AT&T activates record 5.2 million iPhones, promotes non-Apple devices

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Comments

  • Reply 61 of 73
    adonissmuadonissmu Posts: 1,772member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    But that doesn't contribute to the bottomline at all. They are just buying market share with huge handset subsidies.



    AT&T's operating income didn't really change year to year in Q3, it went up by 1 cent per share. Massive iphone 4 sales, not really doing much to the bottomline.



    The problem is the Iphone can't offset the losses they've experienced in other areas of their business. The losses are too great in those areas even with record subscriptions and iphone sales. I mean think about it. So what Iphone is selling like hot cakes when the rest of your business is loosing money left and right.
  • Reply 62 of 73
    newbeenewbee Posts: 2,055member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    I don't spin numbers at all.



    The original post I replied to was where you said Verizon had 99.9 million customers. Verizon themselves say their TOTAL customer count is 92.1 million ... somebody is spinning something ... and it ain't wool.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    Otherwise, the only reason to get into this discussion would be taking potshots at me.



    About time you figured it out... btw, the "potshots" wouldn't be necessary ... if you weren't playing "fast and loose" with your statements.
  • Reply 63 of 73
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    AT&T now has 92.8 million subs, which is more than Verizon had on it’s last results for the June quarter with 92.1 million. It’s possible that AT&T might be top dog tomorrow, just squeaking by Verizon in net adds.





    Well Solip, the numbers came in, and while Verizon did worse than expected, they still got 1 million net adds, and held on to Number One.



    Quoted from the Wall Street Journal:



    Quote:

    Verizon's customer base now stands at 93.2 million, compared with 87 million a year earlier, though the company is expected to add Apple Inc.'s iPhone to its lineup early next year.





    Oh, and Samab, if you have a problem with the above figures, take it up with the WSJ, not us, because that's how they reported 'em.



    ...
  • Reply 64 of 73
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    Well Solip, the numbers came in, and while Verizon did worse than expected, they still got 1 million net adds, and held on to Number One.



    Thanks for the update. IF (and that?s a big if) the iPhone does not go to Verizon next year I can see them slowing even more. Note, by ?not going to Verizon? I don?t mean staying only with AT&T. I think if Apple expands to T-Mobile and/or Sprint because they couldn?t ink a deal with Verizon, it would hurt them quite a bit as people would then have options outside of AT&T and be pretty assured that the iPhone wasn?t coming to Verizon anytime soon.
  • Reply 65 of 73
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Thanks for the update. IF (and that’s a big if) the iPhone does not go to Verizon next year I can see them slowing even more. Note, by “not going to Verizon” I don’t mean staying only with AT&T. I think if Apple expands to T-Mobile and/or Sprint because they couldn’t ink a deal with Verizon, it would hurt them quite a bit as people would then have options outside of AT&T and be pretty assured that the iPhone wasn’t coming to Verizon anytime soon.





    Well, I know Sprint's pretty desperate, that's for sure.



    But I think they're still putzing around with Wi-Max as their 4G solution, and haven't officially committed to LTE yet. A Sprint iPhone would seem to be CDMA-only. But who knows precisely what wackiness will ensue?



    That's half the fun of the wireless market.



    ...
  • Reply 66 of 73
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    Well, I know Sprint's pretty desperate, that's for sure.



    But I think they're still putzing around with Wi-Max as their 4G solution, and haven't officially committed to LTE yet. A Sprint iPhone would seem to be CDMA-only. But who knows precisely what wackiness will ensue?



    That's half the fun of the wireless market.



    ...



    I expect a CDMA/EV-DO iPhone to be around first. LTE may exist now, but it?s far from standard and likely far from having HW that will work for Apple. I don?t expect an LTE iPhone until at least 2012.



    We can use the original iPhone as an example. ?3G? was in every major city and saturated most larger areas of the US in 2007. Europe and elsewhere it was saturated with ?3G?, yet the original was EDGE. Apple didn?t feel they had to push the envelope in that manner then and I doubt they?d think so today when they are on top.
  • Reply 67 of 73
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    Oh, and Samab, if you have a problem with the above figures, take it up with the WSJ, not us, because that's how they reported 'em.



    I don't have a problem at all.



    What I have is a problem with you people making apples to oranges comparisons. Somehow you are bashing Verizon for being conservative in providing their numbers when they announced that they have 93 millions subscribers and 8 million "other connections". If you want a full breakdown of all the numbers from Q2, then read this:



    http://www.infosyncworld.com/news/n/11152.html
  • Reply 68 of 73
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
  • Reply 69 of 73
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    A lot of those subscribers are tracfone subscribers that has a $15 ARPU, Kindle subscribers that has a $2 ARPU.



    If you look at just postpaid subscribers --- AT&T got 1.25 million postpaid subscribers in Q2+Q3 and Verizon got 1.249 milliion postpaid subscribers in Q2+Q3. That's the power of the iphone 4 --- a 1000 postpaid subscribers.
  • Reply 70 of 73
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    I don't have a problem at all.



    What I have is a problem with you people making apples to oranges comparisons. Somehow you are bashing Verizon for being conservative in providing their numbers when they announced that they have 93 millions subscribers and 8 million "other connections".





    What do you mean "you people"? I'm not "bashing" VZW at all... in fact, I use Verizon every day, and much prefer it to AT&T where I live. Get a grip.



    While I understand the desire to cheerlead for Big Red on a forum that's so vehemently pro-AT&T (and for no other reason than they did the iPhone deal while VZ passed), you need to keep matters in perspective.



    Otherwise, ppl are just going to write you off as a VZW mouthpiece, and ignore what you have to say.



    ...
  • Reply 71 of 73
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I expect a CDMA/EV-DO iPhone to be around first. LTE may exist now, but it’s far from standard and likely far from having HW that will work for Apple. I don’t expect an LTE iPhone until at least 2012.



    We can use the original iPhone as an example. ‘3G’ was in every major city and saturated most larger areas of the US in 2007. Europe and elsewhere it was saturated with ‘3G’, yet the original was EDGE. Apple didn’t feel they had to push the envelope in that manner then and I doubt they’d think so today when they are on top.





    Well, I'm not sure the parallels are completely apt. Jobs says the original iPhone was 2.5G due to battery life issues, not because "they didn't feel they had to push the envelope."



    Well, that and Jobs wanted a nice sleek uber-thin/'sexay' iPhone, i.e. no 'beeg' battery in it.



    I've heard that LTE is a bit of a hog too, though I don't know if the LTE chipsets are as power-hungry proportionally now as 3G chipsets were back in '07.



    But to me, the argument that most makes sense for Apple releasing a CDMA-only phone first is the 'upgrade path' one... i.e., release a CDMA-only iPhone first. Everyone buys it. THEN, about a year later, release the LTE/CDMA version. Everyone ditches their CDMA-only iPhones, and buys the new model TOO. MASSIVE 'cha-ching!' factor.



    It's a tad bit 'eval', but it definitely worked for the 2.5G to 3G iPhone transition on AT&T, don't see why it wouldn't work here as well.



    The opposing argument, of course, is that Verizon's LTE network will be up and running by the end of December, and 110 million people will be in the service area from Day One. It would be quite a coup if Verizon could put that LTE network to use RIGHT AWAY serving a ton of freshly-minted Verizon iPhone customers, even if the LTE network was data-only at first (I've heard things about the LTE voice standards not being 'locked down' yet; have no idea how true that is/isn't).



    But, if that did happen, I'd expect that Apple would want VZW to pay through the nose for such a privilege/coup.



    ...
  • Reply 72 of 73
    tbagginstbaggins Posts: 2,306member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab View Post


    A lot of those subscribers are tracfone subscribers that has a $15 ARPU, Kindle subscribers that has a $2 ARPU.





    True. AT&T is more heavily dependent on lower-ARPU prepaid customers than Verizon is.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by samab


    If you look at just postpaid subscribers --- AT&T got 1.25 million postpaid subscribers in Q2+Q3 and Verizon got 1.249 milliion postpaid subscribers in Q2+Q3. That's the power of the iphone 4 --- a 1000 postpaid subscribers.





    Samab, you know better than that. What's the 1st paragraph of the article we're commenting on again?:



    Quote:

    AT&T on Thursday reported a record third quarter, posting revenue of $31.58 billion, thanks in large part to its best-ever total of 5.2 million iPhone activations. But the company also made it a point to specifically promote other, non-Apple handsets in its lineup as rumors of a Verizon iPhone swirl.





    You know perfectly well that the iPhone has been HUGE for AT&T. It's what's been keeping them in the ballgame against VZW.



    What's slightly amazing is how poorly they're doing ASIDE from the iPhone. It seems evident that AT&T's subscriber growth would all but COLLAPSE once their iPhone exclusivity period ends. This is even taking into account that three-quarters of those 5.2 million new iPhone activations this quarter came from ppl who were already on AT&T, and were upgrading from a previous-version iPhone, or from another AT&T phone (AT&T did say that about 25 percent of iPhone activations this quarter were for new subscribers).



    Worse, if Verizon gets the iPhone (rather than say, just Sprint and/or TMobile), there would not only be a net add collapse or semi-collapse for AT&T, but a subscriber SWING to VZW, as many ppl who've put up with AT&T's subpar network in various parts of the country switched to VZW, either by paying the ETF (likely only if they have an individual plan/one line, not a family plan/mulitple lines, as the ETF then gets expensive), or, they'll wait for their AT&T contract to expire, THEN switch.



    You could even see a quarter or two where AT&T's subscriber base went sideways, or even backwards/down, following release of a VZW iPhone.



    AT&T has made some public pronouncements recently putting a brave face on losing exclusivity ("it won't hurt our growth much!"), but deep down, they are likely crapping their pants regarding the prospect, and are very much hoping that if they lose exclusivity, at least a deal does not get done with Verizon.



    Because, after all, Sprint is on its back, and T-Mobile is quite small compared to the other major national providers.



    I had some AT&T stock I bought in May, and I sold it recently for a nice profit. I'm quite glad I sold when I did.



    ...
  • Reply 73 of 73
    samabsamab Posts: 1,953member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


    You know perfectly well that the iPhone has been HUGE for AT&T. It's what's been keeping them in the ballgame against VZW.



    What is amazing is how poorly they're doing ASIDE from the iPhone. It seems evident that AT&T's subscriber growth would pretty much COLLAPSE once their iPhone exclusivity period ends.



    Nobody ever put a gun on AT&T's head and forced them to grab market share by lowering profit margins (both at the low end of Tracfone and high end with iphone handset subsidies).



    When Cingular bought AT&T Wireless to become the largest wireless carrier in the US, VZW didn't panic and didn't try to buy market share. Verizon NEVER looked at the prepaid market or the MVNO market. Only geeks cared to handicap the horse race on when Verizon would eclipse AT&T after the Cingular/AT&T merger.



    If the new AT&T Wireless eclipses VZW in the horse race because of Tracfone + iPhone --- Verizon doesn't really care about that either. VZW's profit margin didn't go down this quarter.
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