Tablets like Apple's iPad expected to 'displace' 10% of PCs in 2014

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Tablets and smartphones will significantly affect PC sales in the years to come, with touchscreen devices like Apple's iPad representing 10 percent of PC sales by 2014, according to a new forecast.



Gartner on Monday released its latest forecast update for PC sales. The firm expects a total of 352.4 million computers to be shipped by the end of 2010, which would be a 14.3 percent increase from last year, but is also less than Gartner's previous forecast in September of 17.9 percent growth.



Accordingly, the firm also reduced its projections for PC shipments in 2011. Gartner now believes that worldwide PC shipments will reach 409 million units next year, a 15.9 percent increase from 2010. That's less than its earlier estimate of 18.1 percent growth.



Gartner believes devices like Apple's iPad are "disruptive" to sales of traditional PCs. Released in April, the iPad is already outselling the Mac.



"These results reflect marked reductions in expected near-term unit growth based on expectations of weaker consumer demand, due in no small part to growing user interest in media tablets such as the iPad," said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner. "Over the longer term, media tablets are expected to displace around 10 percent of PC units by 2014."



Gartner's analysts believe that more portable devices will eat away at sales of more traditional desktop and laptop computers in the future.



"PCs are still seen as necessities, but the PC industry's inability to significantly innovate and its overreliance on a business model predicated on driving volume through price declines are finally impacting the industry's ability to induce new replacement cycles," said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner.



"As the PC market slows, vendors that differentiate themselves through services and technology innovation rather than unit volume and price will dictate the future. Even then, leading vendors will be challenged to keep PCs from losing the device 'limelight' to more innovative products that offer better dedicated compute capabilities."



The analysis is similar to comments made earlier this year by Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs, who said he believes that devices like the iPad are representative of a forthcoming post-PC era. He compared the growth of tablets to the migration of the U.S. automobile industry from trucks to cars.



Jobs said that trucks were originally a necessity because they were driven by farmers. But as cities grew and features like power steering and automatic transition were added to cars, they became the more popular option.



"PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said noting they will still be around, but they will represent a smaller number of sales.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 50
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,784member
    This is why Apple is the most sued company in the world. The rest of the industry is watching Apple pull too far ahead for their liking in this new mobile market.
  • Reply 2 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Tablets and smartphones will significantly affect PC sales in the years to come, with touchscreen devices like Apple's iPad representing 10 percent of PC sales by 2014, according to a new forecast.








    Holy Moley! If this is true, Apple will lose about one and one-half MILLION Mac sales to the lower-priced iPad. So what is the average selling price of a Mac? $1800 or so?



    If so, that is nearly THREE BILLION DOLLARS in Mac revenue.



    Is the iPad a Golem?
  • Reply 3 of 50
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 蘋果蘋果蘋果 View Post


    ?



    So let's see how high your post count gets before you get banned again.
  • Reply 4 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 蘋果蘋果蘋果 View Post


    Holy Moley! If this is true, Apple will lose about one and one-half MILLION Mac sales to the lower-priced iPad. So what is the average selling price of a Mac? $1800 or so?



    If so, that is nearly THREE BILLION DOLLARS in Mac revenue.



    Is the iPad a Golem?



    Except that regular PC sales are going to be effected, not Macs... as we have seen in the last few years.

    So Apple gets another 9% of the computer pie (90% of the expected 10% overall) and even more of the profits.

    WOW!
  • Reply 5 of 50
    chronsterchronster Posts: 1,894member
    Jobs is right. People who don't need the robust utilitarian features of a PC will lean towards buying tablets instead, just like the people who didn't need the robustness of a laptop ended up buying netbooks.



    As more alternatives become available, PC sales will be affected. Hopefully this will mean we'll see some great stuff in the PC market in order to keep up.
  • Reply 6 of 50
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    I predict that Apple will still outpace the industry and will appear unfazed by any tablet displacement. In fact, I expect their desktop sale to pick up pass due to the emergence of viable tablet, satellite computers.
  • Reply 7 of 50
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by chronster View Post


    Hopefully this will mean we'll see some great stuff in the PC market in order to keep up.





    If the Mac App Store really takes off, we might see some quality software titles for a fair price.

    It would be sweet to be able to have unlimited free upgrades for CS.
  • Reply 8 of 50
    chronsterchronster Posts: 1,894member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post


    Except that regular PC sales are going to be effected, not Macs... as we have seen in the last few years.

    So Apple gets another 9% of the computer pie (90% of the expected 10% overall) and even more of the profits.

    WOW!



    Time will tell. I don't think these cheap tablet options have been around long enough to come to a conclusion about the impact on Mac sales.
  • Reply 9 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    This is why Apple is the most sued company in the world. The rest of the industry is watching Apple pull too far ahead for their liking in this new mobile market.



    Agreed!
  • Reply 10 of 50
    chronsterchronster Posts: 1,894member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mstone View Post


    If the Mac App Store really takes off, we might see some quality software titles for a fair price.

    It would be sweet to be able to have unlimited free upgrades for CS.



    It will do well. Steam does the same thing with games, and it appears as though it's worked out great for Valve. In fact, it's been quite a while since I bought a game from someplace else.
  • Reply 11 of 50
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    2014?



    That's unpredictable. Any person who says this cannot claim to be an analyst.
  • Reply 12 of 50
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,585member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mstone View Post


    If the Mac App Store really takes off, we might see some quality software titles for a fair price.

    It would be sweet to be able to have unlimited free upgrades for CS.



    I doubt that software of the complexity of CS will be offered in the App Store. It seems as though that will be mostly for consumer grade items, utilities, and other simpler bits.
  • Reply 13 of 50
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    I doubt that software of the complexity of CS will be offered in the App Store. It seems as though that will be mostly for consumer grade items, utilities, and other simpler bits.



    I have no idea what will happen but if apps like Pixelmator, Opacity, & Coda get more recognition as a result of being on the app store it may force Adobe's hand. Right now you kind of have to be an insider to know about those products. With Apple's marketing machine behind them, a lot of small developers could do really well. I would love to see CS broken up into the individual apps again.
  • Reply 14 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 蘋果蘋果蘋果 View Post


    ... Is the iPad a Golem?



    Since this makes no sense ... I'm guessing you're knowledge of the Golem comes either from watching the Simpsons, or The Lord of the Rings.
  • Reply 15 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by chronster View Post


    Jobs is right. People who don't need the robust utilitarian features of a PC will lean towards buying tablets instead, just like the people who didn't need the robustness of a laptop ended up buying netbooks.



    As more alternatives become available, PC sales will be affected. Hopefully this will mean we'll see some great stuff in the PC market in order to keep up.





    Right! Job's said they were like "trucks." And with all the improvements Apple is making in the mobile arena, PC's look more and more like "trucks!" (Apple makes the "prettiest" truck, though!)



    I think the jury is in, most Windows Netbooks are junky.





    I prefer to be more mobile and am willing to give up some computing pwr and screen real estate you get from a desktop.



    An iPhone 4, a 2nd gen. iPad 3Gs and I would be quite happy. Who wants to sit in front of a computer all day? Ugggh!



    And when my original intel iMac finally falters, I will replace it with an 11" MBA.



    The 11" MBA will be better suited for my RV than the big desktop-(when my GF kicks me out.) Plus they will all fit in my one suitcase with rest of my "belongings!" My tech stuff, not my GF!



    Chicks, man! Whatever you do, don't look at them the wrong way! Whew!



    Best
  • Reply 16 of 50
    addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,665member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mstone View Post


    So let's see how high your post count gets before you get banned again.



    My thoughts exactly. Every time I report one of his incarnations he gets banned pretty quickly; can't tell if the mods are basing it off IP address or actual content. If it's IP a simple report should nip it in the bud, if it's content I guess we'll have to wait for him to build up his usual record of crap.
  • Reply 17 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mstone View Post


    If the Mac App Store really takes off, we might see some quality software titles for a fair price.

    It would be sweet to be able to have unlimited free upgrades for CS.



    1) Adobe will likely be the *last* company to join the app store

    2) They won't offer the CS suite but individual apps if they do join the app store

    3) No one ever said upgrades would be free for life, even in the iOS app store



    Right now there are two or three rules to being in the Mac App store that leave out almost all decent software. Particularly of note is the fact that software with serial numbers or activation schemes is disallowed, and software that uses a non-standard installer is disallowed. So unless the rules change, Adobe is already out of the game.



    I predict that by the time they realise they are in trouble and want to join the store, it will already be too late. The whole world is moving to small specialised apps. It's happening on the desktop, it's happening even faster in the new mobile platforms. The days of gigantic suites are already over whether Adobe and Microsoft realise it or not.
  • Reply 18 of 50
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    2014?



    That's unpredictable. Any person who says this cannot claim to be an analyst.



    That's probably why they used the word forecast instead of the word predict. They are similar but forecast to me indicates less certainty. Weatherpeople also forecast as opposed to predict.
  • Reply 19 of 50
    Here's an interesting quote:



    The iPad: ?The Mac of the Masses?



    http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/2...of-the-masses/
  • Reply 20 of 50
    I think the estimate of 10% is far too conservative. For one thing, iPads in 2014 will be far more powerful and mature than they are today.



    Also, there's another way of looking at this. Because iPads can be deployed more cheaply than PCs, they will be used for tasks that PCs are impractical for. (For instance, the clipboard and pad doctors and nurses traditionally carry around with them in hospitals will be entirely replaced with iPads. In fact, many clipboards will be replaced with iPads.) What that means is, the overall PC/iPad market will grow. But since that growth will be entirely due to the iPad, they will take up far more than 10% of that market IF you measure the two markets as one. The iPad IS basically a computer/PC, after all.



    Anyway, no matter how you slice it, 10% is probably way low.
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