The industries growth in smartphones was about 48% last quarter, and Apple's was about 132%. That's outpacing the industries growth.
Android is made by a bunch of manufacturers, and are sold on all four US networks, when the iPhone is made in one model, and sold on one network. The numbers are hard to categorize therefor. Both RIM and Nokia have lost marketshare. That's negative growth.
All numbers are estimates. You quoted, I believe, the estimate by iSupply. The 117% is an estimate by Gartner. Don't forget that both are estimates.
As to your point, I am not aware that the headlines where all these numbers were bandied were comparing the iPhone growth with any industry average.
One Apple Insider article was all about the iPhone outpacing Motorola. That is not the result of the Gartner estimates.
The other report that Apple objected to was the Android phones outpacing the iPhone in the US. I doubt the data myself.
Neither report focused on Apple simply growing at a faster pace than the industry.
The whole point is that we get so engrossed, depending on our biases, who is ahead -- market share or growth rate. There was a time, the comparison was RIM vs iPhone. Then, it shifted to Android vs iPhone.
This is what sells for sites and other massmedia: Apple haters vs followers.
Both Nokia and RIM did lose marketshare, but if you consider sports races, it is the ranking as they step on the finish line that matters.
As to Apple not losing marketshare. This is not surprising at the moment. But consider this point, will you be able to assure that the iPhone always keep its marketshare growth when the totality of the Android phones overtake the iPhone?
Your point about the Android being in several carriers, I am fully aware of that. In fact, I use that point to argue that Apple should do the same to protect its marketshare and prolong its growth rate, especially in the US, and even worldwide.
Using your argument, the Linux OS is also free, like the Android OS, and should fare better than the iPhone. In fact, Linux based phones lost a whopping 21.5% year-over-year, during the last quarter.
Do you really think consumers care that the Android is a free OS? They too purchase a piece of hardware, that happen to contain the free Android OS. More than likely, they do not even know what OS is running their phone.
Whatever you use, worldwide, Apple is not the leader in marketshare, nor the current leader in growth rate. Respond when you can get out of that.
CGC
Android was starting off pretty small to get to this growth level. We'll see how it levels off the next couple of years. Apple also started off with a big growth rate, but with only one carrier in the US, that was bound to slow down, though it's still very high. With Android expanding the number of carriers the growth rate was bound to grow quickly, but now that they are on those carriers, will the growth rate continue at that level? I doubt it.
At any rate, Apple doesn't have to be number one, just significant enough. And so far, Apple's turning over 22% of app buyers to paid apps while Android is at 11%. That's important too.
In addition, fragmentation is a serious issue with Android. What will we see two years from now? Will the Android market look like the linux distro market? It's moving in that way, and Google will have to do something to control it or we won't be seeing Android phones after a while, but phone with the names of the GUi's put on them but the various manufacturers and phone companies.
It's already haphazard enough so that new phone are coming out with old versions of the OS, and can't run many new programs. Considering how difficult it is to upgrade Android phones, and how the upgrades lag the market, that's a problem.
..or someone who understood the philosophies behind the whole shebang. The pieces of the puzzle and the end game were clear to all who possessed vision the day they bought NEXT.
How could anyone compete...? Quite simply, they couldn't.
After Atari, AMiga And Be died, there was only one company with the knowhow and philosophies to bring UNIX to the masses.
...bring UNIX to the masses...
That says it all! Funny, I've never thought of it in that way. I'd bet that 70% of Apple users don't know what UNIX is, not to mention that they use it all the time.
That says it all! Funny, I've never thought of it in that way. I'd bet that 70% of Apple users don't know what UNIX is, not to mention that they use it all the time.
.
I never understood why users were supposed to care, and I'd wager that the number is closer to 95%.
All numbers are estimates. You quoted, I believe, the estimate by iSupply. The 117% is an estimate by Gartner. Don't forget that both are estimates.
As to your point, I am not aware that the headlines where all these numbers were bandied were comparing the iPhone growth with any industry average.
One Apple Insider article was all about the iPhone outpacing Motorola. That is not the result of the Gartner estimates.
The other report that Apple objected to was the Android phones outpacing the iPhone in the US. I doubt the data myself.
Neither report focused on Apple simply growing at a faster pace than the industry.
The whole point is that we get so engrossed, depending on our biases, who is ahead -- market share or growth rate. There was a time, the comparison was RIM vs iPhone. Then, it shifted to Android vs iPhone.
This is what sells for sites and other massmedia: Apple haters vs followers.
Both Nokia and RIM did lose marketshare, but if you consider sports races, it is the ranking as they step on the finish line that matters.
As to Apple not losing marketshare. This is not surprising at the moment. But consider this point, will you be able to assure that the iPhone always keep its marketshare growth when the totality of the Android phones overtake the iPhone?
These are neverending races.
CGC
Nokia has been sliding for several years now. RIM's growth has slowed. LG's marketshare is also down. Samsung is about even. MS's Win Mobile is going away fast, and there's no way to know if their new Win Phone 7 will catch on. Palm has no marketshare, and we'll have to see if Hp can do anything useful with them. Both Sony/Ericson and Motorola have lost big shares.
So where are we? Only the iPhone and Android based phones are showing smartphone growth. So, yes, Android has grown quickly. As I say, it's because they started with one carrier with one not very good phone (smallest carrier too!), and have expanded to all the carriers with better phones from a number of manufacturers.
I would have expected a lot of growth from all that. But where do they go from there? How much more growth will they get? Interesting that subscribers on Verizon and Sprint have said they would drop their Android phones for iPhone if thy were available on their carrier.
So what growth will Apple have if they become available on all four carriers? What will that do to Android's growth?
In every market where the iPhone went to all or several carriers they became the dominant smartphone. In Japan, on the smallest carrier, they are 72% of the smartphone market. Thats in a country that skeptics said they would never do well.
In S Korea, a country will 50 million people, they've sold over 700 thousand phones in six months, and the rare is increasing. It's the largest smartphone there now. Again, on the smaller carrier.
In China, it started off slowly, because it had no 3G, no WiFi, was selling for over $1,000, etc. But sales have moved up pretty well, and the new model is expected to do very well. Thats not with the biggest provider, which has stated recently that they want the phone.
Microsoft is pretty dead in terms of innovation. Glad to see Apple finally beat them after years of the sleezy Bill Gates.
You must be crazy, Bill Gates like him or not was an excellent business man & was the driving force behind his company that changed many things for us today.
I am the proud owner of a substantial amount of AAPL, I am very pleased to see this recent news for Apple
However you must not belittle "Sleazy comment" people for the great things that have come from the hard work of their hands.
Let us not fall victim to the same hubris that claimed Microsoft. In ten years some small or feeble company could come out of nowhere to surpass Apple. I'm just sayin', enjoy the moment, but never get complacent, Apple. Keep being hungry and never lose your vision of creating great, innovative, customer-centered products. I hope they DON'T ever have the biggest market share. That kind of dominance can easily lead to Microsoft-like complacency and fall.
If Apple stays the same company they will only get that big if they change their customer. If everyone starts demanding a high quality product then they will not end up like Microsoft. Microsoft is a slave to their partners and their partners only care about the low end because they can look at it solely as an economics problem when they cut out the high end of the market. I think the high end of the market is growing as people have been burned by buying low quality products, so it could happen.
Thats what I was trying to say, just having a larger market cap doesn't make you the "worlds largest tech company". Thats a ridiculous assertion.
Yeah it does. Apple is currently more valuable than MS. Why don't you ook up what market capitalization means.
PS: I can understand the trolls jumping on some of the threads but now they are even clogging up up the financial threads. I guess this should be expected more as Apple grows.
Thats what I was trying to say, just having a larger market cap doesn't make you the "worlds largest tech company". Thats a ridiculous assertion.
Why not? They are the largest by that metric. If you mean by number of employees then companies like Foxconn are probably larger. Market Cap is a much better metric then market share. All the market share metrics I see are like comparing the market share of a sub-compact to the market share of a luxury sudan.
I agree. This more indicates that Apple is the world's most valuable tech company. After all, what's the "size" of a company worth? Its expenses? "Large" and "great" often mean two different things to any stakeholder.
Any way you slice it, helluva job, Apple.
Also, P/E and market share are incredibly relevant, particularly in relation to each other. Apple's slightly high P/E would be problematic if they'd already saturated the market. Perhaps counterintuitively to some, 20 is a very low P/E for a company with Apple's sustainable growth record and future growth prospects as evidenced by massively improvable market share in most of its lines.
I'd call it a bargain anywhere under $400. And I believe Apple's market cap will easily exceed Exxon-Mobil's by year-end.
And what will be your counter when some other company outpaces the growth of Apple with respect to the industries growth?
Using the last year-over-year quarter growth, Android outpaced the growth of Apple iPhone (the phone component worldwide): 807% vs. 117%, respectively.
Those criticizing Apple (and Apple supporters) tend to think that Apple supporters are being inconsistent; as in this instance, we are lauding Apple growth (in share price, or market share or what have you), but seem to be saying that it isn't important when others show a growth in numbers? Apparently, Apple supporters are fickle hypocrites? Sounds like that is your feeling too, when you ask what the counter would be?
Well, it's really just the opposite. No one here is saying growth figure numbers are important when Apple shows good numbers, but they are not important when a competitor shows good numbers. On the contrary, Apple critics are constantly pointing out that Apple has a low market share comparatively and that Apple should do what others are doing (such as race to the bottom against handset makers, and license their OS against software producers). Apple supporters, as here, are consistently pointing out that it matters what is being compared to what, and how. Apple supporters are really only rejoicing at Apple gains when measured AGAINST ITSELF. That really should not be hard to comprehend. The difference is subtle, and seems to be lost on analysts, but it makes a difference nonetheless.
How can anyone with half a grain of sense really doubt that Apple is doing phenomenally compared to almost anyone else, in almost any way that things could be measured. These boards and those on similar sites are just full of stories, constantly, over the last three years about how the analysts just do not get it, still. Who is right? Oh, Apple hasn't broken 15% market share, they must be doomed!
I think several others have pointed out why this particular example, just like other examples of Apple being doomed, isn't an issue. Yes, you are right, some upstart company may come along tomorrow and surpass Apple, Apple surely must not become complacent! Yet, Apple is still looked at like some kind of upstart, like they just happened on this lucky situation yesterday, and just completely lucked out because SJ is some master of distortion and propaganda and magically, but dishonestly, convinces everyone that its cool to buy Apple products even though they represent form over function.
Good grief, Apple has been very patient and has planned well ahead, laid excellent, prescient foundations, and has executed well all along the way to get where they are today -- this has been some 12 years in the making (more if you count the NEXT years). If there is some unknown, unseen company that has been working like this so that they can surpass Apple tomorrow, then where is it? Apple is pretty good at spotting talent, spotting trends and knowing where to invest. They could buy Adobe with pocket change, but won't. Apple finds little startups we have never heard of.
So, the question remains: what company is really "outpacing" Apple in this instance? Google? They are giving their OS away for free. While MS built their wealth on their OS, Google is banking on being able to put their search business on more devices. Everything else Google has done, just as everything MS has done outside of Windows and Office, is really not helping them a great deal -- except that it just provides more places to dump their adware crap. Google is really following the MS model and inciting a race to the bottom among its hardware partners. It took MS 12 years, Google is already there. Roughly Drafted (http://roughlydrafted.com) has a recent article on this. To increase or hold their marketshare, handset makers are doing two for one deals. As others have pointed out, Apple's small marketshare earns them 1/3 of the profits of the entire industry.
So, the counters you ask for are what they always are, because Apple supporters do try to remain consistent in their own small way if you give them a little credit:
1) Apple is selling handsets primarily (not the OS), and the better comparison would be Nokia, RIM, Motorola, HTC, etc. The iPhone OS and software and other Apple service products exist to both differentiate and add value to Apple hardware products. And oh what a difference they make.
2) The iPod Touch, iPhone and iPad together represent a more unified platform, and thus a wider customer base that is more attractive to developers and that can sustain a better ecosystem of apps, than do all the extant versions and manufacturer- and carrier- customized flavors of Android. Yet, in this case, apparently the iPhone numbers for Apple the include the iPod Touch, go figure. Well, we won't include them either when being excited about the number of iPhones that Apple is selling quarter over quarter and year over year; but any discussion of OS market share SHOULD include them. Because if you look at OS-related markets, besides telephony, the iPhone OS is ahead hands down: app purchases and downloads, internet traffic.
3) As was pointed out about P/E and company growth, 807% of a little is a lot easier to achieve than 117% of a lot more. Especially since a lot of new handsets, from a variety of manufacturers, just launched on a variety of carriers. Why hadn't the Android market grown significantly in its first couple of years? Why did it take until it's third year to effectively move out of the starting gate? It's thus two or three years behind. Where's it going to go except to take further share from MS Mobile OS, Symbian and RIM? Apple isn't peaking and soon to be overtaken -- Apple has plenty of room to grow and is about to launch a new model and a new version of the OS.
I'll consider it, but I'm changing the terms of the wager. Whoever (which means both of us) does the wager can't post for a year during the wager and whoever loses the wager can't post for a year. And no, you can't create alternate users to get out of this That ought to keep you happy... right, troll? Of course, this means that neither you or I can post and create comments about anything on this site, and the world will be happier for it.
So, the iPhone I'm betting is going to be the dominant one in a year or two. Just simply because it's the superior platform and its development tools are unrivaled. Of course, we won't even know whether you or I abided by the rules of the wager, so this whole bet could very well be moot
Unless you want to stick to it, and solemnly swear that you'll agree to abide by the rules of the wager (since it's a 2 way street), or ban yourself from these forums
But we already knew the answer would be truthfully "no" from you. And from me, your friendly anti-troll commenter, I will swear if you do
Oh BTW, this posting limitation might as well apply to all the other trolls too if I take this wager
Whoever posted about extremeskater having a stroke... that was hilarious.
I never understood why users were supposed to care, and I'd wager that the number is closer to 95%.
Nope, have to disagree there.
Apple have the 'loyal' users (not the best description) that are a huge percentage, albeit the PC to Mac group is swelling the ranks. Almost all 'long term' users are fully aware of UNIX, as aware as the Intel switch and OS X. There are millions of we older 'wiser' users still in the installed user base.
And we couldn't be happier BTW
EDIT: well maybe a little bit happier - richer, more wise or both?
Comments
The industries growth in smartphones was about 48% last quarter, and Apple's was about 132%. That's outpacing the industries growth.
Android is made by a bunch of manufacturers, and are sold on all four US networks, when the iPhone is made in one model, and sold on one network. The numbers are hard to categorize therefor. Both RIM and Nokia have lost marketshare. That's negative growth.
All numbers are estimates. You quoted, I believe, the estimate by iSupply. The 117% is an estimate by Gartner. Don't forget that both are estimates.
As to your point, I am not aware that the headlines where all these numbers were bandied were comparing the iPhone growth with any industry average.
One Apple Insider article was all about the iPhone outpacing Motorola. That is not the result of the Gartner estimates.
The other report that Apple objected to was the Android phones outpacing the iPhone in the US. I doubt the data myself.
Neither report focused on Apple simply growing at a faster pace than the industry.
The whole point is that we get so engrossed, depending on our biases, who is ahead -- market share or growth rate. There was a time, the comparison was RIM vs iPhone. Then, it shifted to Android vs iPhone.
This is what sells for sites and other massmedia: Apple haters vs followers.
Both Nokia and RIM did lose marketshare, but if you consider sports races, it is the ranking as they step on the finish line that matters.
As to Apple not losing marketshare. This is not surprising at the moment. But consider this point, will you be able to assure that the iPhone always keep its marketshare growth when the totality of the Android phones overtake the iPhone?
Your point about the Android being in several carriers, I am fully aware of that. In fact, I use that point to argue that Apple should do the same to protect its marketshare and prolong its growth rate, especially in the US, and even worldwide.
These are neverending races.
CGC
Cool story bro, let me know when you start writing non-fiction.
Funny?
Using your argument, the Linux OS is also free, like the Android OS, and should fare better than the iPhone. In fact, Linux based phones lost a whopping 21.5% year-over-year, during the last quarter.
Do you really think consumers care that the Android is a free OS? They too purchase a piece of hardware, that happen to contain the free Android OS. More than likely, they do not even know what OS is running their phone.
Whatever you use, worldwide, Apple is not the leader in marketshare, nor the current leader in growth rate. Respond when you can get out of that.
CGC
Android was starting off pretty small to get to this growth level. We'll see how it levels off the next couple of years. Apple also started off with a big growth rate, but with only one carrier in the US, that was bound to slow down, though it's still very high. With Android expanding the number of carriers the growth rate was bound to grow quickly, but now that they are on those carriers, will the growth rate continue at that level? I doubt it.
At any rate, Apple doesn't have to be number one, just significant enough. And so far, Apple's turning over 22% of app buyers to paid apps while Android is at 11%. That's important too.
In addition, fragmentation is a serious issue with Android. What will we see two years from now? Will the Android market look like the linux distro market? It's moving in that way, and Google will have to do something to control it or we won't be seeing Android phones after a while, but phone with the names of the GUi's put on them but the various manufacturers and phone companies.
It's already haphazard enough so that new phone are coming out with old versions of the OS, and can't run many new programs. Considering how difficult it is to upgrade Android phones, and how the upgrades lag the market, that's a problem.
Lemon Bon Bon.
It's already haphazard enough so that new phone are coming out with old versions of the OS, and can't run many new programs.
As a programer, I wouldn't dream of writing software for Android for that reason alone.
..or someone who understood the philosophies behind the whole shebang. The pieces of the puzzle and the end game were clear to all who possessed vision the day they bought NEXT.
How could anyone compete...? Quite simply, they couldn't.
After Atari, AMiga And Be died, there was only one company with the knowhow and philosophies to bring UNIX to the masses.
...bring UNIX to the masses...
That says it all! Funny, I've never thought of it in that way. I'd bet that 70% of Apple users don't know what UNIX is, not to mention that they use it all the time.
.
...bring UNIX to the masses...
That says it all! Funny, I've never thought of it in that way. I'd bet that 70% of Apple users don't know what UNIX is, not to mention that they use it all the time.
.
I never understood why users were supposed to care, and I'd wager that the number is closer to 95%.
All numbers are estimates. You quoted, I believe, the estimate by iSupply. The 117% is an estimate by Gartner. Don't forget that both are estimates.
As to your point, I am not aware that the headlines where all these numbers were bandied were comparing the iPhone growth with any industry average.
One Apple Insider article was all about the iPhone outpacing Motorola. That is not the result of the Gartner estimates.
The other report that Apple objected to was the Android phones outpacing the iPhone in the US. I doubt the data myself.
Neither report focused on Apple simply growing at a faster pace than the industry.
The whole point is that we get so engrossed, depending on our biases, who is ahead -- market share or growth rate. There was a time, the comparison was RIM vs iPhone. Then, it shifted to Android vs iPhone.
This is what sells for sites and other massmedia: Apple haters vs followers.
Both Nokia and RIM did lose marketshare, but if you consider sports races, it is the ranking as they step on the finish line that matters.
As to Apple not losing marketshare. This is not surprising at the moment. But consider this point, will you be able to assure that the iPhone always keep its marketshare growth when the totality of the Android phones overtake the iPhone?
These are neverending races.
CGC
Nokia has been sliding for several years now. RIM's growth has slowed. LG's marketshare is also down. Samsung is about even. MS's Win Mobile is going away fast, and there's no way to know if their new Win Phone 7 will catch on. Palm has no marketshare, and we'll have to see if Hp can do anything useful with them. Both Sony/Ericson and Motorola have lost big shares.
So where are we? Only the iPhone and Android based phones are showing smartphone growth. So, yes, Android has grown quickly. As I say, it's because they started with one carrier with one not very good phone (smallest carrier too!), and have expanded to all the carriers with better phones from a number of manufacturers.
I would have expected a lot of growth from all that. But where do they go from there? How much more growth will they get? Interesting that subscribers on Verizon and Sprint have said they would drop their Android phones for iPhone if thy were available on their carrier.
So what growth will Apple have if they become available on all four carriers? What will that do to Android's growth?
In every market where the iPhone went to all or several carriers they became the dominant smartphone. In Japan, on the smallest carrier, they are 72% of the smartphone market. Thats in a country that skeptics said they would never do well.
In S Korea, a country will 50 million people, they've sold over 700 thousand phones in six months, and the rare is increasing. It's the largest smartphone there now. Again, on the smaller carrier.
In China, it started off slowly, because it had no 3G, no WiFi, was selling for over $1,000, etc. But sales have moved up pretty well, and the new model is expected to do very well. Thats not with the biggest provider, which has stated recently that they want the phone.
So, we'll see.
Microsoft is pretty dead in terms of innovation. Glad to see Apple finally beat them after years of the sleezy Bill Gates.
You must be crazy, Bill Gates like him or not was an excellent business man & was the driving force behind his company that changed many things for us today.
I am the proud owner of a substantial amount of AAPL, I am very pleased to see this recent news for Apple
However you must not belittle "Sleazy comment" people for the great things that have come from the hard work of their hands.
hardware is irrelevant when he is talking about OS share
You got a star from solipsism!
CGC
If we're talking about market cap at the end of today's trading day, then Apple is larger than MS.
Apple $222.1 billion
MS $219.2 billion.
Thats what I was trying to say, just having a larger market cap doesn't make you the "worlds largest tech company". Thats a ridiculous assertion.
Let us not fall victim to the same hubris that claimed Microsoft. In ten years some small or feeble company could come out of nowhere to surpass Apple. I'm just sayin', enjoy the moment, but never get complacent, Apple. Keep being hungry and never lose your vision of creating great, innovative, customer-centered products. I hope they DON'T ever have the biggest market share. That kind of dominance can easily lead to Microsoft-like complacency and fall.
If Apple stays the same company they will only get that big if they change their customer. If everyone starts demanding a high quality product then they will not end up like Microsoft. Microsoft is a slave to their partners and their partners only care about the low end because they can look at it solely as an economics problem when they cut out the high end of the market. I think the high end of the market is growing as people have been burned by buying low quality products, so it could happen.
Thats what I was trying to say, just having a larger market cap doesn't make you the "worlds largest tech company". Thats a ridiculous assertion.
Yeah it does. Apple is currently more valuable than MS. Why don't you ook up what market capitalization means.
PS: I can understand the trolls jumping on some of the threads but now they are even clogging up up the financial threads. I guess this should be expected more as Apple grows.
Thats what I was trying to say, just having a larger market cap doesn't make you the "worlds largest tech company". Thats a ridiculous assertion.
Why not? They are the largest by that metric. If you mean by number of employees then companies like Foxconn are probably larger. Market Cap is a much better metric then market share. All the market share metrics I see are like comparing the market share of a sub-compact to the market share of a luxury sudan.
Oh AI, why must you always jump the gun? This is only market caps we are talking about here, they are NOT the largest tech company out there.
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Microsoft+Apple
I agree. This more indicates that Apple is the world's most valuable tech company. After all, what's the "size" of a company worth? Its expenses? "Large" and "great" often mean two different things to any stakeholder.
Any way you slice it, helluva job, Apple.
Also, P/E and market share are incredibly relevant, particularly in relation to each other. Apple's slightly high P/E would be problematic if they'd already saturated the market. Perhaps counterintuitively to some, 20 is a very low P/E for a company with Apple's sustainable growth record and future growth prospects as evidenced by massively improvable market share in most of its lines.
I'd call it a bargain anywhere under $400. And I believe Apple's market cap will easily exceed Exxon-Mobil's by year-end.
And what will be your counter when some other company outpaces the growth of Apple with respect to the industries growth?
Using the last year-over-year quarter growth, Android outpaced the growth of Apple iPhone (the phone component worldwide): 807% vs. 117%, respectively.
Those criticizing Apple (and Apple supporters) tend to think that Apple supporters are being inconsistent; as in this instance, we are lauding Apple growth (in share price, or market share or what have you), but seem to be saying that it isn't important when others show a growth in numbers? Apparently, Apple supporters are fickle hypocrites? Sounds like that is your feeling too, when you ask what the counter would be?
Well, it's really just the opposite. No one here is saying growth figure numbers are important when Apple shows good numbers, but they are not important when a competitor shows good numbers. On the contrary, Apple critics are constantly pointing out that Apple has a low market share comparatively and that Apple should do what others are doing (such as race to the bottom against handset makers, and license their OS against software producers). Apple supporters, as here, are consistently pointing out that it matters what is being compared to what, and how. Apple supporters are really only rejoicing at Apple gains when measured AGAINST ITSELF. That really should not be hard to comprehend. The difference is subtle, and seems to be lost on analysts, but it makes a difference nonetheless.
How can anyone with half a grain of sense really doubt that Apple is doing phenomenally compared to almost anyone else, in almost any way that things could be measured. These boards and those on similar sites are just full of stories, constantly, over the last three years about how the analysts just do not get it, still. Who is right? Oh, Apple hasn't broken 15% market share, they must be doomed!
I think several others have pointed out why this particular example, just like other examples of Apple being doomed, isn't an issue. Yes, you are right, some upstart company may come along tomorrow and surpass Apple, Apple surely must not become complacent! Yet, Apple is still looked at like some kind of upstart, like they just happened on this lucky situation yesterday, and just completely lucked out because SJ is some master of distortion and propaganda and magically, but dishonestly, convinces everyone that its cool to buy Apple products even though they represent form over function.
Good grief, Apple has been very patient and has planned well ahead, laid excellent, prescient foundations, and has executed well all along the way to get where they are today -- this has been some 12 years in the making (more if you count the NEXT years). If there is some unknown, unseen company that has been working like this so that they can surpass Apple tomorrow, then where is it? Apple is pretty good at spotting talent, spotting trends and knowing where to invest. They could buy Adobe with pocket change, but won't. Apple finds little startups we have never heard of.
So, the question remains: what company is really "outpacing" Apple in this instance? Google? They are giving their OS away for free. While MS built their wealth on their OS, Google is banking on being able to put their search business on more devices. Everything else Google has done, just as everything MS has done outside of Windows and Office, is really not helping them a great deal -- except that it just provides more places to dump their adware crap. Google is really following the MS model and inciting a race to the bottom among its hardware partners. It took MS 12 years, Google is already there. Roughly Drafted (http://roughlydrafted.com) has a recent article on this. To increase or hold their marketshare, handset makers are doing two for one deals. As others have pointed out, Apple's small marketshare earns them 1/3 of the profits of the entire industry.
So, the counters you ask for are what they always are, because Apple supporters do try to remain consistent in their own small way if you give them a little credit:
1) Apple is selling handsets primarily (not the OS), and the better comparison would be Nokia, RIM, Motorola, HTC, etc. The iPhone OS and software and other Apple service products exist to both differentiate and add value to Apple hardware products. And oh what a difference they make.
2) The iPod Touch, iPhone and iPad together represent a more unified platform, and thus a wider customer base that is more attractive to developers and that can sustain a better ecosystem of apps, than do all the extant versions and manufacturer- and carrier- customized flavors of Android. Yet, in this case, apparently the iPhone numbers for Apple the include the iPod Touch, go figure. Well, we won't include them either when being excited about the number of iPhones that Apple is selling quarter over quarter and year over year; but any discussion of OS market share SHOULD include them. Because if you look at OS-related markets, besides telephony, the iPhone OS is ahead hands down: app purchases and downloads, internet traffic.
3) As was pointed out about P/E and company growth, 807% of a little is a lot easier to achieve than 117% of a lot more. Especially since a lot of new handsets, from a variety of manufacturers, just launched on a variety of carriers. Why hadn't the Android market grown significantly in its first couple of years? Why did it take until it's third year to effectively move out of the starting gate? It's thus two or three years behind. Where's it going to go except to take further share from MS Mobile OS, Symbian and RIM? Apple isn't peaking and soon to be overtaken -- Apple has plenty of room to grow and is about to launch a new model and a new version of the OS.
consider my wager.
I'll consider it, but I'm changing the terms of the wager. Whoever (which means both of us) does the wager can't post for a year during the wager and whoever loses the wager can't post for a year. And no, you can't create alternate users to get out of this
So, the iPhone I'm betting is going to be the dominant one in a year or two. Just simply because it's the superior platform and its development tools are unrivaled. Of course, we won't even know whether you or I abided by the rules of the wager, so this whole bet could very well be moot
Unless you want to stick to it, and solemnly swear that you'll agree to abide by the rules of the wager (since it's a 2 way street), or ban yourself from these forums
But we already knew the answer would be truthfully "no" from you. And from me, your friendly anti-troll commenter, I will swear if you do
Oh BTW, this posting limitation might as well apply to all the other trolls too if I take this wager
Whoever posted about extremeskater having a stroke... that was hilarious.
I never understood why users were supposed to care, and I'd wager that the number is closer to 95%.
Nope, have to disagree there.
Apple have the 'loyal' users (not the best description) that are a huge percentage, albeit the PC to Mac group is swelling the ranks. Almost all 'long term' users are fully aware of UNIX, as aware as the Intel switch and OS X. There are millions of we older 'wiser' users still in the installed user base.
And we couldn't be happier BTW
EDIT: well maybe a little bit happier - richer, more wise or both?
He'll it was ALL good man. Kudos.