than sales, the difference is insignificant. Many Apple Stores are STILL sold out, but even those that have them only have a few in stock - compared to hundreds of units sold per store. So, at worst, this estimate might overestimate the total by a couple percent - well within the margin of error. The number in the channel only matters if there are enough in the channel to make a difference - and today, there are not.
  • Reply 57 of 102
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 5,043member
    For those with the Apple is Doomed tag line you should have this link as week



    http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/death_knell/



    or this one



    http://www.azillionmonkeys.com/qed/apple.html
  • Reply 58 of 102
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,757member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by chronster View Post


    Yeah because both companies have the same resources.



    Real good idea for everyone to have compared the joojoo to the ipad



    And yet . . . HP.



    http://www.engadget.com/2010/04/19/h...-the-wild-meh/



  • Reply 59 of 102
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Doctor David View Post


    The previous estimate by this same company was wrong so I wouldn't agree that they are almost always right. I would guess it's it's a decent estimate though. It's also worth noting that there is a very healthy grey market for ipads being shipped overseas that these estimates don't account for.



    Right. That was sarcasm. I don't put much credit into the 'estimates' that come out each week from various sources. \
  • Reply 60 of 102
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    Or 200 different iPads in Starbucks.



    You they could get it a lot more accurate if they disregard all Starbucks-like IP addresses since all of those devices are already going to be in the stats from their home wireless.



    But yeah we will have to wait for Apple to release the numbers to really know.



    But the fact that they are receiving a lot of hits means that it is going to be consuming a tons of web pages just like the iPhone.
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