Apple has less than 10% of the CPU market (best guess)
Apple has less than 14.2% of the smartphone market (sales Q22010)
Apple has less than 2.7% of the cell phone market (sales Q22010)
The only business where Apple dominantes is the iPod/iTunes business. iTunes makes ver little profit, while iPods make some good cash - but that is a maturing market, and the sales are largely upgrades. If Apple was only iPods I woud agree with you.
There is lots of room for growth on the other three, and there is evidence that the iPod 'halo effect' has morphed into an 'iPad halo effect'. And the iPad is bought already by many corporations... Much growth to be expected in the CPU arena, imho. E.g. a large State University I work at seems to be shifting form Dells to iMacs (and installs Windows) because of the great quality reputation, and lower cost of ownership (I'm not sure the lower cost of ownership holds up with Windows installed, but that is what is happening)
The main question is: Can Apple keep those phenomenal margins, thus profits, and can it continue to innovate as much as it has with a bare bone research budget [yes Apple research budget is a (small?) fraction of Microsoft]
The other question that plagues me, what is Apple going to do with all of that cash???? If the growth continues, the few 100 mills being spent on acquisitions is not going to make much of a dent in the Billions of $ cash pile... And Apple can't really buy a really big company that costs billions, the culture would not transfer or translate, and there would be a serious risk of beginning a rot from within form loss of the culture. Better if Apple grows, and in so has everyone on board, culturally speaking. And, do not underestimate the importance of corporate culture for long term success! Short term success with cost cutting, lucky product, etc. possible. Sustained success and continued innovation needs more than managers minding the bottom line, it needs a certain way of thinking from every employee, all of the time.
I smell a dividend of Alpine proportions some day, better own stock to get your piece of that action.
Just some thoughts.
Apple is growing faster in foreign countries and the market penetration of the Mac worldwide is less than 5%... so the current average growth rate of 30% is sustainable. Same for the iPhone. The iPad is totally new category that is in hypergrowth.
Apple is a gorilla company and this kind of company tend to beat forecasts for many years till the market gets saturated... like MSFT, INTC, CSCO in their heyday. Got to sell when sales start to tapper... actually before then. The exit strategy is tricky.
Simple logic tells you that an accurate stock analyst cannot exist.
If they're good at predicting stock prices, they won't be sharing their knowledge. They'd instead be making a killing in the stock market.
Contrary to that belief, I do wish to help people as much as possible, and I have made a killing in the markets. Those two ideas aren't diametrically opposed though intuition says they might be.
Contrary to that belief, I do wish to help people as much as possible, and I have made a killing in the markets. Those two ideas aren't diametrically opposed though intuition says they might be.
Zero-sum-game seems to imply that, the more people you help, the less you can help each...
Nice reminder to people, although even a reasonably serious amateur investor would be aware of these points.
Just didn't have significant capital in 2008-9 to take advantage of this. Oh well, there's still at least 10-20% (if not 50%) upside in the 'long term' as you put it
Most apple shops are facebook-cafes. At least in the UK.
The strategy is that many of these facebook/twitter/email users are first time Mac users being introduced to the Mac and may well become future customers. Getting people to try out your product is a great way to introduce them to what you're selling. It seems to work
The strategy is that many of these facebook/twitter/email users are first time Mac users being introduced to the Mac and may well become future customers. Getting people to try out your product is a great way to introduce them to what you're selling. It seems to work
Fine in theory, but I'm fairly sure the number of people who come in to the shop for some casual browsing far outweigh the number of people interested in the products. Apple don't mind this because the place "looks" busy. As a potential buyer, it puts me off no end which is why I avoid the place except to get a hands on with the latest gadget.
I'm planning to sink 40 to 50,000 euros into Apple stock in the next few months. I'm willing to bet that in a year or two the stock will be worth quite a bit more; I don't think 44% growth is unreasonable.
I'm planning to sink 40 to 50,000 euros into Apple stock in the next few months. I'm willing to bet that in a year or two the stock will be worth quite a bit more; I don't think 44% growth is unreasonable.
Truly experienced market participants will read a post like yours with great alarm. Once the fish start jumping in and expecting returns like that, the end is nigh
Good analysis and defines why I do not invest in public companies. Market price is determined by people who know little if anything about the companies other than what they read in sources such as this; know nothing about real businesses; and are masters of manipulation.
Rumor and innuendo drive the market - not facts. Wall Street Brokers and Analysts are very good at sensing public perception and acting on it. That has nothing to do with fundamentals or business acumen.
Does anyone really know what goes on on Wall Street? This is slightly off-topic but instructive. I was working on a deal for a client with a large investment bank. Went to lunch and in the elevator overhead 2 guys discussing a similar transaction for a competitor. Reported it to the manager with whom I was working. Later that day I went to a meeting in a different building. Same 2 guys in an elevator repeating what I had heard earlier. You figure it out.
Fine in theory, but I'm fairly sure the number of people who come in to the shop for some casual browsing far outweigh the number of people interested in the products. Apple don't mind this because the place "looks" busy. As a potential buyer, it puts me off no end which is why I avoid the place except to get a hands on with the latest gadget.
Not even close. Thats the entire point. People come in because they WANT to touch the stuff. This is everything a brick and mortar retailer hopes for. If you don't understand how this inevitably leads to fantastic sales numbers, then you don't understand retail at all.
The market's too big for any one person to have that effect. Unless you literally own a few % points of the outstanding shares.
Truly. I always have to laugh when people show up on stock discussion sites shouting BUY! BUY! BUY! or SELL! SELL! SELL! as if their touting is going to change anyone's opinions, let alone, move the markets.
I don't always completely agree with Andy's analysis, but I think he does serious AAPL investors a real service. Years ago we had the aaplinvestor.com site, also much better at forecasting results for Apple than the so-called pros, but he gave that up a long time back. Andy is definitely filling a void and deserves to be thanked for his efforts.
Are they? The ones I have been in were full of people browsing the internet on the computers, it made it difficult to look at things.
That's true, but they're also apparently buying: Apple stores are reputed to have the highest sales per square foot of any mass-market retailer. What I haven't seen are year over year average sales numbers for stores open at least 13 months, which is the industry standard for defining retail success.
I was negative on Apple opening retail stores, but like almost everything else they've done, they were right and they made it a winner. It's one of the reasons Apple was able to weather the recession so well (another surprise to me) and proof that consumers are willing to spend, even in tough economic times, if you have the right formula. The retailers who are getting hurt in this recession (most of them) sell the "same old" tired merchandise in the "same old" environments with poor customer service. When the economy was running hot, they were able to get away with it. But in a tough economy, it doesn't work.
The thing you see at Apple stores that you don't see elsewhere is a level of energy and excitement that other retailers don't seem able to replicate. You don't sense it at other retailers selling phones, you don't see it in electronics showrooms (you would have thought that large screen TV, 3D and high-quality audio retailers could replicate this) and you certainly don't see it at other computer retailers.
When Jobs leaves Apple, he should go teach at Harvard Business School to train the next generation of our business leaders. Our current business leaders, for the most part, are only concerned about their bonuses and stock options, not creating the "next great thing."
....Quite often, investors are forced to unload their biggest winners in order to meet hedge fund redemption requests. Other times funds de-risk by shifting-away from an equity strategy to the safe haven of less riskier assets in fixed income......
While I agree that this article is well written and basically on the spot about Apple and the market, I just have to wonder....
These anal --- yst seem to be saying either whats put in front of them by others,,, or actively trying to push Apple stock up or down..... maybe so they can advise those that they sell their services to to go the other way.?????
Watching people write about Apple like they sit on the Board of Dir.. makes me wonder about their motives.... Just stupid or with a motive.
Tell your clients to sell Apple at 275... Then post articles repeating every bad but basically not true thing you can find..... as Apple stock hits 230... tell your clients to buy........ then blog how Apple is a great value and watch the stocks rise. (or do the opposite) either way watch the stock bounce.
Warren Buffet said...... buy stock in a company you know and like how they operate. That is the only true metric.... And buy for the long term.
When Jobs leaves Apple, he should go teach at Harvard Business School to train the next generation of our business leaders. Our current business leaders, for the most part, are only concerned about their bonuses and stock options, not creating the "next great thing."
A great thought. Or he should write a book. I wonder if he's got that urge, though. Steve has always been so intensely private, my guess is he's never going to give us that peek behind the veil.
Not even close. Thats the entire point. People come in because they WANT to touch the stuff. This is everything a brick and mortar retailer hopes for. If you don't understand how this inevitably leads to fantastic sales numbers, then you don't understand retail at all.
Not that I'm wanting to stereotype, but the average "customer" in the local apple shop here is a 15 year old girl with about 5 pounds in her wallet. Seriously, every saturday our local shop is full of them and every other mac is showing facebook. Or maybe porn (no, not joking). Yes people do buy stuff, but the atmosphere is hostile to real customers wanting to spend money, at least at what might be considered "busy" times. It obviously works for apple, because they do not stop it, but still. As a technical shopper, who knows what I'm looking at, it is unpleasant.
Granted, when I have bought (or wanted to speak to an expert) the service is brilliant. But the fact that the place is a part-time cybercafe IS real. At least in the appleshop in Southampton (UK).
Comments
Apple has less than 10% of the CPU market (best guess)
Apple has less than 14.2% of the smartphone market (sales Q22010)
Apple has less than 2.7% of the cell phone market (sales Q22010)
The only business where Apple dominantes is the iPod/iTunes business. iTunes makes ver little profit, while iPods make some good cash - but that is a maturing market, and the sales are largely upgrades. If Apple was only iPods I woud agree with you.
There is lots of room for growth on the other three, and there is evidence that the iPod 'halo effect' has morphed into an 'iPad halo effect'. And the iPad is bought already by many corporations... Much growth to be expected in the CPU arena, imho. E.g. a large State University I work at seems to be shifting form Dells to iMacs (and installs Windows) because of the great quality reputation, and lower cost of ownership (I'm not sure the lower cost of ownership holds up with Windows installed, but that is what is happening)
The main question is: Can Apple keep those phenomenal margins, thus profits, and can it continue to innovate as much as it has with a bare bone research budget [yes Apple research budget is a (small?) fraction of Microsoft]
The other question that plagues me, what is Apple going to do with all of that cash???? If the growth continues, the few 100 mills being spent on acquisitions is not going to make much of a dent in the Billions of $ cash pile... And Apple can't really buy a really big company that costs billions, the culture would not transfer or translate, and there would be a serious risk of beginning a rot from within form loss of the culture. Better if Apple grows, and in so has everyone on board, culturally speaking. And, do not underestimate the importance of corporate culture for long term success! Short term success with cost cutting, lucky product, etc. possible. Sustained success and continued innovation needs more than managers minding the bottom line, it needs a certain way of thinking from every employee, all of the time.
I smell a dividend of Alpine proportions some day, better own stock to get your piece of that action.
Just some thoughts.
Apple is growing faster in foreign countries and the market penetration of the Mac worldwide is less than 5%... so the current average growth rate of 30% is sustainable. Same for the iPhone. The iPad is totally new category that is in hypergrowth.
Apple is a gorilla company and this kind of company tend to beat forecasts for many years till the market gets saturated... like MSFT, INTC, CSCO in their heyday. Got to sell when sales start to tapper... actually before then. The exit strategy is tricky.
If they're good at predicting stock prices, they won't be sharing their knowledge. They'd instead be making a killing in the stock market.
Simple logic tells you that an accurate stock analyst cannot exist.
If they're good at predicting stock prices, they won't be sharing their knowledge. They'd instead be making a killing in the stock market.
Contrary to that belief, I do wish to help people as much as possible, and I have made a killing in the markets. Those two ideas aren't diametrically opposed though intuition says they might be.
Are they? The ones I have been in were full of people browsing the internet on the computers, it made it difficult to look at things.
Most apple shops are facebook-cafes. At least in the UK.
Contrary to that belief, I do wish to help people as much as possible, and I have made a killing in the markets. Those two ideas aren't diametrically opposed though intuition says they might be.
Zero-sum-game seems to imply that, the more people you help, the less you can help each...
Zero-sum-game seems to imply that, the more people you help, the less you can help each...
The market's too big for any one person to have that effect. Unless you literally own a few % points of the outstanding shares.
Just didn't have significant capital in 2008-9 to take advantage of this. Oh well, there's still at least 10-20% (if not 50%) upside in the 'long term' as you put it
Most apple shops are facebook-cafes. At least in the UK.
The strategy is that many of these facebook/twitter/email users are first time Mac users being introduced to the Mac and may well become future customers. Getting people to try out your product is a great way to introduce them to what you're selling. It seems to work
The strategy is that many of these facebook/twitter/email users are first time Mac users being introduced to the Mac and may well become future customers. Getting people to try out your product is a great way to introduce them to what you're selling. It seems to work
Fine in theory, but I'm fairly sure the number of people who come in to the shop for some casual browsing far outweigh the number of people interested in the products. Apple don't mind this because the place "looks" busy. As a potential buyer, it puts me off no end which is why I avoid the place except to get a hands on with the latest gadget.
I'm planning to sink 40 to 50,000 euros into Apple stock in the next few months. I'm willing to bet that in a year or two the stock will be worth quite a bit more; I don't think 44% growth is unreasonable.
Truly experienced market participants will read a post like yours with great alarm. Once the fish start jumping in and expecting returns like that, the end is nigh
Rumor and innuendo drive the market - not facts. Wall Street Brokers and Analysts are very good at sensing public perception and acting on it. That has nothing to do with fundamentals or business acumen.
Does anyone really know what goes on on Wall Street? This is slightly off-topic but instructive. I was working on a deal for a client with a large investment bank. Went to lunch and in the elevator overhead 2 guys discussing a similar transaction for a competitor. Reported it to the manager with whom I was working. Later that day I went to a meeting in a different building. Same 2 guys in an elevator repeating what I had heard earlier. You figure it out.
Thanks...
Fine in theory, but I'm fairly sure the number of people who come in to the shop for some casual browsing far outweigh the number of people interested in the products. Apple don't mind this because the place "looks" busy. As a potential buyer, it puts me off no end which is why I avoid the place except to get a hands on with the latest gadget.
Not even close. Thats the entire point. People come in because they WANT to touch the stuff. This is everything a brick and mortar retailer hopes for. If you don't understand how this inevitably leads to fantastic sales numbers, then you don't understand retail at all.
The market's too big for any one person to have that effect. Unless you literally own a few % points of the outstanding shares.
Truly. I always have to laugh when people show up on stock discussion sites shouting BUY! BUY! BUY! or SELL! SELL! SELL! as if their touting is going to change anyone's opinions, let alone, move the markets.
I don't always completely agree with Andy's analysis, but I think he does serious AAPL investors a real service. Years ago we had the aaplinvestor.com site, also much better at forecasting results for Apple than the so-called pros, but he gave that up a long time back. Andy is definitely filling a void and deserves to be thanked for his efforts.
Are they? The ones I have been in were full of people browsing the internet on the computers, it made it difficult to look at things.
That's true, but they're also apparently buying: Apple stores are reputed to have the highest sales per square foot of any mass-market retailer. What I haven't seen are year over year average sales numbers for stores open at least 13 months, which is the industry standard for defining retail success.
I was negative on Apple opening retail stores, but like almost everything else they've done, they were right and they made it a winner. It's one of the reasons Apple was able to weather the recession so well (another surprise to me) and proof that consumers are willing to spend, even in tough economic times, if you have the right formula. The retailers who are getting hurt in this recession (most of them) sell the "same old" tired merchandise in the "same old" environments with poor customer service. When the economy was running hot, they were able to get away with it. But in a tough economy, it doesn't work.
The thing you see at Apple stores that you don't see elsewhere is a level of energy and excitement that other retailers don't seem able to replicate. You don't sense it at other retailers selling phones, you don't see it in electronics showrooms (you would have thought that large screen TV, 3D and high-quality audio retailers could replicate this) and you certainly don't see it at other computer retailers.
When Jobs leaves Apple, he should go teach at Harvard Business School to train the next generation of our business leaders. Our current business leaders, for the most part, are only concerned about their bonuses and stock options, not creating the "next great thing."
....Quite often, investors are forced to unload their biggest winners in order to meet hedge fund redemption requests. Other times funds de-risk by shifting-away from an equity strategy to the safe haven of less riskier assets in fixed income......
While I agree that this article is well written and basically on the spot about Apple and the market, I just have to wonder....
These anal --- yst seem to be saying either whats put in front of them by others,,, or actively trying to push Apple stock up or down..... maybe so they can advise those that they sell their services to to go the other way.?????
Watching people write about Apple like they sit on the Board of Dir.. makes me wonder about their motives.... Just stupid or with a motive.
Tell your clients to sell Apple at 275... Then post articles repeating every bad but basically not true thing you can find..... as Apple stock hits 230... tell your clients to buy........ then blog how Apple is a great value and watch the stocks rise. (or do the opposite) either way watch the stock bounce.
Warren Buffet said...... buy stock in a company you know and like how they operate. That is the only true metric.... And buy for the long term.
Just a thought,
en
When Jobs leaves Apple, he should go teach at Harvard Business School to train the next generation of our business leaders. Our current business leaders, for the most part, are only concerned about their bonuses and stock options, not creating the "next great thing."
A great thought. Or he should write a book. I wonder if he's got that urge, though. Steve has always been so intensely private, my guess is he's never going to give us that peek behind the veil.
Not even close. Thats the entire point. People come in because they WANT to touch the stuff. This is everything a brick and mortar retailer hopes for. If you don't understand how this inevitably leads to fantastic sales numbers, then you don't understand retail at all.
Not that I'm wanting to stereotype, but the average "customer" in the local apple shop here is a 15 year old girl with about 5 pounds in her wallet. Seriously, every saturday our local shop is full of them and every other mac is showing facebook. Or maybe porn (no, not joking). Yes people do buy stuff, but the atmosphere is hostile to real customers wanting to spend money, at least at what might be considered "busy" times. It obviously works for apple, because they do not stop it, but still. As a technical shopper, who knows what I'm looking at, it is unpleasant.
Granted, when I have bought (or wanted to speak to an expert) the service is brilliant. But the fact that the place is a part-time cybercafe IS real. At least in the appleshop in Southampton (UK).