Panics have always pushed common recessions (recessions hit about once every 5-10 years on average) into depressions. As another poster pointed out, the US has not actually seen a shrinking economy, simply an economy that isn't growing as fast. Some people consider that as part of a recession, but a depression definitely has to stay in "negative growth" (i.e., shrinking) territory. That's not happening, and if we could just keep our heads and make the bad guys? play straight, we'll have little to worry about in terms of economic growth. Things are hard right now, but it's not that bad. You won't have to ask the question if it's that bad.
We're not in a Depression, but in my opinion stocks are still seriously overpriced and should go down even more. You can only defy reality for so long.
<strong>We're not in a Depression, but in my opinion stocks are still seriously overpriced and should go down even more. You can only defy reality for so long.</strong><hr></blockquote>
This is the honest truth many are afraid to hear. Good post! In the mid 90's, so many stocks and really the whole market rose at a rediculous rate because of new tech related innovations. Hell, it wasn't that long ago that the dow was between 2000-3000. We are just in a period of reality and stocks are coming back down to realistic levels and those companies that took advantage of the high priced stocks *cough* Worldcom */cough*and all those tech startups that had no real product *cough* Transmeta */cough* are now having trouble.
I remember after the tech burst some business magazine (sorry my memory is bad) posted a graph on The Dow Jones.
It showed that during the late 20th century, the Dow started to soar at a much higher angle than before, and only after the tech crash did the Dow Jones start to grow at more realistic levels.
Noooo. We are not in a drepression. Only because my parents lived through it and from what they told me, this ain't it now. Imagine homeless people wandering your cities, towns and neighborhoods and begging for scraps every day and night. Imagine absolutely no jobs at all. Businesses crumbling left and right and their CEOs, CFO's and investors leaping from buildings. My parents skimmed by pretty well during the original one. They had hard times but many of their rich friends lost everything and either committed suicide or died in obscurity. Even through all this, most people helped each other through those times. I think that if an economic depression of the that magnitude occured today there would be utter chaos.
Do a search on the web or go to a library and find the facts. I'm checking this <a href="http://econ161.berkeley.edu/TCEH/Slouch_Crash14.html"; target="_blank">one site</a> myself now. Look at this graph. When we repeat this, then you can call it a depression...
Yes. It was worse in parts of the mid 70's and late 80's what we had then was serial recession. We'd just get out and slide back into another after a few years. And of course the real thing in the early 30's which I don't think most people today understand how austere things are during that kind of slump.
Comments
[ 07-08-2002: Message edited by: BuonRotto ]</p>
<strong>We're not in a Depression, but in my opinion stocks are still seriously overpriced and should go down even more. You can only defy reality for so long.</strong><hr></blockquote>
This is the honest truth many are afraid to hear. Good post! In the mid 90's, so many stocks and really the whole market rose at a rediculous rate because of new tech related innovations. Hell, it wasn't that long ago that the dow was between 2000-3000. We are just in a period of reality and stocks are coming back down to realistic levels and those companies that took advantage of the high priced stocks *cough* Worldcom */cough*and all those tech startups that had no real product *cough* Transmeta */cough* are now having trouble.
[ 07-08-2002: Message edited by: G4Dude ]</p>
I remember after the tech burst some business magazine (sorry my memory is bad) posted a graph on The Dow Jones.
It showed that during the late 20th century, the Dow started to soar at a much higher angle than before, and only after the tech crash did the Dow Jones start to grow at more realistic levels.
Do a search on the web or go to a library and find the facts. I'm checking this <a href="http://econ161.berkeley.edu/TCEH/Slouch_Crash14.html"; target="_blank">one site</a> myself now. Look at this graph. When we repeat this, then you can call it a depression...
Keep moving people, onto other threads.
<strong>I already answered the question!
Keep moving people, onto other threads.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Groverat, super genius, wannabe moderator eats topic and moves on.
No, not even remotely close.
" Can it get worse? "
Yes. It was worse in parts of the mid 70's and late 80's what we had then was serial recession. We'd just get out and slide back into another after a few years. And of course the real thing in the early 30's which I don't think most people today understand how austere things are during that kind of slump.
[ 07-09-2002: Message edited by: jimmac ]</p>
<strong>
" Can it get worse? "
Yes. It was worse in parts of the mid 70's...</strong><hr></blockquote>
To illustrate: the Dow closed lower on December 31, 1979 than it did on December 31, 1969. The 70's were brutal.
[ 07-09-2002: Message edited by: spaceman_spiff ]</p>
<strong>
Groverat, super genius, wannabe moderator eats topic and moves on.
<img src="graemlins/lol.gif" border="0" alt="[Laughing]" /> <img src="graemlins/lol.gif" border="0" alt="[Laughing]" />
<img src="graemlins/lol.gif" border="0" alt="[Laughing]" /> <img src="graemlins/lol.gif" border="0" alt="[Laughing]" />
I was joking, but I love that picture and the caption. <img src="graemlins/lol.gif" border="0" alt="[Laughing]" />