I have yet to find a single stock analyst who is intelligent and provides suggestion for the interest of their client or investors before the curve. All of their information is stale and something any person who is a bit intelligent can deduce from the market and financial reports. This folks look out for their own pockets first before their clients and they move with the band wagon.
Anyway, even though James Cramer on CNBC might be loud and obnoxious, but he sticks with his recommendations (even if his recommendation is going down) and he more like the guy on the street. Sure, he had made bad calls, but overall he is the stock analyst for rest of us.
I hardly think so. Like their forecasts or not, they are basing them on information that most of us don't have at the ready. Few people crunch these numbers. As for Cramer, he's a TV performer, not an analyst. Sticking with a recommendation whether it was a good or bad call certainly does not inspire confidence.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mytdave
Wall Street... Damned if you do, damned if you don't...
"We don't recommend buying your stock because we don't think your product will do well against the competition, or the product is an unknown device we're not sure people will like, or your margins are too high to compete in a commodity market against millions of common-denominator products."
Fast forward...
"We don't recommend buying your stock because you have out-performed our expectations, and we don't think there is any more 'up' - you have reached our imaginary ceiling, plus you've told us your margins are going to drop as you build the most price competitive product in its segment, and because demand is so high, it's nearly impossible for you to build enough devices to gratify everyone instantly."
Not really. Morgan is still recommending AAPL. But is also true that a stock can overrun, in which case it makes perfect sense for analyst to say that it's gotten too expensive in the immediate term, if that's what they think. There's no ceiling, expressed or implied, imaginary or otherwise.
Wall Street... Damned if you do, damned if you don't...
"We don't recommend buying your stock because we don't think your product will do well against the competition, or the product is an unknown device we're not sure people will like, or your margins are too high to compete in a commodity market against millions of common-denominator products."
Fast forward...
"We don't recommend buying your stock because you have out-performed our expectations, and we don't think there is any more 'up' - you have reached our imaginary ceiling, plus you've told us your margins are going to drop as you build the most price competitive product in its segment, and because demand is so high, it's nearly impossible for you to build enough devices to gratify everyone instantly."
Dr. I hear what you say, but I don't completely agree. Yes, some of the good analyst (microscopically small amount) might not only look at the financial reports, but will look at all the other supporting information, such as flooding in China could hold some production line, etc. etc. and it's impact. But, most of them are using information that is provided and easily comprehensible by listening to their earlier calls or by just looking at the packed Apple Stores or watching people at any intersection and seeing how many of them are using Apple devices. Yes, Morgan Stanley has not removed AAPL from recommendation list, but this whole notion of removing from "Best Idea" list and the reason they mention are rather pathetic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss
I hardly think so. Like their forecasts or not, they are basing them on information that most of us don't have at the ready. Few people crunch these numbers. As for Cramer, he's a TV performer, not an analyst. Sticking with a recommendation whether it was a good or bad call certainly does not inspire confidence.
Not really. Morgan is still recommending AAPL. But is also true that a stock can overrun, in which case it makes perfect sense for analyst to say that it's gotten too expensive in the immediate term, if that's what they think. There's no ceiling, expressed or implied, imaginary or otherwise.
Dr. I hear what you say, but I don't completely agree. Yes, some of the good analyst (microscopically small amount) might not only look at the financial reports, but will look at all the other supporting information, such as flooding in China could hold some production line, etc. etc. and it's impact. But, most of them are using information that is provided and easily comprehensible by listening to their earlier calls or by just looking at the packed Apple Stores or watching people at any intersection and seeing how many of them are using Apple devices. Yes, Morgan Stanley has not removed AAPL from recommendation list, but this whole notion of removing from "Best Idea" list and the reason they mention are rather pathetic.
The "Best Idea" list is a gimmick. In fact most of the stock recommendation lists can be viewed as gimmicks, because they aren't comparable with each other in terms of the terminology or the criteria used. This kind of thing is of very little interest to investors. Of far more interest to me as an AAPL stockholder is the stock's serious underperformance over the last few weeks.
Why follow a brokerage house report for an analyst who blew it in the past?
At least it's better than Gartman's report of last Oct, saying that Apple innovates, designs and builds nothing. Too bad Gartman you missed out on Apple's gains; buy now for the future gain or shut up !
On 9/29.2008, Elmer DeWitt wrote:"In a survey of eight leading Apple analysts [in Sept. ,2007], Huberty was rated the "worst" based on her ability to estimate the company's quarterly sales."
On Nov. 5 of this year, SAI wrote:"Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty is becoming another bull on shares of Apple. In her "bull case" scenario, Apple ships 80 million iPhones and 40 million iPads in calendar 2011, driving its stock to $500 a share by next August. The key to Apple's future growth: China. The Chinese have a taste for "aspirational brands" like iPhones, iPods and iPads. Here "bear case" assumes 55 million iPhones and 25 million iPads."
Windows phone 7 is now here. The Apple hegemony is over...
I'm a huge supporter of the windows phone, but even I can't agree with that. Apples going to be leading the way for many years to come.
However when thinking long term I would think less about the success of the iPhone and more about the failure of Apple tv. Apple making a phone was easy, everyone was predicting for years that they could make an amazing phone. The question though is where do they go from here? TVs are the next obvious move but its not exactly high profits. A games consoles another idea but could they really beat Xbox and Playstation with there dedicated followers?
There's a lot of growth still needed in terms of profit to justify that share price, people are predicting they will do it, the question is though, how?
Comments
I have yet to find a single stock analyst who is intelligent and provides suggestion for the interest of their client or investors before the curve. All of their information is stale and something any person who is a bit intelligent can deduce from the market and financial reports. This folks look out for their own pockets first before their clients and they move with the band wagon.
Anyway, even though James Cramer on CNBC might be loud and obnoxious, but he sticks with his recommendations (even if his recommendation is going down) and he more like the guy on the street. Sure, he had made bad calls, but overall he is the stock analyst for rest of us.
I hardly think so. Like their forecasts or not, they are basing them on information that most of us don't have at the ready. Few people crunch these numbers. As for Cramer, he's a TV performer, not an analyst. Sticking with a recommendation whether it was a good or bad call certainly does not inspire confidence.
Wall Street... Damned if you do, damned if you don't...
"We don't recommend buying your stock because we don't think your product will do well against the competition, or the product is an unknown device we're not sure people will like, or your margins are too high to compete in a commodity market against millions of common-denominator products."
Fast forward...
"We don't recommend buying your stock because you have out-performed our expectations, and we don't think there is any more 'up' - you have reached our imaginary ceiling, plus you've told us your margins are going to drop as you build the most price competitive product in its segment, and because demand is so high, it's nearly impossible for you to build enough devices to gratify everyone instantly."
Not really. Morgan is still recommending AAPL. But is also true that a stock can overrun, in which case it makes perfect sense for analyst to say that it's gotten too expensive in the immediate term, if that's what they think. There's no ceiling, expressed or implied, imaginary or otherwise.
Wall Street... Damned if you do, damned if you don't...
"We don't recommend buying your stock because we don't think your product will do well against the competition, or the product is an unknown device we're not sure people will like, or your margins are too high to compete in a commodity market against millions of common-denominator products."
Fast forward...
"We don't recommend buying your stock because you have out-performed our expectations, and we don't think there is any more 'up' - you have reached our imaginary ceiling, plus you've told us your margins are going to drop as you build the most price competitive product in its segment, and because demand is so high, it's nearly impossible for you to build enough devices to gratify everyone instantly."
Love IT :-)
I hardly think so. Like their forecasts or not, they are basing them on information that most of us don't have at the ready. Few people crunch these numbers. As for Cramer, he's a TV performer, not an analyst. Sticking with a recommendation whether it was a good or bad call certainly does not inspire confidence.
Not really. Morgan is still recommending AAPL. But is also true that a stock can overrun, in which case it makes perfect sense for analyst to say that it's gotten too expensive in the immediate term, if that's what they think. There's no ceiling, expressed or implied, imaginary or otherwise.
Morgan Stanley hasn't been a "Best Idea" in decades!
Dr. I hear what you say, but I don't completely agree. Yes, some of the good analyst (microscopically small amount) might not only look at the financial reports, but will look at all the other supporting information, such as flooding in China could hold some production line, etc. etc. and it's impact. But, most of them are using information that is provided and easily comprehensible by listening to their earlier calls or by just looking at the packed Apple Stores or watching people at any intersection and seeing how many of them are using Apple devices. Yes, Morgan Stanley has not removed AAPL from recommendation list, but this whole notion of removing from "Best Idea" list and the reason they mention are rather pathetic.
The "Best Idea" list is a gimmick. In fact most of the stock recommendation lists can be viewed as gimmicks, because they aren't comparable with each other in terms of the terminology or the criteria used. This kind of thing is of very little interest to investors. Of far more interest to me as an AAPL stockholder is the stock's serious underperformance over the last few weeks.
At least it's better than Gartman's report of last Oct, saying that Apple innovates, designs and builds nothing. Too bad Gartman you missed out on Apple's gains; buy now for the future gain or shut up !
Isn?t she usually very incorrect able what to expect from Apple?
In a field comprised mostly of idiots, if she's not the worst she's certainly one of them: Worst Analyst on Apple Lowers Price Target
On Nov. 5 of this year, SAI wrote:"Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty is becoming another bull on shares of Apple. In her "bull case" scenario, Apple ships 80 million iPhones and 40 million iPads in calendar 2011, driving its stock to $500 a share by next August. The key to Apple's future growth: China. The Chinese have a taste for "aspirational brands" like iPhones, iPods and iPads. Here "bear case" assumes 55 million iPhones and 25 million iPads."
Windows phone 7 is now here. The Apple hegemony is over...
I'm a huge supporter of the windows phone, but even I can't agree with that. Apples going to be leading the way for many years to come.
However when thinking long term I would think less about the success of the iPhone and more about the failure of Apple tv. Apple making a phone was easy, everyone was predicting for years that they could make an amazing phone. The question though is where do they go from here? TVs are the next obvious move but its not exactly high profits. A games consoles another idea but could they really beat Xbox and Playstation with there dedicated followers?
There's a lot of growth still needed in terms of profit to justify that share price, people are predicting they will do it, the question is though, how?
Doesn't Morgan Stanley watch her?