Under Steve, Apple has shown great restraint in diluting their brand and releasing too many products. Before Steve, Apple had way too many models and a muddied brand identity. IMHO, this restraint is counter to the MBA mentality - and I think counter to MS's tactics. I firmly believe Apple has dozens of products lurking in their labs that other companies would have turned into products years ago. But Apple's leadership has chosen to release limited, well-defined products with extreme polish and attention to detail. And even with that attention to detail they stumble - see "antenna-gate".
With the iOS based aTV, and the GoogleTV and other such boxes becoming more mainstream, I think we'll see aTV change from being a hobby to a real profit center for Apple.
Long on AAPL.
- Jasen.
Most of the rumors lean towards TV as Apple's "next big thing," and I tend to believe it, but I've heard some good arguments against it being a market Apple can conquer using their current strategies. The interests are very deeply entrenched, and they will also be facing at least one capable opponent in Google. Not saying it's impossible, if only because Apple has done the impossible a few times already -- only that replicating that feat becomes successively more difficult with each instance.
Also long AAPL (since 1997) but starting to wonder if I should begin hitting the offramp.
Several years ago my well-intentioned young stock broker called me to say my AAPL holdings made my portfolio very unbalanced. I thanked him for his opinion.
As several sharp investment analysts have shown, it doesn't take much of a miss in timing to have been better off buying and holding. The other case they make is that even the best in the business have a hard time guessing tops and bottoms, and they rarely beat market averages. The case for not "playing the market" even with the best professional guidance is a powerful one, backed up with statistical analysis.
Too true. I always find it interesting, in a ridiculous sort of way, when people try to time the market. Especially when the largest gains or losses typically occur in just a handful of days each calendar year.
So if you know for a fact that such and such stock, bond or mutual fund is going to soar or tank in the context of just a few calendar days each year, then I would suggest you are a close personal friend of one Gordon Gecko.
The aTV could well be a game changer. It gets little fan fare because it is nowhere near what Apple want, or what people need. But the future potential is there.
It is iOS. It will be able to run apps in the future.
( I think that Apple are working on - or should be working on - device resolution independent API).
As you suggest, guessing right is a crapshoot. Statistically I am wrong slightly more often than I am right. Now, if I lost as much on losing trades as I gained on winners, that would be a recipe for disaster. The key is money/risk management. I try to bail fairly quickly when the trade goes against me, and hold on as long as I can when it is in my favor. That is counter to what most try to do. It is a natural tendency to want to hold on when things are not in your favor, and bail when you have made a profit. These are tendencies the trader has to fight against. There are days when I will make, say, 4 losers, and 1 profitable trade and yet end the day with a profit.
Intraday, I buy bounces off support and sell when it gets to resistance or vice versa for a short. If I can get, say, 8 or 9 points on a 12 point move on the S&P futures, I am quite happy. Missing the tops and bottoms is what happens when you wait for confirmation for the candle to close on the timeframe that one is working on, but it does give you better odds on making a profitable trade.
This is definitely not for everyone, and it has taken me a while to get comfortable doing it. This is my day job.
That is not to say that I am strictly short term in all my trading activities. I do have long term retirement accounts which are managed much more conservatively, and with more of an emphasis on dividend paying stocks held long term.
As to whether or not I would be better off with a mix of index funds, during the recent financial crisis where many saw huge losses in their investments, I still was able to maintain double digit (albeit low double digit) realized gains overall.
This is great stuff, and it's unfortunate that some don't respect the fact that you're actually successful enough at what you're doing to make a living at it. From what I've seen in the trading world (yes folks, this is trading, not investment, so what!), a huge part of that is risk management. Not getting in too deep on any one trade and balancing wins/losses in a way that makes sense for your strategies.
Couple questions for you: how long have you been doing this? or more accurately, how long have you been doing this successfully? (because there's usually a learning curve where we're feeling out the systems and strategies)
And: have you had success in currency trading, or do you stick with major indices?
I'm happy to take some of this offline/PM since it may be getting off topic for many.
Comments
Under Steve, Apple has shown great restraint in diluting their brand and releasing too many products. Before Steve, Apple had way too many models and a muddied brand identity. IMHO, this restraint is counter to the MBA mentality - and I think counter to MS's tactics. I firmly believe Apple has dozens of products lurking in their labs that other companies would have turned into products years ago. But Apple's leadership has chosen to release limited, well-defined products with extreme polish and attention to detail. And even with that attention to detail they stumble - see "antenna-gate".
With the iOS based aTV, and the GoogleTV and other such boxes becoming more mainstream, I think we'll see aTV change from being a hobby to a real profit center for Apple.
Long on AAPL.
- Jasen.
Most of the rumors lean towards TV as Apple's "next big thing," and I tend to believe it, but I've heard some good arguments against it being a market Apple can conquer using their current strategies. The interests are very deeply entrenched, and they will also be facing at least one capable opponent in Google. Not saying it's impossible, if only because Apple has done the impossible a few times already -- only that replicating that feat becomes successively more difficult with each instance.
Also long AAPL (since 1997) but starting to wonder if I should begin hitting the offramp.
Several years ago my well-intentioned young stock broker called me to say my AAPL holdings made my portfolio very unbalanced. I thanked him for his opinion.
My portfolio is much more unbalanced today.
Awesome!
As several sharp investment analysts have shown, it doesn't take much of a miss in timing to have been better off buying and holding. The other case they make is that even the best in the business have a hard time guessing tops and bottoms, and they rarely beat market averages. The case for not "playing the market" even with the best professional guidance is a powerful one, backed up with statistical analysis.
Too true. I always find it interesting, in a ridiculous sort of way, when people try to time the market. Especially when the largest gains or losses typically occur in just a handful of days each calendar year.
So if you know for a fact that such and such stock, bond or mutual fund is going to soar or tank in the context of just a few calendar days each year, then I would suggest you are a close personal friend of one Gordon Gecko.
It is iOS. It will be able to run apps in the future.
( I think that Apple are working on - or should be working on - device resolution independent API).
As you suggest, guessing right is a crapshoot. Statistically I am wrong slightly more often than I am right. Now, if I lost as much on losing trades as I gained on winners, that would be a recipe for disaster. The key is money/risk management. I try to bail fairly quickly when the trade goes against me, and hold on as long as I can when it is in my favor. That is counter to what most try to do. It is a natural tendency to want to hold on when things are not in your favor, and bail when you have made a profit. These are tendencies the trader has to fight against. There are days when I will make, say, 4 losers, and 1 profitable trade and yet end the day with a profit.
Intraday, I buy bounces off support and sell when it gets to resistance or vice versa for a short. If I can get, say, 8 or 9 points on a 12 point move on the S&P futures, I am quite happy. Missing the tops and bottoms is what happens when you wait for confirmation for the candle to close on the timeframe that one is working on, but it does give you better odds on making a profitable trade.
This is definitely not for everyone, and it has taken me a while to get comfortable doing it. This is my day job.
That is not to say that I am strictly short term in all my trading activities. I do have long term retirement accounts which are managed much more conservatively, and with more of an emphasis on dividend paying stocks held long term.
As to whether or not I would be better off with a mix of index funds, during the recent financial crisis where many saw huge losses in their investments, I still was able to maintain double digit (albeit low double digit) realized gains overall.
This is great stuff, and it's unfortunate that some don't respect the fact that you're actually successful enough at what you're doing to make a living at it. From what I've seen in the trading world (yes folks, this is trading, not investment, so what!), a huge part of that is risk management. Not getting in too deep on any one trade and balancing wins/losses in a way that makes sense for your strategies.
Couple questions for you: how long have you been doing this? or more accurately, how long have you been doing this successfully? (because there's usually a learning curve where we're feeling out the systems and strategies)
And: have you had success in currency trading, or do you stick with major indices?
I'm happy to take some of this offline/PM since it may be getting off topic for many.
Awesome!
Awesome for what? Steve Jobs lost $10 billion because he didn't believe Apple shares would go up either.