International sales expected to account for 80% of iPhones sold in 2010

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  • Reply 21 of 42
    shadashshadash Posts: 470member
    Google activating 160,000 Android devices per day. That's up from 100,000/day at Google I/O last month. That extrapolates out to almost 60 million/year.



    http://www.9to5mac.com/node/18456
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  • Reply 22 of 42
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shadash View Post


    Its a radio. Do you really think Apple can engineer an amazing new phone like the iPhone 4 and can't figure out how to switch out the radios? While Palm was dying last year they still figured out how to release the Pre on multiple carriers in the US.



    And CDMA is not going away in the next 24 months. Verizon has said CDMA will be around for 8-10 years. If Apple ever plans on releasing a Phone on Verizon or Sprint, they will have to do a CDMA phone.



    It's a lot more than just a radio. Adding support for T-Mobile USA is just a radio. That isn't to say that it's difficult for them to make but the reasoning is clearly based on everything but difficulty.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    .



    Here's an interesting post about iPhone market penetration in Finland:



    http://www.tuaw.com/2010/06/23/iphon...land-of-nokia/



    .



    Interesting data.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shadash View Post


    Google activating 160,000 Android devices per day. That's up from 100,000/day at Google I/O last month. That extrapolates out to almost 60 million/year.



    http://www.9to5mac.com/node/18456



    I think the next quarter or two is the last Apple will have with iOS-based phones beating out Android-based phones per quarter. Apple will still continue to be the most profitable handset maker, but Google doesn't care about that.. at least not until Apple make iAd available for web sites, too.
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  • Reply 23 of 42
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Damn_Its_Hot View Post


    I am assuming a verification query includes things like eligibility for upgrades and not just activation. I was actually one of those people trying to verify that I could upgrade since the media was indicating that I could but AT&T was not indicating same. After numerous tries I finally got thru and was indeed given my correct status (upgrade at $199 waiving $18 fee). I actually did not plan on ordering that day but did want to be able to plan for the near future (looks further now with the high demand). I don't know that there is anyway to tell how many would have actually bought phones but since many were having problems similar to mine I have to expect that at was maybe a tenth or less of that 13M.



    The majority of those verifications were obviously repeats. I doubt if more than a tiny percentage were people who verified that they were eligible and then didn't follow through. The overwhelming majority were people who verified 10-20 times (or more) and were unable to complete the transaction due to AT&T server congestion.



    It was completely unforgiveable. As I've demonstrated elsewhere, even the large number of orders should not have messed things up to that extent. Note that people in other countries didn't have problems - and one would assume that the relative order rates would be comparable (that is, orders as a percent of installed base).



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shadash View Post


    Google activating 160,000 Android devices per day. That's up from 100,000/day at Google I/O last month. That extrapolates out to almost 60 million/year.



    http://www.9to5mac.com/node/18456



    Sorry, but I'll wait for independent numbers. We've already seen how unreliable self-reported Android sales figures are.
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  • Reply 24 of 42
    asciiascii Posts: 5,936member
    What a fool. There is no way 80% will be sold overseas.
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  • Reply 25 of 42
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by benice View Post


    It's extremely difficult to justify any reliable reason for multiples to increase across the market. Plus at 20-25 times earnings for a fairly mature company the best way to think of it is that it is more than fully valued.



    Back of the envelope, they are forecasting about 14 times earnings for 2010 at the current share price, and 25 times earnings for 2011 at their forecasted share price. Fiscal years, I assume. Among the many tricky moving parts here is the share price at the end of the FY, about three months away. If it's over 300, then they could be near the mark for the next year.
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  • Reply 26 of 42
    joe hsjoe hs Posts: 488member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by kwatson View Post


    Sigh. I guess no Mac Pro this year. Apple blows with the wind, no commitments to any long-term customers anymore. No wonder enterprises shun Apple. Good for stock, bad for original customers who really care about the company. Time to buy an iPhone and a Dell...



    Dell?!!! NOOOOO! don't resort to that!
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  • Reply 27 of 42
    apple///apple/// Posts: 90member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shadash View Post


    Why don't you ask Nokia how ignoring the US market has gone. A second phone on Verizon would do nothing detrimental to the iPhone juggernaut overseas. The "giant in the room" here in the US is Android and Apple is extremely foolish if they ignore this growing threat.



    Yes this is the best point I have seen made. Android is growing and soon may be a full blown title wave. The obvious problem is the bottleneck that Apple has with its one exclusive carrier which happens to have a BAD reputation. No matter how you cut this everyone and their grandmother knows that at&t has a dropped call problem. Even if its only true for certain areas, the damage is done as far as public image.



    Opening the iPhone to multiple carrier's is a complicated issue. But if it's not done soon I am afraid that the iPhone will soon be eclipsed by Android and soon Android will become the behemoth giant of smart phones a lot like what PC's became to the Mac in the 90's.



    I hate to say this but if Adobe Flash for Android is successful it may seriously help propel Android in momentum. Or its possible that Flash will do nothing for Android. Either way Apple needs to take a serious look at this oncoming threat.
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  • Reply 28 of 42
    The main question is still, why bother if you already have enough sales?



    To paraphrase, Android doesn't have to fail for Apple to win, and vice verse. I have no idea how much goes into 'switching out' the components (not a hardware engineer), but having worked in software, I am used to people who ALWAYS think there is no problem doing anything, making any change. That usually is not so.



    I have also read a lot of different accounts on when CDMA is going away. I don't know for sure.

    But the main issue is, if Apple doesn't need more sales of the iPhone, if the partnership with AT&T is profitable, then why bother?



    Also, as I mentioned in my post, doing it just to somehow 'win' or 'face off' against Android is silly. Android is going to have to face the fact that it will start to eat itself soon.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shadash View Post


    Its a radio. Do you really think Apple can engineer an amazing new phone like the iPhone 4 and can't figure out how to switch out the radios? While Palm was dying last year they still figured out how to release the Pre on multiple carriers in the US.



    And CDMA is not going away in the next 24 months. Verizon has said CDMA will be around for 8-10 years. If Apple ever plans on releasing a Phone on Verizon or Sprint, they will have to do a CDMA phone.



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  • Reply 29 of 42
    A web plug-in will be the kingmaker?



    Really?



    And all those folks enjoying their iOS devices will leave for a non-iOS device because it offers - Flash?



    Android and the iPhone can survive just fine together. I don't get any of your thinking beyond a reactionary POV.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple/// View Post


    Yes this is the best point I have seen made. Android is growing and soon may be a full blown title wave. The obvious problem is the bottleneck that Apple has with its one exclusive carrier which happens to have a BAD reputation. No matter how you cut this everyone and their grandmother knows that at&t has a dropped call problem. Even if its only true for certain areas, the damage is done as far as public image.



    Opening the iPhone to multiple carrier's is a complicated issue. But if it's not done soon I am afraid that the iPhone will soon be eclipsed by Android and soon Android will become the behemoth giant of smart phones a lot like what PC's became to the Mac in the 90's.



    I hate to say this but if Adobe Flash for Android is successful it may seriously help propel Android in momentum. Or its possible that Flash will do nothing for Android. Either way Apple needs to take a serious look at this oncoming threat.



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  • Reply 30 of 42
    I don't think Apple cares about that either. They have not sold more computers running OSX then PC's running Windows and they do well enough.



    Android faces a ton of difficulty making the platform valuable and meaningful in peoples minds. They face a deluge of hardware, no doubt some will be very bad, giving consumers a taste of Android they will not like. They face multiple version of OS's and the layer that hardware manufactures are putting atop.



    Apple and Android will each face difficulties. But AGAIN, one need not fail for the other to do well.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    It's a lot more than just a radio. Adding support for T-Mobile USA is just a radio. That isn't to say that it's difficult for them to make but the reasoning is clearly based on everything but difficulty.





    Interesting data.







    I think the next quarter or two is the last Apple will have with iOS-based phones beating out Android-based phones per quarter. Apple will still continue to be the most profitable handset maker, but Google doesn't care about that.. at least not until Apple make iAd available for web sites, too.



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  • Reply 31 of 42
    shadashshadash Posts: 470member
    Go back and look at this Steve Jobs interview:



    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nK7TQVFSA1Y



    Flip over to around 2 minutes in and listen to him talk about Xerox's wasted opportunities in the early 80s. Then go to around 3:40 and watch to the end. You can hear the bitterness and anger in his voice as he talks about how Sculley screwed Apple, ruined what he had worked for over 10 years, and let Microsoft walk away with the prize.



    If Jobs can help it, I don't think he'll let that happen again. Apple does not have "enough sales" and is not well served by ignoring customers who refuse to switch to AT&T.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mark Fearing View Post


    The main question is still, why bother if you already have enough sales?



    To paraphrase, Android doesn't have to fail for Apple to win, and vice verse. I have no idea how much goes into 'switching out' the components (not a hardware engineer), but having worked in software, I am used to people who ALWAYS think there is no problem doing anything, making any change. That usually is not so.



    I have also read a lot of different accounts on when CDMA is going away. I don't know for sure.

    But the main issue is, if Apple doesn't need more sales of the iPhone, if the partnership with AT&T is profitable, then why bother?



    Also, as I mentioned in my post, doing it just to somehow 'win' or 'face off' against Android is silly. Android is going to have to face the fact that it will start to eat itself soon.



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  • Reply 32 of 42
    Maybe. I'm not CEO of Apple, what do I know!!?



    But I'm not sure this is the same thing. (Apple vs. PC's) I suspect the mobile space will develop differently.



    And if Android wins the day, so be it. But again, I'm not sure it matters . There is plenty of room in the market for different solutions. I would guess, 4 years out, it will be Windows Mobile, RIM, Android in some form and Apple. No knock out blows between these players. Perhaps a slow death by one or two.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shadash View Post


    Go back and look at this Steve Jobs interview:



    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nK7TQVFSA1Y



    Flip over to around 2 minutes in and listen to him talk about Xerox's wasted opportunities in the early 80s. Then go to around 3:40 and watch to the end. You can hear the bitterness and anger in his voice as he talks about how Sculley screwed Apple, ruined what he had worked for over 10 years, and let Microsoft walk away with the prize.



    If Jobs can help it, I don't think he'll let that happen again. Apple does not have "enough sales" and is not well served by ignoring customers who refuse to switch to AT&T.



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  • Reply 33 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mark Fearing View Post


    A web plug-in will be the kingmaker?



    Really?



    And all those folks enjoying their iOS devices will leave for a non-iOS device because it offers - Flash?



    Android and the iPhone can survive just fine together. I don't get any of your thinking beyond a reactionary POV.



    Perhaps you are correct that it is a reactionary point of view but I still believe it is a valid point of view. I don't mean to sound like "Apple is doomed!" or anything like that however the memories of the 1990's PC war if you will was not a pleasant one. Of course Apple is a completely different company today 100 percent different a 180 degree turn from the Apple of the mid nineties.



    However, I think what is valid is if Fash for smartphones takes off and become success and Apple chooses to not support it otr ban it form their product, then yes I do think it will be a serious problem for Apple. More then that I think Flash has the ability to help kick start Android even more then where Android is today.



    And now Android is growing and I believe flash will help them with that. And I think Apple need to keep an eye on this, and the fact that Android phones may one day soon outsell them three to one.
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  • Reply 34 of 42
    copelandcopeland Posts: 298member
    If you can believe the numbers on this site:

    http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-the-...m-and-cdma.htm

    then GSM is about 4 times the size of CDMA worldwide.



    But I think that 270 million possible subscribers should be big enough to recover costs for the development of a CDMA phone. And as far as I know even with 4G they would need CDMA for those providers because CDMA would be their fall back strategy when 4G is not available.



    And I think Apple shouldn't hand a walled CDMA garden (no iPhone) to Android. But thats just me.
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  • Reply 35 of 42
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,557member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple/// View Post


    That is truly sad. Apple really should get its act together and open the iPhone up to multiple carriers in the U.S. as soon as they can. Talk about cannibalizing their own potential sales.



    What about that exclusivity contract with at&t? Apple can't just walk away from it if at&t wants to hold them to it. Remember, Verizon apparently told Apple to go fly a kite when Jobs pitched it to them. At&t took the chance and are now reaping the benefits. Verizon laughed at the iPhone. At&t is crying all the way to the bank. If I ran at&t I would hold Apple to its contract for as long as possible.
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  • Reply 36 of 42
    apple///apple/// Posts: 90member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post


    What about that exclusivity contract with at&t? Apple can't just walk away from it if at&t wants to hold them to it. Remember, Verizon apparently told Apple to go fly a kite when Jobs pitched it to them. At&t took the chance and are now reaping the benefits. Verizon laughed at the iPhone. At&t is crying all the way to the bank. If I ran at&t I would hold Apple to its contract for as long as possible.



    You are right about that. It is just awfully frustrating to watch Apple hurt themselves with bad publicity for what are perceived as AT&T's poor infrastructure.



    I suppose that is what is truly keeping iPhone from other carriers at this point. Nothing seems exactly clear on this issue though. I haven't seen anything that states when this exclusivity ends. And on that note didn't Apple extend the AT&T exclusive partnership not to long ago? Nothing on this matter is too clear and it would seem Apple and AT&T would like to keep it that way.
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  • Reply 37 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    Sorry, but I'll wait for independent numbers. We've already seen how unreliable self-reported Android sales figures are.





    Android demolishing iPhone in sales

    May 10

    NPD says that in the first three months of 2010, Android captured 28% of the smartphone market, while Apple's iPhone grabbed only 21%.

    http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/05/...hone-in-sales/









    ----





    More Data Shows Android Gaining on iPhone

    June 14

    Quantcast released its North American mobile OS market share report for May 2010 today and the results are indicative of a trend we have seen from other sources: The iPhone is still the market leader, but Android is making big gains.

    ?

    In every category, Android?s market share has risen, whereas iOS?s has decreased.

    ?

    iOS?s share of the market has decreased 8.1% whereas Android has increased 12.2% over the last year.

    ?

    http://mashable.com/2010/06/14/iphon...d-marketshare/









    Related:





    Gartner Predicts Android Beats iPhone by 2012

    http://www.pointabout.com/2009/10/13...phone-by-2012/





    ----





    How Android is moving to the dashboard



    But many car manufacturers are more interested in Android integration than in BlackBerry or iPhone.



    While it will be a few years before we see full in-car systems running Android, Autumn will see the first cars available with built-in integration for Android smartphones that let you launch and control apps from the car's interface.



    iPhone vs Android



    Although they started by planning iPhone integration, car makers have been turning their focus to Android instead.



    Robert Acker, the CEO of Aha Mobile, told TechRadar that Aha has an iPhone app that reads out tweets, Facebook updates and traffic alerts or streams podcasts from a driver-friendly interface.



    Manufacturers plan to offer it as an in-car option, but many car companies have been asking them for an Android app instead.



    "They have to do iPhone," says Acker,"but Android is a lot more open. There aren't as many steps as for iPhone integration and they don't have to buy a proprietary chip [from Apple]. A lot of them have said 'let's start by doing an Android integration and we'll add in the iPhone piece later."



    Android has another advantage; although the iPhone 4 software adds multi-tasking it still doesn't let you launch an app remotely. "With Android, Acker explains, "I can plug my phone in and push this button in the car and launch apps on the phone.



    "You're using the vehicle controls and you never have to look at the phone again. You can't have that kind of control on the iPhone." The phone will give the car an Internet connection ? "so you can play a Pandora radio station or listen to a Twitter feed in your vehicle, suggests Acker.

    ...

    http://www.techradar.com/news/world-...shboard-684722



    ----





    iPhone 4G Recall Rumors Are Spreading And Android Needs To Be Taking Advantage.

    http://technology.gather.com/viewArt...81474978332284





    ----



    What iPhone? Here Come FOUR MORE Android Phones From Samsung

    June 28

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...ung-2010-6.DTL
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  • Reply 38 of 42
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    Who is this AT&T I keep hearing about?



    The single biggest impediment Apple faces in selling its iPhone:



    http://techcrunch.com/2010/06/28/iphone-4-sales/
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  • Reply 39 of 42
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RationalTroll View Post


    Android demolishing iPhone in sales



    Sales, eh? It's funny how you think free OS that can be demolishing a HW device in sales. How about you use the information in the chart instead of making shit up to support a felonious agenda?



    Is Android going to outpace iOS in per unit installations on smartphones? Absolutely! No one thinks or expect otherwise. Its being sold on dozens, maybe hundreds, of smartphone models around the world so why would you think otherwise compared to OS installs from ONE company that sells ONE new phone a year in TWO colours and in TWO sizes?
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  • Reply 40 of 42
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RationalTroll View Post


    The single biggest impediment Apple faces in selling its iPhone:



    http://techcrunch.com/2010/06/28/iphone-4-sales/



    I hate stupid people! I'm going to walk you through this slowly....



    The article you link to states the title: "What Would iPhone 4 Sales Be Like If It Weren?t Tied To AT&T?"



    You think that the sales would be higher if they weren't tied to AT&T, despite AT&T being only 1 of about 160 carriers they use throughout the world. Okay, the US is by far the largest single country of iPhones buyers.



    So for that title to pose a valid question and your argument to make any sense there has to be plenty of iPhone 4s not being sold specifically because of Apple's association with AT&T. Have you heard of that happening?



    Okay, I try to be patient with challenged people like jfanning so I'll attempt to do the same for you and give you the benefit of the doubt that you haven't heard of any iPhone 4 lines or stores selling out quickly, but now that you are aware of this, do you still think they would have sold more if they weren't on AT&T?



    Here's a paraphrasing of a scenario proposed by a poster the other day: "Little Stevie has 8 apples to sell, he goes to AT&T and sells all 8 apples. He then goes to Verizon to sell more apples but he's all out of apples. How many Apples did Little Stevie sell?"





    edit: Is this where you tell me these people are picketing, not waiting in line?
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