I hope no one holds 15-year-old stated opinions over your head. The tech world was a very different place in 1996.
That quote from 1996 (MS has won) still holds true today: Apple is growing at 35% from a 3.3% market share while the market as a whole is growing at 20% (Source: IDC). If Apple continues at that rate they will reach a 10% market share by 2020 and 50% by 2030. So unless we are talking about a far away possible future, Microsoft still holds the market.
This is still very good news for Apple investors - it just doesn't change the market share significantly.
All this talk about cannibalising Mac sales.. doesn't anyone else think like me - that actually the iPad is going to make more people switch TO Mac?
I think the iPad is an entirely NEW market. The Netbook is a 90% productivity and 10 % leisure device. It barely runs Windows, it has lousy keyboard/mouse and a crappy display with an underpowered 1 GHz processor. For movie watching, music and gaming - well, it's pathetic. If you fly or commute, you can watch a movie or play a game on it - but it's only last resort.
The iPad is 80% Leisure and 20% productivity. It's amazing to watch movies, play games, surf the net; and if you don't have an external keyboard - you can do a report on it; but it wouldn't be my first choice.
Now, add a bluetooth keyboard/mouse to the iPad; and you have a serious contender for the Netbook market - however if you have any specialized apps, the iPad simply will not work.
Thus, the iPad is one of those new, emerging LEISURE devices, IMHO
Steve Jobs: "If I were running Apple, I would milk the Macintosh for all it's worth -- and get busy on the next great thing. The PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long time ago."
-- Fortune, Feb. 19, 1996
He is sorta putting the Mac last and having 'the next big thing' take centre stage. See iPod, iPad and iPhone.
... Thus, the iPad is one of those new, emerging LEISURE devices, IMHO
I think it's a mistake to try categorize the iPad as a leisure vs. productivity, or creation vs. consumption device. (John Gruber has a recurring theme on Daring Fireball of postings about people who didn't get the memo that the iPad is a consumption, not a creation, device.) What it is depends mostly on the software you have on it.
It's a portable device that's nice to use around the house when you don't want to sit at a desk. It's a portable device that's easy to travel with. It can be different things at different times and in different places and for different people. If you want to categorize it as something, call it an ultra-portable computer. It can be used more casually than a desktop or notebook, but that doesn't preclude doing "serious work" on it.
And, it's probably worth noting that lots of people aren't really all that productive on their netbooks.
But the growth will be from laptops and the Mini. Traditional 'desktop' sales (both volume and price) seem to be falling even faster than iPod sales.
You need to pay attention to the past 4-6 10-Q filings. iMac and Mac Pro sales are all increasing quarter over quarter at accelerating rates, especially the iMac.
Steve Jobs: "If I were running Apple, I would milk the Macintosh for all it's worth -- and get busy on the next great thing. The PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long time ago."
-- Fortune, Feb. 19, 1996
He did say the "next" great thing. Maybe that was a coded message showing is intent to come back to Apple and bring the NeXT OS with him.
With less than 5% of the global market, Macs will be the sleeper growth opportunity for Apple in the next decade. Especially as developing countries grow wealthier, as they inevitably will.
But on the flipside, as that link notes: "...the average Windows machine in June sold for $515, the average Apple machine came in at $1,400."
So you're right: with 5.4% of global market share but also with the highest margins in the industry, we can expect Mac to remain a steady profit center for the company.
But I wouldn't expect much Mac growth in nascent markets like Asia or South America. While some segments there are indeed booming, most of those markets simply can't afford to buy some of the most expensive computers available.
That won't hurt Apple's bottom line, but neither will it boost their market share.
Sure, Linux has only a 1% share on the desktop by some measures, but consider the rate of growth:
How many other platforms have tripled in just 5 years?
Apple's share has grown well in recent years, but has never regained its 10% it had in the early '90s.
I wouldn't say the future belongs to Linux, not by a long shot. But I can see a time 10 years from now when platforms have a fairly even three-way split between MS, Apple, and Linux. Microsoft goes down, Apple quintuples, and Linux fills in the gap in between.
They are amazing machines, and deserve to sell well although the new Mac Mini is a massive rip off in the UK, we pay over £100 (around $150) more than the US and yes that price includes our vat and exchange rates etc before anyone says "it's because of the vat"
Your figures are slightly off, but you do have a point. I have just done the calculation for where I'm from (UK) and where I am (Portugal) using today's rates. This is for the basic model Mini, which Apple sells for $699 in the US:
... But I wouldn't expect much Mac growth in nascent markets like Asia or South America. While some segments there are indeed booming, most of those markets simply can't afford to buy some of the most expensive computers available.
For those markets I would expect [Linux] to show the highest growth, with Windows right behind and Mac a distant third.
That won't hurt Apple's bottom line, but neither will it boost their market share.
...
I wouldn't say the future belongs to Linux, not by a long shot. But I can see a time 10 years from now when platforms have a fairly even three-way split between MS, Apple, and Linux. Microsoft goes down, Apple quintuples, and Linux fills in the gap in between.
I doubt that Linux will have that sort of market share in 10 years, unless it is largely made up of installations in markets that can't afford anything else, which means no one will really be making any money from it, the software that runs on it, or the hardware it runs on. (Which would also mean that market share would become an even more meaningless statistic) But, the Linux desktop user experience sucks, even in comparison to Windows. It's still a great server platform, but as a workstation it's pretty lousy.
That quote from 1996 (MS has won) still holds true today: Apple is growing at 35% from a 3.3% market share while the market as a whole is growing at 20% (Source: IDC). If Apple continues at that rate they will reach a 10% market share by 2020 and 50% by 2030. So unless we are talking about a far away possible future, Microsoft still holds the market.
This is still very good news for Apple investors - it just doesn't change the market share significantly.
Apple already takes about 1/3rd of the profit from all PC vendors so I don't think that kind of growth is sustainable or even possible given Apple chosen market of pairing the OS with the HW.
Even HP, the largest PC vendor in the world who make their unit numbers by selling cheap machines with little profit, backed my renting space to crapware developers, only have 25%.
Apple and MS are not in the same business so doing a direct comparison simply doesn't work without acknowledging all these caveats. The problem MS faces as they are forced to support open standards and an increasingly OS independent web is that the underlying OS isn't as important as it used to be for many people. Google looks to MS' biggest threat when it comes to the desktop OS. If they lose all those netbook sales of Windows OEMs to ChromeOS it will be the tip of the iceberg for the consumer Windows market of cheap PCs.
I doubt that Linux will have that sort of market share in 10 years, unless it is largely made up of installations in markets that can't afford anything else, which means no one will really be making any money from it, the software that runs on it, or the hardware it runs on. (Which would also mean that market share would become an even more meaningless statistic) But, the Linux desktop user experience sucks, even in comparison to Windows. It's still a great server platform, but as a workstation it's pretty lousy.
Linux growth is possible, but only for the kernel itself, much like Android and other mobile OSes.
I doubt that Linux will have that sort of market share in 10 years, unless it is largely made up of installations in markets that can't afford anything else
Yes, that was exactly my point:
"Officially, India's strategy is to make Linux the standard for students in all academic institutions while the government trains employees to help them work in a Linux environment with support from IBM."
"Increasingly, Brazil's government ministries and state-run enterprises are abandoning Windows in favour of 'open-source' or 'free' software, like Linux. 'The number one reason for this change is economic', says Sergio Amadeu, who runs the government's National Institute for Information Technology."
But there are some notable installations elsewhere too:
"'When we rolled into Baghdad, we did it using open source,' General Justice continued. 'It may come as a surprise to many of you, but the U.S. Army is the single largest install base for Red Hat Linux. I'm their largest customer.'"
which means no one will really be making any money from it
Er, Linux is free.
Besides, while few companies have the margins Apple does with its expensive machines, Red Hat, Canonical, IBM, and others are doing well enough (certainly better than most iPhone developers).
Quote:
But, the Linux desktop user experience sucks, even in comparison to Windows. It's still a great server platform, but as a workstation it's pretty lousy.
Millions of people feel otherwise. De gustibus non est disputandum. Enjoy your choice, let others enjoy theirs.
Linux growth is possible, but only for the kernel itself, much like Android and other mobile OSes.
For growth, right now Linux is at least on par with Apple globally.
In terms of absolute numbers, yes, Gartner predicts Android, while technically no longer a Linux derivative per se, will overtake iOS in under two years:
If I recall correctly the iMac was singlehandedly propping up the desktop market being the only brand and machine reportedly on the rise.
I have to wonder if the iPad (and future tablets it will inevitably spur) will have a positive effect on the overall desktop market. I know of several people who have gotten or will be getting a desktop for their next PC after buying an iPad.
That is my current plan. I was set on getting a new MacBook Pro this year to replace my aging G5 Dual. With my iPad, I no longer see a need for the MacBook, and will buy a new desktop within the next year. I'm not surprised to hear that others are following the same course.
Now, if only Apple would release the mini-tower we've been asking for these past several years. The iMac is not expandable enough, and the pro is overkill for many price-conscious people.
Well, you'll notice that, snipped from your quote, I also said they wouldn't make money from the software that runs on it or the hardware it runs on.
Quote:
Besides, while few companies have the margins Apple does with its expensive machines, Red Hat, Canonical, IBM, and others are doing well enough (certainly better than most iPhone developers).
I don't think there is much growth potential for them in the markets you describe, at this time, or in the foreseeable future.
Quote:
Millions of people feel otherwise. De gustibus non est disputandum. Enjoy your choice, let others enjoy theirs.
In terms of absolute numbers, yes, Gartner predicts Android, while technically no longer a Linux derivative per se, will overtake iOS in under two years
Oh, Gartner, right, they're usually a reliable source.
All this talk about cannibalising Mac sales.. doesn't anyone else think like me - that actually the iPad is going to make more people switch TO Mac?
I agree it's nonsense. The pundits are assuming that people buy Apple purely on brand and ultimately Apple products will cannibalise themselves. Unfortunately for them Apple products are well distanced up the scale, few would buy an iPad instead of an MBP because of the genuine functionality gap.
Cheap Windows Net/Notebooks, on the other hand, promise this functionality but poor design creates a failure to deliver (just look at what average users actually do with their notebooks) so their genuine functionality falls within reach of iPad. This is the market that iPad should cannibalise and as more non-Apple people get to experience their products another halo should occur.
I'd be keen to see how Windows Net/Notebook sales are doing outside of the emerging markets.
And while the Linux software and hardware vendors I know personally are much smaller than those, they're all doing quite well.
The situation with Linux is much like we used to hear about Mac back when it was down to a 2.2% market share, about how it's not worth developing for. But there's money to be made for nearly an platform if you go about it smartly. And like the rebound of the Mac, seeing Linux desktop market share triple in just five years bodes very well for the platform.
Besides, for many companies investing in Linux it's not about direct returns as much as strategic value, for the reasons Joel outlines well here:
But, the Linux desktop user experience sucks, even in comparison to Windows. It's still a great server platform, but as a workstation it's pretty lousy.
Millions of people feel otherwise. De gustibus non est disputandum. Enjoy your choice, let others enjoy theirs.
They are just living in denial.
Keepin' it as classy. Nice.
And to think some here wonder why Mac folks have the reputation they do....
And while the Linux software and hardware vendors I know personally are much smaller than those, they're all doing quite well.
The situation with Linux is much like we used to hear about Mac back when it was down to a 2.2% market share, about how it's not worth developing for. But there's money to be made for nearly an platform if you go about it smartly. And like the rebound of the Mac, seeing Linux desktop market share triple in just five years bodes very well for the platform.
Besides, for many companies investing in Linux it's not about direct returns as much as strategic value, for the reasons Joel outlines well here:
None of these examples have anything to do with selling Linux software in developing economies.
Quote:
Keepin' it as classy. Nice.
And to think some here wonder why Mac folks have the reputation they do....
I work on Linux workstations not infrequently, and the user experience completely sucks compared to Windows (OK, it's more stable, but that's all). Compared to Mac OS X it's not even in the game. Anyone who claims the Linux desktop is ready for prime time is allowing their reason to be clouded by their ideological bias.
Comments
I hope no one holds 15-year-old stated opinions over your head. The tech world was a very different place in 1996.
That quote from 1996 (MS has won) still holds true today: Apple is growing at 35% from a 3.3% market share while the market as a whole is growing at 20% (Source: IDC). If Apple continues at that rate they will reach a 10% market share by 2020 and 50% by 2030. So unless we are talking about a far away possible future, Microsoft still holds the market.
This is still very good news for Apple investors - it just doesn't change the market share significantly.
All this talk about cannibalising Mac sales.. doesn't anyone else think like me - that actually the iPad is going to make more people switch TO Mac?
I think the iPad is an entirely NEW market. The Netbook is a 90% productivity and 10 % leisure device. It barely runs Windows, it has lousy keyboard/mouse and a crappy display with an underpowered 1 GHz processor. For movie watching, music and gaming - well, it's pathetic. If you fly or commute, you can watch a movie or play a game on it - but it's only last resort.
The iPad is 80% Leisure and 20% productivity. It's amazing to watch movies, play games, surf the net; and if you don't have an external keyboard - you can do a report on it; but it wouldn't be my first choice.
Now, add a bluetooth keyboard/mouse to the iPad; and you have a serious contender for the Netbook market - however if you have any specialized apps, the iPad simply will not work.
Thus, the iPad is one of those new, emerging LEISURE devices, IMHO
Steve Jobs: "If I were running Apple, I would milk the Macintosh for all it's worth -- and get busy on the next great thing. The PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long time ago."
-- Fortune, Feb. 19, 1996
He is sorta putting the Mac last and having 'the next big thing' take centre stage. See iPod, iPad and iPhone.
... Thus, the iPad is one of those new, emerging LEISURE devices, IMHO
I think it's a mistake to try categorize the iPad as a leisure vs. productivity, or creation vs. consumption device. (John Gruber has a recurring theme on Daring Fireball of postings about people who didn't get the memo that the iPad is a consumption, not a creation, device.) What it is depends mostly on the software you have on it.
It's a portable device that's nice to use around the house when you don't want to sit at a desk. It's a portable device that's easy to travel with. It can be different things at different times and in different places and for different people. If you want to categorize it as something, call it an ultra-portable computer. It can be used more casually than a desktop or notebook, but that doesn't preclude doing "serious work" on it.
And, it's probably worth noting that lots of people aren't really all that productive on their netbooks.
But the growth will be from laptops and the Mini. Traditional 'desktop' sales (both volume and price) seem to be falling even faster than iPod sales.
You need to pay attention to the past 4-6 10-Q filings. iMac and Mac Pro sales are all increasing quarter over quarter at accelerating rates, especially the iMac.
Steve Jobs: "If I were running Apple, I would milk the Macintosh for all it's worth -- and get busy on the next great thing. The PC wars are over. Done. Microsoft won a long time ago."
-- Fortune, Feb. 19, 1996
He did say the "next" great thing. Maybe that was a coded message showing is intent to come back to Apple and bring the NeXT OS with him.
With less than 5% of the global market, Macs will be the sleeper growth opportunity for Apple in the next decade. Especially as developing countries grow wealthier, as they inevitably will.
On the plus side, Apple has some 91% of the market for PCs costing more than $1000.
But on the flipside, as that link notes: "...the average Windows machine in June sold for $515, the average Apple machine came in at $1,400."
So you're right: with 5.4% of global market share but also with the highest margins in the industry, we can expect Mac to remain a steady profit center for the company.
But I wouldn't expect much Mac growth in nascent markets like Asia or South America. While some segments there are indeed booming, most of those markets simply can't afford to buy some of the most expensive computers available.
For those markets I would expect lower-end PCs running Red-Flag, Ubuntu or other Linux distro to show the highest growth, with Windows right behind and Mac a distant third.
That won't hurt Apple's bottom line, but neither will it boost their market share.
Sure, Linux has only a 1% share on the desktop by some measures, but consider the rate of growth:
How many other platforms have tripled in just 5 years?
Apple's share has grown well in recent years, but has never regained its 10% it had in the early '90s.
I wouldn't say the future belongs to Linux, not by a long shot. But I can see a time 10 years from now when platforms have a fairly even three-way split between MS, Apple, and Linux. Microsoft goes down, Apple quintuples, and Linux fills in the gap in between.
7.1 million - Projected iPad sales for 2010. (Source: iSuppli)
58 million - Projected netbook sales in 2010. (Source: ABI Research)
355 million - Projected PC sales in 2010. (Source: IDC)
http://blog.seattlepi.com/microsoft/...rom=blog_last3
They are amazing machines, and deserve to sell well although the new Mac Mini is a massive rip off in the UK, we pay over £100 (around $150) more than the US and yes that price includes our vat and exchange rates etc before anyone says "it's because of the vat"
Your figures are slightly off, but you do have a point. I have just done the calculation for where I'm from (UK) and where I am (Portugal) using today's rates. This is for the basic model Mini, which Apple sells for $699 in the US:
UK: $699 = £461.29 + VAT @ 17.5% = £552.02. UK price = £649. Difference = +£96.98 = 17.57%
Portugal: $699 = ?638.64 + IVA @21% = ?766.37. Portugal price = ?806. Difference = +?39.63 = 5.17%
So the UK does pay a significant premium, which is all the more galling seeing as we invented Johnny Ive and should therefore all get a discount.
... But I wouldn't expect much Mac growth in nascent markets like Asia or South America. While some segments there are indeed booming, most of those markets simply can't afford to buy some of the most expensive computers available.
For those markets I would expect [Linux] to show the highest growth, with Windows right behind and Mac a distant third.
That won't hurt Apple's bottom line, but neither will it boost their market share.
...
I wouldn't say the future belongs to Linux, not by a long shot. But I can see a time 10 years from now when platforms have a fairly even three-way split between MS, Apple, and Linux. Microsoft goes down, Apple quintuples, and Linux fills in the gap in between.
I doubt that Linux will have that sort of market share in 10 years, unless it is largely made up of installations in markets that can't afford anything else, which means no one will really be making any money from it, the software that runs on it, or the hardware it runs on. (Which would also mean that market share would become an even more meaningless statistic) But, the Linux desktop user experience sucks, even in comparison to Windows. It's still a great server platform, but as a workstation it's pretty lousy.
That quote from 1996 (MS has won) still holds true today: Apple is growing at 35% from a 3.3% market share while the market as a whole is growing at 20% (Source: IDC). If Apple continues at that rate they will reach a 10% market share by 2020 and 50% by 2030. So unless we are talking about a far away possible future, Microsoft still holds the market.
This is still very good news for Apple investors - it just doesn't change the market share significantly.
Apple already takes about 1/3rd of the profit from all PC vendors so I don't think that kind of growth is sustainable or even possible given Apple chosen market of pairing the OS with the HW.
Even HP, the largest PC vendor in the world who make their unit numbers by selling cheap machines with little profit, backed my renting space to crapware developers, only have 25%.
Apple and MS are not in the same business so doing a direct comparison simply doesn't work without acknowledging all these caveats. The problem MS faces as they are forced to support open standards and an increasingly OS independent web is that the underlying OS isn't as important as it used to be for many people. Google looks to MS' biggest threat when it comes to the desktop OS. If they lose all those netbook sales of Windows OEMs to ChromeOS it will be the tip of the iceberg for the consumer Windows market of cheap PCs.
I doubt that Linux will have that sort of market share in 10 years, unless it is largely made up of installations in markets that can't afford anything else, which means no one will really be making any money from it, the software that runs on it, or the hardware it runs on. (Which would also mean that market share would become an even more meaningless statistic) But, the Linux desktop user experience sucks, even in comparison to Windows. It's still a great server platform, but as a workstation it's pretty lousy.
Linux growth is possible, but only for the kernel itself, much like Android and other mobile OSes.
I doubt that Linux will have that sort of market share in 10 years, unless it is largely made up of installations in markets that can't afford anything else
Yes, that was exactly my point:
"Officially, India's strategy is to make Linux the standard for students in all academic institutions while the government trains employees to help them work in a Linux environment with support from IBM."
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GA28Df06.html
"Increasingly, Brazil's government ministries and state-run enterprises are abandoning Windows in favour of 'open-source' or 'free' software, like Linux. 'The number one reason for this change is economic', says Sergio Amadeu, who runs the government's National Institute for Information Technology."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/4602325.stm
But there are some notable installations elsewhere too:
"'When we rolled into Baghdad, we did it using open source,' General Justice continued. 'It may come as a surprise to many of you, but the U.S. Army is the single largest install base for Red Hat Linux. I'm their largest customer.'"
http://www.linux.com/archive/feed/61302
which means no one will really be making any money from it
Er, Linux is free.
Besides, while few companies have the margins Apple does with its expensive machines, Red Hat, Canonical, IBM, and others are doing well enough (certainly better than most iPhone developers).
But, the Linux desktop user experience sucks, even in comparison to Windows. It's still a great server platform, but as a workstation it's pretty lousy.
Millions of people feel otherwise. De gustibus non est disputandum. Enjoy your choice, let others enjoy theirs.
Linux growth is possible, but only for the kernel itself, much like Android and other mobile OSes.
For growth, right now Linux is at least on par with Apple globally.
In terms of absolute numbers, yes, Gartner predicts Android, while technically no longer a Linux derivative per se, will overtake iOS in under two years:
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...e_by_2012.html
If I recall correctly the iMac was singlehandedly propping up the desktop market being the only brand and machine reportedly on the rise.
I have to wonder if the iPad (and future tablets it will inevitably spur) will have a positive effect on the overall desktop market. I know of several people who have gotten or will be getting a desktop for their next PC after buying an iPad.
That is my current plan. I was set on getting a new MacBook Pro this year to replace my aging G5 Dual. With my iPad, I no longer see a need for the MacBook, and will buy a new desktop within the next year. I'm not surprised to hear that others are following the same course.
Now, if only Apple would release the mini-tower we've been asking for these past several years. The iMac is not expandable enough, and the pro is overkill for many price-conscious people.
... Er, Linux is free.
Well, you'll notice that, snipped from your quote, I also said they wouldn't make money from the software that runs on it or the hardware it runs on.
Besides, while few companies have the margins Apple does with its expensive machines, Red Hat, Canonical, IBM, and others are doing well enough (certainly better than most iPhone developers).
I don't think there is much growth potential for them in the markets you describe, at this time, or in the foreseeable future.
Millions of people feel otherwise. De gustibus non est disputandum. Enjoy your choice, let others enjoy theirs.
They are just living in denial.
In terms of absolute numbers, yes, Gartner predicts Android, while technically no longer a Linux derivative per se, will overtake iOS in under two years
Oh, Gartner, right, they're usually a reliable source.
All this talk about cannibalising Mac sales.. doesn't anyone else think like me - that actually the iPad is going to make more people switch TO Mac?
I agree it's nonsense. The pundits are assuming that people buy Apple purely on brand and ultimately Apple products will cannibalise themselves. Unfortunately for them Apple products are well distanced up the scale, few would buy an iPad instead of an MBP because of the genuine functionality gap.
Cheap Windows Net/Notebooks, on the other hand, promise this functionality but poor design creates a failure to deliver (just look at what average users actually do with their notebooks) so their genuine functionality falls within reach of iPad. This is the market that iPad should cannibalise and as more non-Apple people get to experience their products another halo should occur.
I'd be keen to see how Windows Net/Notebook sales are doing outside of the emerging markets.
McD
Well, you'll notice that, snipped from your quote, I also said they wouldn't make money from the software that runs on it or the hardware it runs on.
Red Hat has doubled in value over the last five years, IBM just turned in a strong quarter with profits expected to double by 2015, and Canonical's Mark Shuttleworth has so much money he can afford to take a long term approach, anticipating profitability in three to five years. While Canonical is a relative newcomer, with a larger share than Red Hat we can expect the company to do at least as well over the long term.
And while the Linux software and hardware vendors I know personally are much smaller than those, they're all doing quite well.
The situation with Linux is much like we used to hear about Mac back when it was down to a 2.2% market share, about how it's not worth developing for. But there's money to be made for nearly an platform if you go about it smartly. And like the rebound of the Mac, seeing Linux desktop market share triple in just five years bodes very well for the platform.
Besides, for many companies investing in Linux it's not about direct returns as much as strategic value, for the reasons Joel outlines well here:
http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articl...gyLetterV.html
But, the Linux desktop user experience sucks, even in comparison to Windows. It's still a great server platform, but as a workstation it's pretty lousy.
Millions of people feel otherwise. De gustibus non est disputandum. Enjoy your choice, let others enjoy theirs.
They are just living in denial.
Keepin' it as classy. Nice.
And to think some here wonder why Mac folks have the reputation they do....
Red Hat has doubled in value over the last five years, IBM just turned in a strong quarter with profits expected to double by 2015, and Canonical's Mark Shuttleworth has so much money he can afford to take a long term approach, anticipating profitability in three to five years. While Canonical is a relative newcomer, with a larger share than Red Hat we can expect the company to do at least as well over the long term.
And while the Linux software and hardware vendors I know personally are much smaller than those, they're all doing quite well.
The situation with Linux is much like we used to hear about Mac back when it was down to a 2.2% market share, about how it's not worth developing for. But there's money to be made for nearly an platform if you go about it smartly. And like the rebound of the Mac, seeing Linux desktop market share triple in just five years bodes very well for the platform.
Besides, for many companies investing in Linux it's not about direct returns as much as strategic value, for the reasons Joel outlines well here:
http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articl...gyLetterV.html
None of these examples have anything to do with selling Linux software in developing economies.
Keepin' it as classy. Nice.
And to think some here wonder why Mac folks have the reputation they do....
I work on Linux workstations not infrequently, and the user experience completely sucks compared to Windows (OK, it's more stable, but that's all). Compared to Mac OS X it's not even in the game. Anyone who claims the Linux desktop is ready for prime time is allowing their reason to be clouded by their ideological bias.