Your post is utterly unspecific. Why could you be so shure? Apple did a lot off stuff, most people found even more unlikely than an all-in-one TV in 1 - 3 years
But none of which involved SKUs that
- are physically large, there requiring huge warehouse and display expenses.
- must be stocked in a wide variety of options (anywhere from 30" to 100")
- are low margin
- are better distributed through big box stores, and made by high volume manufacturers
- offer less upgradability that is far better served with a simple box plugged into any existing monitor.
If there were odds in Vegas of Apple going into the Best Buy business, I'd put a BIG wager against it, and start planning my retirement.
edit: Ask yourself... What happens when Apple release v2 of a 60" Apple TV? People will upgrade a $99 box. Upgrading a huge monitor is not a trivial decision or activity. All in one boxes are dead ends. Not Apple's model.
It's way undervalued, but frankly I won't buy again unless it hits $185 or $190... which is a distinct possibility the way things are looking. The market these days is even less rational than usual. There must be massive short activity to keep AAPL as depressed as it is now.
Although no one can predict the market with any degree of certainy, I'd be willing to bet we have seen the last of sub 200.00 apple (unless we see a market collapse like 2008).
August 9 ... Dow at 10,719.56 ... Nasdaq at 2,309.33 ... Apple at 261.75
August 25 .. Dow at 10,060.06 ... Nasdaq at 2,141.54 .. Apple at 242.89
Dow (-659.50), Nasdaq (-167.79), Apple (-18.86)
This, imho, is a huge buying opportunity.
This "trend" is market-wide (summer doldrums) ... think "sell in May, go away ... buy in fall, make money pile tall".
Even more so for Apple as it's two biggest retail periods are directly in front of them .... back to school and Christmas.
I bought one of those in '94, branded as a Performa+ 630 and it was a dog as was System 7.5.
If Apple really intend to bring out an HDTV there will need to be a compelling added value reason to make consumers steer away from offerings from the likes of Sony.
Perhaps a tarted up next gen iMac enclosed in a 50" screen.
August 9 ... Dow at 10,719.56 ... Nasdaq at 2,309.33 ... Apple at 261.75
August 25 .. Dow at 10,060.06 ... Nasdaq at 2,141.54 .. Apple at 242.89
Dow (-659.50), Nasdaq (-167.79), Apple (-18.86)
This, imho, is a huge buying opportunity.
Not sure I get your point. Apple and Nasdaq both down 7.27%; Dow down 6.15%. Using the statistics you cite would seem to argue that apple's future would match the indices whose fall it matched, no? Few people are excited about the market's prospects in the next six months ("watch money pile tall" notwithstanding!)
I wouldn't exclude an apple run-up in the balance of the year, I just don't see how your stats support the conclusion you seem to be making. Or do you feel this is a huge buying opp'y for the market in general?
I wouldn't exclude an apple run-up in the balance of the year, I just don't see how your stats support the conclusion you seem to be making. Or do you feel this is a huge buying opp'y for the market in general?
Or maybe it's just easy to give anonymous market advice to strangers.
I wouldn't exclude an apple run-up in the balance of the year, I just don't see how your stats support the conclusion you seem to be making. Or do you feel this is a huge buying opp'y for the market in general?
Generally speaking, I don't favor trying to gauge the entire market as opposed to a few select companies.
In looking at Apple, since 2004, with the exception of 2008, when the financial world went to hell in a handbasket, .... Apple has always finished the year higher than it was in mid-summer.
Again, I think this points to the major retail volumes happening in the back to school and Christmas seasons combined.
Am I trying to tell everyone to buy Apple? Hell no. I'm just saying that Apple has followed the market down and if one thinks that Apple is going to finish the year strong .... as it has in 5 out of the last 6 years ... then this would be, imo, a terrific buying opportunity.
Let's face it, when a person is trying to decide to buy or sell a stock, it's always a gamble ..... you hope you're on the right side of a trend ... but there are no guarantees. I'm just betting Apple is going to make it 6 out of 7.
Am I not allowed to predict the stock market in relation to Apple? This whole website is filled with Apple predictions ... future hardware .. software, whatever....
So how come you got a burr up your ass when I was responding to SpamSandwich who was wondering what was going on with Apple stock price?
You lost a bundle on the market or something? If I responded to you that way every time you tried to figure out what was coming down the road at Apple .... I'd have CTS from all the typing. .... give me a break.
Am I not allowed to predict the stock market in relation to Apple? This whole website is filled with Apple predictions ... future hardware .. software, whatever....
So how come you got a burr up your ass when I was responding to SpamSandwich who was wondering what was going on with Apple stock price?
You lost a bundle on the market or something? If I responded to you that way every time you tried to figure out what was coming down the road at Apple .... I'd have CTS from all the typing. .... give me a break.
Oh, good grief. Talk about having a burr up your backside.
The point was, you started out talking about the difficulty of making specific predictions, then you went on to make... specific predictions. Pardon me for pointing this out. As I said, I think you should have stuck with your first idea. Nobody can really predict stock prices, which doesn't prevent a lot of people from making them. Unless they have special knowledge that the rest of market lacks, then perhaps they should refrain.
Incidentally, I also responded to this question. It's not a conspiracy, it's a lousy market. Nobody knows when or even if it's going to get better, or whether it's going to get much much worse before it gets any better. But predict away -- I'm sure lots of people are begging for your advice.
BTW, I have NEVER tried to predict anything related to Apple's stock price, even after owning it for 13 years.
Nobody knows when or even if it's going to get better, or whether it's going to get much much worse before it gets any better..
I do.(yeah I know we have been here before )
I predict that it will get better, and I can say that with 99.9999% certainty.
I predict another slump in the next 1.5 weeks with 65% certainty.
I predict at least a 15% rise within 10 weeks with 80% certainty.
It's just probability, science itself is based on probability predictions.
Sure, I can't be 100% accurate, but for the purpose of making money my accuracy weighs considerably in my favour on average. And thats all that matters, to me anyway.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss
BTW, I have NEVER tried to predict anything related to Apple's stock price, even after owning it for 13 years.
So did you buy the stock just for fun? Surely you made an educated prediction that over time your investment would reward you?
Also I predict that you must still hang on to elements of your original prediction even now, else surely you would sell the stock?
With Apple's annual media-centric keynote now set for Sept. 1, Piper Jaffray has advised investors to buy shares of AAPL prior to the event, citing past stock boosts after new iPods were unveiled..."We believe that investors generally anticipate the Sept. event by the beginning of the month, and anticipation builds ahead of the holiday shopping season with Apple's iPod lineup (along with Macs and other products) set for holiday sales," he said. "However, keep in mind that historical trends are not necessarily an indicator of future events."
Mr. Jaffray is right to include that last caveat. The last few days of the stock market have been pretty rough. And one thing we know about Apple stock is that its short term price isn't immune to market trends. In addition, it's been my experience that many Apple stockholders exhibit more distrust than the usual stockholder, and tend to bail out earlier and in larger numbers. Not sure why - if you've held long you've been very well taken care of - but it's true nonetheless.
I'd personally feel pretty comfortable in saying that if you want to buy some Apple stock and put it in a drawer for a couple of years, you'd do just fine for yourself. And I'd say with the recent pullback in the stock prices this is a particularly good time to set yourself up a long term position. Historically, the P/E ratio is very low for Apple. It has a huge reserve of cash, and its EPS is growing by leaps and bounds.
Back in '97, I compared Apple to a cork on the Titanic. I said it would definitely get pulled down by the suction, along with everything else. But, I said, it would also float to the top a lot quicker after the Titanic finally hit bottom.
And so it has. The only question is - is the Titanic through sinking? Maybe yes, maybe no. But a lot of people are certainly afraid that it is, and in some ways that's just as bad....
So did you buy the stock just for fun? Surely you made an educated prediction that over time your investment would reward you?
Also I predict that you must still hang on to elements of your original prediction even now, else surely you would sell the stock?
I have my ideas obviously, but they are all very long term (hence, the term of my investment) and keep them to myself, if only because I don't pretend to know what's going to happen over any period of time. I suppose given that I invested in AAPL 13 years ago I could advertise myself as some sort of investment sage, but I've never felt up to it. Over the years, I've learned the value of my own predictive powers the hard way, and I would not want anyone to feel like they can rely upon any buying or selling advice I might give. I get asked a lot, but I refuse to give any. Do your own research, make your own decisions, is my only advice.
....and I would not want anyone to feel like they can rely upon any buying or selling advice I might give. I get asked a lot, but I refuse to give any. Do your own research, make your own decisions, is my only advice.
I certainly agree with you there. If any of my friends ask for advice I flat refuse nowadays. I remember a while back I gave advice to a good friend and his life savings dwindled to around 60% of his initial investment. My name was dirt. People loved to chat about how bad my prediction was. But the fundamentals of the prediction were sound, the stock turned round, and another 6 months later he was up considerably.
But I did not enjoy those 6 months. I get no praise for his eventual good fortune. People only remember the bad news!
The point was, you started out talking about the difficulty of making specific predictions, then you went on to make... specific predictions.
When I use phrases like: I'd be willing to bet or This, imho, would seem to indicate an opinion, not a specific prediction.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss
Pardon me for pointing this out.
Wrongly .... but pardon me while I point that out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss
I think you should have stuck with your first idea. Nobody can really predict stock prices, which doesn't prevent a lot of people from making them. Unless they have special knowledge that the rest of market lacks, then perhaps they should refrain.
Well, that would be your OPINION then, wouldn't it? Do you see how that works?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss
But predict away -- I'm sure lots of people are begging for your advice.
I see you have over 3400 posts ..... At what point did the condescending attitude kick in? ... and when can we look forward to it leaving?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss
BTW, I have NEVER tried to predict anything related to Apple's stock price, even after owning it for 13 years.
BTW ... Who asked .... and the attitude just keeps coming and coming ...
Am I not allowed to predict the stock market in relation to Apple? This whole website is filled with Apple predictions ... future hardware .. software, whatever....
Sure you can but you won't be right. No one will at this point unless good old shit luck plays a role.
Here in the US we are having a very important election cycle about to happen. History has proven that during these times the market tends to take a wait and see approach. If the Republicans do take the House and we end up with a lame duck President then God only knows what the market will do.
Apple and many companies for that matter are victims or our economy and are following the trends of the market not how well their business is doing.
Comments
Your post is utterly unspecific. Why could you be so shure? Apple did a lot off stuff, most people found even more unlikely than an all-in-one TV in 1 - 3 years
But none of which involved SKUs that
- are physically large, there requiring huge warehouse and display expenses.
- must be stocked in a wide variety of options (anywhere from 30" to 100")
- are low margin
- are better distributed through big box stores, and made by high volume manufacturers
- offer less upgradability that is far better served with a simple box plugged into any existing monitor.
If there were odds in Vegas of Apple going into the Best Buy business, I'd put a BIG wager against it, and start planning my retirement.
edit: Ask yourself... What happens when Apple release v2 of a 60" Apple TV? People will upgrade a $99 box. Upgrading a huge monitor is not a trivial decision or activity. All in one boxes are dead ends. Not Apple's model.
It's way undervalued, but frankly I won't buy again unless it hits $185 or $190... which is a distinct possibility the way things are looking. The market these days is even less rational than usual. There must be massive short activity to keep AAPL as depressed as it is now.
Although no one can predict the market with any degree of certainy, I'd be willing to bet we have seen the last of sub 200.00 apple (unless we see a market collapse like 2008).
August 9 ... Dow at 10,719.56 ... Nasdaq at 2,309.33 ... Apple at 261.75
August 25 .. Dow at 10,060.06 ... Nasdaq at 2,141.54 .. Apple at 242.89
Dow (-659.50), Nasdaq (-167.79), Apple (-18.86)
This, imho, is a huge buying opportunity.
This "trend" is market-wide (summer doldrums) ... think "sell in May, go away ... buy in fall, make money pile tall".
Even more so for Apple as it's two biggest retail periods are directly in front of them .... back to school and Christmas.
This, imho, is a huge buying opportunity!
You mean never AGAIN?
I bought one of those in '94, branded as a Performa+ 630 and it was a dog as was System 7.5.
If Apple really intend to bring out an HDTV there will need to be a compelling added value reason to make consumers steer away from offerings from the likes of Sony.
Perhaps a tarted up next gen iMac enclosed in a 50" screen.
You mean never AGAIN?
That was Apple minus SJ, not the same animal.
Although no one can predict the market with any degree of certainy,
You should have stopped right there.
That was Apple minus SJ, not the same animal.
I'm not arguing for or against, just pointing out that Apple did go the TV route once upon a time.
You mean never AGAIN?
That is one ugly television..
August 9 ... Dow at 10,719.56 ... Nasdaq at 2,309.33 ... Apple at 261.75
August 25 .. Dow at 10,060.06 ... Nasdaq at 2,141.54 .. Apple at 242.89
Dow (-659.50), Nasdaq (-167.79), Apple (-18.86)
This, imho, is a huge buying opportunity.
Not sure I get your point. Apple and Nasdaq both down 7.27%; Dow down 6.15%. Using the statistics you cite would seem to argue that apple's future would match the indices whose fall it matched, no? Few people are excited about the market's prospects in the next six months ("watch money pile tall" notwithstanding!)
I wouldn't exclude an apple run-up in the balance of the year, I just don't see how your stats support the conclusion you seem to be making. Or do you feel this is a huge buying opp'y for the market in general?
I wouldn't exclude an apple run-up in the balance of the year, I just don't see how your stats support the conclusion you seem to be making. Or do you feel this is a huge buying opp'y for the market in general?
Or maybe it's just easy to give anonymous market advice to strangers.
You should have stopped right there.
Care to elaborate?
Care to elaborate?
Because then you went on to make predictions.
I wouldn't exclude an apple run-up in the balance of the year, I just don't see how your stats support the conclusion you seem to be making. Or do you feel this is a huge buying opp'y for the market in general?
Generally speaking, I don't favor trying to gauge the entire market as opposed to a few select companies.
In looking at Apple, since 2004, with the exception of 2008, when the financial world went to hell in a handbasket, .... Apple has always finished the year higher than it was in mid-summer.
Again, I think this points to the major retail volumes happening in the back to school and Christmas seasons combined.
Am I trying to tell everyone to buy Apple? Hell no. I'm just saying that Apple has followed the market down and if one thinks that Apple is going to finish the year strong .... as it has in 5 out of the last 6 years ... then this would be, imo, a terrific buying opportunity.
Let's face it, when a person is trying to decide to buy or sell a stock, it's always a gamble ..... you hope you're on the right side of a trend ... but there are no guarantees. I'm just betting Apple is going to make it 6 out of 7.
Because then you went on to make predictions.
Am I not allowed to predict the stock market in relation to Apple? This whole website is filled with Apple predictions ... future hardware .. software, whatever....
So how come you got a burr up your ass when I was responding to SpamSandwich who was wondering what was going on with Apple stock price?
You lost a bundle on the market or something? If I responded to you that way every time you tried to figure out what was coming down the road at Apple .... I'd have CTS from all the typing. .... give me a break.
Am I not allowed to predict the stock market in relation to Apple? This whole website is filled with Apple predictions ... future hardware .. software, whatever....
So how come you got a burr up your ass when I was responding to SpamSandwich who was wondering what was going on with Apple stock price?
You lost a bundle on the market or something? If I responded to you that way every time you tried to figure out what was coming down the road at Apple .... I'd have CTS from all the typing. .... give me a break.
Oh, good grief. Talk about having a burr up your backside.
The point was, you started out talking about the difficulty of making specific predictions, then you went on to make... specific predictions. Pardon me for pointing this out. As I said, I think you should have stuck with your first idea. Nobody can really predict stock prices, which doesn't prevent a lot of people from making them. Unless they have special knowledge that the rest of market lacks, then perhaps they should refrain.
Incidentally, I also responded to this question. It's not a conspiracy, it's a lousy market. Nobody knows when or even if it's going to get better, or whether it's going to get much much worse before it gets any better. But predict away -- I'm sure lots of people are begging for your advice.
BTW, I have NEVER tried to predict anything related to Apple's stock price, even after owning it for 13 years.
Nobody knows when or even if it's going to get better, or whether it's going to get much much worse before it gets any better..
I do.(yeah I know we have been here before
I predict that it will get better, and I can say that with 99.9999% certainty.
I predict another slump in the next 1.5 weeks with 65% certainty.
I predict at least a 15% rise within 10 weeks with 80% certainty.
It's just probability, science itself is based on probability predictions.
Sure, I can't be 100% accurate, but for the purpose of making money my accuracy weighs considerably in my favour on average. And thats all that matters, to me anyway.
BTW, I have NEVER tried to predict anything related to Apple's stock price, even after owning it for 13 years.
So did you buy the stock just for fun? Surely you made an educated prediction that over time your investment would reward you?
Also I predict that you must still hang on to elements of your original prediction even now, else surely you would sell the stock?
With Apple's annual media-centric keynote now set for Sept. 1, Piper Jaffray has advised investors to buy shares of AAPL prior to the event, citing past stock boosts after new iPods were unveiled..."We believe that investors generally anticipate the Sept. event by the beginning of the month, and anticipation builds ahead of the holiday shopping season with Apple's iPod lineup (along with Macs and other products) set for holiday sales," he said. "However, keep in mind that historical trends are not necessarily an indicator of future events."
Mr. Jaffray is right to include that last caveat. The last few days of the stock market have been pretty rough. And one thing we know about Apple stock is that its short term price isn't immune to market trends. In addition, it's been my experience that many Apple stockholders exhibit more distrust than the usual stockholder, and tend to bail out earlier and in larger numbers. Not sure why - if you've held long you've been very well taken care of - but it's true nonetheless.
I'd personally feel pretty comfortable in saying that if you want to buy some Apple stock and put it in a drawer for a couple of years, you'd do just fine for yourself. And I'd say with the recent pullback in the stock prices this is a particularly good time to set yourself up a long term position. Historically, the P/E ratio is very low for Apple. It has a huge reserve of cash, and its EPS is growing by leaps and bounds.
Back in '97, I compared Apple to a cork on the Titanic. I said it would definitely get pulled down by the suction, along with everything else. But, I said, it would also float to the top a lot quicker after the Titanic finally hit bottom.
And so it has. The only question is - is the Titanic through sinking? Maybe yes, maybe no. But a lot of people are certainly afraid that it is, and in some ways that's just as bad....
So did you buy the stock just for fun? Surely you made an educated prediction that over time your investment would reward you?
Also I predict that you must still hang on to elements of your original prediction even now, else surely you would sell the stock?
I have my ideas obviously, but they are all very long term (hence, the term of my investment) and keep them to myself, if only because I don't pretend to know what's going to happen over any period of time. I suppose given that I invested in AAPL 13 years ago I could advertise myself as some sort of investment sage, but I've never felt up to it. Over the years, I've learned the value of my own predictive powers the hard way, and I would not want anyone to feel like they can rely upon any buying or selling advice I might give. I get asked a lot, but I refuse to give any. Do your own research, make your own decisions, is my only advice.
....and I would not want anyone to feel like they can rely upon any buying or selling advice I might give. I get asked a lot, but I refuse to give any. Do your own research, make your own decisions, is my only advice.
I certainly agree with you there. If any of my friends ask for advice I flat refuse nowadays. I remember a while back I gave advice to a good friend and his life savings dwindled to around 60% of his initial investment. My name was dirt. People loved to chat about how bad my prediction was. But the fundamentals of the prediction were sound, the stock turned round, and another 6 months later he was up considerably.
But I did not enjoy those 6 months. I get no praise for his eventual good fortune. People only remember the bad news!
The point was, you started out talking about the difficulty of making specific predictions, then you went on to make... specific predictions.
When I use phrases like: I'd be willing to bet or This, imho, would seem to indicate an opinion, not a specific prediction.
Pardon me for pointing this out.
Wrongly .... but pardon me while I point that out.
I think you should have stuck with your first idea. Nobody can really predict stock prices, which doesn't prevent a lot of people from making them. Unless they have special knowledge that the rest of market lacks, then perhaps they should refrain.
Well, that would be your OPINION then, wouldn't it? Do you see how that works?
But predict away -- I'm sure lots of people are begging for your advice.
I see you have over 3400 posts ..... At what point did the condescending attitude kick in? ... and when can we look forward to it leaving?
BTW, I have NEVER tried to predict anything related to Apple's stock price, even after owning it for 13 years.
BTW ... Who asked .... and the attitude just keeps coming and coming ...
Am I not allowed to predict the stock market in relation to Apple? This whole website is filled with Apple predictions ... future hardware .. software, whatever....
Sure you can but you won't be right. No one will at this point unless good old shit luck plays a role.
Here in the US we are having a very important election cycle about to happen. History has proven that during these times the market tends to take a wait and see approach. If the Republicans do take the House and we end up with a lame duck President then God only knows what the market will do.
Apple and many companies for that matter are victims or our economy and are following the trends of the market not how well their business is doing.
When I use phrases like: I'd be willing to bet or This, imho, would seem to indicate an [B]opinion[/B... etc etc
BTW ... Who asked .... and the attitude just keeps coming and coming ...
Oh internets, you never fail.