NPD data shows Apple on pace to sell 3.2M Macs in June quarter

Posted:
in Current Mac Hardware edited January 2014
Sales of the Mac are tracking stronger than Wall Street expectations, with Apple on pace to sell as many as 3.2 million computers during the June quarter, according to new data from NPD.



NPD unit sales for April -- the first month of the June quarter -- show that domestic Mac sales were up 39 percent year over year, according to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. He now believes Mac sales will grow over 2009 between 19 percent and 23 percent.



At the current pace, Apple would sell between 3.1 million and 3.2 million Macs in the June quarter, while Wall Street consensus is 3.1 million, or 19 percent. The NPD numbers suggest that the April launch of the iPad had a minimal effect on Mac sales.



"April NPD data gives us the first sign of the degree to which the iPad cannibalizes iPod or Mac sales," Munster wrote. "From the early NPD data, it appears that the iPad has a minimal cannibalization impact on Mac sales, and it could be slightly cannibalizing iPod sales."



He noted that Apple has "successfully limited" the functionality of the iPad to ensure that it serves primarily as a content consumption device. That means consumers will still have to turn to the Mac for content creation.



But in Munster's eyes, the cannibalization of iPod sales is a good thing: The iPad has an average selling price four times higher than the iPod, and it is expected to have a significant profit margin, making any consumer transition a positive for Apple's bottom line.







NPD data shows that iPod sales were down 17 percent year over year in April, which leads to an estimate of 9 million to 10 million unit sales for the April quarter. The April sales were lower than Wall Street expectations, but represent only stateside iPod purchases. Munster noted that international iPod sales tend to have a larger mix than international Mac sales.



If Munster's projections for Mac sales are accurate, Apple would exceed last quarter, when the company sold 2.94 million Macs in the three months to start 2010. Those Mac sales were achieved without a new product launch.



This quarter, Apple launched new MacBook Pros, equipped with Intel's latest Core i7 and Core i5 processors in the high-end 15- and 17-inch models. Apple also refreshed the 13-inch MacBook Pro with an Nvidia GeForce 320M graphics processor.



Apple is expected to make further improvements to its Mac line very soon, with a leak over the weekend from Vietnam revealing a 13-inch MacBook refresh. The new hardware, which was displayed in its final packaging, included a 2.4GHz Intel Core 2 Duo, as well as the Nvidia 320M GPU.



There have also been rumors of a MacBook Air upgrade forthcoming. And the Mac Pro desktop is expected to be upgraded by June with a new model sporting Intel's latest Westmere-based hexacore chips, for a total of 12 processing cores.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 38
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    For comparison, there best Mac quarter ever was Q1-2010 for the 2009 Holiday quarter with 3.36M Macs.
  • Reply 2 of 38
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    For comparison, there best Mac quarter ever was Q1-2010 for the 2009 Holiday quarter with 3.36M Macs.



    Makes me wonder - while NPD says that the iPad isn't cannibalizing Mac sales, I suspect that it's actually INCREASING Mac sales - more visibility in the market and drawing more people into the Apple Stores.
  • Reply 3 of 38
    gmcalpingmcalpin Posts: 266member
    It'll be 3,200,001 Macs if the new Mac Pros have Lightpeak in them.
  • Reply 4 of 38
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by gmcalpin View Post


    It'll be 3,200,001 Macs if the new Mac Pros have Lightpeak in them.



    LOL Good luck with that. Is the spec even completed? Is there any HW for it on the market? When was the last time Apple was a the first to adopt a technology they didn't create?
  • Reply 5 of 38
    spotonspoton Posts: 645member
    The new MacBook Pro's with their higher screen resolutions and anti-glare screens are especially nice machines.



    I think a brand new 15" MBP for my power use and a Ubuntu 10.4 netbook for my light portable use would be a great combination.



    Ubuntu 10 is a nice jump in quality over previous versions, it's a secure OS like OS X and it uses Firefox w/plugins, Flash is available as well. The free Open Office is installed and there is even a Ubuntu Music store with 256kps mp3 files from popular music artists for 77 and 99 cents a song, like iTunes.



    Apple is passing over the low end market for laptops in favor of the iPad and Ubuntu is just moving right on in.



    I don't know whether to thank Apple or complain, guess since I don't own any AAPL I guess I'll be thankful. A Ubuntu netbook would only set me back $300-$400 for my low end use. A Ubuntu laptop would cost around $500-$600, as a MacBook would be $1000 or more and both are just about equal machines.



    Windows still sucks as usual.
  • Reply 6 of 38
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


    I don't know whether to thank Apple or complain, guess since I don't own any AAPL I guess I'll be thankful.



    Because if you owned AAPL you'd complain about record sales and a skyrocketing stock price. I think some Museum Glass® may have bonked you in the head.
  • Reply 7 of 38
    gmcalpingmcalpin Posts: 266member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    LOL Good luck with that. Is the spec even completed? Is there any HW for it on the market? When was the last time Apple was a the first to adopt a technology they didn't create?



    It's widely believed that Apple helped create Light Peak. Hardware for it doesn't really matter that much, because it can run the USB or Firewire protocol. Get a LP-to-Firewire cable, and it'll work with my existing external hard drives.



    I don't know about the spec, but they recently demoed the hardware in a laptop, so I'm thinking they're getting close.



    But no, I don't seriously expect it to be in any June Mac Pros; I'm just daydreaming.
  • Reply 8 of 38
    patspats Posts: 112member
    I think Gene needs to sharpen his pencil along with the rest of the Street. If Apple sold 2.603M in 2009 and I get 39% growth then I sell 3.618M not 3.1 to 3.2M The US sales from NPD point to a much better number then Gene will admit because the overseas sales have been better then the US. As far as iPod cannibalization Apple said in the CC they expect -7% YOY and again the world-wide sales are probably better then US but well have to wait and see.
  • Reply 9 of 38
    spotonspoton Posts: 645member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Because if owned AAPL you'd complain about record sales and a skyrocketing stock price. I think some Museum Glass® may have bonked you in the head.





    I bought Ford at $2 a share instead, hee hee.





    http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:F
  • Reply 10 of 38
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,609member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pats View Post


    I think Gene needs to sharpen his pencil along with the rest of the Street. If Apple sold 2.603M in 2009 and I get 39% growth then I sell 3.618M not 3.1 to 3.2M The US sales from NPD point to a much better number then Gene will admit because the overseas sales have been better then the US. As far as iPod cannibalization Apple said in the CC they expect -7% YOY and again the world-wide sales are probably better then US but well have to wait and see.



    Only problem is with the declining Euro the non-US sales (or profits) will be impacted by exchange rate transfer, or margin. I think I remember that Apple doesn't do any currency hedges for pricing, as I remember equipment being re-priced frequently before the USD started its last tailspin.
  • Reply 11 of 38
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by gmcalpin View Post


    It's widely believed that Apple helped create Light Peak.



    I've seen a Mac Pro used for a demo, but I've seen no evidence that Apple is in any responsible for this tech. You'd think they'd advertise it if they were.



    Quote:

    Hardware for it doesn't really matter that much, because it can run the USB or Firewire protocol. Get a LP-to-Firewire cable, and it'll work with my existing external hard drives.



    HW absolutely matters here and has absolutely no barring on LightPeak being protocol independent.



    You need a chip that can handle the LightPeak's data speeds and then you need that chip to have a port and then any cables going from the optical LightPeak to the cooper FW or USB needs to have a convertor. This last one does not exist, will be expensive and will take time for them to get made and for the prices to come down. Just look at the cost of convertors from copper-to-cooper that have existed for years. Your best will be to have a peripheral with a LightPeak port and you can then choose the most efficient protocol, but historically these will be expensive and take awhile to being common.



    There is no quick-and-easy solution to LightPeak unless Apple decides to go all in with their other products, which I don't see happening. I think your best bet to hope for USB3.0 as that is cooper, uses the same port interface and is backwards compatible with USB2.0.
  • Reply 12 of 38
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


    I bought Ford at $2 a share instead, hee hee.



    http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:F



    Nice play. I bought them in 2009, too. Not as low as you, but I've done well. My only regret is not buying Palm when they first started advertising the Pre in January 2009. I think that went up about 14x in about 5 months.
  • Reply 13 of 38
    jmmxjmmx Posts: 341member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pats View Post


    I think Gene needs to sharpen his pencil along with the rest of the Street. If Apple sold 2.603M in 2009 and I get 39% growth then I sell 3.618M not 3.1 to 3.2M The US sales from NPD point to a much better number then Gene will admit because the overseas sales have been better then the US.



    I agree with pats - the number seems almost ridiculous. If April was up almost 40%, then (assuming relatively even monthly sales) then they would need only 10% YOY for the next 2 months to make 20%. Why would it drop so precipitously? Even at 20% YOY for May + June gives you 27% YOY for the quarter ( 3.3 M). It seems to me that this would be the bottom of the range for a further estimate - still showing only 1/2 the YOY increase as April.



    Of course this is only USA sales and I guess he cannot believe that international sales will keep up. Still...
  • Reply 14 of 38
    bc kellybc kelly Posts: 148member
    .



    This "tracking data" stuff is always interesting



    But may only be telling 1/2 the Story



    If that much



    .



    Last Monday on Late Night - Letterman announced



    Switching to Mac



    .



    Audience instantly gave him Applause and Ovation



    They may have been Standing, don't know, but sounded like it



    Was a tremendous show of approval



    Dave sure had to rise - then acknowledge - before they finally stopped



    .



    THAT is some serious "tracking data"











    .







    Link to full show



    http://www.cbs.com/late_night/late_s...ault&play=true



    Is about 10 minutes in when sits at desk, following 1st commercial



    .
  • Reply 15 of 38
    patspats Posts: 112member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


    Only problem is with the declining Euro the non-US sales (or profits) will be impacted by exchange rate transfer, or margin. I think I remember that Apple doesn't do any currency hedges for pricing, as I remember equipment being re-priced frequently before the USD started its last tailspin.



    Apple hedges currency . From the 10Q



    Quote:

    Derivative Financial Instruments

    The Company uses derivatives to partially offset its business exposure to foreign currency exchange risk. The Company may enter into foreign currency forward and option contracts to offset some of the foreign exchange risk of expected future cash flows on certain forecasted revenue and cost of sales, of net investments in certain foreign subsidiaries, and on certain existing assets and liabilities. To help protect gross margins from fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, certain of the Company?s subsidiaries whose functional currency is the U.S. dollar, hedge a portion of forecasted foreign currency revenue. The Company?s subsidiaries whose functional currency is not the U.S. dollar and who sell in local currencies, may hedge a portion of forecasted inventory purchases not denominated in the subsidiaries? functional currencies. The Company typically hedges portions of its forecasted foreign currency exposure associated with revenue and inventory purchases for three to six months. To help protect the net investment in a foreign operation from adverse changes in foreign currency exchange rates, the Company may enter into foreign currency forward and option contracts to offset the changes in the carrying amounts of these investments due to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates. The Company may also enter into foreign currency forward and option contracts to partially offset the foreign currency exchange gains and losses generated by the re-measurement of certain assets and liabilities denominated in non-functional currencies. However, the Company may choose not to hedge certain foreign currency exchange exposures for a variety of reasons, including but not limited to immateriality, accounting considerations and the prohibitive economic cost of hedging particular exposures. There can be no assurance the hedges will offset more than a portion of the financial impact resulting from movements in foreign currency exchange rates.



  • Reply 16 of 38
    spotonspoton Posts: 645member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Nice play. I bought them in 2009, too. Not as low as you, but I've done well. My only regret is not buying Palm when they first started advertising the Pre in January 2009. I think that went up about 14x in about 5 months.



    I couldn't believe so many investors would fall for Rubenstein's johnny come lately clone that I didn't bother with it.



    I correctly predicted that Palm was being polished for sale, just didn't know who would buy it or why.



    Rubenstein knew of course and played HP well.
  • Reply 17 of 38
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


    I couldn't believe so many investors would fall for Rubenstein's johnny come lately clone that I didn't bother with it.



    I correctly predicted that Palm was being polished for sale, just didn't know who would buy it or why.



    Rubenstein knew of course and played HP well.



    I know Palm was gonna sink, but I figured there was time to turn a nice profit before the Pre was launched. Oddly, I forgot to actually invest. Ç'est la vie.



    I think HP is well managed so if anyone can pull WebOS into a viable tablet device I think they can.



    Some new evidence into the bidding war cropped up with weekend.
  • Reply 18 of 38
    christopher126christopher126 Posts: 4,366member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I think HP is well managed so if anyone can pull WebOS into a viable tablet device I think they can.



    I agree. Especially b/c by now, they have an iPad to copy!



    Not being critical....the first Toyota Camry was probably bought by GM for their engineers to do a 'tear-down' and a little bit of reverse engineering!



    It's easier to copy than create something from a blank sheet of paper...talking about the iPad here. Not that Apple got the mouse/UI idea from Xerox!



    Best
  • Reply 19 of 38
    eriamjheriamjh Posts: 1,662member
    Just bought a MBP i5 in April. Bought an iMac i7 in March.
  • Reply 20 of 38
    justflybobjustflybob Posts: 1,337member
    I find it mildly annoying that articles about sales continue to use terms such as "June quarter", which is in common use mostly in Europe and Australia. I think many of us here would be scratching our heads, thinking does this mean begins in June or ends in June?



    Here in the US, it is always first quarter, second quarter, etc.



    I guess Gene must work in the London office?
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