"Doubtful. What everyone should know (and what Andy most certainly does know) is that the affiliated analysts are universally conservative, and not just on their coverage AAPL, but on every stock they cover. How often does any company fail to at least meet the street's consensus earnings? Rarely, and that's by design. I appreciate Andy's work but I thought it was churlish of him to label affiliated analysts as professionals in quotes, as if to imply that they are actually unprofessional, when what it really comes down to is that they're responsible to clients and Andy is not." From Dr. Millmoss
You're right on point. They do, by nature, have to be conservative. Yet, that being said, getting beat by 50% isn't conservative. Its outright nonsense. Many analysts do a great job. Others not so great. Like being conservative means managing client expectations while being somewhat realistic. Tampering down estimates by 10 or so percent is good enough. They don't need to get beat by 50% in some area. Otherwise, what's the point of the analysis? Why should I pay for a report from morgan stanley when I can get a free report at AI or at Fortune?
I hope the post-conference call reviews pay sufficient tribute to Apple's posted numbers today -- according to this preview story's data, even the more optimistic consensus among the unaffiliated bloggers seems to have been a little timid -- to the effect of ONE BILLION THREE HUNDRED NINETY MILLION DOLLARS!
You're right on point. They do, by nature, have to be conservative. Yet, that being said, getting beat by 50% isn't conservative. Its outright nonsense. Many analysts do a great job. Others not so great. Like being conservative means managing client expectations while being somewhat realistic. Tampering down estimates by 10 or so percent is good enough. They don't need to get beat by 50% in some area. Otherwise, what's the point of the analysis? Why should I pay for a report from morgan stanley when I can get a free report at AI or at Fortune?
Since when 50%? Earnings were 14% above the street in this report, which is in the neighborhood of what I've been seeing from consensus numbers for years now. The market has come to expect this degree of undershooting.
You won't get any argument from me about the value of these analyst reports. I don't pay for any of them, and I would prefer to read your analysis than many of the others. Still we have to understand that the consensus numbers are meaningful to the markets. If they weren't, we wouldn't be seeing the less than gleeful reactions to the current report, despite the conservative estimates.
Thanks for your report, keep up the good work! Only thing I'm interested in that I haven't gleamed from your articles is an approximate market cap - keeping me from investing
Comments
You're right on point. They do, by nature, have to be conservative. Yet, that being said, getting beat by 50% isn't conservative. Its outright nonsense. Many analysts do a great job. Others not so great. Like being conservative means managing client expectations while being somewhat realistic. Tampering down estimates by 10 or so percent is good enough. They don't need to get beat by 50% in some area. Otherwise, what's the point of the analysis? Why should I pay for a report from morgan stanley when I can get a free report at AI or at Fortune?
You're right on point. They do, by nature, have to be conservative. Yet, that being said, getting beat by 50% isn't conservative. Its outright nonsense. Many analysts do a great job. Others not so great. Like being conservative means managing client expectations while being somewhat realistic. Tampering down estimates by 10 or so percent is good enough. They don't need to get beat by 50% in some area. Otherwise, what's the point of the analysis? Why should I pay for a report from morgan stanley when I can get a free report at AI or at Fortune?
Since when 50%? Earnings were 14% above the street in this report, which is in the neighborhood of what I've been seeing from consensus numbers for years now. The market has come to expect this degree of undershooting.
You won't get any argument from me about the value of these analyst reports. I don't pay for any of them, and I would prefer to read your analysis than many of the others. Still we have to understand that the consensus numbers are meaningful to the markets. If they weren't, we wouldn't be seeing the less than gleeful reactions to the current report, despite the conservative estimates.
but we all know the growth can't go on forever!