Anytime I see stories like this, or of Apple's latest patent applications, I get all speculative about what types of craziness is percolating in their skunkworks. I like to think that they've got stuff going on in there that would put Area 51 to shame.
This has to be the most bullish forecast for AAPL ever. Everything has to go absolutely right for the company over the next year for them perform this well. Not only do they need to grow EPS by at least 50%, they also need to demonstrate the prospects of being able to continue that rate of growth beyond 2011. Possible, maybe... but this does not seem to be a typically cautious analyst's report.
apple is now in un charted waters .
no company has ever been this hot.
and apple is still cheap if you minus the cash from its stock price .
This is not uncharted territory. This is the status quo for AAPL since the recovery began from the 2001 tech bubble burst.
In 2003 AAPL was at approximately $10/share,
In 2004 $20,
in 2005 $40
in 2006 $80
in 2007 $180
in 2008 $100*
in 2009 $200
in 2010 $280
* recession effect, and market collapse.
Even including the market collapse of 2008, working backwards from 2010, this works out to an average 74% gain in stack value per year since 2003.
Regressing this trend forward onto the current stock price predicts an AAPL valuation in excess of $450 per share. This ignores the fact that the market overall is in an upward mode as we emerge from a recession, and that Apple has strong potential growth in virtually every channel. I think $430 per share is conservative.
I have been long on AAPL for more than a decade, and am happy with the results so far.
and apple is still cheap if you minus the cash from its stock price .
It would be nice if P/E was calculated minus cash and plus debt, but it isn't. The reality is that once a company is longterm debt free, the banked cash doesn't mean that much to investors. If the company is a potential takeover target it might count for something, but I don't think Apple is one of those.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pondosinatra
So does this mean that with my one share of Apple that I bought years ago for $20 that I'll be able to retire in 15 years?
I suppose that depends on your retirement objectives.
We needs to post news like this when the stock is actually on the rise instead of on a day when its down. Thats always makes me a laugh.
mmmm ... not sure I totally agree. The 'down' may be a good time to see this for new investors and grab some AAPL knowing the future is rosy and the dips are either profit taking or market dips, rarely due to Apple per se. Never the less I know what you mean, the Apple success story seems to attract strange coverage at times.
Just to prove my belief in AAPL I grabbed an additional 100 shares at a fraction over 300 last week when the whole market dipped.
This is not uncharted territory. This is the status quo for AAPL since the recovery began from the 2001 tech bubble burst.
In 2003 AAPL was at approximately $10/share,
In 2004 $20,
in 2005 $40
in 2006 $80
in 2007 $180
in 2008 $100*
in 2009 $200
in 2010 $280
* recession effect, and market collapse.
Even including the market collapse of 2008, working backwards from 2010, this works out to an average 74% gain in stack value per year since 2003.
Regressing this trend forward onto the current stock price predicts an AAPL valuation in excess of $450 per share. This ignores the fact that the market overall is in an upward mode as we emerge from a recession, and that Apple has strong potential growth in virtually every channel. I think $430 per share is conservative.
I have been long on AAPL for more than a decade, and am happy with the results so far.
That is a nice clear view you made thanks. As you say unlike so many companies at their apparent zenith, Apple hasn't scratched the surface of its potential markets (excepting iPod perhaps) yet.
We needs to post news like this when the stock is actually on the rise instead of on a day when its down. Thats always makes me a laugh.
Please understand a stock will never go up on a daily basis, you saying there shouldn't be posts about Apple when it goes down one day is absurd, people also buy more AAPL when it goes down not to mention short sellers.
Comments
for $300. I can't even think about $430. Would be really happy at $325.
At $400 I can retire.
This has to be the most bullish forecast for AAPL ever. Everything has to go absolutely right for the company over the next year for them perform this well. Not only do they need to grow EPS by at least 50%, they also need to demonstrate the prospects of being able to continue that rate of growth beyond 2011. Possible, maybe... but this does not seem to be a typically cautious analyst's report.
apple is now in un charted waters .
no company has ever been this hot.
and apple is still cheap if you minus the cash from its stock price .
having 5 hot products at once .
wow
9
In 2003 AAPL was at approximately $10/share,
In 2004 $20,
in 2005 $40
in 2006 $80
in 2007 $180
in 2008 $100*
in 2009 $200
in 2010 $280
* recession effect, and market collapse.
Even including the market collapse of 2008, working backwards from 2010, this works out to an average 74% gain in stack value per year since 2003.
Regressing this trend forward onto the current stock price predicts an AAPL valuation in excess of $450 per share. This ignores the fact that the market overall is in an upward mode as we emerge from a recession, and that Apple has strong potential growth in virtually every channel. I think $430 per share is conservative.
I have been long on AAPL for more than a decade, and am happy with the results so far.
apple is now in un charted waters .
no company has ever been this hot.
and apple is still cheap if you minus the cash from its stock price .
It would be nice if P/E was calculated minus cash and plus debt, but it isn't. The reality is that once a company is longterm debt free, the banked cash doesn't mean that much to investors. If the company is a potential takeover target it might count for something, but I don't think Apple is one of those.
So does this mean that with my one share of Apple that I bought years ago for $20 that I'll be able to retire in 15 years?
I suppose that depends on your retirement objectives.
We needs to post news like this when the stock is actually on the rise instead of on a day when its down. Thats always makes me a laugh.
mmmm ... not sure I totally agree. The 'down' may be a good time to see this for new investors and grab some AAPL knowing the future is rosy and the dips are either profit taking or market dips, rarely due to Apple per se. Never the less I know what you mean, the Apple success story seems to attract strange coverage at times.
Just to prove my belief in AAPL I grabbed an additional 100 shares at a fraction over 300 last week when the whole market dipped.
So does this mean that with my one share of Apple that I bought years ago for $20 that I'll be able to retire in 15 years?
I bet you wish you'd bought a hell of a lot more
This is not uncharted territory. This is the status quo for AAPL since the recovery began from the 2001 tech bubble burst.
In 2003 AAPL was at approximately $10/share,
In 2004 $20,
in 2005 $40
in 2006 $80
in 2007 $180
in 2008 $100*
in 2009 $200
in 2010 $280
* recession effect, and market collapse.
Even including the market collapse of 2008, working backwards from 2010, this works out to an average 74% gain in stack value per year since 2003.
Regressing this trend forward onto the current stock price predicts an AAPL valuation in excess of $450 per share. This ignores the fact that the market overall is in an upward mode as we emerge from a recession, and that Apple has strong potential growth in virtually every channel. I think $430 per share is conservative.
I have been long on AAPL for more than a decade, and am happy with the results so far.
That is a nice clear view you made thanks. As you say unlike so many companies at their apparent zenith, Apple hasn't scratched the surface of its potential markets (excepting iPod perhaps) yet.
We needs to post news like this when the stock is actually on the rise instead of on a day when its down. Thats always makes me a laugh.
Please understand a stock will never go up on a daily basis, you saying there shouldn't be posts about Apple when it goes down one day is absurd, people also buy more AAPL when it goes down not to mention short sellers.