Microsoft: Windows Phone 7 may take 2 years to catch up to Apple, Google

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  • Reply 21 of 51
    docno42docno42 Posts: 3,313member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Sofabutt View Post


    In two years, Apple will be fighting off the same reputation MS began to have a few years back, and a couple years after that, people will be abandoning Apple foe some other new innovative company or Operating System.



    Huh? based on what? Just because Apple is now a large company? That's a rather shallow and myopic vision.



    Quote:

    Point being, this whole scenario has been played out time and time again. People get unhappy with the OS they have been using and look to something more contemporary, more capable, less stodgy.



    Point being, Unix has been around for decades and here I am typing on a machine that is running it at it's core.



    Apple is nothing like Microsoft and people don't randomly change operating systems for reasons such as they are "stodgy".



    Not sure where your delusion is coming from, but if you sincerely believe this then you should probably be prepared to be disappointed in "a couple years".
  • Reply 22 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post


    If Microsoft executes Windows Phone 7 correctly, it could be a direct competitor to both Google and Apple. Same goes for HP/Palm, only hardware wise for them. I believe WP7 will be in the race with Google, Apple, and HP/Palm. Those companies will be the next big four like the big four of the carriers.



    I think if every smartphone manufacturer started today, the Microsoft phones would have a good chance of carving out a place in the marketplace even if only because of the Microsoft name and the strength of their Desktop OS and Office market share. But the problem is Microsoft and HP/Palm are not all starting off the same. The reality is they are behind and they have to play catch up. Now if this were Desktop OSes they still would be a viable threat. Because anyone could easily change OSes if they so desired. But we are dealing with smartphones with their required two or three year contracts. So even if someone wanted to switch over to a WP7 phone they would have to wait up to three years without having to pay a early termination penalty! That's why it made no sense spending all that money trying to market this phone in it's introduction. It's a waste on money. It would have been better to have spread out the money over the next few years instead. For anyone entering the market now it's going to be slow going before they see any significant gain assuming the current major players (Apple, Google) somehow lose their way over the next two or three years. Now tablets, that's another story...



    One more thing...

    With AT&T (and probably Verizon once they are on board) usually allowing people to get the latest iPhone before their current contract runs out with little to no penalty, this creates an incentive to stay with the iPhone and not jump ship.
  • Reply 23 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Wurm5150 View Post


    What Joe meant by 2 years is "never".. Unless Apple and Google decides to just sit on their asses and stop innovating and improving iOS and Android for the next two years then yes MS might catch up..



    That is actually how Microsoft functions. They chase the market leader and wait for their competitor to screw up in a features war, miss a product cycle, or fail to keep up. Ask Borland, Netscape, or Palm.
  • Reply 24 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Wurm5150 View Post


    I felt bad for Joe.. Walt really did a number on him. Mossberg sounded like a douche but grilled that dude like a steak in a tailgate party



    Dunno what's douchey about doing your job as a journalist. The guy evaded the question and Mossberg eventually got an answer out of him, albeit unwillingly.
  • Reply 25 of 51
    The two year "catch up" is in reference to profit and market share, not features.



    As a modern OS designed around how people will use their mobile devices in the coming years, instead of how people used their phones 4 years ago, WP7 is already ahead of the curve.



    I don't see that translating into the profit that Apple enjoys or the market share that Android will accumulate though. Certainly not in two years.
  • Reply 26 of 51
    bagmanbagman Posts: 349member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Netsynergy View Post


    I think if every smartphone manufacturer started today, the Microsoft phones would have a good chance of carving out a place in the marketplace even if only because of the Microsoft name and the strength of their Desktop OS and Office market share. But the problem is Microsoft and HP/Palm are not all starting off the same. The reality is they are behind and they have to play catch up. Now if this were Desktop OSes they still would be a viable threat. Because anyone could easily change OSes if they so desired. But we are dealing with smartphones with their required two or three year contracts. So even if someone wanted to switch over to a WP7 phone they would have to wait up to three years without having to pay a early termination penalty! That's why it made no sense spending all that money trying to market this phone in it's introduction. It's a waste on money. It would have been better to have spread out the money over the next few years instead. For anyone entering the market now it's going to be slow going before they see any significant gain assuming the current major players (Apple, Google) somehow lose their way over the next two or three years. Now tablets, that's another story...



    Did you used to post on the Motley Fool board in the late 90's? I knew a poster there who went by the name Maud'Dib. Welcome to the board!
  • Reply 27 of 51
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    I think what he meant is that it will take Microsoft a full 2 years to realise what we already know now.
  • Reply 28 of 51
    mgl323mgl323 Posts: 247member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Netsynergy View Post


    I think if every smartphone manufacturer started today, the Microsoft phones would have a good chance of carving out a place in the marketplace even if only because of the Microsoft name and the strength of their Desktop OS and Office market share. But the problem is Microsoft and HP/Palm are not all starting off the same. The reality is they are behind and they have to play catch up. Now if this were Desktop OSes they still would be a viable threat. Because anyone could easily change OSes if they so desired. But we are dealing with smartphones with their required two or three year contracts. So even if someone wanted to switch over to a WP7 phone they would have to wait up to three years without having to pay a early termination penalty! That's why it made no sense spending all that money trying to market this phone in it's introduction. It's a waste on money. It would have been better to have spread out the money over the next few years instead. For anyone entering the market now it's going to be slow going before they see any significant gain assuming the current major players (Apple, Google) somehow lose their way over the next two or three years. Now tablets, that's another story...



    One more thing...

    With AT&T (and probably Verizon once they are on board) usually allowing people to get the latest iPhone before their current contract runs out with little to no penalty, this creates an incentive to stay with the iPhone and not jump ship.



    The thing is, there's always new customers that are new to the smartphone world. They come from a messaging phone, feature phone, or just a plain old cell phone and they want a smartphone for their next purchase. There's always people that don't like Apple for whatever reason, tired of Android for some reason, and want something new other than their current OS when their current contract is up. It's obvious that WP7 has a slow start but who knows, they may just catch up to Apple and Google within the next 3-4 years. Time will tell.



    They say Microsoft is late to the party, but it's better to be late then to never go.
  • Reply 29 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shadash View Post


    I keep hearing that Google is innovative, but I don't really see it. Search is great. The rest is either a pale copy (Android), or worse.



    My thoughts precisely. Although I do like the fact Google are in the game. Keeps things interesting.
  • Reply 30 of 51
    aizmovaizmov Posts: 989member
    Assuming Apple stands still
  • Reply 31 of 51
    mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 1,876member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Sofabutt View Post


    Point being, this whole scenario has been played out time and time again. People get unhappy with the OS they have been using and look to something more contemporary, more capable, less stodgy.



    That happens because some of these companies get complacent and fail to advance. It is also because the carriers control who gets what updates on their phones, which leads to people getting tired of the "same old thing" and desperate for something new.



    Apple doesn't have that problem, they bypass the carriers and push updates directly to their end users. This allows the user experience to evolve over the life of the device, keeping it fresh. Apple also isn't a company that rests on its laurels. They constantly redesign and enhance products even those that are already market leaders.
  • Reply 32 of 51
    mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 1,876member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mgl323 View Post


    They say Microsoft is late to the party, but it's better to be late then to never go.



    The problem being, they're late to a party they already attended earlier; WinMo 6 went home for a while, changed clothes, and came back as WP7.



    I actually don't believe is much of an issue though. Mobile phone users are a traditionally fickle group, moving from one carrier to the next, constantly changing/upgrading their phones, etc. So there's always a chance that WP7 will get a decent share of the market. The same things being said about WP7 were also said about the iPhone when it was introduced.
  • Reply 33 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DocNo42 View Post


    Huh? based on what? Just because Apple is now a large company? That's a rather shallow and myopic vision.







    Point being, Unix has been around for decades and here I am typing on a machine that is running it at it's core.



    Apple is nothing like Microsoft and people don't randomly change operating systems for reasons such as they are "stodgy".



    Not sure where your delusion is coming from, but if you sincerely believe this then you should probably be prepared to be disappointed in "a couple years".





    I have to agree, it's human nature to think the grass is always greener. Someone will do an Apple to Apple, its inevitable. MAybe Nokia with Meego? Maybe someone else. The poster is right, this is cyclical, and you can quote Unix all you want, the next big OS may well be based upon it.



    People DO change about, just to try new things. If you asked all iPhone users are they tired of the interface how many would you think would say yes? A hell of a lot I would imagine.
  • Reply 34 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post


    That happens because some of these companies get complacent and fail to advance. It is also because the carriers control who gets what updates on their phones, which leads to people getting tired of the "same old thing" and desperate for something new.



    Apple doesn't have that problem, they bypass the carriers and push updates directly to their end users. This allows the user experience to evolve over the life of the device, keeping it fresh. Apple also isn't a company that rests on its laurels. They constantly redesign and enhance products even those that are already market leaders.



    But have they really kept it fresh? How many more iterations will they be able to get through before people grow tired of the rows of icons interface model?
  • Reply 35 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    "We wanted to get all the devices in the market, we didn't make that happen, but ... We've ramped our ads up."



    Microsoft still put all their faith in marketing and positioning with less attention paid to making a good product.
  • Reply 36 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    "We wanted to get all the devices in the market, we didn't make that happen, but ... We've ramped our ads up."



    I hope for Microsoft's sake the $500 million advertising budget stretches out. The fact that they have created a great product is only the first step. Getting user mind share when up against entrenched opponents is going to be half the battle.







    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Microsoft has reportedly blocked developers from seeing sales figures for their apps



    Sales statistics are available via Microsoft's app hub. I suppose that isn't as interesting as saying they are reportedly blocked.



    I've been informed previously that AI articles are based on the authors opinion though. So maybe the author formed the opinion they were reportedly blocked when they are actually available. I'm not sure.





    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Initial reviews of the platform were mixed. Most reviewers were impressed with Microsoft's new user interface, but found it lacking when compared to iOS and Android.



    Can you even say "I found it lacking" as a description of something? I suppose you can. It does seem strange though. I'm not sure I would use that in everyday conversation.



    Jack: Good morning Jill, how was your weekend?

    Jill: I found it lacking

    Jack: ...?



    Maybe the AI guys could say...

    Quote:

    Initial reviews of the platform were mixed. Most reviewers were impressed with Microsoft's new user interface, but some found it lacked key features that are available on iOS and Android such as copy & paste, multitasking and threaded email.



    That's makes a little more sense to me, but it still reads like crap though. I suppose that's why neither of us are professional journalists.
  • Reply 37 of 51
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bedouin View Post


    Mossberg eventually got an answer out of him, albeit unwillingly.



    Walt asks "2 years?" and Joe says "maybe". Dunno, I'm not putting too much validity behind the answer.

    I really think WM7's success is going to be a marketing story. There's a big enough market out there, perhaps they could muster third place eventually. Copying apple's strategy could work for them.
  • Reply 38 of 51
    Anyone who wants to pretend that Microsoft is lost in the mobile space needs to remember Windows 7 or XBOX 360.



    When XBOX was released, new users and critics both loved it, but it was considered a "Me, too" product and was largely ignored by the Internets and technorati. Over the last few years, XBOX 360 has become the first console many users consider and XBOX Live is considered the gold standard of multiplayer gaming and services offered on a gaming console. Now, XBOX 360 is on fire (again) thanks to Kinect which has extended the lifespan of the 360 hardware base and sold almost 3 million units in several weeks.



    The Windows 7 beta was released to rave reviews by users and many critics, but it was considered a big Service Pack to Windows Vista and largely discounted by the Internets and technorati. According to sales figures, Windows 7 sold 240 million copies in it's first year allowing Microsoft to bank record profits.



    Windows Phone 7 was reviewed by critics (and even technorati) and nearly every review was favorable. But, it has been considered a "Me, too" product and "too little, too late" to the mobile game.



    Knowing, of course, that Microsoft's failures are extremely high profile (and there have been many)...it's important to remember that when Microsoft DOES find success, they make an incredible amount of money that they can then sink into their next success/failure.



    In fact, don't EVER count Microsoft out of any space...especially one which they have garnered high praise. Anyone claiming that WP7 isn't good enough, knowing also that it's only going to get better and fast, is simply blinded by an anti-Microsoft stance or are attempting to drive web traffic to their blog dedicated to the products of a Microsoft competitor.



    I'm just sayin'...
  • Reply 39 of 51
    I bought the Win 7 phone to replace my iPhone 3GS (which is now relegated to iPod Touch status). Android did not really seem that great; everything seemed so kludgy. The Win 7 OS is NOT in any way kludgy and unless all the naysayers here have taken a few hours to use one, they have no idea what they ate talking about. The hardware (samsung and HTC) is well built, but not up to iPhone 4 standards. I am not worried that it doesn't have all of the features of the iPhone; I walked into the purchase aware if what I was buying and am quite happy. My biggest concern is not the phone OS, but Ballmer and the idiotic advertisements currently being run.



    Will this phone beat the iPhone? No. Can it carve a good portion of the marketshare for itself? Definitely...IF Microsoft doesn't let Baller screw it up. Let's hope for the best.
  • Reply 40 of 51
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,307member
    I suspect Ballmer has a large print out of the Aesop's Fable, "The tortoise and the hair" pinned up on the office noticeboard for morale. They are banking on Apple taking a nap ...
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