I'm not sure where everyone got the 570 million CDMA subscribers in China from. That might be total number of subscribers in the country but recent reports state that China Telecom which recently acquired the CDMA network from China Unicom consolidating pretty much all of the Chinese CDMA network under one roof plans to have the worlds largest CDMA network by the end of 2010. As of right now Verizon still has the largest CDMA network in the world. As of Q1, after the acquisition of China Unicom's CDMA assets, China Telecom had a CDMA subscriber base of 65million. Which is still dwarfed by Verizon's 80M+ That will change by the end of the year of course. Give the 5x population size of China vs US and all... :P
Also, don't forget Sprint and Verizon's networks are cross compatible (excluding Sprint's limited WiMax of course) so Sprint + Verizon = 130 million subscribers. Still way more than China Telecom will have by the end of the year.
Americans also have a much larger appetite for data and smartphones versus Chinese. Plus our traffic isn't filtered and censored :P
Personally I think the Verizon CEO chatter was probably more for Google's benefit as well as Apple's. Even though polls have shown AT&T won't experience an exodus if there's a Verizon iPhone, what will happen if Verizon iPhone rumors are confirmed, especially with iPhone 4 reception reputation, is people will wait. Especially since there's so much chatter about Early 2011 being the release date. People who are considering either an iPhone 4 on AT&T now or a Droid X etc on Verizon now would wait, canabilizing both company's sales for the rest of the year. Sure it'd hurt Apple less, they'd pick up the sales after the VZW iPhone is released and then some but this is America where now is more important than later and if anything locking a subscriber into an AT&T iPhone means they might buy another on Verizon later. Win-win for Apple.
The bottomline is, for me anyway, there's been a ridiculous amount of these rumors year after year as such I'll believe it when I see it. But I will admit there's a whole lot more chatter as I mentioned about it this time around.
I don't know why people keep talking about the damn chipset. The Qualcomm chipset rumor has pretty much been verified, especially since Qualcomm has iPhone job postings on its website now. Even with the LTE talk from the VZW CEO it doesn't change a thing. Qualcomm already has a chipset that's compatible with GSM/CDMA AND LTE networks. Apple has already shown it goes out and gets cutting edge tech all the time and pushes the envelope so the talk that the chipsets are too new or will only turn up in data devices next year I think are bogus. The talk that Verizon's network not being able to currently handle simul-voice and data are also irrelevant. No simul-voice/data hasn't stopped Android one bit.
You know what the overwhelming reason why the Verizon iPhone rumors are most likely true is? Steve Jobs wants to crush Google. Android's phenomenal success is owed in part to the AT&T Apple exclusivity agreement. Jobs' is on record saying the animosity with Google stems from "they chose to compete with us" which refers directly to Android. Android's success will take a big hit if there's a Verizon iPhone and even more so if there's one on Sprint and T-Mobile as well. Remember, Jobs has been in this EXACT SAME POSITION once before, 20 years ago. Only it was Bill Gates pulling the wool over his eyes saying they weren't going to compete and they could co-exist etc blah blah instead of Eric Schmidt. Jobs is smarter this time around though, and while he's pissed off he's not taking it personally like he did last time.
If the rumors are true, Renewing the AT&T exclusivity last year was a blunder by Jobs. Further exacerbated by keeping iPad on AT&T. It gave Android a big hole the size of the Titanic for them to exploit and fill which they have. Apple has a chance to course correct if they choose. If the rumors are false or the CDMA iPhones are for China and not the US then it'll be a terrible terrible blunder and settle in for the OS Wars part Deux with Google playing Microsoft. If the rumors are true then hopefully, for Apple's sake, it'll be like the iPod. A little late to the game but not too late and they can go on to success.
Bottomline though, I'll believe it when I see it. (And if I don't see, time to start shorting Apple cause it'll never make 400 like some analyst predict)
1) I?ll laugh if this is a CDMA iPhone for Sprint, not Verizon.
2) I?ll laugh even harder if it?s a GSM/TD-SCDMA iPhone for China Mobile?s 570 million subscribers, not a CDMA/CDMA2000 iPhone for the US.
Someone is a Big Bang Theory fan.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LewysBlackmore
Since the China market is much larger, I would anticipate these being created for that before Verizon/Sprint here in the US. Just for contrast for those who had forgotten the comparative sizes: Verizon (after recent Alltel acquisition) 92 million subscribers vs. 570 million China CDMA subscribers. That translates to just 16% of the Chinese market potential for Apple to seek as iPhone owners. Just in case there were commenters here that thought the global market didn't matter compared to the US market.
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism
It?s possible, and China Mobile certainly looks more willing to play ball with Apple than Verizon, but we need to consider the number of potential customers within each market as they surely differ. With 6.2x the subscriber size (which grows by 5 million per month) doesn?t that mean, with all other things being equal, that China Mobile only needs 1/6th the number of iPhone subscribers as Verizon in order to sell more units?
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism
Who said China had 570,000,000 CDMA subscriber?
I think people misunderstood the 570 million number you posted...
I think people misunderstood the 570 million number you posted...
Ah, I didn't see his post. Oddly, it's not uncommon for people to think China Mobile is CDMA when it's GSM for '2G' and their homegrown TD-SCDMA for '3G'.
If it's really iPhone 4 CDMA and not just iPhone CDMA or iPhone 4 M (multicarrier) I would put it in January timeframe. I think that it would be a great way to keep iPhone exciting and would create a 6 month developer cycle, without any major hardware refreshes.
IE Release GSM iPhone in the summer with iOS #, and then in the winter release a slightly upgraded (a bit faster processor maybe, or Ram) with iOS#.5 that introdues a few more improvements to the OS. You get a year round buzz like Android.
That?s LTE, not LTE Advanced. I was using an abbreviated initialism by writing LTEA. 2011 should have a lot of handsets with LTE, but I don?t think Apple will be there until 2012, at the earliest.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sheff
If it's really iPhone 4 CDMA and not just iPhone CDMA or iPhone 4 M (multicarrier) I would put it in January timeframe. I think that it would be a great way to keep iPhone exciting and would create a 6 month developer cycle, without any major hardware refreshes.
IE Release GSM iPhone in the summer with iOS #, and then in the winter release a slightly upgraded (a bit faster processor maybe, or Ram) with iOS#.5 that introdues a few more improvements to the OS. You get a year round buzz like Android.
That sounds reasonable to me. Do a mid-cycle release for this new HW.
This rag has just as much false rumors than truth, but wishful thinking leads fools to repeat their BS. If Asus' manufacturer Pegatrom were making a phone for Verizon's network, it is far more likely a knockoff and not a real Apple product.
And I responded to your "and LTE chips for handsets still aren’t going to show up until next year."
Ah, I was focusing on Verizon but I didn’t qualify my statement with that. It is almost the end of September, but if an LTE phone shows up on Verizon at December 31st i guess that also means I’m technically wrong.
I’m sure there will be more LTE handsets arriving this holiday season around the world, but they are just the “me first” devices because they think the milestone will award them some extra sales, despite how poor the device is. Come on, that’s a MVNO on MetroPCS! It’s akin to someone posting first in a forum for no other reason than to be first but having no substance, but you are technically right.
You could have also pointed out that chip vendors have been designing and building LTE chips for years now. I never said the “LTE chips for handsets” had to be devices ready for sale and being a post on Engadget is still “show[ing] up”.
Moving on, I don’t foresee any decent run LTE-based devices until 2011, after Verizon and other network.
Quote:
Why?
Why don’t I think Apple will lease an LTE iPhone until 2012 at the earliest?
Apple is rarely the first to use a tech first, just the first to use it across the board.
How many years was UMTS '3G' common among smartphones when the original '2G' only iPhone arrived? Jobs said the chips were too power hungry. Clearly this is a concern for Apple.
Apple's been releasing their iPhones in the beginning of Summer, which means we'd be getting a heads up of this LTE iPhone in a little over a half a year yet AT&T has no LTE network and will still be investing in HSDPA/HSUPA as it's not EOL like EV-DO.
Have yet to see an LTE chip that was smaller and more power efficient than what Apple is using. This takes time to engineer. You have to know Apple is concerned about power efficiency and size.
Why don?t I think Apple will lease an LTE iPhone until 2012 at the earliest?
Apple is rarely the first to use a tech first, just the first to use it across the board.
How many years was UMTS '3G' common among smartphones when the original '2G' only iPhone arrived? Jobs said the chips were too power hungry. Clearly this is a concern for Apple.
Apple's been releasing their iPhones in the beginning of Summer, which means we'd be getting a heads up of this LTE iPhone in a little over a half a year yet AT&T has no LTE network and will still be investing in HSDPA/HSUPA as it's not EOL like EV-DO.
Have yet to see an LTE chip that was smaller and more power efficient than what Apple is using. This take times to engineer. You have to know Apple is concerned about power efficiency and size.
I totally agree. AT&T and Verizon will just be in the beginning phases of implementing their LTE networks in 2011, so an Apple LTE phone before 2012 wouldn't be a smart move. Apple has never been concerned about being first, Apple has always been concerned about doing it right.
I totally agree. AT&T and Verizon will just be in the beginning phases of implementing their LTE networks in 2011, so an Apple LTE phone before 2012 wouldn't be a smart move. Apple has never been concerned about being first, Apple has always been concerned about doing it right.
I really can?t wait until these phones start getting tested and compared. I can?t see LTE being much better than WiMAX in power usage and mature HS*PA networks are likely to see dominate in up and down speeds Verizon will have next year.
I really can’t wait until these phones start getting tested and compared. I can’t see LTE being much better than WiMAX in power usage and mature HS*PA networks are likely to see dominate in up and down speeds Verizon will have next year.
The only real advantage that LTE will eventually have is that it is the new worldwide standard. I am not sure how compatible WIMAX will be with the standard. Regardless of that, for the next 2 years WIMAX might be the best choice in the USA as it has a head start.
The only real advantage that LTE will eventually have is that it is the new worldwide standard. I am not sure how compatible WIMAX will be with the standard. Regardless of that, for the next 2 years WIMAX might be the best choice in the USA as it has a head start.
HSPA is the best choice in the US for speed and coverage, and it?s a worldwide standard. I don?t see WiMAX going too much farther. Sprint will milk it but they?ll have to to migrate to LTE[A] if they want to move on. EVen Clearwire is said to be testing LTE right now.
Comments
Also, don't forget Sprint and Verizon's networks are cross compatible (excluding Sprint's limited WiMax of course) so Sprint + Verizon = 130 million subscribers. Still way more than China Telecom will have by the end of the year.
Americans also have a much larger appetite for data and smartphones versus Chinese. Plus our traffic isn't filtered and censored :P
ref: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/s...10-962159.html
Personally I think the Verizon CEO chatter was probably more for Google's benefit as well as Apple's. Even though polls have shown AT&T won't experience an exodus if there's a Verizon iPhone, what will happen if Verizon iPhone rumors are confirmed, especially with iPhone 4 reception reputation, is people will wait. Especially since there's so much chatter about Early 2011 being the release date. People who are considering either an iPhone 4 on AT&T now or a Droid X etc on Verizon now would wait, canabilizing both company's sales for the rest of the year. Sure it'd hurt Apple less, they'd pick up the sales after the VZW iPhone is released and then some but this is America where now is more important than later and if anything locking a subscriber into an AT&T iPhone means they might buy another on Verizon later. Win-win for Apple.
The bottomline is, for me anyway, there's been a ridiculous amount of these rumors year after year as such I'll believe it when I see it. But I will admit there's a whole lot more chatter as I mentioned about it this time around.
I don't know why people keep talking about the damn chipset. The Qualcomm chipset rumor has pretty much been verified, especially since Qualcomm has iPhone job postings on its website now. Even with the LTE talk from the VZW CEO it doesn't change a thing. Qualcomm already has a chipset that's compatible with GSM/CDMA AND LTE networks. Apple has already shown it goes out and gets cutting edge tech all the time and pushes the envelope so the talk that the chipsets are too new or will only turn up in data devices next year I think are bogus. The talk that Verizon's network not being able to currently handle simul-voice and data are also irrelevant. No simul-voice/data hasn't stopped Android one bit.
You know what the overwhelming reason why the Verizon iPhone rumors are most likely true is? Steve Jobs wants to crush Google. Android's phenomenal success is owed in part to the AT&T Apple exclusivity agreement. Jobs' is on record saying the animosity with Google stems from "they chose to compete with us" which refers directly to Android. Android's success will take a big hit if there's a Verizon iPhone and even more so if there's one on Sprint and T-Mobile as well. Remember, Jobs has been in this EXACT SAME POSITION once before, 20 years ago. Only it was Bill Gates pulling the wool over his eyes saying they weren't going to compete and they could co-exist etc blah blah instead of Eric Schmidt. Jobs is smarter this time around though, and while he's pissed off he's not taking it personally like he did last time.
If the rumors are true, Renewing the AT&T exclusivity last year was a blunder by Jobs. Further exacerbated by keeping iPad on AT&T. It gave Android a big hole the size of the Titanic for them to exploit and fill which they have. Apple has a chance to course correct if they choose. If the rumors are false or the CDMA iPhones are for China and not the US then it'll be a terrible terrible blunder and settle in for the OS Wars part Deux with Google playing Microsoft. If the rumors are true then hopefully, for Apple's sake, it'll be like the iPod. A little late to the game but not too late and they can go on to success.
Bottomline though, I'll believe it when I see it. (And if I don't see, time to start shorting Apple cause it'll never make 400 like some analyst predict)
I'm not sure where everyone got the 570 million CDMA subscribers in China from.
Who said China had 570,000,000 CDMA subscriber?
1) I?ll laugh if this is a CDMA iPhone for Sprint, not Verizon.
2) I?ll laugh even harder if it?s a GSM/TD-SCDMA iPhone for China Mobile?s 570 million subscribers, not a CDMA/CDMA2000 iPhone for the US.
Someone is a Big Bang Theory fan.
Since the China market is much larger, I would anticipate these being created for that before Verizon/Sprint here in the US. Just for contrast for those who had forgotten the comparative sizes: Verizon (after recent Alltel acquisition) 92 million subscribers vs. 570 million China CDMA subscribers. That translates to just 16% of the Chinese market potential for Apple to seek as iPhone owners. Just in case there were commenters here that thought the global market didn't matter compared to the US market.
It?s possible, and China Mobile certainly looks more willing to play ball with Apple than Verizon, but we need to consider the number of potential customers within each market as they surely differ. With 6.2x the subscriber size (which grows by 5 million per month) doesn?t that mean, with all other things being equal, that China Mobile only needs 1/6th the number of iPhone subscribers as Verizon in order to sell more units?
Who said China had 570,000,000 CDMA subscriber?
I think people misunderstood the 570 million number you posted...
I think people misunderstood the 570 million number you posted...
Ah, I didn't see his post. Oddly, it's not uncommon for people to think China Mobile is CDMA when it's GSM for '2G' and their homegrown TD-SCDMA for '3G'.
Not going to happen. There are no LTEA chips for any cell phone, and LTE chips for handsets still aren?t going to show up until next year.
Don't tell that to the Samsung Craft handset.
IE Release GSM iPhone in the summer with iOS #, and then in the winter release a slightly upgraded (a bit faster processor maybe, or Ram) with iOS#.5 that introdues a few more improvements to the OS. You get a year round buzz like Android.
Don't tell that to the Samsung Craft handset.
That?s LTE, not LTE Advanced. I was using an abbreviated initialism by writing LTEA. 2011 should have a lot of handsets with LTE, but I don?t think Apple will be there until 2012, at the earliest.
If it's really iPhone 4 CDMA and not just iPhone CDMA or iPhone 4 M (multicarrier) I would put it in January timeframe. I think that it would be a great way to keep iPhone exciting and would create a 6 month developer cycle, without any major hardware refreshes.
IE Release GSM iPhone in the summer with iOS #, and then in the winter release a slightly upgraded (a bit faster processor maybe, or Ram) with iOS#.5 that introdues a few more improvements to the OS. You get a year round buzz like Android.
That sounds reasonable to me. Do a mid-cycle release for this new HW.
That’s LTE, not LTE Advanced
And I responded to your "and LTE chips for handsets still aren’t going to show up until next year."
2011 should have a lot of handsets with LTE, but I don’t think Apple will be there until 2012, at the earliest.
Why?
http://forums.appleinsider.com/showthread.php?t=112237
And I responded to your "and LTE chips for handsets still aren’t going to show up until next year."
Ah, I was focusing on Verizon but I didn’t qualify my statement with that. It is almost the end of September, but if an LTE phone shows up on Verizon at December 31st i guess that also means I’m technically wrong.
I’m sure there will be more LTE handsets arriving this holiday season around the world, but they are just the “me first” devices because they think the milestone will award them some extra sales, despite how poor the device is. Come on, that’s a MVNO on MetroPCS! It’s akin to someone posting first in a forum for no other reason than to be first but having no substance, but you are technically right.
You could have also pointed out that chip vendors have been designing and building LTE chips for years now. I never said the “LTE chips for handsets” had to be devices ready for sale and being a post on Engadget is still “show[ing] up”.
Moving on, I don’t foresee any decent run LTE-based devices until 2011, after Verizon and other network.
Why?
Why don’t I think Apple will lease an LTE iPhone until 2012 at the earliest?
Why don?t I think Apple will lease an LTE iPhone until 2012 at the earliest?
I totally agree. AT&T and Verizon will just be in the beginning phases of implementing their LTE networks in 2011, so an Apple LTE phone before 2012 wouldn't be a smart move. Apple has never been concerned about being first, Apple has always been concerned about doing it right.
I totally agree. AT&T and Verizon will just be in the beginning phases of implementing their LTE networks in 2011, so an Apple LTE phone before 2012 wouldn't be a smart move. Apple has never been concerned about being first, Apple has always been concerned about doing it right.
I really can?t wait until these phones start getting tested and compared. I can?t see LTE being much better than WiMAX in power usage and mature HS*PA networks are likely to see dominate in up and down speeds Verizon will have next year.
I really can’t wait until these phones start getting tested and compared. I can’t see LTE being much better than WiMAX in power usage and mature HS*PA networks are likely to see dominate in up and down speeds Verizon will have next year.
The only real advantage that LTE will eventually have is that it is the new worldwide standard. I am not sure how compatible WIMAX will be with the standard. Regardless of that, for the next 2 years WIMAX might be the best choice in the USA as it has a head start.
The only real advantage that LTE will eventually have is that it is the new worldwide standard. I am not sure how compatible WIMAX will be with the standard. Regardless of that, for the next 2 years WIMAX might be the best choice in the USA as it has a head start.
HSPA is the best choice in the US for speed and coverage, and it?s a worldwide standard. I don?t see WiMAX going too much farther. Sprint will milk it but they?ll have to to migrate to LTE[A] if they want to move on. EVen Clearwire is said to be testing LTE right now.